Yet Another Cycling Forum
General Category => Freewheeling => Racing => Topic started by: Nuncio on 14 March, 2012, 01:33:29 pm
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I'm looking forward to this. Predictions anyone? I think I'll plump for Cancellara. He's won it before and has started the season strongly. Then again, so has Cav. Maybe Boassan Haagen as a Sky Plan B if Cav has an off-day. Boonen's looking strong but it's a long way to carry that large body of his and haul it over the Cipressa and Poggio towards the end. Or will Liquigas' two-pronged attack of Nibali and Sagan have the home support cheering? BMC need to get their season going and have no less than 4 potential winners in Hushovd, Gilbert, Van Avermaet and Ballan. And Green Edge will have a strong team supporting last year's winner Goss and they'll be deperate to get their European season started. Have I missed anyone?
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Would like to see Cav win, but I think it will be Cancellara.
BTW here is a video clip of Jaun Antonio Fletcha descending the Cipressa.
http://michaelbarry.ca/category/video/page/2/ (http://michaelbarry.ca/category/video/page/2/)
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I suspect Cav wants it more than his rivals, which counts for a lot. I don't think Boonen's got it but Cancellara is always a good bet. Always difficult to predict what happens on the Poggio and Cipressa.
I'll miss this (at least live) because I'm marshalling at my club's open 10. However, we do have a Team Sky pro entered and I might witness his first professional victory!
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Luke Rowe?
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It's a difficult race to predict but Cav, Cancellara, Sagan, and Oscar Freire have all got decent form.
What I admire about Cav is that he's so open about wanting to win this race in the World Champ's jersey. It's almost as if he needs the extra pressure on himself to perform.
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What I admire about Cav is that he's so open about wanting to win this race in the World Champ's jersey. It's almost as if he needs the extra pressure on himself to perform.
That's the remarkable thing about him. Everyone knew about his and GB's plans for the worlds in Copenhagen for about 3 years and there was still absolutely fuck all anybody could do to stop them!
I'll go for Cav on Sunday. He's as safe a bet as anyone....
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An appetite whetter - the 1992 finale. Kelly's last hurrah, toe-clips and all. You may want to turn the sound off if you can't stand Duffers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mL3jQmkj3uI
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I'm backing Cav just because, like bobb says, when he says he wants to win something, he usually does.
He's already shown that he has the beating of Freire and Boonen this season and, as in the Worlds, the team will probably do its utmost to quash any attempted breakaway, which is surely the only way Cancellara can win, right?
I'll miss the race, alas, as my son has a rugby tournament all day on Sunday, but I'll record it and try to avoid seeing the result, Likely Lads style...
d.
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Thor is out. Wiggo is in.
Cancellara for me. Maybe Sagan.
I think the peleton will just climb to fast for Cav to stay with them. Maybe Eddie Bos, Bozic, Degenkolb and Haussler better placed as sprinters ?
Looking forward to having a proper look at Betancur as well. Might go well with Garzelli.
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I'm backing Cav just because, like bobb says, when he says he wants to win something, he usually does.
He's already shown that he has the beating of Freire and Boonen this season and, as in the Worlds, the team will probably do its utmost to quash any attempted breakaway, which is surely the only way Cancellara can win, right?
I'll miss the race, alas, as my son has a rugby tournament all day on Sunday, but I'll record it and try to avoid seeing the result, Likely Lads style...
d.
MSR is on Saturday.
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I'll miss the race, alas, as my son has a rugby tournament all day on Sunday, but I'll record it and try to avoid seeing the result, Likely Lads style...
d.
You will miss it if you wait til Sunday, its on Saturday :facepalm:
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:facepalm:
Well, that's good news, I guess. ;D
d.
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Luke Rowe?
Yes, I think his father is also entered, and his brother Matt won this event two years ago.
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It's a difficult race to predict but Cav, Cancellara, Sagan, and Oscar Freire have all got decent form.
And not forgetting Boonen and Nibali.
I would love to see Cav win in his rainbow jersey.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHeb2LYtY7U
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Are you a happy GruB?
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Yep. Saw the last 10km as well. :thumbsup: I had been following it on Twitter. Didn't see what went wrong with Sky though?
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Cav was dropped on the Passo di Turchino, so plan B was put in operation.
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Cav was dropped on the Passo di Turchino, so plan B was put in operation.
Perhaps plan B needs a bit more work? They seemed to dither too too long before making the decision to ditch plan A.
Great win for Gerrans. Nibali is looking good too.
d.
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Just amazing to watch Cancellara hold off the chasing group as they launched an all-out sprint -- what a superb rider he is! Good win for Gerrans too.
Nibali? Meh.
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Just amazing to watch Cancellara hold off the chasing group as they launched an all-out sprint -- what a superb rider he is! Good win for Gerrans too.
Nibali? Meh.
I would have loved to see Spartacus win, and that was an impressive finish. What a pity he couldn't hold off Gerrans.
