Coronavirus and Audax

[Davef]

That is a cheaper option than buying a string of houses 4km apart.


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you're not allowed to use secondary residences (even if they are only 4km apart). You have to declare one address on your attestation and that's it. I think trying to dodge the issue in the current climate would give at least the "majoration" of 300€ and probably another offence somewhere along the line for perverting the course of justice or putting lives in danger. As various ministers have said, now is not the time for trying to be clever

Whereabouts are you ?
France, I assume.

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I was after something a bit more precise


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Probably 2km or less from his house...

Limoges.
I went back across the wood this morning with the bread. Not closed off but I had to share the path with 3 women walking their dogs. Given the width of the path it was a bit difficult to stay 1m apart so I tried to cross with a minimum of disturbance. One told me to be careful because cycling was banned (which it wasn't because &) it isn't on this path, although mopeds are, 2) I was exercising individually and in my "quartier", less than 2kms - probably less than 1km - from home and 3) I was on my way home after buying food). I don't suppose that she had her attestation and carte d'identité on her given the lack of pockets in her yoga pants but I wasn't going to stop to argue with her given the risk that she might be infected. If I go out that way I might well stick to the road after all - i would rather not run the risk of catching Covid-19 from a careless dog-walker. I take more care when I walk my dog!

Limoges is starting to get some cases now. I will have a better picture when my wife goes back to work in a couple of days; she is on réanimation (ICU to you).

Nearest I have visited will have been to futuroscope a couple of times when the children were children. Is it mainly Paris that is infected and then spreading out - or is it more random?


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[Hot Flatus]

Food for thought - FOR ALL.

Nope.

Its whataboutery from mattc 

[guidon]

Davef
No - over here it started in the outskirts of Paris (Oise) but then some clusters in the Alps( due to Brit skiing twonks) and then further around eastern France due to a massive religious meeting, oh and the Morbihan, to be just about all over. The worst areas are Alsace and Lorraine where the hospitals can no longer cope and are medivacing patients to areas where there are fewer incidents of covid19, like Bordeaux and Toulon...
The biggest problem here is the lack of testing - A month ago the wife and I both had a majority of symptoms but as it wasn't officially here (but in the next departement) we didn't have it, period....this was from the equivalent of the nhs helpline...A month on after being in isolation we still have the odd flare up of symptoms , sore throat, aching joints, cough etc.... it would be great to have the possibility of the antibody test, so we can stop worrying about getting it! Whilst the official figures show just over 11000 cases, the Health Minister estimates the true figure is 30 - 90,000 !!!!!!!!
As an aside Germany is interesting more cases than France but massively less in terms of deaths (and no confinement)....Anybody know why???

[mattc]

Food for thought - FOR ALL.

Nope.

Its whataboutery from mattc 

Actually I thought it was really dumb to drive a car-full of climbers from Surrey to Snowdonia, then go climbing with ropes and get rescued by helichopper etc.

This is pretty serious business, but if you want to have a pop at me instead of recognising that, crack on mate.

[Hot Flatus]

Bollocks, matt. It was whataboutery. That is why you posted it in the audax thread. If it wasnt then we would have seen you espousing caution towards riding.

 You are nothing if not predictable 

[mattc]

Bollocks, matt. It was whataboutery. That is why you posted it in the audax thread. If it wasnt then we would have seen you espousing caution towards riding.

 You are nothing if not predictable 

Why do I need to mention caution towards riding? It's obvious - just follow Gov guidelines. No need for James-style posturing, just get on with it. Riding is perfectly safe, just use common-sense with regard to COVID transmission.

Meanwhile, it's normal to criticise people who are being dicks. (it just so happens that these  folks are doing it without bikes). You don't have a monopoly on spotting dickish behaviour!

Do you see? It's pretty simple really.

I'm finding you as predictable as ever. Have you found something to get you away from the internet tomorrow?

[Genosse Brymbo]

.As an aside Germany is interesting more cases than France but massively less in terms of deaths (and no confinement)....Anybody know why???

The German death toll looks surprisingly low for the number of reported cases.  They may be at a different point in the spread of the disease and be measuring different things.  Nothing I've seen or read in the German media suggests citizens are behaving differently to other European populations and surely their healthcare system isn't that much better than Switzerland's, which is currently showing a  similar number of deaths on a third of the number of positive tests.  I suspect there are too many variables to be able to make a useful comparison.

[Martin]

Bollocks, matt. It was whataboutery. That is why you posted it in the audax thread. If it wasnt then we would have seen you espousing caution towards riding.

