Yet Another Cycling Forum
General Category => Freewheeling => Topic started by: andyoxon on 13 February, 2021, 12:29:40 pm
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https://cyclingindustry.news/retailers-increasingly-concerned-by-price-rises-and-slipping-supply-schedules/
I'm getting the, albeit subjective, impression that component of choice 'OoS' with online retailers is more & more common. Trying to get a few items for a frame project & am not after latest kit admittedly, so there's possibililty of a discontinued element but an awful lot is of 'out of stock'. Perhaps it is a combination of 'COVID' cycling increase, & now 1 month+ into Br*xit...
Anyone else / thoughts?
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LBS told me they hadn't been able to get any bikes for months
It's covid+ brexit
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Mostly Covid, from what I overhear from the resident supply chain specialist (although she has had some intense brexit-related issues). The worldwide container shortage is a biggie. And a paper shortage.
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Lots of out of stock on the continent too.
Feels like i got the last set of Di2 Hydraulic brake levers based on how hard it was to find a set...
J
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We've had cardboard lead times shift from 5 days to 8 weeks. That'll hit companies with bespoke packaging (ie for protecting delicate parts in transit) pretty hard.
Container availability is down more than 20% - they're in the wrong place and not moving as they should.
Transport costs massively up, 30% in some cases.
Brexit, natch.
Covid, random operational shut downs due to isolated outbreaks.
Warehouses full and therefore expensive, with stuff not moving.
All fuel to the inflationary fire. It's coming for us.
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I now regret taking a garage full of cardboard to the tip the other week, and the week before.
Could have sold it mahsel
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I now regret taking a garage full of cardboard to the tip the other week, and the week before.
Could have sold it mahsel
I have a pile of cardboard packaging I need to take out to the recycling, but the bin is frozen shut, so that's gonna have to wait.
J
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Covid badly affected manufacturing in China and Japan.
Brexit has put significant barriers in the way of importing cycles and parts . Even from outside the EU there are issues - for instance China has a tariff deal with the EU. We aren’t in the EU any more.
Also many cycle parts supply chains operate through Europe. For instance, my understanding is that Shimano is/was supplied to the U.K. distributors by Shimano Europe.
There’s a shortage of parts. Big customers- i.e bike manufacturers, are going to take precedence.
It’s a mess - Covid + Brexit.
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Yeah, but we've taken back control, so well worth that bullet to our own face :-[
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Covid badly affected manufacturing in China and Japan.
Brexit has put significant barriers in the way of importing cycles and parts . Even from outside the EU there are issues - for instance China has a tariff deal with the EU. We aren’t in the EU any more.
Also many cycle parts supply chains operate through Europe. For instance, my understanding is that Shimano is/was supplied to the U.K. distributors by Shimano Europe.
There’s a shortage of parts. Big customers- i.e bike manufacturers, are going to take precedence.
It’s a mess - Covid + Brexit.
Shimano for example are saying it is down to unprecedented demand and it takes up to a year to increase production. Manufacturing capacity has not dropped but has not grown fast enough. It is nothing to do with tariffs. The U.K. distribution for shimano is and always has been in Milton Keynes.
There is also a worldwide shortage of shipping containers which does not help matters. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/shipping-container-shortage-is-causing-shipping-costs-to-rise.html - probably due to Brexit or Boris Johnson.
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Huge problems with availability of shipping containers between Europe and Asia and those that are available are anywhere between 4&5 times the 2019 price. Locally, a journey by truck between the UK and Europe that used to take 2days is now taking 7ish, which is fuelling a knock on availability effect too.
A
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It is nothing to do with tariffs. The U.K. distribution for shimano is and always has been in Milton Keynes.
It previously went to Milton Keynes (EU). It now goes to Milton Keynes (UK). Those are completely different places.
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It is nothing to do with tariffs. The U.K. distribution for shimano is and always has been in Milton Keynes.
It previously went to Milton Keynes (EU). It now goes to Milton Keynes (UK). Those are completely different places.
There's also the question of whether that's Japan -> Milton -> UK Distribution
Or Keynes or Japan -> EU -> Milton Keynes -> UK Distribution
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Anecdote on the lack of containers: Yesterday I was walking along the River Avon between Bristol and Bath. At one point the railway runs parallel on the other side of the river and I saw a freight train which at first I thought was just two engines. But it didn't sound right, so I looked again and saw a container. One single container, in the middle of a train of empty waggons. It was heading east – inland – so clearly whatever wasn't on the other waggons was meant to have been imports.
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It is nothing to do with tariffs. The U.K. distribution for shimano is and always has been in Milton Keynes.
It previously went to Milton Keynes (EU). It now goes to Milton Keynes (UK). Those are completely different places.
