Euromillions

[PrettyBoyTim]

The numbers 1 to 6 won't come up, ever. The numbers have to be random, and 1 to 6 is a pattern. The standard method of calculating the UK lottery gives something close to 1 in 14 million, but is actually around 1 in 12 million because there are two million patterns that can't come up - like 5,10,15,20,25,30 etc.

That's also why you mustn't use your birthday or the birthdays of your family. They're a pattern, see? The lottery only comes up with random numbers. Never use a number that means something to you.

[Eccentrica Gallumbits]

Maybe we should campaign to have the numbers changed for pictures of things instead - apples, shoes, bikes etc. It'd be impossible to form a pattern out of those and we'd all be millionaires! I get to go first because it was my idea.

[Martin]

And some of your £2 will go to cover great design like the dome

some of your £2 will go towards deserving causes; like a new Millenium village hall a few miles away from where I live. Unfortunately the village is predominantly Methodist and won't set foot in the place as it's funded by gambling 

[Bledlow]

The numbers 1 to 6 won't come up, ever. The numbers have to be random, and 1 to 6 is a pattern. The standard method of calculating the UK lottery gives something close to 1 in 14 million, but is actually around 1 in 12 million because there are two million patterns that can't come up - like 5,10,15,20,25,30 etc.

I thought it was called compression theory or something but maybe it is something else.

As an illustration - imagine a shotgun cartridge filled with six pellets. Fire it at a wall. Would you expect the holes to be a perfect line? It just ain't possible. There's some hyper smart maths and modelling behind all these lotteries.

Nope. It's random. That means apparent patterns can emerge. If the machine knew what ball was what, & could reject balls if they would produce patterns, then it wouldn't be random. I think it would also be illegal, since IIRC one of the conditions of the lottery franchise is that the method used to select numbers must be truly random, & not possible for the operators to influence. You are suggesting that they can, & do, influence it.

BTW, the shotgun analogy isn't valid. The dispersion of shotgun pellets isn't random.

[Jaded]

One of the first jackpots had several numbers that could be a date (or a sequence, I'll go check)

There were about 160 winners of the jackpot, so they all didn't get a lot of money!


Edit:

133 people selected the winning combination {7,17,23,32,38,42}

Maybe it was something to do with where the numbers are on the entry slip that made a pattern.

[Pedaldog.]

I'm desperate for a shedload of wonga.
Brother sprogs has bought 4 lucky dip tickets for the euro millions tonight. If we win it's a 50/50 split so we might get £2-00 or even more each!
Shouldn't you get your stake money back as well as the winas that is how betting normally works?

[tonycollinet]

I've been doing that since the UK lottery began. Each Saturday, I don't buy a ticket with the numbers 1-6. I'm hundreds of pounds up on the deal so far.

The numbers 1 to 6 won't come up, ever. The numbers have to be random, and 1 to 6 is a pattern. The standard method of calculating the UK lottery gives something close to 1 in 14 million, but is actually around 1 in 12 million because there are two million patterns that can't come up - like 5,10,15,20,25,30 etc.

I thought it was called compression theory or something but maybe it is something else.

As an illustration - imagine a shotgun cartridge filled with six pellets. Fire it at a wall. Would you expect the holes to be a perfect line? It just ain't possible. There's some hyper smart maths and modelling behind all these lotteries.

Please tell me you are taking the piss.

[Martin]

my numbers were the lowest 6 2 digit numbers of BR locomotive classes at the the time; I did wonder how many others I'd share a jackpot with

[JonBuoy]

I buy into the office lottery syndicate as a form of insurance.

Come the great day I want to be on the embankment across the road participating in the mass mooning rather than still sitting in the office as a spectator.

[hubner]

It's a tax on the mathematically challenged.

Yebbut if you're not in, you can't win 

The bit that gets me is that even though I know the chance of winning is 1:76,000,000 odd, I still think getting 2 tickets is a good idea  for big jackpots. Only 1:38,000,000 then 

Let's say the chance of winning is 1 in 76 million with one ticket, what are the chances with 2 or more tickets? OK I'm not a mathematician, but it seems to me  2 tickets should be 1 in 75,999,999, and 3 tickets is 1 in 75,999,998 and so on. Is this correct?

[Martin]

Let's say the chance of winning is 1 in 76 million with one ticket, what are the chances with 2 or more tickets? OK I'm not a mathematician, but it seems to me  2 tickets should be 1 in 75,999,999, and 3 tickets is 1 in 75,999,998 and so on. Is this correct?

taking it to a more managable number; no

if you throw a dice you have a 1/6 chance of hitting a 6, if you throw it twice it's 1/3.