 You are nothing if not predictable 

I thought Matt's post was relevant; it was about diverting emergency services which IIRC is one reason why all AUK rides are also banned

I don't do POBI btw so only read it here. There is no Audax ATM so happy to read anything that's posted especially from those whose reasonable free everyday movement is being restricted

[Hot Flatus]

Well it would be if it had been made in good faith, which it wasnt.  Hence Matt's toys-out-of-pram rage at being exposed.

[Martin]

Well it would be if it had been made in good faith, which it wasnt.  Hence Matt's toys-out-of-pram rage at being exposed.

this is a public forum not a boxing ring

Thanks 

[Hot Flatus]

Ur welcum

[Ivo]

.As an aside Germany is interesting more cases than France but massively less in terms of deaths (and no confinement)....Anybody know why???

The German death toll looks surprisingly low for the number of reported cases.  They may be at a different point in the spread of the disease and be measuring different things.  Nothing I've seen or read in the German media suggests citizens are behaving differently to other European populations and surely their healthcare system isn't that much better than Switzerland's, which is currently showing a  similar number of deaths on a third of the number of positive tests.  I suspect there are too many variables to be able to make a useful comparison.

You could be mistaken for Switzerland: https://www.republik.ch/2020/03/20/die-zahl-der-todesfaelle-haben-wir-aus-wikipedia-entnommen?utm_source=pocket-newtab&fbclid=IwAR0oeuBfTim6y2139ZNgNIAXvy0hfnf9ZK_b9gwB57tbsRBpyley-yhaNcU

In short: The Swiss govt. institute for public health is so badly organised that they currently count the amount of corona cases by the weight of the faxes with reports since they are several days behind with data entrying everything manually ......

[Martin]

I'm surprised that McD's took 48 hrs to announce they are to close; why are they not classed as restaurants?

[Paul H]

I'm surprised that McD's took 48 hrs to announce they are to close; why ate they not classed as restaurants?

The takeaway and drive through stayed open.  The restaurants, if you want to call them that, were already closed, in some cases before it became compulsory.

[Cudzoziemiec]

.As an aside Germany is interesting more cases than France but massively less in terms of deaths (and no confinement)....Anybody know why???

The German death toll looks surprisingly low for the number of reported cases.  They may be at a different point in the spread of the disease and be measuring different things.  Nothing I've seen or read in the German media suggests citizens are behaving differently to other European populations and surely their healthcare system isn't that much better than Switzerland's, which is currently showing a  similar number of deaths on a third of the number of positive tests.  I suspect there are too many variables to be able to make a useful comparison.

You could be mistaken for Switzerland: https://www.republik.ch/2020/03/20/die-zahl-der-todesfaelle-haben-wir-aus-wikipedia-entnommen?utm_source=pocket-newtab&fbclid=IwAR0oeuBfTim6y2139ZNgNIAXvy0hfnf9ZK_b9gwB57tbsRBpyley-yhaNcU

In short: The Swiss govt. institute for public health is so badly organised that they currently count the amount of corona cases by the weight of the faxes with reports since they are several days behind with data entrying everything manually ......

Germany has banned meetings of more than 2 people.

[Genosse Brymbo]

You could be mistaken for Switzerland: https://www.republik.ch/2020/03/20/die-zahl-der-todesfaelle-haben-wir-aus-wikipedia-entnommen?utm_source=pocket-newtab&fbclid=IwAR0oeuBfTim6y2139ZNgNIAXvy0hfnf9ZK_b9gwB57tbsRBpyley-yhaNcU

In short: The Swiss govt. institute for public health is so badly organised that they currently count the amount of corona cases by the weight of the faxes with reports since they are several days behind with data entrying everything manually ......

Feck me, I didn't know whether to laugh or cry when reading that.  So not only does measurement of the various reported values differ, but the timeliness and accuracy of their reporting is also variable.  Only goes to reinforce the point that there are too many variables to make a useful comparison.  Danke auch fuer die Kurzfassung.

[mzjo]

Davef
No - over here it started in the outskirts of Paris (Oise) but then some clusters in the Alps( due to Brit skiing twonks) and then further around eastern France due to a massive religious meeting, oh and the Morbihan, to be just about all over. The worst areas are Alsace and Lorraine where the hospitals can no longer cope and are medivacing patients to areas where there are fewer incidents of covid19, like Bordeaux and Toulon...
The biggest problem here is the lack of testing - A month ago the wife and I both had a majority of symptoms but as it wasn't officially here (but in the next departement) we didn't have it, period....this was from the equivalent of the nhs helpline...A month on after being in isolation we still have the odd flare up of symptoms , sore throat, aching joints, cough etc.... it would be great to have the possibility of the antibody test, so we can stop worrying about getting it! Whilst the official figures show just over 11000 cases, the Health Minister estimates the true figure is 30 - 90,000 !!!!!!!!
As an aside Germany is interesting more cases than France but massively less in terms of deaths (and no confinement)....Anybody know why???