There's also the question of whether that's Japan -> Milton -> UK Distribution
Or Keynes or Japan -> EU -> Milton Keynes -> UK Distribution
As the sole U.K. distributor is possibly the biggest in the world, shipping stuff to one of the smaller eu based distributors first seems unlikely before or after brexit. The shimano shortage seems less bad currently in the U.K. than the rest of the world, particularly the U.S.
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It is nothing to do with tariffs. The U.K. distribution for shimano is and always has been in Milton Keynes.
It previously went to Milton Keynes (EU). It now goes to Milton Keynes (UK). Those are completely different places.
There's also the question of whether that's Japan -> Milton -> UK Distribution
Or Keynes or Japan -> EU -> Milton Keynes -> UK Distribution
As the sole U.K. distributor is possibly the biggest in the world, shipping stuff to one of the smaller eu based distributors first seems unlikely before or after brexit. The shimano shortage seems less bad currently in the U.K. than the rest of the world, particularly the U.S.
And yet the Shimano UK catalogue is produced by Shimano Europe BV
It's not so much who the distributor is as where/who the distributor purchases their physical stuff from, does it come from Shimano in Japan or Shimano in Europe.
Politically it would make sense for Madison to get their stuff direct from Japan now, assuming Shimano will do that, looking at the distributors for non-EU europe there is significant overlaps so wouldn't be surprised if they just get that from EU warehouses with associated extra costs.
As for Madison's size again looking at the distributor list, I'd have thought either Paul Lange with Germany, Czech, Slovakia, Hungary and the Ukraine or Euro Trade with Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, Greece and Kosovo would be bigger than Madison who only have 65m people to sell to without extra barriers (chances of them holding onto Ireland?).
https://bike.shimano.com/en-EU/information/distributors-list.html
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Shimano South Africa is also covered by shimano Europe. It does not mean the goods come into and out of Europe. It would make no sense from a tariff point of view or logistics.
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As the sole U.K. distributor is possibly the biggest in the world, shipping stuff to one of the smaller eu based distributors first seems unlikely before or after brexit.
Shimano services the whole EU from three big distribution centres in NL, FR and PL. Brexiteers do so love pretending the single market has no advantages, or simply doesn't exist.
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In some countries the importer is "Shimano $country" and in others it's a private company. South Africa, Tunesia [sic] and (of course) Israel are part of Europe for Shimano. https://bike.shimano.com/en-EU/information/distributors-list.html
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It is nothing to do with tariffs. The U.K. distribution for shimano is and always has been in Milton Keynes.
It previously went to Milton Keynes (EU). It now goes to Milton Keynes (UK). Those are completely different places.
There's also the question of whether that's Japan -> Milton -> UK Distribution
Or Keynes or Japan -> EU -> Milton Keynes -> UK Distribution
As the sole U.K. distributor is possibly the biggest in the world, shipping stuff to one of the smaller eu based distributors first seems unlikely before or after brexit. The shimano shortage seems less bad currently in the U.K. than the rest of the world, particularly the U.S.
And yet the Shimano UK catalogue is produced by Shimano Europe BV
It's not so much who the distributor is as where/who the distributor purchases their physical stuff from, does it come from Shimano in Japan or Shimano in Europe.
Politically it would make sense for Madison to get their stuff direct from Japan now, assuming Shimano will do that, looking at the distributors for non-EU europe there is significant overlaps so wouldn't be surprised if they just get that from EU warehouses with associated extra costs.
As for Madison's size again looking at the distributor list, I'd have thought either Paul Lange with Germany, Czech, Slovakia, Hungary and the Ukraine or Euro Trade with Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, Greece and Kosovo would be bigger than Madison who only have 65m people to sell to without extra barriers (chances of them holding onto Ireland?).
https://bike.shimano.com/en-EU/information/distributors-list.html
The uk market for shimano by price is about half combined rest of the eu, with 90% of eu sales going to France Italy and Germany. Some years U.K. even pips he USA making us the single biggest country. Maybe we are just overcharged. It seems bizarre that we buy so much shimano stuff. I am sure it has never come via European distributors. The shimano own distribution in eu tends to be covering smaller countries. There is a very very small amount of shimano manufacture in europe. I am sure brexit will affect somethings but not shimano, unless of course it is attached to an Italian or German bike.
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So you are 100% sure Madison receive stock directly from Shimano in Japan in a container all of their own and not from a warehouse run by Shimano which is then distributed to the distributors and not transported in the same sealed containers as that which goes to other European Distributors?
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I doubt it. AFAIK an awful lot of bike kit comes through the Netherlands. I'd put money on Shimano basing it's euro operations there too.
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So you are 100% sure Madison receive stock directly from Shimano in Japan in a container all of their own and not from a warehouse run by Shimano which is then distributed to the distributors and not transported in the same sealed containers as that which goes to other European Distributors?
