Author Topic: [HAMR] Speculation (Read 15631 times)

caerau · « **Reply #50 on:** 30 March, 2015, 05:30:27 pm »

A colleague of mine is wearing bruises on his face and a sling today - he's a cyclist and has come off recently it seems - I told him about Steve and he stopped me mid-way - 'yeah, hit by a moped I heard'

Not an audaxer - but new has clearly got round.

The Seldom Killer · « **Reply #51 on:** 30 March, 2015, 05:41:30 pm »

Quote from: Wobbly John on 30 March, 2015, 03:32:08 pm

Update on Hoppo's FB page:

$:-\$

Hold on a second, what's that hanging down behind Steve?

Are you dripping morphine into his brew? Or have you connected him up to a sausage for recharging?

Ningishzidda · « **Reply #52 on:** 30 March, 2015, 05:43:11 pm »

OMG!

FOUR toes

They've amputated two.

woollypigs · « **Reply #53 on:** 30 March, 2015, 06:05:44 pm »

@Ningishzidda please send new keyboard PMSL

Datameister · « **Reply #54 on:** 30 March, 2015, 06:34:41 pm »

Quote from: Hillbilly on 30 March, 2015, 03:08:19 pm

followed by a dip off in Q2 ("bangers go off").

Mustard would be better.....dips are for McNuggets

Wowbagger · « **Reply #55 on:** 30 March, 2015, 06:59:04 pm »

That's the thing about Steve. He's such a nice guy he won't hold a grudge against the arsehole who did this. He'll just shrug and get on with the next bit of life. I do hope he has a sufficiently swift recovery to come out and have another go.

But of course, his miles to date will be posted by the UMCA as his age-group record on 31/12/2015 even if he doesn't ride again all year. He's a fit, strong guy so - not that I know anything at all about recuperation periods, other than what's been said on here - if he starts riding very gently again in June some time and builds himself up, he could still post a total in excess of 50000 miles. That would place him 3rd on the all-time British table.

Philip Whiteman · « **Reply #56 on:** 30 March, 2015, 08:07:24 pm »

I sincerely hope that Steve is able to make a further attempt at beating this record. However, we must collectively not place undue pressure on him. First of all, he needs to recover; secondly, he will need to consider whether he can afford the time for a further attempt. I rather suspect that he has a job to consider, bills to pay, etc. Any decision needs to be in his own time.

Pale Rider · « **Reply #57 on:** 30 March, 2015, 08:21:42 pm »

If there is to be a restart, I wonder if thought has been given to keeping Steve within the rules.

Alcohol is the obvious one, but there may be others.

Taking a break (no pun intended) is fine, as I understand it.

Hopefully hospital treatment and the linked prescription of medicine won't be a problem.

3peaker · « **Reply #58 on:** 30 March, 2015, 08:22:38 pm »

Quote from: Philip Whiteman on 30 March, 2015, 08:07:24 pm

I sincerely hope that Steve is able to make a further attempt at beating this record. However, we must collectively not place undue pressure on him. First of all, he needs to recover; secondly, he will need to consider whether he can afford the time for a further attempt. I rather suspect that he has a job to consider, bills to pay, etc. Any decision needs to be in his own time.

Back in 1971 I was knocked off my bike and, suffering a fractured scaphoid, successfully claimed loss of earnings from the errant driver. Steve’s case could be complicated if the total situation of being stopped 3mths into a 12mth (crowd-funded) project and starting all again or even identifying the value of the lost mileage from an injury-related restart. The potential for Steve to create a record shattering achievement is now in jeopardy and the residual acclaim/fame in question. What about the potential of a permanent injury (incomplete recovery) to an athlete in his physical prime? We need strong CTC insurance support to unravel the variables that might depend on what Steve is eventually able to achieve.

Such a pity to be discussing these consequences rather than glorying in a phenomenal backwind assisted ride, more especially with the welcome warmer, lighter weather.

Ningishzidda · « **Reply #59 on:** 30 March, 2015, 08:48:29 pm »

The moped rider's insurance company ought to see this as a publicity opportunity and put up some cash for Steve to restart and complete the 1YTT.

For heaven's sake, they spend enough on TV ads and motor racing.

"Get your 10% discount on a bicycle policy by quoting 'Steve 1YTT' "

Von Broad · « **Reply #60 on:** 30 March, 2015, 09:29:44 pm »

Quote from: Banjo on 30 March, 2015, 03:42:36 pm

Great to see him smiling.

what a man.

It's the same mentality that sees him shivering in a bus shelter in January after doing 700km on his own and drawing on resources to continue for another 300km....on his own!

Looking at small glass half full...he can enjoy PBP and take a break from it all

It may not be soon, but it may not be all over the Teethgrinder. He has years left in him yet.

If it wasn't for TG, none of this would be happening.

Wishing you good health and a speedy recovery Mr A.

sg37409 · « **Reply #61 on:** 30 March, 2015, 09:36:37 pm »

Quote from: Pale Rider on 30 March, 2015, 08:21:42 pm

If there is to be a restart, I wonder if thought has been given to keeping Steve within the rules.