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I don't enjoy watching goalhangers win like that. The other two took advantage of Cancellara's ability to ride off the front yet refused to do any work themselves. That's racing I suppose but I prefer class and style to cynicism.
BTW, I did see a Team Sky rider take his first pro win today - local boy done good Luke Rowe is £25 richer having won the Cardiff Ajax CC open 10. He did a 20:07 on a rather damp and cold afternoon - the course record is a 19:48 jointly held by Magnus Backstedt (when he was riding for Liquigas) and Chris Shepard, fresh from the Commonwealth Games a few years earlier. He insisted on speaking up to thank the organiser and helpers for putting on the event - good man!
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When racing is your job, winning is what is important. The rest is just something for the fans to argue about.
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That is certainly true, and he had the the opportunity and he had to take it. But, there are wins and there are wins....not much class on this one.
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I don't enjoy watching goalhangers win like that. The other two took advantage of Cancellara's ability to ride off the front yet refused to do any work themselves. That's racing I suppose but I prefer class and style to cynicism.
That is indeed bunch racing! C knows he will win most TTs, but the odds are against him in a "drafting allowed" event.
Karma was on his side at the Olympics, IIRC. He was the only rider prepared to chase down a breakaway, everyone else just wanted silver. So he just rode them all into the dust. Class :thumbsup:
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That is indeed bunch racing! C knows he will win most TTs, but the odds are against him in a "drafting allowed" event.
Bollocks. Have a look at his palmarès (http://velopalmares.free.fr/cancellara.htm)
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That is indeed bunch racing! C knows he will win most TTs, but the odds are against him in a "drafting allowed" event.
Bollocks. Have a look at his palmarès (http://velopalmares.free.fr/cancellara.htm)
That makes no sense, just because he's won a lot of stuff doesn't mean that he's favourite to win every race he's in, or even every bunch finish he's involved in.
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Nobody has said he is.
Have a look at his palmarès. Now work out what proportion of those are TTs.
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Nobody has said he is.
You have. mattc said the odds are against him, you said that was bollocks. By definition if the odds are not against him then you are claiming that he is the favourite.
Now you have a look his palmares and work out how many [non TT] races he entered but did not win. Most of them. Clearly the odds are against him.
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Matt is implying that Cancellara is really just a TT winner, a quick look at his wins shows that is not the case. Beyond that, I can't be arsed. Enjoy your day.
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How many racers don't lose more races than they win, Beryl Burton aside?
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Nobody has said he is.
Have a look at his palmarès. Now work out what proportion of those are TTs.
It's difficult to see from that list of wins, as so many are in stage races, so they may be the time-trial stages. Wins by rouleurs don't make for good television, people seem to want the excitement of a bunch sprint, or the drama of a mountain-top finish, so apart from Paris-Roubaix a lot of them go unnoticed.
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Matt is implying that Cancellara is really just a TT winner, a quick look at his wins shows that is not the case. Beyond that, I can't be arsed. Enjoy your day.
Matt is implying that the odds are against him in a "drafting allowed" event, a quick look at his wins shows that is the case.
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The Odds (http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/cycling/one-day-classics?oc_mo_redir=false)
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The Odds (http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/cycling/one-day-classics?oc_mo_redir=false)
Those odds show three to one against him winning. Making the 'odds are against him' idea even clearer.
And that's one race out of the dozens of one day races and stages in multi-stage events he'll be taking part in over the season, and he's going to win hardly any of them.
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Curiously the odds are even more against all other riders.
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And yet when you add them all up the other riders have a cumulatively massive advantage. Curiouser and curiouser.
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Just amazing to watch Cancellara hold off the chasing group as they launched an all-out sprint -- what a superb rider he is! Good win for Gerrans too.
Nibali? Meh.
I can't help but think that if it was Nibali riding in support of Sagan rather than the other way round, that Sagan could have won it. Maybe Sagan will get his chance in the weeks to come.
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And yet when you add them all up the other riders have a cumulatively massive advantage. Curiouser and curiouser.
And yet only one person can win at a time.
I can't understand why bookmakers make so much money when the people they suggest have the best odds of winning clearly have the least because they lose more races than they win.
Maybe Merckx wasn't as great as we were led to believe.
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And yet when you add them all up the other riders have a cumulatively massive advantage. Curiouser and curiouser.
And yet only one person can win at a time.
I can't understand why bookmakers make so much money when the people they suggest have the best odds of winning clearly have the least because they lose more races than they win.
Maybe Merckx wasn't as great as we were led to believe.
Eddie Merckx won approx one in every three races he entered; he was the favourite for almost of them despite losing two races for every one he won. He rode something like 150 TdF stages and won 34 of them, less than one in four. You having problems understanding fractions doesn't make him any less of a rider.
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No but it still makes him more of a loser than a winner if we are to view things on your spectrum.
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One 1st place makes you a winner no matter how many times you might fail before or after. Failing to place in a big field doesn't make you a loser.
http://youtu.be/10HgJjb7zVk
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Failing to place in a big field doesn't make you a loser.
