When we were burgled, the toerag knocked on the door and my wife answered. He claimed to be a taxi driver or something. Unfortunately, my wife was just getting ready to go out at the time, which he obviously twigged, so he just waited until she was gone.
I'm not convinced by the whole curtain opening/closing, lights on/off thing as a deterrent, but the police do recommend it and I'm sure they know what they're talking about.