Will we all end up getting covid?

[Cudzoziemiec]

There are other virii in the coronavirus family, but also "The common cold" actually covers a number of different virii, some are are in the corona family, others are rhinoviruses.

No. No, no, no. The plural of virus is viruses. If you're going to insist on faux-Latin endings, at least be consistent and use rhinovirii.

[quixoticgeek]

There are other virii in the coronavirus family, but also "The common cold" actually covers a number of different virii, some are are in the corona family, others are rhinoviruses.

No. No, no, no. The plural of virus is viruses. If you're going to insist on faux-Latin endings, at least be consistent and use rhinovirii.

I couldn't remember which it was, so just threw both in, on the basis one of them will be right...

J

[rogerzilla]

Most common colds are rhinoviruses but there are four coronaviruses that only cause cold symptoms, and have been circulating for years.

The other known human coronaviruses are:

The original SARS (more lethal, thought to be extinct)
Covid
MERS (much more lethal but not widespread)

The last three all probably came from bats.  Bats have a bizarre immune system and can incubate viruses while not being affected by them.

[Lightning Phil]

I read about the Bat immune system somewhere.  Apparently their metabolism is so fast, that viruses don’t get a chance to cause disease.   The viruses are moving in slow motion whilst getting battered by the Bat armoury .

[giropaul]

I suspect that we are virtually at the point of no return. The messaging from the Government (=Johnson) is so vague and imprecise that a big percentage of the population are convincing themselves that whatever they want to do will be alright.
Last week there was a funeral in the village I live in. A wake in the (rather small) pub followed. Publican and about 30+ people have Covid.
Because the pub is closed some village residents have been investigating a local venue for a New Years Eve celebration.
They’ll still all tell you that they’re being careful and responsible.
Nearby is Uttoxeter. In today’s Times is a photo of a packed crowd at the races. Apparently people had to have a negative test to get in ( I suggest that that is just a “I’ve done the test guv”) and are advised to wear masks. Not one single mask in the photo.
Personally, with what I know about disease control in animals, I would have had everything closed down as a firebreak weeks ago.
It seems to me that the AvianFlu is being more systematically controlled than Covid.
Therefore, in answer to the question, I think Covid is close to becoming endemic, and we will be living with the consequences.

[chrisbainbridge]

Just one point about LFTs. They are good for population screening as they are simple and easy to perform.
They are less sensitive than PCR. That is they will detect very accurately a high viral load (someone very infectious) but may miss someone just starting the disease or at the end. They are highly specific though and do not respond to anything else.

The PCR test is much more sensitive and will pick up even very small amounts of virus left beyond after infection has finished. Excellent for diagnosis but expensive and not suitable for daily testing.

[Shuggie]

Quite a useful graphic I think which shows the difference between PCR, LFT and viral load over time.



Cheers, Hugh

[fd3]

1) If you have any symptoms including snotty nose, sore throat and significant headache you need a PCR as lateral flows are for screening asymptomatic people and are unreliable in symptomatic people.

I think this will be a big issue as the govt has been selling the message of doing lat flows and not pcrs.  I think 90+% of the population willn ot realise they will need a PCR whenever they have a cold and won't isolate for cold symptoms (whether they can get a pcr or not)

[toontra]

Personally, with what I know about disease control in animals, I would have had everything closed down as a firebreak weeks ago.

How would that have prevented covid becoming endemic?  It's so freaking transmissible a firebreak would have slowed transmission and reduced hospital admissions (by what percentage is unclear, but probably relatively minor according to data from South Africa - data which has been pointing this way for several weeks now).  But at what cost to the economy and people's other health (and mental health) problems?

All signs are that Omicron is indeed close to being endemic, but it's also far less dangerous than previous variants.  I'm no Johnson supporter but in this case (and probably for the first time since Feb 2020) I'm in agreement with the current English guidelines, whereas I think the Welsh & Scottish have over-reacted - possibly for political reasons (i.e. "we are more responsible than the Tories").

[Kim]

This is concerning: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59848160

Are they not quarantining people before shipping them to Antarctica?  Seems unwise...

[ElyDave]

This is concerning: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59848160

Are they not quarantining people before shipping them to Antarctica?  Seems unwise...

