[HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?

[Exit Stage Left]

Greenbank is quite right, Steve and Kurt were well off their schedules by mid-February. They responded to the positive feedback from social media, and it distorted their performances.

Day 45: Kurt wins the Sebring 12hr race as a 'side project' with 253.2 miles before adding another 10 to the OYTT for good measure. Meanwhile Steve knocks out a cool 193 miles to keep his consistent pace. William records his highest daily total so far at 81 miles, but has a deficit of over 7,000 miles to make up.

I was wondering by mid-March if the information tail was wagging the dog. Big mile days brought kudos on Strava, and attention in the media.

I dont think Steve was way off schedule. That graph shows him less than 200 miles ahead of schedule, (under 5 miles a day).
Wherease Kurt is more like 600 above after 37 days.

And you will note that Greenbank did NOT say Steve was well off his schedule.

There doesnt seem to be much right in your post, TBH. Sorry!

That's 200 miles above his 87,000 mile schedule. An attempt to make up ground on Kurt was made at Day 19. That raised Steve 200 miles above his schedule, but he plateaued at that, which is unsurprising at that time of year. He stayed at that trend line, but dipped before the accident. As Greenbank noted, Steve was accumulating sleep debt. The eventual result will be well below Steve's lower schedule, and Kurt's only schedule.
Steve and Kurt should have taken it easier early on.
Whether Steve's current performance is a cause for panic is up for debate.

[Ningishzidda]

Holiday snaps from Guantanamo Bay.

[hillbilly]

Is he on the Pringles Diet now?

Winter is due to land next week, according to forecasters. Steve has had to contend with hindering weather so far in his second attempt. Now comes the hostile stuff. I hope he's somewhere approaching full fitness by the time he has to battle it.

[swampthing]

Speaking of schedules, just noticed that his two original schedules have disappeared from the website in the last 24 hours.

There is a new schedule on the website (it has not been posted here yet, has it?):
http://oneyeartimetrial.org.uk/the-preparation/142-targets-2016

Month	Distance	Distance/ day
August 2015	4,564.70	190.196
September 2015	6,424.80	214.160
October 2015	6,469.60	208.697
November 2015	5,491.20	183.041
December 2015	4,910.20	158.394
January 2016	6,250.00	201.6
February 2016	6,425.00	221.6
March 2016	6,990.00	225.5
April 2016	7,110.00	237.0
May 2016	7,195.00	232.1
June 2016	7,035.00	234.5
July 2016	7,024.00	226.6
August 2016	1,260.00	210.0
Total	77,149.50

August to December are the past rides, values for 2016 are planned (with 190 miles from 1st to 7th January and 205 miles/ day thereafter). No more days falling below one Godwin, starting today, according to this ambitious plan.
Good luck, Steve! 

[red marley]

Interesting and really helpful in anchoring discussion about the likelihood of success and progress towards a new record. That's a pretty tough March-July, but at least we will get some idea well before then if he's up to it. I think February will be the make or break month (222 mpd will be really hard in UK winter conditions), but good luck to Steve and the team.

[L CC]

Maybe he's going to travel somewhere nicer for his 222mpd in Feb?

[IJL]

Maybe he's going to travel somewhere nicer for his 222mpd in Feb?

I hope so, a spell somewhere warm and flat would make a big difference, he's going to need to be lucky with the weather to do 222mpd in Feb and luck seems to have been in short supply in recent times

[Ivo]

Maybe he's going to travel somewhere nicer for his 222mpd in Feb?

The Bordeaux area would be a good one for that.

[jochta]

Maybe he's going to travel somewhere nicer for his 222mpd in Feb?

I hope so, a spell somewhere warm and flat would make a big difference, he's going to need to be lucky with the weather to do 222mpd in Feb and luck seems to have been in short supply in recent times

Good to see a schedule and a plan, it's reassuring. Here's hoping for a benign remainder of the winter. Never mind February (the coldest month on average) a March like the one seen in 2013 would not be good news either. Still cold weather in the winter is often dry and calm.

[Frank9755]

Great to see that some thinking has been done by the team on this.

Anyone know how he has tracked against the early Jan part:
Friday, January 1, 2016    190
Saturday, January 2, 2016    190
Sunday, January 3, 2016    190
Monday, January 4, 2016    190
Tuesday, January 5, 2016    190
Wednesday, January 6, 2016    190
Thursday, January 7, 2016    190?

[Ningishzidda]

Rename the sub-forum.

"2016 Kurt Searvogel Record Attempt".

[Legs]

January 1, 2016    201.7
January 2, 2016    190.5
January 3, 2016    161.2
January 4, 2016    181.2
January 5, 2016    195.2
January 6, 2016    156.9
January 7, 2016    200
TOTAL                  1286.7
So an average of 206.8mpd required in the remaining 24 days of January (i.e. 20 minutes more riding and 20 minutes less rest than his longest day of the year so far, every day).

[Laid Back Rich]

Maybe he's going to travel somewhere nicer for his 222mpd in Feb?

The Bordeaux area would be a good one for that.

Likely better weather, and good flat straight fast roads, but that seems to encourage very fast driving too - I always feel uneasy riding down there.
Academic anyway IMO, I can't see Steve leaving UK to do any of this.

[Exit Stage Left]

Maybe he's going to travel somewhere nicer for his 222mpd in Feb?

