Author Topic: Will we all end up getting covid?  (Read 3250 times)

Re: Will we all end up getting covid?
« Reply #75 on: 08 January, 2022, 09:32:11 am »
Last year there were reports that the 2m rule working because of droplets falling due to gravity was probably wrong because droplets actually broke up into smaller aerosol particles which didn't fall out.

Please note - friendly tone here. Not intending to appear a know-it-all (I certainly am not). Links sent for your comment and interest.
The studies run on Fugaku (worlds most powerful supercomputer) might interest you.
https://www.r-ccs.riken.jp/en/fugaku/research/covid-19/msg-en/

Also these videos produced by ANSYS engineers from CFD simulations
https://www.ansys.com/en-gb/covid-19-simulation-insights


Cudzoziemiec

  • Моя планета голубая, я люблю тебя и обнимаю
Re: Will we all end up getting covid?
« Reply #76 on: 11 January, 2022, 02:29:06 pm »
Humidity and proximity more important in infectivity of Covid virions than ventilation or temperature, study suggests. Simulation rather than field study, not yet peer reviewed, other conditions may apply, etc.
Graun
Riding a bike through a city is like navigating the collective neural pathways of a vast global mind.

Re: Will we all end up getting covid?
« Reply #77 on: 11 January, 2022, 02:49:15 pm »
Droplets= aerosol. The virus is expelled in a shower of aerosolised droplets which travel in a plume. The virus particles themselves are relatively poor at surviving on their own in a dry atmosphere or on a surface.
Hence why I do not bother with anything more than social hand care anymore.

There was a Wired article last year looking at where the medical teaching on aerosols v droplets and why the author/researchers believed it was wrong.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/

Kim

  • Timelord
Re: Will we all end up getting covid?
« Reply #78 on: 11 January, 2022, 06:20:16 pm »
Humidity and proximity more important in infectivity of Covid virions than ventilation or temperature, study suggests. Simulation rather than field study, not yet peer reviewed, other conditions may apply, etc.
Graun

Quote
When this was lower than 50% – similar to the relatively dry air found in many offices – the virus had lost half of its infectivity within 10 seconds, after which the decline was slower and more steady. At 90% humidity – roughly equivalent to a steam or shower room – the decline in infectivity was more gradual, with 52% of particles remaining infectious after five minutes, dropping to about 10% after 20 minutes.

It's a good thing we aren't currently experiencing BRITISH winter...  In the absence of full air conditioning, dehumidification goes pretty much hand in hand with ventilation.

Re: Will we all end up getting covid?
« Reply #79 on: 12 January, 2022, 09:37:24 pm »
There was a Wired article last year looking at where the medical teaching on aerosols v droplets and why the author/researchers believed it was wrong.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/

That was an interesting read - thank you for sharing that. It explains A LOT about why the CDC was so reluctant to talk aerosols even when all the case studies of airborne transmission were being published.

Cudzoziemiec

  • Моя планета голубая, я люблю тебя и обнимаю
Re: Will we all end up getting covid?
« Reply #80 on: 13 January, 2022, 12:28:15 pm »
100 microns is 0.1mm, visible to the naked eye. Makes sense when you think that you can see eg a cloud of dust hanging in the air, not settling.
Riding a bike through a city is like navigating the collective neural pathways of a vast global mind.

Re: Will we all end up getting covid?
« Reply #81 on: Yesterday at 11:39:57 am »
Personally, with what I know about disease control in animals, I would have had everything closed down as a firebreak weeks ago.

How would that have prevented covid becoming endemic?  It's so freaking transmissible a firebreak would have slowed transmission and reduced hospital admissions (by what percentage is unclear, but probably relatively minor according to data from South Africa - data which has been pointing this way for several weeks now).  But at what cost to the economy and people's other health (and mental health) problems?

All signs are that Omicron is indeed close to being endemic, but it's also far less dangerous than previous variants.  I'm no Johnson supporter but in this case (and probably for the first time since Feb 2020) I'm in agreement with the current English guidelines, whereas I think the Welsh & Scottish have over-reacted - possibly for political reasons (i.e. "we are more responsible than the Tories").

Well, it would appear that the Scottish & Welsh restrictions indeed made no difference to the infection rates in those countries.  In fact they are slightly higher over the same period. 

https://ourworldindata.org/local-covid-uk

But the measures will have had a disastrous effect on many people's lives and businesses.

When I posted this at the start of January I was told I was being "ignorant" and "selfish" (despite my having followed all the laws/guidelines religiously and taken part in the 1-year Novavax trial).