I read somewhere that the BAS was quarrantining in South America before shipping people out, but that may not necessarily be 100% effective of course

[ElyDave]

A study of NHS staff found some of them didn't seem to be able to catch Covid at all.  There is a hypothesis that this is due to exposure to previous coronaviruses,leaving a strong T-cell response which clears the virus before there is enough of it to be detectable in a test.  Some of them tested negative throughout but had raised T-cell activity.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03110-4

Interesting, does that mean that people like me, type 1 diabetic, caused by rogue t-cells could also be less likely to catch it?  I've been extremely cautious on the basis of potential complications.

[barakta]

1) If you have any symptoms including snotty nose, sore throat and significant headache you need a PCR as lateral flows are for screening asymptomatic people and are unreliable in symptomatic people.

I think this will be a big issue as the govt has been selling the message of doing lat flows and not pcrs.  I think 90+% of the population willn ot realise they will need a PCR whenever they have a cold and won't isolate for cold symptoms (whether they can get a pcr or not)

A combo of ignorance about need for PCR and UKGov exacerbated attitude of it being cool not to care. Also many people who would be willing, can't do so because financially they get crap or not support.

All the medics I know are frustrated that they're talking to patient after patient who claims "I don't need a PCR test" or "I can't have Covid" while very likely having Covid and putting the medic and other patients at risk. Even screening carefully for face to face medicking, people who are ignorant/confused/dishonest are slipping through.

[barakta]

All signs are that Omicron is indeed close to being endemic, but it's also far less dangerous than previous variants.  I'm no Johnson supporter but in this case (and probably for the first time since Feb 2020) I'm in agreement with the current English guidelines, whereas I think the Welsh & Scottish have over-reacted - possibly for political reasons (i.e. "we are more responsible than the Tories").

Say that to the people who can't access multi-times delayed medical treatment because 25000 Covid patients has delayed 6 million planned surgeries. Many of those people will have poorer outcomes or die because of the delays.

Say that to the people whose A&E is saying "only life or death care available" and GPs are overwhelmed or shut down cos so many staff have Covid as well as increased demand.

Say that to the people vulnerable to Covid who can't access PCR testing in time or the emergency treatment because the referral system has overloaded and sends them round and round NHS111 circles of hell.

We didn't need a hard lockdown, but we could have had more people working from home, avoided larger spreader events, supported people to stay home if infectious and slowed it down a lot. We didn't need to ditch mask wearing, or make it so "cool" to be anti-mask that most places where masks are mandatory WON'T enforce it because their staff get so much abuse. Thanks to that, I won't even trust the places I should be able to trust because PEOPLE ARE SELFISH CUNTS and I can't expect low paid retail/transport staff to get abuse for enforcement.

I honestly think this post is ignorant and selfish.

[TPMB12]

SARS and MERS I thought referred to respiratory syndrome and where it first appeared namely Sout Asia and Middle East. If COVID 19 appeared in middle east the virus author be a MERS denomination. The other n letters mean something too but I forget what.

I got told as a kid that if you were in your bed and a £50 note blew into your window if you could get it before your sister picked it up then it's not a flu. I have never had flu as even my worst cold I could get any £50 note that came near me!!!

I must admit I've had a few colds that caused me to pass out despite being slumped in a chair or lying in bed. Not sure what that was about. My worst cold perforated an eardrum but within 3 days  of getting antibiotics I felt so much better and walked 50 miles in 16 hours. Passing out to about 80% in less than 4 days was a weird end to a nasty cold.

So do people think we'll get a new vaccine booster every season for the current pandemic virus and end the lockdowns or restrictions? I think the pandemic will only become endemic when the world has been double vaccinated with relevant boosters. The more with the vaccinations the less places of the world acting as a breeding ground for mutations. I think it's time the developed world stop using vaccine diplomacy and actually vaccinate the world properly.

[Jaded]

All signs are that Omicron is indeed close to being endemic, but it's also far less dangerous than previous variants.  I'm no Johnson supporter but in this case (and probably for the first time since Feb 2020) I'm in agreement with the current English guidelines, whereas I think the Welsh & Scottish have over-reacted - possibly for political reasons (i.e. "we are more responsible than the Tories").

Say that to the people who can't access multi-times delayed medical treatment because 25000 Covid patients has delayed 6 million planned surgeries. Many of those people will have poorer outcomes or die because of the delays.

