Will we all end up getting covid?

[ScumOfTheRoad]

Last year there were reports that the 2m rule working because of droplets falling due to gravity was probably wrong because droplets actually broke up into smaller aerosol particles which didn't fall out.

Please note - friendly tone here. Not intending to appear a know-it-all (I certainly am not). Links sent for your comment and interest.
The studies run on Fugaku (worlds most powerful supercomputer) might interest you.
https://www.r-ccs.riken.jp/en/fugaku/research/covid-19/msg-en/

Also these videos produced by ANSYS engineers from CFD simulations
https://www.ansys.com/en-gb/covid-19-simulation-insights

[Cudzoziemiec]

Humidity and proximity more important in infectivity of Covid virions than ventilation or temperature, study suggests. Simulation rather than field study, not yet peer reviewed, other conditions may apply, etc.
Graun

[st599]

Droplets= aerosol. The virus is expelled in a shower of aerosolised droplets which travel in a plume. The virus particles themselves are relatively poor at surviving on their own in a dry atmosphere or on a surface.
Hence why I do not bother with anything more than social hand care anymore.

There was a Wired article last year looking at where the medical teaching on aerosols v droplets and why the author/researchers believed it was wrong.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/

[Kim]

Humidity and proximity more important in infectivity of Covid virions than ventilation or temperature, study suggests. Simulation rather than field study, not yet peer reviewed, other conditions may apply, etc.
Graun

When this was lower than 50% – similar to the relatively dry air found in many offices – the virus had lost half of its infectivity within 10 seconds, after which the decline was slower and more steady. At 90% humidity – roughly equivalent to a steam or shower room – the decline in infectivity was more gradual, with 52% of particles remaining infectious after five minutes, dropping to about 10% after 20 minutes.

It's a good thing we aren't currently experiencing BRITISH winter...  In the absence of full air conditioning, dehumidification goes pretty much hand in hand with ventilation.

[nikki]

There was a Wired article last year looking at where the medical teaching on aerosols v droplets and why the author/researchers believed it was wrong.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/

That was an interesting read - thank you for sharing that. It explains A LOT about why the CDC was so reluctant to talk aerosols even when all the case studies of airborne transmission were being published.

[Cudzoziemiec]

100 microns is 0.1mm, visible to the naked eye. Makes sense when you think that you can see eg a cloud of dust hanging in the air, not settling.

[toontra]

Personally, with what I know about disease control in animals, I would have had everything closed down as a firebreak weeks ago.

How would that have prevented covid becoming endemic?  It's so freaking transmissible a firebreak would have slowed transmission and reduced hospital admissions (by what percentage is unclear, but probably relatively minor according to data from South Africa - data which has been pointing this way for several weeks now).  But at what cost to the economy and people's other health (and mental health) problems?

All signs are that Omicron is indeed close to being endemic, but it's also far less dangerous than previous variants.  I'm no Johnson supporter but in this case (and probably for the first time since Feb 2020) I'm in agreement with the current English guidelines, whereas I think the Welsh & Scottish have over-reacted - possibly for political reasons (i.e. "we are more responsible than the Tories").

Well, it would appear that the Scottish & Welsh restrictions indeed made no difference to the infection rates in those countries.  In fact they are slightly higher over the same period. 

https://ourworldindata.org/local-covid-uk

But the measures will have had a disastrous effect on many people's lives and businesses.

When I posted this at the start of January I was told I was being "ignorant" and "selfish" (despite my having followed all the laws/guidelines religiously and taken part in the 1-year Novavax trial).

It seems some people are reluctant to accept data which doesn't agree with their entrenched viewpoint.

[mrcharly-YHT]

Personally, with what I know about disease control in animals, I would have had everything closed down as a firebreak weeks ago.

How would that have prevented covid becoming endemic?  It's so freaking transmissible a firebreak would have slowed transmission and reduced hospital admissions (by what percentage is unclear, but probably relatively minor according to data from South Africa - data which has been pointing this way for several weeks now).  But at what cost to the economy and people's other health (and mental health) problems?

All signs are that Omicron is indeed close to being endemic, but it's also far less dangerous than previous variants.  I'm no Johnson supporter but in this case (and probably for the first time since Feb 2020) I'm in agreement with the current English guidelines, whereas I think the Welsh & Scottish have over-reacted - possibly for political reasons (i.e. "we are more responsible than the Tories").

Well, it would appear that the Scottish & Welsh restrictions indeed made no difference to the infection rates in those countries.  In fact they are slightly higher over the same period. 

https://ourworldindata.org/local-covid-uk

But the measures will have had a disastrous effect on many people's lives and businesses.

When I posted this at the start of January I was told I was being "ignorant" and "selfish" (despite my having followed all the laws/guidelines religiously and taken part in the 1-year Novavax trial).

It seems some people are reluctant to accept data which doesn't agree with their entrenched viewpoint.

Which one of the graphs shows that?

I'm pretty ignorant when it comes to stats, but on all of those graphs, the rise in cases is not as steep as England.

doesn't that indicate a slower increase rate?

[Cudzoziemiec]

Presumably the second graph, "UK: Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000" which at its peak shows the rate for England below the rate for the UK, with the other nations above? At least, I'd guess so.

[Jaded]

The ones at the bottom of the page, when showing as ‘Log’ seem to show Wales and Scotland in a better light on infections and hospitalisations.

[toontra]

Presumably the second graph, "UK: Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000" which at its peak shows the rate for England below the rate for the UK, with the other nations above? At least, I'd guess so.