It seems some people are reluctant to accept data which doesn't agree with their entrenched viewpoint.
The sound of one pannier flapping

Re: Will we all end up getting covid?
« Reply #82 on: Yesterday at 02:19:29 pm »
Personally, with what I know about disease control in animals, I would have had everything closed down as a firebreak weeks ago.

How would that have prevented covid becoming endemic?  It's so freaking transmissible a firebreak would have slowed transmission and reduced hospital admissions (by what percentage is unclear, but probably relatively minor according to data from South Africa - data which has been pointing this way for several weeks now).  But at what cost to the economy and people's other health (and mental health) problems?

All signs are that Omicron is indeed close to being endemic, but it's also far less dangerous than previous variants.  I'm no Johnson supporter but in this case (and probably for the first time since Feb 2020) I'm in agreement with the current English guidelines, whereas I think the Welsh & Scottish have over-reacted - possibly for political reasons (i.e. "we are more responsible than the Tories").

Well, it would appear that the Scottish & Welsh restrictions indeed made no difference to the infection rates in those countries.  In fact they are slightly higher over the same period. 

https://ourworldindata.org/local-covid-uk

But the measures will have had a disastrous effect on many people's lives and businesses.

When I posted this at the start of January I was told I was being "ignorant" and "selfish" (despite my having followed all the laws/guidelines religiously and taken part in the 1-year Novavax trial).

It seems some people are reluctant to accept data which doesn't agree with their entrenched viewpoint.
Which one of the graphs shows that?

I'm pretty ignorant when it comes to stats, but on all of those graphs, the rise in cases is not as steep as England.

doesn't that indicate a slower increase rate?
<i>Marmite slave</i>

Cudzoziemiec

  • Моя планета голубая, я люблю тебя и обнимаю
Re: Will we all end up getting covid?
« Reply #83 on: Yesterday at 02:25:45 pm »
Presumably the second graph, "UK: Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000" which at its peak shows the rate for England below the rate for the UK, with the other nations above? At least, I'd guess so.
Riding a bike through a city is like navigating the collective neural pathways of a vast global mind.

Jaded

  • The Codfather
  • Formerly known as Jaded
Re: Will we all end up getting covid?
« Reply #84 on: Yesterday at 02:40:32 pm »
The ones at the bottom of the page, when showing as ‘Log’ seem to show Wales and Scotland in a better light on infections and hospitalisations.
If you don't like your democracy, vote against it.

Re: Will we all end up getting covid?
« Reply #85 on: Yesterday at 03:25:41 pm »
Presumably the second graph, "UK: Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000" which at its peak shows the rate for England below the rate for the UK, with the other nations above? At least, I'd guess so.

Indeed - thanks Cudz. The headline % infections  are from a large cohort and should be pretty accurate.  It was the infection rate that the various national measures were brought in to affect, but the Scottish & Welsh have suffered equal or higher % infection rates.

Hospitalisation/ventilation/death stats are fortunately far smaller numbers and open to more statistical anomalies, but even they don't show markedly higher levels in England.

I guess I'm just still smarting from being accused of being ignorant and selfish.  We all have different views and tend to interpret data selectively, but personal attacks are not necessary.
The sound of one pannier flapping

Re: Will we all end up getting covid?
« Reply #86 on: Yesterday at 05:08:21 pm »
Don't forget PCR tests were largely unobtanium over that period. With testing maxed-out we were flying blind in a lot of ways.

From the top of the second chart:
Quote
The number of confirmed cases is lower than the number of actual cases; the main reason for that is limited testing

Wales and Northern Ireland also count reinfections in their cases stats, which is significant where infections are dominated by a virus that is able to evade immunity from prior infection and vaccines (10-15% of cases reinfections at the moment).

Once data becomes more reliable, it's probably area under the line you want to be paying attention to rather than maximum values. Also rate of change, as someone mentioned up-thread: case numbers for Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are all coming down at a faster rate than for England.

For anyone wanting to check their understanding of 'endemic' the latest Indie SAGE briefing had a segment exploring the definition, the different ways that might manifest and why it's probably not a state to aspire to. Also bonus explainers on apparent/inherent severity and why Omicron isn't Delta evolving to be less severe. Starts here: https://youtu.be/HX5G26t-AVE?t=1014

There's also a nice comparison between case rates in London and other English regions and some discussion about how London's head start with omicron gave time for behaviour modification before Christmas and much lower case numbers than elsewhere where omicron arrived much closer to Christmas: https://youtu.be/HX5G26t-AVE?t=368





I'm starting to hear people talking about partners dying by suicide after prolonged suffering with long covid, and yesterday I spent time listening to a security guard talking about how his mum died after just giving up because of the isolation she was experiencing. There is so much that's not getting represented in charts of case numbers. So sad.