Solar tile panels

[LEE]

worth perhaps 9% or more.  You won't get that of an ISA any time soon.

Depends which ISA you choose.  Plenty will outperform 9%

 I'd like to know how to get a reasonably safe 9% return though.

Just select the correct ISA

Seriously though, go to an investment site like III Investment and take a look at ready made funds wrapped in an ISA (I use Fidelity funds but they aren't special).

Take a look at funds by 1 year, 3year, 5 year and 10 year performance and see which ones are most reliable.  That's all I do.  My ISAs have never done worse that 10% a year across any 3 year period.  Yes I took a hit a couple of years ago but, because I "drip-feed" my ISAs monthly I ended up making a significant gain when all the markets recovered (hence a lot of the funds show >20% over the last 12 months.

It's a bit like roulette I suppose but with the aid of a chart showing you where the ball is most likely to land.

I started doing this some years ago when I found out that the fella in charge of my Halifax Endowment mortgage was significantly worse at selecting funds than Stevie Wonder throwing darts at the Financial Times (and I appeared to be paying through the nose for such inept management).

[border-rider]

What am I missing ? I really want to make this work, but I can't.

Possibly two things:

1. you assumed the coupons from your bond are compounded, but the returns from the solar just added up rather than invested.

2. the returns from the solar are a mix of the feed-in tarriff - I assume this is fixed that's what the guarantee is for - plus what you save on not having to pay for electricity - this is not fixed. I reckon 5% price inflation on fuel is probably conservative unless there's some amazing technological breakthrough, but who knows?

So. Supposing your 1,300 return is made up of 300 cash for feed-in plus 1000 saving in fuel bills, with the latter increasing 5% annually, that gives you 39K cash over 20 years as opposed to 26K (double your money). To compare with the bond, if you took the coupon that would give you 10.4K cash plus your 13K investement back.

That's not a good comparison because with the bond the total figure is not spread evenly, you take the capital out at the end. So, suppose you compound the bond coupon and invest the electricity cash at 3%. After 20 years you have 27.4K from your bond against 48.5K from your solar panels.

Lots of arm-waving figures, and my sums may well be wrong, but if it doesn't work out you can heat your house with the warm glow of self-satisfaction at being non-fossil fueled.

Ok, that's useful, thanks.  Makes a bit more sense if one compounds up the income

I think the tariff/fuel saving split is nearer 1000:300 than 300:1000 though

One advantage I can see is that come the (UK) zombie apocalypse, I can disconnect the power line, steal some accumulators and go off-grid.  We already have a well, a couple of woodburners and satellite comms.  And an electric shower somewhere about the place, so that's OK.

[cyclone]

The other issue is that the government is planning to reduce the FIT over coming years, thereby increasing the payback period and reducing the cost effectiveness. I would prefer the basking scenario rather than the fiscal system but then I'm not cash rich (probably why!!)

[Canardly]

Get advice. The Feed in tariff is operating atm and makes a huge difference to your investment decision making process. Crossed posts.

[Quisling]

MV, the other thing you're missing is that the FIT is RPI linked for 25 years and tax free for domestic punters. 

The panels will degrade but you'll still get a minimum of 80% output after 20 years.  The risk factor is that you'll probably have to replace the inverter within the 25 years.

My 3.5kW array went live 12/5/2010 and has produced to date 2273kWh.  Remember it's sub-optimally sited (facing WSW).

2273 x 41.3p (generation) = £938.75
2273 x 0.5 x 3p (export) = £68.19
Offset import - averaging about 50% over the year so far = 2273 x 0.5 x my import tariff - say 12p/kWh = £136.38

Total "benefit" = £1143.32 in 8 and a half months.

HOWEVER, since my import contract is a green tariff which at peak units is around 25p and other units about 15p the benefit is better.  Strictly speaking you should compare the savings to the cost of buying a "green" import tariff and then you're comparing green generation against green import so the cost of carbon is being considered in both.

Colin

[aidan.f]

And the fact that about 90% of the electricity they produce is when you don't need to use a lot of electricity.

Yes  but  others  do need it - demand in this  country now  peaks in hot  weather,  due to lots  of air-con* IMO the feed in tariff is  fairly safe as  you are  lopping  peak demand and  avoiding the need for  expensive  inefficient high carbon plant to be  brought on line.
*In the  2006 hot  summer, traditionally generating  plant was taken down for summer  maintenance, keeping the  grid on was a close call and  cost  45p KWh http://www.power-technology.com/features/feature1139/

[Quisling]

but if it doesn't work out you can heat your house with the warm glow of self-satisfaction at being non-fossil fueled.

Apart from the fossil fuels used to make the solar panels of course.

And the fact that about 90% of the electricity they produce is when you don't need to use a lot of electricity.