Indeed - thanks Cudz. The headline % infections  are from a large cohort and should be pretty accurate.  It was the infection rate that the various national measures were brought in to affect, but the Scottish & Welsh have suffered equal or higher % infection rates.

Hospitalisation/ventilation/death stats are fortunately far smaller numbers and open to more statistical anomalies, but even they don't show markedly higher levels in England.

I guess I'm just still smarting from being accused of being ignorant and selfish.  We all have different views and tend to interpret data selectively, but personal attacks are not necessary.

[nikki]

Don't forget PCR tests were largely unobtanium over that period. With testing maxed-out we were flying blind in a lot of ways.

From the top of the second chart:

The number of confirmed cases is lower than the number of actual cases; the main reason for that is limited testing

Wales and Northern Ireland also count reinfections in their cases stats, which is significant where infections are dominated by a virus that is able to evade immunity from prior infection and vaccines (10-15% of cases reinfections at the moment).

Once data becomes more reliable, it's probably area under the line you want to be paying attention to rather than maximum values. Also rate of change, as someone mentioned up-thread: case numbers for Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are all coming down at a faster rate than for England.

For anyone wanting to check their understanding of 'endemic' the latest Indie SAGE briefing had a segment exploring the definition, the different ways that might manifest and why it's probably not a state to aspire to. Also bonus explainers on apparent/inherent severity and why Omicron isn't Delta evolving to be less severe. Starts here: https://youtu.be/HX5G26t-AVE?t=1014

There's also a nice comparison between case rates in London and other English regions and some discussion about how London's head start with omicron gave time for behaviour modification before Christmas and much lower case numbers than elsewhere where omicron arrived much closer to Christmas: https://youtu.be/HX5G26t-AVE?t=368





I'm starting to hear people talking about partners dying by suicide after prolonged suffering with long covid, and yesterday I spent time listening to a security guard talking about how his mum died after just giving up because of the isolation she was experiencing. There is so much that's not getting represented in charts of case numbers. So sad.

[nikki]

Update: England is going to start reporting reinfections (although only if they happen more than 90 days after the previous infection)
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/whats-new/record/af008739-ffa3-47b8-8efc-ef109f2cfbdd

Cases definition to include multiple infection episodes from 31 January 2022
From 31 January 2022, UKHSA will move all COVID-19 case reporting in England to use a new episode-based definition which includes possible reinfections.

This tweet today about the Zoe app data as an indicator of how off the ONS reporting might have been recently:
https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1488242939897733125

[barakta]

Well it doesn't help that for T&T you have to register afresh each time. A friend couldn't work out how to register her son Covid+ in it and she's a civil service person...

And yes, lots of people won't be logging LFTs with the government websites which UKGov knew when they changed the need for a positive test in (I can't remember) circumstances which means even people who should be getting PCRs aren't...

Hearing of lots of schools struggling with kids/staff getting it.

I'm staying the fuck in my house forever at this rate

[hellymedic]

I had not left the house between 23 December and 30 January but that wasn't enough…

I will go to the dentist late in February; my teeth aren't happy but will otherwise stay home...

[CrazyEnglishTriathlete]

The infection data isn't consistent with the prevalence amongst people I work with.  Given that we are all capable (and generally have been) working from home over the last 2 months - we should be part of a falling trend.  However, we've got more people impacted than at any time previously.  It is possible that we are skewed - people who've managed to keep themselves so far.  And it is always dangerous to rely on anecdotal data

[nikki]

Uni publishes the number of positive tests reported to them, per day, split into students living on campus, students living off campus and staff.

We're on 142 for the last 7 days, which, IIRC, is about 110 more than we were getting per week in the highs at the beginning of the academic year. [What we thought of then as being highs...]

It's been very noticeable over the last few weeks that many people within my social circles have tested positive, whereas before it was just the occasional person in my twitter stream.

[DuncanM]

It feels like half my wife/daughter's school has covid. They have sent the year 8s home yesterday and today, and the year 9s tomorrow and Friday, down to staff absences. My daughter caught it 2 weeks ago, and it seems like lots of her friends have had it since Christmas.

[CrazyEnglishTriathlete]

Discussion today, again on anecdotal evidence, so utterly worthless, was that removing the requirement to perform PCR tests when getting a positive on an LFT means they are reliant on people self-reporting LFTs.  So that means they might be missing a lot (or might not) of positive tests.

[hellymedic]

I think I've posted elsewhere I see tis as a deliberate ploy to cook the statistical books.
Ostrich-style, head-in-sand approach…

Seems Boris doesn't do adulting.

Who would have known?

[ian]

Why the emphasis on testing at this point (particularly PCR), it's expensive and isn't achieving much other than graphs. If you think you have covid, you probably do. If you don't think you have covid, there's still a fair chance you do.

[Cudzoziemiec]

Seems Boris doesn't do adulting.

Who would have known?

Only adultery.

And probably every other woman he's ever met!

[Cudzoziemiec]

Chilly kids in Scotland: https://inews.co.uk/news/scotland/covid-scotland-cut-bottoms-off-school-classroom-doors-improve-ventilation-1438216

“Informal local authority feedback indicated that around 2 to 4 per cent of spaces have so far fallen into that problematic category, equalling around 2,000 spaces out of 50,000 learning, teaching and play spaces,” she wrote.

[Kim]

Cutting the bottom off doors is the sort of stopgap measure that would have made sense two years ago.  But I suppose it's an improvement on the usual England approach of not doing anything about COVID because schools are magic.

[hellymedic]

Wouldn't cutting the bottom off doos cause issues with Fire and Smoke Protection in schools etc?