Author Topic: [HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?  (Read 252807 times)

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #525 on: 10 December, 2015, 03:00:28 pm »
My experience of record chasing is that all rides are unique and can't be compared to one another.  You do what you can and what you need to rules permitting at the time you're racing or riding. To do otherwise is stupid.

Godwin wouldn't have hesitated swapping out his bike for a light weight modern machine......

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #526 on: 10 December, 2015, 03:06:02 pm »
Quote
I find it very hard to find anything positive in recent progress.

I think it is difficult to say things are going brilliantly at the moment, but as others have pointed out: All that matters is that Steve comes out of the winter period with an achievable target still in sight. He can afford to drop a fair few miles between now & March, yet still be in with a shout. Unless something really catastrophic happens, we won't really know whether he can do it for a few months. It is still too early to write him off IMHO.

zigzag

  • unfuckwithable
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #527 on: 10 December, 2015, 03:39:48 pm »
Steve needs to bear in mind that (as i'm sure he knows) that it is exponentially harder to claw back lost miles. everything compounds over the time against you - more strain on the body due to increased distances and less time for eating, sleeping and recovery. it's best, if possible, to keep close to 200mpd over the winter, especially when the weather is benign (it won't get better than recent few days).
alternatively, Steve can wait few years, learn from his current attempt, gain some speed and have another go - he's ten(?) years junior to Kurt. it's those who work smart (rather than hard) that achieve great results.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #528 on: 10 December, 2015, 03:58:49 pm »
Zig-Zag is on the money.

I'd say the daily mileage needs to be at least 205 miles per day. Accumulating more miles in deficit isn't sensible. There are only 24 hours in every day and 365 of them in this record attempt.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #529 on: 10 December, 2015, 04:18:44 pm »
Steve pointed out to me that 2015 has been one of the windiest years on record. His riding strategy makes that a problem for him. Potentially it's an advantage, as Kurt points out in this very good article.

Quote
Searvogel is as haunted by the wind as any sailor. He tracks it obsessively on the website WindFinder.com, charting his course around prevailing patterns. Like a game of geophysical chess, it is about not simply that day’s winds but also the next. “You’ve got to know what’s going to happen tomorrow,” he told me. “If you ride yourself into a corner, the next day’s going to be hell. It’s probably about 5:30 or 6 p.m. before we know where we’ll be tomorrow.”

But Searvogel knew this morning’s inconvenience would only be temporary. “You always want to hit the easy button,” he says. A mileage record is a mileage record: there is no added distinction for feet climbed, watts burned, state lines crossed. Once we reached land’s end in Door County, we would turn around and catch a great big southerly express train of atmospheric disturbance projected for later that morning that would take us all the way down near Madison. “Tomorrow’s probably going to be a 250-mile day,” were his last words the night before, which rang in my ears like a threat.

http://www.outsideonline.com/2039276/hello-i-must-be-going

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #530 on: 10 December, 2015, 04:29:41 pm »
My understanding is that Marcus is very close to the mark. I think Steve has forgotten that the majority of Tommy's attempt had a accompanying car with a dedicated person carrying extra clothes and handing up food and drinks along the road. That assistance alone is worth tens of miles per day. Kurt has certainly found that sort of assistance  very helpful.

Godwin had only 5 months by my reckoning, May - August

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #531 on: 10 December, 2015, 04:33:50 pm »
OK, not the majority, the slight minority, but certainly the months that he consistently significantly exceeded his average daily mileage.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #532 on: 10 December, 2015, 04:54:24 pm »
My understanding is that Marcus is very close to the mark. I think Steve has forgotten that the majority of Tommy's attempt had a accompanying car with a dedicated person carrying extra clothes and handing up food and drinks along the road. That assistance alone is worth tens of miles per day. Kurt has certainly found that sort of assistance  very helpful.

Godwin had only 5 months by my reckoning, May - August

The months when he recorded his highest mileage and probably rode longer hours.

hillbilly

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #533 on: 10 December, 2015, 05:03:57 pm »
All that matters is that Steve comes out of the winter period with an achievable target still in sight.

Bang on the mark.

I hope Steve stabilises his losses soon.  The thing that catches my eye is that the losses are quite variable at the moment, ranging from 80 miles a day to 30 miles.  Often with no clear weather-linked reason (particularly over the past week).  That variability smacks of getting into a cycle of overcompensation following a disappointing mileage total. 