Cancellara placed yesterday, and yet he was one of 148 losers.
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...... and Simon Gerrans was the winner. ;D ;D
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...... and Simon Gerrans was the winner. ;D ;D
He's also the leader in the UCI rankings.
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...... and Simon Gerrans was the winner. ;D ;D
One of the winners, GruB.
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But I thought you said........
And yet only one person can win at a time.
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But more than one person has won MSR over the years...
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Yes, Cancellara being one of them (+ Paris-Roubaix twice) but apparently that means the odds are against him now
;D
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That is odd, someone of his class should be favourite. ::-)
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It's not biconditional:
Odds on implies favourite
Favourite does not imply odds on.
Except in [mainly] one on one contests like boxing or football. Or in the land of Flatus where apparently arithmetic works differently from the rest of the world.
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i don't understand all these numbers, but I still think he's a jolly good Trialist (and rode jolly well in the Olympic Road Race - as I may have mentioned earlier)
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It's not biconditional:
Odds on implies favourite
Favourite does not imply odds on.
Except in [mainly] one on one contests like boxing or football. Or in the land of Flatus where apparently arithmetic works differently from the rest of the world.
Funny that. I'm almost sure I haven't used the word favourite even once in this thread.
Don't let that stop you though...
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i don't understand all these numbers, but I still think he's a jolly good Trialist (and rode jolly well in the Olympic Road Race - as I may have mentioned earlier)
Best in the world, mate, but that doesn't stop him being one of the top One Day Classic riders too ;)
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i don't understand all these numbers, but I still think he's a jolly good Trialist (and rode jolly well in the Olympic Road Race - as I may have mentioned earlier)
Best in the world, mate, but that doesn't stop him being one of the top One Day Classic riders too ;)
Isn't that because of the little engine he has in the bottom bracket?
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Cancellara's plans were known. http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest/532084/cancellara-plans-to-upset-san-remo-sprint.html
Gerrans was there to police that break, so there was no reason for him to work. Cancellara has to avoid a bunch sprint to win, which he can often achieve.
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It's not biconditional:
Odds on implies favourite
Favourite does not imply odds on.
Except in [mainly] one on one contests like boxing or football. Or in the land of Flatus where apparently arithmetic works differently from the rest of the world.
Funny that. I'm almost sure I haven't used the word favourite even once in this thread.
Don't let that stop you though...
Never said you did, I was replying to GruB's post. Carry on.
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i don't understand all these numbers, but I still think he's a jolly good Trialist (and rode jolly well in the Olympic Road Race - as I may have mentioned earlier)
Best in the world, mate, but that doesn't stop him being one of the top One Day Classic riders too ;)
Isn't that because of the little engine he has in the bottom bracket?
Now don't bring that into it. That would make him a favourite, and plum will bust a blood vessel.
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Odds on implies favourite
Favourite does not imply odds on.
Except in [mainly] one on one contests like boxing or football. Or in the land of Flatus where apparently arithmetic works differently from the rest of the world.
Bookmaker odds are not probability.
In probability, the odds add up to one, in bookmaker terms, they add up to (one plus tax plus profit).
So, for a bookmaker, there's no problem in having two runners both at odds on
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Errrr...before this descends any further, let's just remind ourselves that the preceding 3 pages are a result of plum's inability to differentiate between the literal and the figurative. Note that even mattc recognises this and is eschewing the literal even though it would grant him a rare, albeit Phyrric, victory against arch enemy Flatus
;D
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Cripes. I had to go to Wikipedia for that one. Don't think I will ever get an opportunity to use it either.
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Try it out on the wife ;D
Looking back, I think it might have been my bluntness and casual use of abusive language to mattc that incited plum. But then he doesn't know that I'm Australian.
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An appetite whetter - the 1992 finale. Kelly's last hurrah, toe-clips and all. You may want to turn the sound off if you can't stand Duffers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mL3jQmkj3uI
"Never ending gabba-yabba" says Little Cudzo. :D
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Errrr...before this descends any further, let's just remind ourselves that the preceding 3 pages are a result of plum's inability to differentiate between the literal and the figurative. Note that even mattc recognises this and is eschewing the literal even though it would grant him a rare, albeit Phyrric, victory against arch enemy Flatus
It's not all about winning - it's how one plays the game.
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It's not all about winning - it's how one plays the game.
Not if you are a professional.
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Bookmaker odds are not probability.
In probability, the odds add up to one, in bookmaker terms, they add up to (one plus tax plus profit).
So, for a bookmaker, there's no problem in having two runners both at odds on
Which is why I said implies rather than equals.
Looking back, I think it might have been my bluntness and casual use of abusive language to mattc that incited plum.
It was, but I've never seen it as more than a harmless bit of trolling. It's a quiet Sunday and I've had to spend the day sitting doing some marking.
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This is why Australians really enjoy to win.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHAKie2XiU0
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It's not all about winning - it's how one plays the game.
Not if you are a professional.
I sincerely hope you're not suggesting Flatus is professional. :o