The Bordeaux area would be a good one for that.

If we we were thinking on a Continental scale, as Kurt did, we might be looking into the Mistral. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mistral_(wind)
Upwind transfers don't just avoid headwind, they make use of tailwinds as a positive effect. I wonder what the N7 is like to cycle on.

[Frank9755]

January 1, 2016    201.7
January 2, 2016    190.5
January 3, 2016    161.2
January 4, 2016    181.2
January 5, 2016    195.2
January 6, 2016    156.9
January 7, 2016    200
TOTAL                  1286.7
So an average of 206.8mpd required in the remaining 24 days of January (i.e. 20 minutes more riding and 20 minutes less rest than his longest day of the year so far, every day).

Thanks - so I make that he's 43 miles down on the 190 per day schedule for the first week.
It doesn't sound a lot but any deficit needs to be clawed back at some point and makes the task harder.

[Greenbank]

Interesting plan, kind of what I expected although the peak is earlier than I thought (Apr not June/July) and flatter near the end with less of a drop into August (there's only 6 days).

Good luck Steve.

[Greenbank]

So an average of 206.8mpd required in the remaining 24 days of January (i.e. 20 minutes more riding and 20 minutes less rest than his longest day of the year so far, every day).

Thanks - so I make that he's 43 miles down on the 190 per day schedule for the first week.
It doesn't sound a lot but any deficit needs to be clawed back at some point and makes the task harder.

As Legs says, it's 1.8 miles per day for the rest of Jan to claw that back.

Plus they'll be less to do if Kurt doesn't achieve 77,149.49.

Kurt's on for 76100-ish (I think), so that's 1000 miles of that plan that Steve won't have to do (if it really came down to it), or about 4.5 miles per day.

Part of me wants Kurt to smash it for the last few days, and part of me wants him to ease up and be kind to Steve.

[Mr Larrington]

Rename the sub-forum.

"2016 Kurt Searvogel Record Attempt".

I wish I'd said that.

Oh, wait...

[Greenbank]

Silly Larrington. No-one reads the thread before posting, that would be too easy.

*prepares the BEAR*

[TimC]

It's a little concerning that the schedule for January starts with an already-accrued 43 mile deficit!! For all the reasons frequently given here, I believe this schedule is unlikely to work, but at least we now have one and can objectively judge how Steve is doing relative to it. Once again, I wish him all the luck he needs and more, but I'm not optimistic.

[drgannet]

Plus they'll be less to do if Kurt doesn't achieve 77,149.49.

Kurt's on for 76100-ish (I think), so that's 1000 miles of that plan that Steve won't have to do (if it really came down to it), or about 4.5 miles per day.

Part of me wants Kurt to smash it for the last few days, and part of me wants him to ease up and be kind to Steve.

The 77149 is a good target, because that would beat Tommy's 77001 (still the furthest anyone has cycled in a year, as far as we know).

[Legs]

It's a little concerning that the schedule for January starts with an already-accrued 43 mile deficit!! For all the reasons frequently given here, I believe this schedule is unlikely to work, but at least we now have one and can objectively judge how Steve is doing relative to it. Once again, I wish him all the luck he needs and more, but I'm not optimistic.

+1.  Interesting, as Greenbank points out, that the peak daily mileage is scheduled for April rather than a later month - I would have thought that, once the worst of winter passes (probably next month), riding conditions would steadily improve through to the end of the attempt.  April, with typical showery weather and blustery conditions, strikes me as a much less clement month than, say, June.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

I suspect that front-loading the schedule optimistically allows Steve to regain any shortfall along the way. "I just have to keep improving, etc"

[Wowbagger]

It's good to see a set of targets. Now comes the point where we say that we wouldn't have done it like that!

As has been said above, I cannot see the point in peaking in April and then cutting back later. Surely, Steve will want to pile things on toward the end of the ride. I suppose he has the flexibility with this plan (plans can change, and I would suggest that changing this plan in the light =of experience is part of the plan) that, if he is behind this schedule, but is catching up with Kurt, he can shift the planned miles towards the end of the challenge. After all, it doesn't really matter how exhausted he is by 7th August because he will have plenty of time for a rest then.

As ever, wishing Steve the best of luck.

@Legs: Although April has a reputation for showers, it is often the driest month in southern England. In 2007, when Mrs. Wow and I did our LEJOG, there were some weather stations operated by Essex and Suffolk Water that didn't record any rain throughout the whole of April. We didn't experience any at all until we were on Arran, and then it was only 20 minutes or so. It rained all day when we went through Fort William and we had another wet afternoon on the East Coast.

[Exit Stage Left]

@Legs: Although April has a reputation for showers, it is often the driest month in southern England. In 2007, when Mrs. Wow and I did our LEJOG, there were some weather stations operated by Essex and Suffolk Water that didn't record any rain throughout the whole of April. We didn't experience any at all until we were on Arran, and then it was only 20 minutes or so. It rained all day when we went through Fort William and we had another wet afternoon on the East Coast.

I remember my first meeting with LWAB, on a 300k PBP qualifier out of somewhere near Harwich in April 2003, it was cold enough to freeze our water-bottles, and Dave had to stick to my wheel, as he'd forgotten his leg warmers. April tends to be dry with extremes of temperature. Weather rhymes predate the Gregorian calendar, so refer to a period 11 days later.