By your argument if you bought 76 million tickets you'd be guaranteed of a win which is not the case

[border-rider]

1 ticket: 1/76,000,000
2 tickets: 1/76,000,000+1/75,999,999
3 tickets: 1/76,000,000+1/75,999,999+1/75,999,998

etc

[Martin]

1 ticket: 1/76,000,000
2 tickets: 1/76,000,000+1/75,999,999
3 tickets: 1/76,000,000+1/75,999,999+1/75,999,998

etc

Shirley 3 tickets= 1/76,000,000+1/76,000,000+1/76,000,000; you are not removing the losing tickets from the pool just because you have already drawn them once

[Sergeant Pluck]

My point, along with the rough maths, was intended to highlight the folly of thinking that getting two tickets vs one made any truly significant difference in the chance of a win.

[border-rider]

Assuming that you have 3 tickets with different numbers, and a fixed number of possible permutations, then each one that doesn't win reduces the pool of numbers that the winning number could still be.  

[border-rider]

My point, along with the rough maths, was intended to highlight the folly of thinking that getting two tickets vs one made any truly significant difference in the chance of a win.

It slightly more than doubles it

[Sergeant Pluck]

 

[Martin]

Assuming that you have 3 tickets with different numbers, and a fixed number of possible permutations, then each one that doesn't win reduces the pool of numbers that the winning number could still be.  

yes but in this lottery there can be any number of tickets with exactly the same numbers; and the actual drawn number is completely random each time; it's not like a tombola drum with a set number of raffle tickets in

SP your sums are spot on, but as you say it doesn't make it any more likely in real life even if it's statistically more likely

[border-rider]

yes but in this lottery there can be any number of tickets with exactly the same number

That just affects how big a share you get of the winnings; more than one person can have the winning number.  Different thing

and the actual drawn number is completely random each time; it's not like a tombola drum with a set number of raffle tickets in

In the end it's an n-digit number that is drawn.  It's always got the same number of permutations. (neglecting the prizes for smaller numbers of correct digits - I'm just talking about the headline win)

[hubner]

By your argument if you bought 76 million tickets you'd be guaranteed of a win which is not the case

But as there are 76 million possible combination of numbers (because the chance of winning is 1 in 76m), then if I buy 76m tickets each with a different combination of numbers, then I'd be guaranteed of a win.

[Martin]

By your argument if you bought 76 million tickets you'd be guaranteed of a win which is not the case

But as there are 76 million possible combination of numbers (because the chance of winning is 1 in 76m), then if I buy 76m tickets each with a different combination of numbers, then I'd be guaranteed of a win.

yes you would (although it would be a very time consuming way of breaking even even if you were the only winner); but if you bought them or chose them randomly you wouldn't.

going back to the three tickets; as the draw is only done once any of the three tickets has exactly the same chance of winning; by buying three tickets you are trebling the chance of any of your tickets being the correct comination; by buying 76 million you are making that chance even greater; but you are not going to get 76 million combinations in 76 million randomly bought tickets; that's why they have rollovers.

[hubner]

I would have thought any discussion about lottery tickets and probabilities would assume each (hypothetical) ticket has a different set of numbers.

Of course, in real life 76m ticket sold does not equal one guaranteed winner.

[Eccentrica Gallumbits]

But as there are 76 million possible combination of numbers (because the chance of winning is 1 in 76m), then if I buy 76m tickets each with a different combination of numbers, then I'd be guaranteed of a win.

Only if they included all the possible combinations. You'd be screwed if you bought 76m tickets that randomly all came out as 2 4 6 8 10 12.

yes you would (although it would be a very time consuming way of breaking even even if you were the only winner);

You'd do more than break even, would you not, because everyone else's payment would go towards your prize as well as what you'd spent?

[Cyclops]

By your argument if you bought 76 million tickets you'd be guaranteed of a win which is not the case

But as there are 76 million possible combination of numbers (because the chance of winning is 1 in 76m), then if I buy 76m tickets each with a different combination of numbers, then I'd be guaranteed of a win.

You'd be guaranteed a win but not necessarily a profit as there's no way of predicting how many other people will have bought tickets with the same winning numbers who you would have to share the jackpot with.

There's also the small matter of acquiring £76,000,000 to buy the tickets in the first place

[Jaded]

What you could do to make sure you won £76,000,000 is have your own lottery, and then only allow yourself to enter, and buy 76,000,000 unique tickets.

However, you'd better make sure that you were writing the rules too, as it would take a very, very long time to produce the winning ticket (unless it was Gordy's 1,2,3,4,5,6  )