Author Topic: [HAMR] Visualizing the OYTT  (Read 222266 times)

Fidgetbuzz

  • L sp MOON. 1st R sp MARS . At X SO sp STARS
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1175 on: 30 July, 2016, 09:25:03 am »
great to see the update .. MANY THANKS for your work .. much appreciated
I was an accountant until I discovered Audax !!

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1176 on: 06 August, 2016, 09:21:25 am »
Day 83 (Amanda Coker) / Day 218 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 63 (Alicia Searvogel):

Kajsa, after being back in the UK for a couple of weeks has been riding consistently around 85-100 miles per day building up a good buffer for her 50,000km target. Amanda has been slowly increasing her weekly total and now has passed Kajsa's annual distance so far. She has currently ridden 18,937 miles compared with Kajsa's 18,839. Alicia continues to knock out 100 miles per day in Little Rock but is shortly due to move her riding up to Wisconsin.






Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1177 on: 06 August, 2016, 09:33:30 am »
Thanks Jo!

Still my first point of call when coming on the forum. You're graphics and summaries are, as always, much appreciated.
Does not play well with others

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1178 on: 10 August, 2016, 08:38:10 am »
Day 87 (Amanda Coker) / Day 222 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 67 (Alicia Searvogel):

Kajsa keeps edging away from the Dovey line, currently 1194 miles ahead and with three centuries in the last five days. She should hit the 20,000 milestone in 9-10 days' time. Alicia has now moved to Wisconsin for her rides, as Kurt did in the hotter months. She maintains her consistent 100 miles per day target and is 1355 miles above the Dovey line.

Amanda has ridden at least 230 miles every day in the last 16 days, ever increasing her daily average. She should pass the 20,000 milestone tomorrow. Barring significant incidents (and bear in mind we have not yet hit Florida's peak hurricane season yet), I predict she will take the world record distance at least a full month before her year is up. Her average to date would see her pass Kurt around 13th April 2017 (32 days ahead) and achieve a total of about 83,350 miles. Her more recent average, which is around 233 miles per day, would see her pass Kurt on 8th April (37 days ahead) and hit a year's total of about 84,600 miles.


Fidgetbuzz

  • L sp MOON. 1st R sp MARS . At X SO sp STARS
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1179 on: 11 August, 2016, 11:15:38 am »
Great work .. and your analysis and summaries are much appreciated. THX
I was an accountant until I discovered Audax !!

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1180 on: 11 August, 2016, 12:25:38 pm »
Day 87 (Amanda Coker) / Day 222 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 67 (Alicia Searvogel):

Barring significant incidents (and bear in mind we have not yet hit Florida's peak hurricane season yet), I predict she will take the world record distance at least a full month before her year is up. Her average to date would see her pass Kurt around 13th April 2017 (32 days ahead) and achieve a total of about 83,350 miles. Her more recent average, which is around 233 miles per day, would see her pass Kurt on 8th April (37 days ahead) and hit a year's total of about 84,600 miles.

I certainly don't want to minimize what Amanda is doing now, but we have to accept that all record candidates until now have done shorter rides in January/February. Amanda has not yet passed through this difficult period of the year.Having said that, I wish her all the best!

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1181 on: 11 August, 2016, 01:01:50 pm »
Amanda posted a short ride due to storms, only 165 miles.
<i>Marmite slave</i>

Chris S

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1182 on: 11 August, 2016, 03:43:34 pm »
Amanda posted a short ride due to storms, only 165 miles.

Surely she's going to move elsewhere for the rainy (rainier) season?

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1183 on: 12 August, 2016, 07:40:39 am »
Day 89 (Amanda Coker) / Day 224 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 69 (Alicia Searvogel):

Kajsa has ridden a 98 and 85 miler in the last couple of days which puts her 1215 miles above the Dovey line – the furthest she has been ahead of Billie since she started. Only around 620 miles (lest than one PBP) to go until she passes 20,000. Alicia is building up a buffer over her target of 100 mpd and just reaches the 7000 milestone at the end of her ride along the western edge of Lake Michigan.
Amanda has been having some wet and windy weather of late but puts the previous day's storm behind her to complete another 230 mile day. It is notable that when her rides are disrupted by major weather events, she loses less distance than the setbacks that have affected other riders.






red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1184 on: 04 September, 2016, 11:55:30 am »
Day 112 (Amanda Coker) / Day 247 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 92 (Alicia Searvogel)

I wonder if NOAA have considered using Amanda as monitor of Florida extreme weather. Here's here progress to date. The unnamed tropical weather event around August 10th could be regarded as a Perfect Storm as it coincided with Amanda celebrating 20,000 miles.



Meanwhile Kajsa continues to make good progress with three centuries in the last three days. Alicia is well above the Dovey line but has struggled a little recently with a leg injury and travels away from Little Rock so is just behind her personal 100mpd target.





red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1185 on: 06 September, 2016, 07:36:32 am »
Day 114 (Amanda Coker) / Day 249 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 94 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 5 (Steve Abraham Month Record)

Big miles September. Kajsa and Alicia aim for at least 100mpd, Steve goes for the month record and Amanda continues her relentless push for a new world record. Kajsa squeezes in an interview with East Midlands Today between 100 miles from Grantham. Steve adds another 238 miles on a Fenland loop taking him 86 miles ahead of target. Alicia recovering from her leg injury still manages 102 Little Rock miles and Amanda does what Amanda does with another 241 miles of her Florida loops.


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1186 on: 08 September, 2016, 04:44:57 pm »
Kajsa's European footprint after 250 days of riding...