Say that to the people whose A&E is saying "only life or death care available" and GPs are overwhelmed or shut down cos so many staff have Covid as well as increased demand.

Say that to the people vulnerable to Covid who can't access PCR testing in time or the emergency treatment because the referral system has overloaded and sends them round and round NHS111 circles of hell.

We didn't need a hard lockdown, but we could have had more people working from home, avoided larger spreader events, supported people to stay home if infectious and slowed it down a lot. We didn't need to ditch mask wearing, or make it so "cool" to be anti-mask that most places where masks are mandatory WON'T enforce it because their staff get so much abuse. Thanks to that, I won't even trust the places I should be able to trust because PEOPLE ARE SELFISH CUNTS and I can't expect low paid retail/transport staff to get abuse for enforcement.

I honestly think this post is ignorant and selfish.

I think the problem is that there is a growing swell of “get over it, its not serious” when of course, it is still serious. We are where we are because  of the vaccines, and at the moment, they appear to be working.

[Cudzoziemiec]

That works both ways in sentiment though, as there are plenty of people saying "It's time to open everything up again so that eg my granny can get her hip replacement".

[toontra]

All signs are that Omicron is indeed close to being endemic, but it's also far less dangerous than previous variants.  I'm no Johnson supporter but in this case (and probably for the first time since Feb 2020) I'm in agreement with the current English guidelines, whereas I think the Welsh & Scottish have over-reacted - possibly for political reasons (i.e. "we are more responsible than the Tories").

Say that to the people who can't access multi-times delayed medical treatment because 25000 Covid patients has delayed 6 million planned surgeries. Many of those people will have poorer outcomes or die because of the delays.

Say that to the people whose A&E is saying "only life or death care available" and GPs are overwhelmed or shut down cos so many staff have Covid as well as increased demand.

Say that to the people vulnerable to Covid who can't access PCR testing in time or the emergency treatment because the referral system has overloaded and sends them round and round NHS111 circles of hell.

We didn't need a hard lockdown, but we could have had more people working from home, avoided larger spreader events, supported people to stay home if infectious and slowed it down a lot. We didn't need to ditch mask wearing, or make it so "cool" to be anti-mask that most places where masks are mandatory WON'T enforce it because their staff get so much abuse. Thanks to that, I won't even trust the places I should be able to trust because PEOPLE ARE SELFISH CUNTS and I can't expect low paid retail/transport staff to get abuse for enforcement.

I honestly think this post is ignorant and selfish.

You are entitled to your opinion. No need to be so rude. People can have other opinions you know - should they be shouted down and insulted?

I notice you didn't include the first half of my post in the quote - you know, the bit that gave the reasoning for my conclusion.

[Cudzoziemiec]

There are other virii in the coronavirus family, but also "The common cold" actually covers a number of different virii, some are are in the corona family, others are rhinoviruses.

No. No, no, no. The plural of virus is viruses. If you're going to insist on faux-Latin endings, at least be consistent and use rhinovirii.

I couldn't remember which it was, so just threw both in, on the basis one of them will be right...

J

One of three ain't bad, to quote Meatloaf (no again). So strictly speaking it's no, no, yes. 

[chrisbainbridge]

1) If you have any symptoms including snotty nose, sore throat and significant headache you need a PCR as lateral flows are for screening asymptomatic people and are unreliable in symptomatic people.

I think this will be a big issue as the govt has been selling the message of doing lat flows and not pcrs.  I think 90+% of the population willn ot realise they will need a PCR whenever they have a cold and won't isolate for cold symptoms (whether they can get a pcr or not)

I was gently trying to make the point that barakta’s friend is incorrect and has made the wrong conclusion from the evidence. LFTs are very good at diagnosing symptomatic people.

[Peter]

There are other virii in the coronavirus family, but also "The common cold" actually covers a number of different virii, some are are in the corona family, others are rhinoviruses.

No. No, no, no. The plural of virus is viruses. If you're going to insist on faux-Latin endings, at least be consistent and use rhinovirii.

as I understand it, virus is neuter in Lat. so it' plural would be vira.  Even if it wasn't, the plural would probably be viri - don't know where the extra i is coming from, unless it's from trying too hard.  Viruses is much better - and no, that shouldn't be ARE much better!  We need to pick our nits more carefully!

