[HAMR] 18th October - Teethgrinder day 72/291

[offcumden]

According to the tracker Steve seems to have been stopped for the last 3hrs+ just south of Gamlingay.  Hope all is well!

[BobScarle]

Just noticed that. Let's hope it is a tracker problem. 3 hours 41 now.

[Derek]

Given the long straight line it must have been the Tracker

Derek

[offcumden]

Yep - it's moving again now. Phew!

[red marley]

Does anyone else feel like a worried parent when this sort of thing happens?

[offcumden]

Well, I'm certainly old enough to be Steve's dad but . . how can I put this . . I'm rather glad I'm not!

Go Steve

[Basil]

Does anyone else feel like a worried parent when this sort of thing happens?

Yes.  I do.
Particularly after waiting to see why the tracker stopped moving on that other fateful Sunday morning.

[Wowbagger]

If the tracker is right, it's looking like a difficult day for Steve. He isn't that far from home, it's nearly 11pm and he has "only" covered 154 miles.

Let's hope the tracker has missed a few and that the real mileage is 50 or so higher.

Edit: there seems to be a gap of over 4 hours between 10.58 and 3.15 which, hopefully, will represent at least 60 miles.

[TimC]

Steve was complaining of a bad leg and came in with 182 miles, according to Strava. Not great, but not a disaster.

[Arry-R]

Steve was complaining of a bad leg and came in with 182 miles, according to Strava. Not great, but not a disaster.

John.  How many days now is he now STILL BELOW THE 206 minimum.  On the 15th it was 3 to 10 days away. With yesterday's ride of some 24 mls down what is your forecast now please.  Thanks again for all you come up with it is much appreciated by all his supporters.

[hillbilly]

Early November looks likeliest.  In my guesstimation.

Assuming his leg gets better.

What's yours?  All of us are guessing so yours is as valid as mine (there is even a theory that says group guesses converge on the best guess).

[Arry-R]

Thanks Billy.  My post should have read Jo an not John.  Sorry it might be November before he catches up.
His original November schedule was for 6600 miles or 220 per day.  That just won't happen but let us hope he can catch up and then not let slip below the minimum 

[hillbilly]

I think you mentioned before (or someone did) that Steve would ideally be targeting more that 206 miles a day average.  Whilst at the moment, in reasonably fair weather, his variance is pretty much +10 miles to -10 miles (so averaging out close to 206) in winter the downside is much more likely than the up (i.e. if daily variance is 30 miles, then it is more likely to be -30 than +30).  This won't be balanced in the summer (i.e. +30 is more difficult to sustain, even for Steve).

I'm probably not explaining it very well, with too many numbers.  I'm basically saying if Steve doesn't average at least 215 miles a day over the next month, the betting money should be on him failing to exceed Tommy's annual total. 

Or in even plainer language, he has his work cut out. 

All in my opinion.

[Wowbagger]

Yesterday he was 24 miles short. That will take 5 days of 211 miles just to bring him back to where he was 2 days ago. He does indeed have his work cut out.

[Arry-R]

Billy you ARE explaining it very very well indeed.  Your thoughts on his attempt are spot on.  I failed to add that his 220 per day was for November which I repeat is most unlikely to happen.  But we live in hope!

[wajcgac]

I think that Steve's original plan where he mirrored Tommy's daily mileage and added a bit his unlikely ever to happen.

The best I see it panning out at the moment is that he maintains an average close to the 206 miles per day required over winter and that is going to be tough.

in winter the downside is much more likely than the up (i.e. if daily variance is 30 miles, then it is more likely to be -30 than +30).

Very true, and the downside could well be much more than -30.

I'm basically saying if Steve doesn't average at least 215 miles a day over the next month, the betting money should be on him failing to exceed Tommy's annual total. 

I'm not sure that 215 miles a day over the next month is going to be that important a mark to meet.

Lets say Steve maintains an average of 205 miles/day until Apr 8th - (8 months, approx. 240 days in to his 2nd attempt)

He then needs to average 207 miles/day from Apr 8th to the finish on Aug 7th to equal Tommy's record. This should be at a period when weather conditions are picking up.

It's definitely not easy but is not much greater than the average daily mileage required from the start of the attempt.

However, if he could average 215 miles/day for the period from Apr 8th to Aug 7th then he would finish with an overall daily average of approx. 211 miles per day.

Fingers crossed for a mild winter as that is going to be a huge factor in this record attempt.

[Chris S]

Fingers crossed for a mild winter as that is going to be a huge factor in this record attempt.

Don't think for one minute that a mild winter makes this any easier.

For NW Europe, a mild winter usually means wind, rain, and general grimness. A cold winter with dominant high pressure might actually be better; sure it'll be cold and frosty, but if it's dry - then that might actually favour Steve.

Cold and snowy - that's the worst case scenario.

What he *really* wants is a February 1975 - dry and mild; almost unheard of.

[hillbilly]

What he would be sensible considering is to make like a bird and migrate to somewhere more temperate.  Like the South of France, where someone has mentioned an AUK has offered refuge. 

Sure, he'd have to put up with a lack of Wetherspoon breakfasts and so-called sausages of a continental variety, but oh how the weather will be much more suited to putting down a consistent 206 miles tous les jours.

Staying in the UK gives me the sense of a dice being rolled.  Home comforts, for sure.  But risking being stuck at home isn't a comfortable situation in the UK.

(That said, Steve knows best)

[Chris S]

I always got the impression Steve wanted to do this challenge in the same mode as the original record, so no jetting off to the South of France, no riding carbon bling, no wheel sucking for day after day.