General Category > LEL 2022

Likelyhood of Finishing

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Lightning Phil:
Here’s a chart I produced in August 17, from the complete LEL rider data.  It shows how far ahead of time limit by Thirsk (400km) going north vs. Likelyhood of finishing.  At the low end, less than 4 hours ahead, you’ve got about a 15% chance, at high end if you are 13-16 hours ahead of limit you’ve got about a 90% chance of finishing.   More than 16 hours, still high likelyhood but slight dip perhaps indicating riders pushing too hard and burning out or injuring themselves. If you had 7 hours or more contingency by Thirsk your chances of finishing were greater than 50%.

Anyway a reminder for 2022, to work on building that time buffer in the first 24 hours / going north. Malton is equivalent control this year.

Really helpful as ever, Phil.

Neil C:
So are you saying arriving at Thirsk with 12 minutes to spare and then spending over 3½ hours there was a doomed plan? I think you are right!

Better try harder this time. :)

Can’t swim won’t tri:
Thanks for this.

Please can I clarify - is it time in hand on arrival at Thirsk, or time in hand on departure from Thirsk?

It will be mostly arrival (since controling gets you access to the facilities usually) but not always.

I'd be interested if theres any corrolation with between this chart and start times (given I have an afternoon start, unlike last time getting up to Malton with a bunch of time in hand is more dependant on sleep needs)


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