If it were me, (fat chance, obv) but why even bother with UMCA. As others have noted, its pretty much open sourced. I dont see what UMCA bring to the party. There isnt really anyone who believes the guys are riding around on a moped or cloning their gpx files or whatever.

Canardly · « **Reply #62 on:** 30 March, 2015, 09:39:14 pm »

Independent verification old chap. A touch stone if you will.

aoxomoxoa · « **Reply #63 on:** 30 March, 2015, 09:40:31 pm »

Quote from: sg37409 on 30 March, 2015, 09:36:37 pm

Quote from: Pale Rider on 30 March, 2015, 08:21:42 pm
If there is to be a restart, I wonder if thought has been given to keeping Steve within the rules.

If it were me, (fat chance, obv) but why even bother with UMCA. As others have noted, its pretty much open sourced. I dont see what UMCA bring to the party. There isnt really anyone who believes the guys are riding around on a moped or cloning their gpx files or whatever.

Oops. Unfortunate example in the circumstances...

Peter · « **Reply #64 on:** 30 March, 2015, 09:43:52 pm »

Unfortunate avatar, too!

jefmcg · « **Reply #65 on:** 30 March, 2015, 10:09:07 pm »

I was playing around with some numbers a month or 2 back. According to http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN06224.pdf, for every billion cyclist kilometres, there are 21.7 fatalities, 646.0 KSI and 3,888.6 minor injuries. Steve's injury falls clearly into the last group. If my maths is right, someone doing 80,000 miles (128,000km) would have a 1 in 2 chance of a minor injury. I know in cycling somewhere between 30,000 & 40,000km I've had one broken bone.

Has Steve just tossed a coin with a 50% chance of this result?

(scarily, the KSI is a 1 in 12 chance of happening. That's why I didn't post these thoughts before.)

David Martin · « **Reply #66 on:** 30 March, 2015, 10:36:58 pm »

Your numbers may be correct at a population level. However the risk varies dramatically by cyclist type. For example, 'club cyclists' in the Netherlands, with their superior bike handling etc. have an accident rate per mile 35X higher than the average Grete on her sit up and beg.

We all like to think we are something special - some that we are specially dangerous, some that we are more careful than those no-light ninjas.

TimC · « **Reply #67 on:** 30 March, 2015, 10:44:28 pm »

Don't broken bones count as Serious in those statistical categories?

Canardly · « **Reply #68 on:** 30 March, 2015, 10:47:11 pm »

Cor damn speculators.........

jefmcg · « **Reply #69 on:** 30 March, 2015, 11:04:48 pm »

Quote from: TimC on 30 March, 2015, 10:44:28 pm

Don't broken bones count as Serious in those statistical categories?

You are right.

I kept googling for definitions of minor injuries, but I couldn't find it. But wikipedia has a definition of KSI

Quote

Serious injury: The definition is less clear-cut and may vary more over time and in different places. The UK definition covers injury resulting in a person being detained in hospital as an in-patient, in addition all injuries causing: fractures, concussion, internal injuries, crushings, burns (excluding friction burns), severe cuts, severe general shock which require medical treatment even if this does not result in a stay in hospital as an in-patient.

Not toss of the coin, but roll of the twelve sided nerd dice.

So I'm a KSI statistic for 2015? How exciting! Edit: no, I'm not. No car was involved, which means it doesn't count

thing1 · « **Reply #70 on:** 31 March, 2015, 05:41:48 am »

Quote

Steve says "Lucky these crutches come with cup holders!"

Great to see him still smiling. Is there BEER within said cup? Knowing that would answer all question.

Vince · « **Reply #71 on:** 31 March, 2015, 07:23:00 am »

I saw that picture on FB last night and my first thought was 'Does Steve own any shoes that don't have cleats?'

jamesld8 · « **Reply #72 on:** 31 March, 2015, 07:29:02 am »

Quote from: Philip Whiteman on 30 March, 2015, 08:07:24 pm

I sincerely hope that Steve is able to make a further attempt at beating this record. However, we must collectively not place undue pressure on him. First of all, he needs to recover; secondly, he will need to consider whether he can afford the time for a further attempt. I rather suspect that he has a job to consider, bills to pay, etc. Any decision needs to be in his own time.

+1 agree entirely, let Steve make up his own mind in his own time.

T42 · « **Reply #73 on:** 31 March, 2015, 07:29:36 am »

Quote from: Wowbagger on 30 March, 2015, 06:59:04 pm

But of course, his miles to date will be posted by the UMCA as his age-group record on 31/12/2015 even if he doesn't ride again all year. He's a fit, strong guy so - not that I know anything at all about recuperation periods, other than what's been said on here - if he starts riding very gently again in June some time and builds himself up, he could still post a total in excess of 50000 miles. That would place him 3rd on the all-time British table.

That makes good reading.

Wowbagger · « **Reply #74 on:** 31 March, 2015, 08:05:54 am »

The great thing about Steve is that he will make his own decision and won't succumb to pressure. He will no doubt read a lot of this stuff and take it with as much salt as is necessary and will make his own decision, supported by his excellent team. We are what the late Bobby Fischer described as "kibitzers" - moderately knowledgable bystanders discussing the possibilities when analysing a game of chess. We might come up with some interesting ideas, but it will be the grandmaster who makes the decisions.