DNF rate

[vorsprung]

2 out of 3 of the people i was following on the tracker have packed! 

Is the DNF rate high?  Any stats?

[Fidgetbuzz]

My small group is 3 going ..two Ok  but one really up against it .. 2 down.
My first guess is going to be 50% fail on 1550 starters

[billyam998]

Sadly, I am one of them and, I have been booted from the facebook page for commenting about it.
 The weather is quite obviously beyond the organisers control but, the choices made for some parts of this years route are questionable. Great rides in isolation I'm sure but, as part of a 1400km event?

[freeflow]

Sadly, I am one of them and, I have been booted from the facebook page for commenting about it.

Why comment.  The route and profile are published well in advance.  Nothing routewise should be a surprise.  I don't enter AAA Audaxes and then complain they are hilly.....

[LittleWheelsandBig]

There have not been many LRM brevets with a 50% DNF rate and only a handful of them with a worse DNF rate.

My rule of thumb is that 75% of average starters should be able to finish a brevet, discounting the effects of apocalyptic conditions. An organiser might target hardriders who want to test themselves against a truly difficult event but everybody needs to go into the event knowing that there is a high risk of failure by design e.g. describing the Brimstone 600 as a 'scenic weekend tour' to uninformed newbies isn't really fair.

HK (4 x LEL) and I (3 x LEL) decided not to enter this edition. I have ridden LRMs with high DNF rates (DNFed one of them myself) and I don't want to do that too often in future. Most folk (including me) appreciate some easy sections to regain time amidst riding through the scenic stuff.

[rogerzilla]

They're going for the 1914 Giro d'Italia record*, aren't they?

(click to show/hide)

*90% DNF

[D.A.L.E.]

What's the problem?

Seemed to be a bunch of DNFs on day one looking at the GPS tracker.

[rogerzilla]

From a layman's perspective:

It's longer
The hills are bigger
It's rather hot
People have had two years of disrupted training

Out of interest, what was the 2009 DNF rate in the apocalyptic Scottish rain?

[hellymedic]

I can't remember but don't think it was that high...

[LittleWheelsandBig]

I vaguely recall around 1/3 for LEL09 but that was a long time ago. If so, that DNF rate doesn't seem so bad now.

LEL17's high DNF rate included a large number of Asian riders who had issues with hills, navigation and cold weather. Everybody had issues with the return headwind.

[D.A.L.E.]

From a layman's perspective:

It's longer
The hills are bigger
It's rather hot
People have had two years of disrupted training

Hmm.

[Chuffy]

Sadly, I am one of them and, I have been booted from the facebook page for commenting about it.
 The weather is quite obviously beyond the organisers control but, the choices made for some parts of this years route are questionable. Great rides in isolation I'm sure but, as part of a 1400km event?

I'm another. The section between Helmsley and Osmotherley would be lovely on a 200 AAA ride, but not on a ride like this. You'd also struggle to pick it out, unless you had local knowledge, so comments about riders knowing what they were in for can get in the bin, where they belong. 
LEL needs to think about what it wants to be - for a lot of riders, it's a well supported gateway into ultra distance. The mileage is the challenge and additional scenery really isn't necessary. If it's going down the bigger, harder, tougher route then it needs to be clear about that.

[quixoticgeek]

Sadly, I am one of them and, I have been booted from the facebook page for commenting about it.
 The weather is quite obviously beyond the organisers control but, the choices made for some parts of this years route are questionable. Great rides in isolation I'm sure but, as part of a 1400km event?

I'm another. The section between Helmsley and Osmotherley would be lovely on a 200 AAA ride, but not on a ride like this. You'd also struggle to pick it out, unless you had local knowledge, so comments about riders knowing what they were in for can get in the bin, where they belong. 
LEL needs to think about what it wants to be - for a lot of riders, it's a well supported gateway into ultra distance. The mileage is the challenge and additional scenery really isn't necessary. If it's going down the bigger, harder, tougher route then it needs to be clear about that.

Imho the distance is enough of a challenge as it is without making it needlessly hard by putting in bonkers climbs.

Has anyone for a comparison between the 2017 and 2022 routes? Would be interesting to see the differences.

J

[Alex B]

Imho the distance is enough of a challenge as it is without making it needlessly hard by putting in bonkers climbs.

To be fair, I think this year's really "bonkers climbs" (in the Pennines) are a result of the Yad Moss road closure, and out the of the course designers' hands. Designing a nice route from London to Edinburgh is always going to end up with something quite lumpy and overall the route is "only" approx. 1m ascent per 100m, so comparable with PBP -- though LEL has its harder climbing concentrated into discrete sections. I think a big change has been from a free-routed, to a mandatory, course. Free-routing seemed to me an important aspect of making LEL doable for some riders - in 2017 I used it at night to bypass the Linc Wolds (both ways) and the Howardian Hills (southbound): riding the big roads at night when they're empty just seems sensible to me.

[toontra]

I think a big change has been from a free-routed, to a mandatory, course. Free-routing seemed to me an important aspect of making LEL doable for some riders - in 2017 I used it at night to bypass the Linc Wolds (both ways) and the Howardian Hills (southbound): riding the big roads at night when they're empty just seems sensible to me.

Agreed.  There were a few sections in 2009 & 13 I chose alternative roads for various reasons.  That was one of the appeals for me of LEL over PBP.

[vorsprung]

Imho the distance is enough of a challenge as it is without making it needlessly hard by putting in bonkers climbs.