[quixoticgeek]

SARS and MERS I thought referred to respiratory syndrome and where it first appeared namely Sout Asia and Middle East. If COVID 19 appeared in middle east the virus author be a MERS denomination. The other n letters mean something too but I forget what.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome. And Middle East Respiratory Syndrome.

J

[rafletcher]

1) If you have any symptoms including snotty nose, sore throat and significant headache you need a PCR as lateral flows are for screening asymptomatic people and are unreliable in symptomatic people.

I think this will be a big issue as the govt has been selling the message of doing lat flows and not pcrs.  I think 90+% of the population willn ot realise they will need a PCR whenever they have a cold and won't isolate for cold symptoms (whether they can get a pcr or not)

I was gently trying to make the point that barakta’s friend is incorrect and has made the wrong conclusion from the evidence. LFTs are very good at diagnosing symptomatic people.

Which is what the graph upthread indicates also.

[TheLurker]

Shades of "Dont' Look Up".  Thousands of people are dying around the world every day because of CV19 and here we are arguing about the plural form of a word.  Homo sapiens?  I do wonder about that.

[Andrew Br]

All signs are that Omicron is indeed close to being endemic, but it's also far less dangerous than previous variants.  I'm no Johnson supporter but in this case (and probably for the first time since Feb 2020) I'm in agreement with the current English guidelines, whereas I think the Welsh & Scottish have over-reacted - possibly for political reasons (i.e. "we are more responsible than the Tories").

Say that to the people who can't access multi-times delayed medical treatment because 25000 Covid patients has delayed 6 million planned surgeries. Many of those people will have poorer outcomes or die because of the delays.

Say that to the people whose A&E is saying "only life or death care available" and GPs are overwhelmed or shut down cos so many staff have Covid as well as increased demand.

Say that to the people vulnerable to Covid who can't access PCR testing in time or the emergency treatment because the referral system has overloaded and sends them round and round NHS111 circles of hell.

We didn't need a hard lockdown, but we could have had more people working from home, avoided larger spreader events, supported people to stay home if infectious and slowed it down a lot. We didn't need to ditch mask wearing, or make it so "cool" to be anti-mask that most places where masks are mandatory WON'T enforce it because their staff get so much abuse. Thanks to that, I won't even trust the places I should be able to trust because PEOPLE ARE SELFISH CUNTS and I can't expect low paid retail/transport staff to get abuse for enforcement.

I honestly think this post is ignorant and selfish.

I'm largely in agreement with barakta but I can understand where you're coming from toontra.
It does look like that Boorish Johnson may have been bullied into something approaching a reasonable decision (that's how it will be enthusiastically spun by the right wing press) for the wrong reasons: basically, fingers crossed and hope it's not going to be too bad even though there isn't enough data to help decide either way. The Economy !!!!!!*
I can't begin to hope that he or, more pertinently, the CRG are wrong because that will mean lots of seriously ill/dead people.
Seeing the rate of increase in infections and, from what is also being reported, the increase in hospitalisations I do fear the worse.

I've just upgraded my mask wearing. I've always done it but I'm now going to wear FFP3 standard when I'm shopping/ordering a drink to take outside**. For customer visits (if they're still allowed January onwards) I'll turn up as I have done with a mask on and take it from there. Cheeringly, all my recent indoor meetings have been in large rooms, windows open sitting apart or I've been looking at production kit in very draughty factories***. My company have given me carte blanche to refuse to go somewhere that I reckon isn't safe or to even stop travelling if I think that's best.
Ultimately I think we're all going to get this virus; let's just hope it's an understood/recognised variant and not a mutation that is as transmissible as Micron but has more serious consequences.
Let's also hope that Micron doesn't run rife in the vulnerable (as referenced by barakta) and the unvaccinated.
I've very little sympathy for the intentionally non-vaccinated but they are really going to clog up the NHS and stop "more deserving" cases getting treatment if/when they start getting ill.

*I still struggle to understand why the loons in the Govt CRG don't realise that stopping spread as soon as possible (go early, go hard, go wider) means that the subsequent recovery will be quicker and less economically damaging.
**Still going to the pub (under constant review; beer in the park may make a comeback), no way I'll sit inside.
*** Not ideal for processing polyurethanes but I'll take it for now  .