My own usage of my own on-site PV generation ranges from about 30% in the summer to 68% in the winter when I'm generating less.  About 20% of domestic electricity usage is refrigeration which provides as respectable baseload of perhaps 200-400W depending on how high the ambient temperature is etc.  Across the year I'll probably average using about 50% of my own generation.

With respect to the energy input to manufacture the panels this is recouped within the first few years of use.  Aluminium frames can be manufactured from recycled materials and are recyclable at end of usable life.  .

[border-rider]

<resurrection shuffle>

Looking at this again, in conjunction with changing all the lights in the house to CFL/LED

One company came out in the autumn and did a survey, got scared off by being asked in detail about lifetimes and returns and didn't bother quoting.

Called one today, they came out immediately <warning bells> and the chaps was frankly incompetent.  We have an electrician living with us on a permanent basis (he's in his 4th week on site) and he offered to put in all the cabling and the breaker in the new consumer unit he's fitting.  Survey boy had no idea what size cable or breaker were needed, and was all-in-all deeply unconvincing.

A local chap (who on the phone sounds very honest & knowledgeable and was willing to give contact details for previous customers who would give him references) is coming on Friday.

Conclusion: many cowboys are involved in this business.

[NikW]

As well as a few cowboys there seem to be lots of fast tracked newbies in the solar PV business - I think supply is having trouble keeping up with demand. The electrics were the weak point of our installation, messy rather than unsafe though so I said I'd sort it myself rather than put Jane through another builders visit. Solar PV is a very different thing for your average sparks what with high current DC in the loft and 230V AC coming both ways down the wire. Worrying stuff such as securing the panels to the roof firmly and assembling/dismantling scaffolding without breaking anything seemed to be very professional, all the various teams of builders roofers etc turned up when they said they would and left very little mess. We used Solar PVE based in Bredon. We got 10 year warranty panels and inverter plus 25 year output guarantee on the panels.

The FiT is index linked and goes up to 43.3p per unit this April and every year (as I suspect will the price of electric) but the FiT for newcomers will probably be reduced April 2012. We've already generated more than the 160 kWh estimated for March from our 2.5 kW max system but it is very sun dependent, a cloudy day and production drops 75%.

I think it's well worth going for but just make sure you find a good company with a long guarantee.

We also have the temporary bonus of our old style supply meter going backwards on a good day - we don't appear to have used any electric at all for a week - I've phoned them twice and they've said they'll replace the meter so the balls in Southern Electrics court.

Bad news is for safety reasons (electricians working up the line) you can't run the approved grid-tie inverters without a mains supply present so not much use post apocalypse without stand alone inverters 

[rwa.martin]

Small scale systems will generally not be larger than 4kW. Installations I've been involved in (I'm an electrician doing the inverter installation for a reputable local installer) are producing around 3kW.
The DC 'tails' come into the inverter via a DC isolator (the panels are constantly live). The inverter feeds into a suitable  MCB in the consumer unit, usually a 16 amp B curve but sometimes a 20amp C curve via a meter and AC isolator. Cable is 4mm minimum but size will depend on the length of run from inverter to consumer unit as the voltage drop needs to be properly allowed for (1% ideally).

[Nightfly]

Given that these solar tiles are rather expensive I would be worried a couple of TGBs in vans would be along pdq to half inch them from the roof. Copper is routinely stripped from roofs and cabling dug up so PVT would seem to me to be at risk. How could theft of PVTs be minimised as they are rather obvious when on a roof and everyone knows they cost a fortune? Snipers?

[border-rider]

Not sure what the market would be though

The value to most people is the feed-in tariff, and to get that they have to be installed by an accredited organisation, not some dodgy WVM who offers you a deal on the doorstep.  Unless the official installers started fencing, I'm not sure they'd have very much value at all in reality.

[David Martin]

This is interesting. Given a roof of 25m x15m (OK, could be 12m from the gutter to the apex), steeply pitched (60 degrees?), steel framed and south facing, what kind of power would these things produce?

** Googles **

Looks like a 20kW array could cost around 60k to install but would give a return of about 10% per year in FiT etc and provide essentially free electricity. I think this is scaled from a domestic install so may be cheaper than this.

(Yes it is a large hall). There is another hall about the size of two badminton courts with a much flatter roof (20-30 degrees).

[Wowbagger]

The impression I gained from the Solartwin guy who tried to flog me some of this stuff was that pitched roofs are typically either 45° or 35°.

[David Martin]

The impression I gained from the Solartwin guy who tried to flog me some of this stuff was that pitched roofs are typically either 45° or 35°.

This roof is substantially steeper than the average pitched roof. Definitely too steep to walk on. Add the other hall and we could get up to about 50kW which at domestic rates would be about 150k of investment, payback on FiT in about 8 years.

Definitely worth considering.

..d

[border-rider]

FIT goes down above 4 kW.  It's not just the bit above 4 kW that attracts a lower rate, it's the whole thing

The S-facing bit of our roof is about 10 m long and about 3.5 wide, with a 35 degree pitch,  and will just take 4 kW.