...I think a big change has been from a free-routed, to a mandatory, course. Free-routing seemed to me ...

That's part of the reason I didn't do it this time. "bonkers climbs" don't bother me.

[Chuffy]

To be fair, I think this year's really "bonkers climbs" (in the Pennines) are a result of the Yad Moss road closure, and out the of the course designers' hands. Designing a nice route from London to Edinburgh is always going to end up with something quite lumpy and overall the route is "only" approx. 1m ascent per 100m, so comparable with PBP -- though LEL has its harder climbing concentrated into discrete sections.

Yes - you really pay for those flat Fen sections. I didn't even make it to the Moss, the 20%ers between Malton & Barny did for me. By the time I got to BC I'd run out of spoons. Not sure that free routing would have made much difference tbh, at least not in that bit. What looked reasonably benign (113km. 1200m) turned into a real horror. Free routing probably works best at night and on the return, when you know what you're avoiding.

[Chuffy]

Imho the distance is enough of a challenge as it is without making it needlessly hard by putting in bonkers climbs.

...I think a big change has been from a free-routed, to a mandatory, course. Free-routing seemed to me ...

That's part of the reason I didn't do it this time. "bonkers climbs" don't bother me.

You is so Devon. 

[vorsprung]

Yes - you really pay for those flat Fen sections. I didn't even make it to the Moss, the 20%ers between Malton & Barny did for me. By the time I got to BC I'd run out of spoons. Not sure that free routing would have made much difference tbh, at least not in that bit. What looked reasonably benign (113km. 1200m) turned into a real horror....

The gpx file for Malton to Barnard Castle in gpxeditor says 1645m over 113km.  Which is 14.5 m per km.  That's a bit tasty.  The profile doesn't look too bad (to me, viewed from my sofa)
Generally, lots of little climbs are worse than a few large climbs
Usually, crossing moors in the North of England is arduous.  But the views are good.  Although it was far too hot, it must have looked loverly

If I was planning to do this I'd probably estimate it would take a while.  But I probably would have used the lower number from the summaries on the web page (1200m) that you mentioned!

The question that you and others are asking is: is it surprising, given the info from the event orgs that the particular route this time is difficult?  And is this route more difficult than necessary?

No, it isn't surprising
Yes, the route is more difficult than it could possibly be.  But events in 2022 tend to favour quiet, pretty roads.  I'm sure making it difficult isn't a priority

[billyam998]

Sadly, I am one of them and, I have been booted from the facebook page for commenting about it.

Why comment.  The route and profile are published well in advance.  Nothing routewise should be a surprise.  I don't enter AAA Audaxes and then complain they are hilly.....

There has to be one doesn't there?  - Smartass, you had to be there to understand, quite obviously you weren't there.

[Fidgetbuzz]

We did not make it difficult by design .. the Yad Moss closure was a very nasty late shock.
mandatory route . brings us in line with the rest of the world and in Danials judgement is required to provide a greater level of safety for overseas riders not used to riding on the left.. who we really wanted to keep away from going off course to save a few climbs , without realising what traffic conditions might be like

[Fidgetbuzz]

Lets just kick this around a bit . distance is about 117kms further than 2017 .. but you have an extra 11 hours 40 minutes . So that does not seem to me to say it has been made much harder   10kms an hour for an extra 11 hours .. surely doable if you have the resolve to finish.
The route was never planned to be harder .. Yad Moss closure made a huge difference .. completely outside our control
Failure rates .. my memory of 2009 is that it was low 30%. 2017 was high 30s i think . attributed to the hair dryer headwind across the fens.
This year ..my current guess would be 50% .. and i would  suggest that this increase is mainly caused by the extreme heat all day and every day.

[Ajax Bay]

Riders need to make the most of the cool of the next three nights to give them time to stay out of the serious heat of the afternoon on Thursday and Friday. Still it'll make a change from people whimpering about how cold it is overnight. Will the conditions mean a better finish rate from those acclimatised to such high (for England) temperatures, I wonder?
And it's 128 hours 20 minutes (1540km) before HD I believe (which is 11 hours 15 more than 2017 (1219km)).
The average minimum speed required in 2017 was 12.11kph whereas this week it's 12.0kph: easier then.
2013 was 'hair dryer across the fens' year. Five years ago it was 'just' a solid head/cross head wind effectively from Horncastle south to St Ives.

[Peter]

Sadly, I am one of them and, I have been booted from the facebook page for commenting about it.

Why comment.  The route and profile are published well in advance.  Nothing routewise should be a surprise.  I don't enter AAA Audaxes and then complain they are hilly.....

There has to be one doesn't there?  - Smartass, you had to be there to understand, quite obviously you weren't there.

I was there.  Admittedly not riding, but controlling secretly somewhere along that section.  Many riders commented on the terrain, some with irritation (and possibly a slight realisation that in fact they'd bitten off more than they could chew) and some with enthusiam about the staggering views.  Few with quite the charm you have displayed!  Perhaps you were expecting a KoM?

[D.A.L.E.]

I was there.  Admittedly not riding, but controlling secretly somewhere along that section.  Many riders commented on the terrain, some with irritation (and possibly a slight realisation that in fact they'd bitten off more than they could chew) and some with enthusiam about the staggering views.  Few with quite the charm you have displayed!  Perhaps you were expecting a KoM?

I think Deano took me along there earlier this year. I enjoyed it, lovely part of the world.