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1187 on: 08 September, 2016, 05:46:37 pm »
And Amanda's Flatwoods footprint after 25,000 miles of cycling


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1188 on: 08 September, 2016, 08:08:46 pm »
And Alicia's riding split between Little Rock Arkansas, Wisconsin and between


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1189 on: 10 September, 2016, 10:16:39 pm »
An update on the riders' annual Eddington numbers:


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1190 on: 11 September, 2016, 12:55:17 am »
And again, Amanda's remarkable consistency shows through.

Eddington number: 117
Days ridden: 118

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1191 on: 11 September, 2016, 09:01:42 am »
Day 119 (Amanda Coker) / Day 254 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 99 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 10 (Steve Abraham Month Record)

Amanda keeps going with her 7th consecutive day of 240+ miles (is she perhaps sending a message to Steve and his month challenge?). Kajsa has been heading SW in the last few days riding in Gloucestershire with some YACFers. She dipped a little below 100 miles on one day but otherwise has managed 9 centuries in the first 10 days of September. Alicia has been going though a bit of a tougher time with a ongoing aches in her quads and some fatigue. Perhaps the same 100 day blues that also affected Kajsa earlier in the year. Steve is half way though the Flatlands 600 audax and is currently around 64 miles ahead of his month challenge target of 233mpd.


Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1192 on: 11 September, 2016, 09:52:27 am »
Day 119 (Amanda Coker) / Day 254 (Kajsa Tylen) / Day 99 (Alicia Searvogel) / Day 10 (Steve Abraham Month Record)

Amanda keeps going with her 7th consecutive day of 240+ miles (is she perhaps sending a message to Steve and his month challenge?).
It's hurricane season where she is riding and she's had to take one 'rest' day of 50 miles due to weather. I suspect she is banking extra miles on every day of good weather when her body is feeling up to it.
<i>Marmite slave</i>

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1193 on: 11 September, 2016, 11:38:12 am »
Many Jo for all your excellent work  - much appreciated

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1194 on: 11 September, 2016, 11:43:25 am »
MrCharly, you may be right. I am sure that all riders think about banking miles when the going is good to make up for those rainy days. However, I know Amanda is well aware of Steve's month challenge and I was conscious that she does seem to have switched from averaging just below Steve's target to just above it since he started on September 2nd (Steve's target of 233 miles per day in red, Amanda's daily mileage in purple):


red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1195 on: 12 September, 2016, 06:33:02 am »
I think the competition between Amanda and Steve enlivens the challenge. After all it is quite likely that Amanda will take the world record by some margin and that Steve will be the most likely person to threaten that record next year.

Since Steve started his month record attempt, he has averaged 241 miles per day. Amanda has managed 237 mpd over the same period and 240 mpd if you exclude 2nd September with the tail of Hurricane Hermine. Even though Amanda's September total won't be an official record, I have no doubt that they are both sizing each other up this month.

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1196 on: 12 September, 2016, 06:50:41 am »
Jo, I am continually thankful for the work you have put into to showing in an easy format the endeavours of all the cyclists over some considerable period of time now, I pop in everyday hoping you've found time to produce an update.

I have a question though, which basically stems from my lack of understanding of the "Eddington Number", but can you explain how the graph showing it should be read? I'm struggling to make any meaning out of it.

Ian

red marley

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1197 on: 12 September, 2016, 07:32:43 am »
An Eddington Number E is the largest value where a cyclist has ridden E days of at least E miles. For example over your lifetime you might have ridden over 120 miles in a day on 120 separate occasions. One of its characteristics is that larger Eddington numbers are much much harder to achieve than slightly smaller ones (moving from E=120 to E=121 isn't just about riding one extra day at 121 miles, but ensuring you have 121 days where you have ridden at least 121 miles). For the OYTT challengers, I have been recording not the lifetime Eddington numbers, but their annual ones, for which larger numbers are harder still to achieve.

The Eddington chart shows the frequency of ride lengths for each rider. So for example, following Amanda's purple line from left to right shows that she has ridden at least 5, 10, 15...50 miles on 118 occasions (the vertical position of the line). It dips down by one ride at the 55 mile mark indicating that on 117 days she has ridden at least 55, 60, 65...160 miles. It then dips downward indicating that she had ridden progressively fewer days with longer rides with only a couple of days when she has ridden 260 miles or so.

The Eddington number can be found on the chart by looking along the diagonal line where the value on the horizontal axis (distance) is equal to the value on the vertical axis (number of days). Where the frequency line intersects that diagonal, the Eddington number is highlighted with a small circle.

The shape of the line for each rider gives an indication of how their Eddington number is likely to change in the future. Amanda's purple line shows that her E is limited simply by the number of days she has ridden so far. For every extra day she rides at the current rate she is likely to increase her E by 1 until she hits around 230 days (because she has been riding at least 230 miles almost every day). In contrast, the steep fall off for Kajsa means that her rate of increase will be much less day by day (because she has already ridden more days than the number of miles in a typical day). She has to ride longer distances than she has been to move up that diagonal line. In fact that is precisely what she is doing this month, aiming to ride at least 100 miles per day, so we can expect her to hit E=100 in a couple of weeks.

Wowbagger

  • Former Sylph
    • Stuff mostly about weather
Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1198 on: 12 September, 2016, 05:25:10 pm »
If Steve and Amanda are indeed eyeing each other up, that's one hell of a 1000-yard stare.
Quote from: Dez
It doesn’t matter where you start. Just start.

Re: Visualizing the OYTT
« Reply #1199 on: 12 September, 2016, 10:02:46 pm »
Amanda's comment on Steve's ride 4 days ago (on Strava):
Quote
It's definitely cool to have a "riding partner" this month. ;) Keep up the good work!