I'd calculated pay back on installed costs in about a decade for 4 kW.  The second decade you start to make some money

[David Martin]

Thanks for the detail. It is definitely something to consider though payback may be reduced if we do produce too much. Time to get some advice from the experts.

[NikW]

The PVGIS calculator is quite fun - results for ours were a few % below what the supplier quoted but we have a rather non-standard set-up with 2 arrays of 7 panels on SE and SW facing roofs. You need to select your location, roof angle etc but ignore the 'tracking' options, they're for fancy panels with motors to turn them into the sun.

[Quisling]

@All

remember the FIT increases for domestic installs w.e.f. 1/4/11 in line with December RPI so I think domestic retrofit <4kWp will be 43.3p generation and 3.x for export.

Quisling towers is on line to do about 2500kWh in the first year of operation.

@David Martin - there is a fast track FIT review ongoing up until about July which may kill off projects >50kW peak output though the industry is widely lobbying for ongoing support for projects up to about 250kW.  You're right - about 8 year payback at present prices for a decent size, well arranged array.

With respect to the domestic market, if you don't want the risk of spending your own cash, E.ON will shortly be launching a "free PV" offer, though as with all these schemes it'll only be fairly optimal sites that qualify (big roof, southish facing, no obstacles like dormer windows, 2 storeys or less etc).

[border-rider]

We had a visit from a much more convincing installer today

Knew about all the different panel options & their electrical characteristics, could talk knowledgeably about inverter efficiency and DC-->AC conversion processes, said he'd use a roofing company to do the mounting work and was good on how much we should install - he argued for 3 rather than 4 kW even though he'd get less money

Winner so far, and even Gavin our resident electrician reckoned he knew his stuff.

[Adam]

I've started looking into this, and have lined up several firms to come out and quote.  The normal roof faces SW, although at the back we've got a massive flat roof area, and so could have the array aligned due south.

Having read through the Statutory Instrument setting out the basis for the Feed In Tariffs, although it's nice it's quite clearly set out as RPI increases for the 25 year period, my nagging concern is that any Government could say in 10 years time, sorry no more FITs and simply stop or reduce the current amounts. 

I know the rate will alter for new installations from 2012 onwards, but in the same way that occasionally Governments have introduced retrospective taxation, I have this nagging worry they could alter everything for existing installations.  Which makes the case for going for one of the "free" installations more compelling.   

It's also a shame that if there's a power cut, then you can't use the electricity you're generating.  I know they don't want privately generated power still being pumped into the grid if the system's down, but you'd have thought the electronics could handle an isolator to stop electricity going down the wire on those occasions?

[Quisling]

The inverter senses when the mains import supply is lost and automatically stops feeding power back into the grid in order to protect engineers working to restore power from getting blasted. It is also a requirement that the electrical installation is clearly labelled in the house so any electrician working within the propert can isolate the PV array. There will be a DC isolator on the array side of the inverter and an AC isolator between the inverter and the consumer unit so that the system can be shut down if it has a fault.

The electrical safety with respect to automatic shutdowns is all covered in the G83/1 or G59 regulations depending on the size of the array. G83/1 covers installations up to 16 Amps per phase - about 3.7 kW peak output.

Given the legally binding carbon reduction targets the government has to deal with (or risk ire from the EU) I wouldnt worry about retrospective tax changes. The current FIT review consultation is very much aimed at protecting opportunities for the domestic householder to install PV and reduce the number of larger commercial arrays.

I've just reached the end of my first year as a PV owner - I reckon my ROI is about 9% tax free (based on 3.5 kWp array and £13k install cost.   

Sure, some peasant government might introduce retrospective tax changed but given that this is not being considered in the middle of a dark recession it's not looking likely in the immediate future.  indeed, if you are concerned then treat a PV investment in the same way as a stocks and shares ISA - is value of investment return may fall.

[border-rider]

I'm losing the will to live over the planning requirements.  It should be simple, but it's not.

[toontra]

It's been a good spring for PV owners in London.  Regularly earning £5 per day, well up on this period last year.

[Quisling]

I'm losing the will to live over the planning requirements.  It should be simple, but it's not.

Should be very straightfoward  Unless you're conservation area or listed building then domestic PV has "Permitted Development" and doesn't need planning permission.  There are exceptions - e.g. if your PV is of unusual design, sticks up more than (I think) 200mm above the surface of the roof, or extends above the roofline etc.

Building Control is a different issue, but should be covered by a "Building Notice" application rather than a full plans submission.  Herr Inspektor then does a visit, post-install, and declares it to be the love plums of a dog or a crock of dung - in which case you put the pain on your installer who should have designed a suitable system for you.  Our local BC Dept charged me about £110 for their involvement before signing the job off.