In "similar" situations (chasing a record, albeit not one so hard) what I did was set a more manageable target when things weren't going to the master plan (in this case it would be "ride 10 miles more than yesterday") rather than attempting to push myself back onto the master plan (in this case, ride 205 miles). 

Steve has the ability and scope to make up a reasonable shortfall come the end of winter, so a gradual clawing back towards daily Godwins is an option for him.  Rather than pushing too hard too soon.

Of course, this assumes that the disappointing daily mileages being seen at the moment are due to his diet or some other physical limitation.  Rather than simply fighting the weather (where a degree of variability would be more understandable).  I don't know which it is, not being in Steve's inner circle. (In other words "what do I know").

red marley

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #534 on: 10 December, 2015, 05:14:54 pm »
I wouldn't rule out the over-compensation pattern you suggest, but remember also that the daily figures as logged on Strava are for 24 hour periods sliced at midnight. So a later ride can look like an under-achieving day followed by an over-achieving one that contains the tail end of the previous late night finish (this wouldn't apply if he was consistently riding at the same times of day, but we have seen some fluctuation in start and end times).

hillbilly

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #535 on: 10 December, 2015, 05:39:51 pm »
but remember also that the daily figures as logged on Strava are for 24 hour periods sliced at midnight.

Good observation.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #536 on: 10 December, 2015, 05:46:23 pm »
^^^ Thus far it has been rather mild but it has also been rather wet (very wet) and rather windy (very windy) which can't be of great help.  A few still, dry and cooler days would no doubt help.  If we get a bad winter with hard frosts (ice) and snow (reducing the effective width of the road) then it will be truly grim.

Pity funds are tight and Steve can't fly to better weather.

Windy but not wet. Rainfall in the whole of southern England and East Anglia was well within normal bounds in November and actually rather dry in places. It's only when you get north of Birmingham and to the NW that rainfall was well above normal. Southern UK rainfall is rather evenly distributed throughout the year, i.e. most months on average receive about the same amount. It's also been very mild, with only a couple of air frosts so far and temperatures well above normal.

See http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/gcpxfm7hf for Woburn climatic averages.

mattc

  • n.b. have grown beard since photo taken
    • Didcot Audaxes
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #537 on: 10 December, 2015, 05:59:31 pm »
Steve pointed out to me that 2015 has been one of the windiest years on record. His riding strategy makes that a problem for him.

Which aspect of his strategy?
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

TimC

  • Old blerk sometimes onabike.
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #538 on: 11 December, 2015, 06:43:49 am »
Apart from the wind, the weather in the south of England has been pretty benign this year. Steve's explained a numb of times the tactics he uses to mitigate the wind - riding in exposed areas with the wind behind him and seeking sheltered roads for the return. However, the recent dip in form is worrying and I imagine the decision to go for a major change in nutrition strategy mid-attempt (and at this time of year) must be at least part of the reason.

Anything of this extreme nature is something of an experiment, and the potential for disruption is high, but this has the feeling of something of an own-goal and I wonder how much it's down to an influential advisor's inappropriate preferences rather than just a run of bad luck.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #539 on: 11 December, 2015, 07:03:22 am »
Steve pointed out to me that 2015 has been one of the windiest years on record. His riding strategy makes that a problem for him. Potentially it's an advantage, as Kurt points out in this very good article.

Quote
Searvogel is as haunted by the wind as any sailor. He tracks it obsessively on the website WindFinder.com, charting his course around prevailing patterns. Like a game of geophysical chess, it is about not simply that day’s winds but also the next. “You’ve got to know what’s going to happen tomorrow,” he told me. “If you ride yourself into a corner, the next day’s going to be hell. It’s probably about 5:30 or 6 p.m. before we know where we’ll be tomorrow.”

But Searvogel knew this morning’s inconvenience would only be temporary. “You always want to hit the easy button,” he says. A mileage record is a mileage record: there is no added distinction for feet climbed, watts burned, state lines crossed. Once we reached land’s end in Door County, we would turn around and catch a great big southerly express train of atmospheric disturbance projected for later that morning that would take us all the way down near Madison. “Tomorrow’s probably going to be a 250-mile day,” were his last words the night before, which rang in my ears like a threat.

http://www.outsideonline.com/2039276/hello-i-must-be-going

Very good that.

Made me think looking at this as not a TT but a 75.000mile audax how awesome both men are (unglaublich):
1. Kurt (under 365 days)
2. Steve (hors delay)
3-n. YACF (DNF)

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #540 on: 11 December, 2015, 08:54:40 am »
Media interest was always going to be most intense at the beginning of the attempt, and towards the end. The 'crowd-funding' of Steve that evolved was a good strategy to finance the project.