Morbihan probably got infected by parisians, like the Ile d'Oléron.

On a different and sadder note, France lost the first of its medical staff, a doctor, to Covid-19 today.

[Frank9755]

.As an aside Germany is interesting more cases than France but massively less in terms of deaths (and no confinement)....Anybody know why???

The German death toll looks surprisingly low for the number of reported cases.  They may be at a different point in the spread of the disease and be measuring different things.  Nothing I've seen or read in the German media suggests citizens are behaving differently to other European populations and surely their healthcare system isn't that much better than Switzerland's, which is currently showing a  similar number of deaths on a third of the number of positive tests.  I suspect there are too many variables to be able to make a useful comparison.

Germany is testing a lot more people so most likely it is identifying a larger proportion of infected people.  Also their health service has more capacity than ours, more ventilators, intensive care beds, etc. 

There are some other reasons to do with data collection but they don't sound like they are major. 

There was an article in the Guardian / Observer about it yesterday. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/germany-low-coronavirus-mortality-rate-puzzles-experts

What I find most interesting / puzzling about Germany is that Merkel is still saying she expects 70% of the population to get it, which would mean, even at low German death rates (which will go higher as health services get overwhelmed) a few hundred thousand deaths.  IE she still seems to be aiming for herd immunity. 

[Frank9755]

This is the most interesting, and positive, thing that I read over the weekend:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

It's long, but well worth reading, if you have nothing better to do. 

Summary is that, if we do the social distancing properly, the number of cases should come down, as in China.  We could then move to a model like Korea, based on test and trace but without social isolation - ie largely back to normal. 

That depends on government actions and policies, so not guaranteed - but sounds like it should be possible with the right resources, leadership and political will.

[Hot Flatus]

IE she still seems to be aiming for herd immunity.

I think it might be a bit more nuanced.

She's not aiming for herd immunity, she is just accepting that most people will get it sooner or later regardless of efforts. The key is to slow it up in order to buy time to cope.

[Frank9755]

Sure, she has never said anything like that was her aim in the way that our mob did, but 70% of the German population is about 60m people.  For them to get it over as long as a 5 year period is a million per month. Run even low, German death and severity rates and you get a horrible situation on an ongoing basis.   

The Chinese and the Koreans and others have not had anything approaching those levels of infection and have managed to bring things broadly under control.  Maybe she is just managing expectations, but I'm surprised that Europe is not aiming for similar.  If the Germans can't do it, with their greater medical resources, better political leadership, stronger state and more rule-obeying population, then we certainly can't.

[zigzag]

stats for the uk are looking ok so far, it's about time for the curve to either go sharply up (let's hope not) or carry on gently up and flatten between france's/s.korea's trendlines. in latter case there's hope that cycling events are reinstated mid-summer(ish).

[citoyen]

stats for the uk are looking ok so far

Depends how you interpret them. That graph only shows confirmed cases, and given the low level of testing in the UK, there's likely to be a significant discrepancy between that and the real number (anecdotally, my sister is now recovering from what was almost certainly Covid-19 but she wasn't tested - she may get retrospective antibody testing at some point but it's not a priority for the medical services in her area right now).

Germany looks like it's doing a lot worse, but they have much, much higher levels of testing than us. Also South Korea has very high levels of testing, which is one of the reasons it has been able to contain the spread relatively effectively.

Also the graph doesn't appear to be adjusted for population size, so doesn't make a meaningful comparison between us and the US.

[Cudzoziemiec]

I'd say that with the exception of South Korea, all those curves are pretty much the same once you allow for discrepancies of testing. SK's is a totally different shape.

[Hot Flatus]

stats for the uk are looking ok so far, it's about time for the curve to either go sharply up (let's hope not) or carry on gently up and flatten between france's/s.korea's trendlines. in latter case there's hope that cycling events are reinstated mid-summer(ish).

This graph does not tell you how "well countries are doing"

We have 5300 "cases" and 335 dead

Germany has 27500 "cases" but only 115 dead.

The difference is we have no idea how many cases we have. Not a clue. Because the only cases that are recorded are the ones who rock up in hospital.

If you want to know how well we are doing then compare the deaths, not the cases.

Be careful though, because our 335 deaths will be 1000 by this time next week.