Kurt had the advantage of having organised and financed a RAAM. Getting Hoppo on board the Steve team made a lot of sense, as he had similar experience. Idai has the force of personality to handle the media side. But the crowd-funding grew out of YACF, and the two sides never seemed to gel for me.

Jo explained the YACF link to the Guardian in an interview, and the Daily Mirror did an article just before the moped incident.

There's a story to be told of the attempt as a management exercise. 'Riding yourself into a corner' is the most telling phrase that Kurt uses.

Chris S

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #541 on: 11 December, 2015, 10:02:31 am »
Steve pointed out to me that 2015 has been one of the windiest years on record. His riding strategy makes that a problem for him.

Which aspect of his strategy?

He's not really interested in "help". I'd be really surprised if the recent call for lifts into the wind came from Steve; he wants to do it with as little outside help as possible. It's an approach, far be it from us to criticise if that's how he wants to play it, but IMHO it's very high risk, and recent history is showing just how difficult an approach it is.

Kurt found (or already knew!) what would work - 12 hours of evens, then 12 hours rest; but most important of all, Alicia! Early evening, they decide where to ride next day based on the wind forecast, she drives them both to the agreed start, he rests.

I have no idea of the day to day decision making process of Steve's team (or if there is in fact, any "team" at all?).

mattc

  • n.b. have grown beard since photo taken
    • Didcot Audaxes
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #542 on: 11 December, 2015, 10:11:36 am »
Steve pointed out to me that 2015 has been one of the windiest years on record. His riding strategy makes that a problem for him.

Which aspect of his strategy?

He's not really interested in "help". I'd be really surprised if the recent call for lifts into the wind came from Steve; he want's to do it with as little outside help as possible. It's an approach, far be it from us to criticise if that's how he wants to play it, but IMHO it's very high risk, and recent history is showing just how difficult an approach it is.

Kurt found (or already knew!) what would work - 12 hours of evens, then 12 hours rest; but most important of all, Alecia! Early evening, they decide where to ride next day based on the wind forecast, she drives them both to the agreed start, he rests.

I have no idea of the day to day decision making process of Steve's team (or if there is in fact, any "team" at all?).
So your answer to my question seems to be:
"Not having a 365x24 support person, who also drives him upwind every night."


That's not really "strategy". If you don't have a resource, you can't choose not to use it!
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Chris S

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #543 on: 11 December, 2015, 10:13:31 am »
That's not really "strategy". If you don't have a resource, you can't choose not to use it!

He never asked for such a resource, because it was never his strategy.

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #544 on: 11 December, 2015, 10:14:31 am »
Steve has had the opportunity to acquire that resource since very early in his attempt. The major limitation has been the desire to make it happen.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

mattc

  • n.b. have grown beard since photo taken
    • Didcot Audaxes
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #545 on: 11 December, 2015, 10:16:47 am »
I know he's chosen to do without certain levels of support - and of course that has cost him. We all have our different opinions on whether this was "wise".

But has he really been offered a 365x24 helper?  ???
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #546 on: 11 December, 2015, 10:33:00 am »
He has been offered 24 hr help several times, most recently myself from 25 Dec to 01 Jan inclusive.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

mattc

  • n.b. have grown beard since photo taken
    • Didcot Audaxes
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #547 on: 11 December, 2015, 11:36:29 am »
He has been offered 24 hr help several times, most recently myself from 25 Dec to 01 Jan inclusive.
No offence, but I'd prefer an Alicia for Christmas.
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #548 on: 11 December, 2015, 11:46:58 am »
None taken. I'm quite sure I wouldn't look as enticing, regardless of the height of my heels or hairstyle.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #549 on: 11 December, 2015, 12:09:27 pm »
He's not really interested in "help". I'd be really surprised if the recent call for lifts into the wind came from Steve; he want's to do it with as little outside help as possible. It's an approach, far be it from us to criticise if that's how he wants to play it, but IMHO it's very high risk, and recent history is showing just how difficult an approach it is.

I don't see it "wanting to do it with as little outside hep as possible" being the main motivation.
I was recently in a position to offer Steve (and his bike) a lift into quite a strong SW wind.  A couple of hours in the car and he'd have been 160km upwind of MK instead of 50km downwind.  His rationale was that he'd get more miles in, in total, by being on his bike for those two hours - even if he spent the entire day butting into a headwind.
I was surprised - but I have confidence that he knows what he's doing with calculations of that sort.