I think it comes mainly from the factories in Singapore and Malaysia. As they are supplying the entire U.K. retail and bike manufactures, it will be multiple containers (if there was stock available). The whole definition of a distributor is direct supply from the factory. So for example Brompton or Dolan want 200 shimano 105 cranksets or wiggle want 5000 chains that all comes from the stock held by the U.K. distributor. Similarly setup for the large distributor in Germany. The warehousing and goods handling shimano have in Europe is relatively small and it is for where they do distribution themselves for example their benelux hub. It is way smaller than then U.K. or German distributor.
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Cannondale is in Holland and i bet everything else is unless you want a custom bike (frame) . Are any UK distributors going to import direct, a little market compared to Europe and will the manufacturers want to deal with small volumes. Prices will go up.
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'Shortage induced' component theft? https://road.cc/content/news/parts-shortage-sees-thieves-target-rear-mechs-cassettes-281675
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UK isn't the only place running out of stock. Our local asiatic superstore is running out of Patak's stuff and is a fortnight behind with the new delivery. Well stocked on thai, chinese, japonese and other non-indian stuff though
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UK isn't the only place running out of stock. Our local asiatic superstore is running out of Patak's stuff and is a fortnight behind with the new delivery. Well stocked on thai, chinese, japonese and other non-indian stuff though
It might not seem like it but Wigan is still part of Great Britain.
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UK isn't the only place running out of stock. Our local asiatic superstore is running out of Patak's stuff and is a fortnight behind with the new delivery. Well stocked on thai, chinese, japonese and other non-indian stuff though
It might not seem like it but Wigan is still part of Great Britain.
And presumably is experiencing the same difficulties getting various ingredients as the rest of the country.
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'Global demand outstripping supply' seems to be most mentioned reason.
Spoke to Spa about B17std saddles - in stock possibly August, likely next year, and probably not for <£100...
Though Brooks saddles are apparently not selling/posting internationally atm.
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The unavailability of Shimano stuff is crazy. For the first time in ages, I found myself needing (ok, wanting) some bike parts: I picked up a GRX 46/30 crankset on eBay, and realised I needed a GRX front derailleur to match the weird chainline. GRX front derailleurs seem to be ridiculously scarce, with used ones going for more than the new price on eBay! Then, of course, I discovered that as said derailleur is available in braze-on only, I need a specific clamp-on adaptor - which, of course, is also out of stock everywhere (though the larger version is easy to get hold of). It's as if the exact stuff that I want is the most difficult to find. :facepalm:
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Hmmm. Perhaps I shoudl be dismantling my now redundant bicycles and making a mint on ebay ...
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I picked up a GRX 46/30 crankset on eBay, and realised I needed a GRX front derailleur to match the weird chainline.
Mine works fine with a 6870 Ultegra Di2. It's near the limit of its travel, but it still works.
I need a specific clamp-on adaptor - which, of course, is also out of stock everywhere (though the larger version is easy to get hold of).
You could shim the larger one?
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... I need a specific clamp-on adaptor - which, of course, is also out of stock everywhere (though the larger version is easy to get hold of)...
Would Shimano shim (https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/262135585765?hash=item3d087f9be5:g:OWQAAOSwAYtWQMcK) 34.9 to 28.6mm work with larger GRX clamp adaptor?
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... I need a specific clamp-on adaptor - which, of course, is also out of stock everywhere (though the larger version is easy to get hold of)...
Would Shimano shim (https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/262135585765?hash=item3d087f9be5:g:OWQAAOSwAYtWQMcK) 34.9 to 28.6mm work with larger GRX clamp adaptor?
I picked one up on eBay (via Best Offer, fortunately accepted!) so I'n sorted now. :thumbsup: It's been a bit of a hunt for parts that should be pretty straightforward to get hold of, though...
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Shimano finned road disc pads are out of stock in most places i have looked. Was in LBS and bought last pair, he said it will probably be a couple of months for delivery at least. Ordered 4 pairs from Holland, cheaper and arrived here in 4 days.
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You only need those things if you're doing Alpine descents. Not a lot of call for that in Holland.
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Shimano finned road disc pads are out of stock in most places i have looked. Was in LBS and bought last pair, he said it will probably be a couple of months for delivery at least. Ordered 4 pairs from Holland, cheaper and arrived here in 4 days.
Thanks for the heads up of short supply. Just ordered two pairs of metal ones with fins. I want to use these for the ride to the sea side in the summer, if it goes ahead. I was going to wait until sooner to buy them, but if there is risk of supply issues. I'll get them now.
Which reminds me, I should have ordered a new bottom bracket...
J
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You must be feeling better QG, I hope.
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UK isn't the only place running out of stock. Our local asiatic superstore is running out of Patak's stuff and is a fortnight behind with the new delivery. Well stocked on thai, chinese, japonese and other non-indian stuff though
Patak is a British company. When hitchhiking up the M1, some years back, I got a lift with their accountant who talked about this new business he was helping launch. Not long after their products started appearing in supermarkets. Their Biryani paste is delicious.
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As the sole U.K. distributor is possibly the biggest in the world, shipping stuff to one of the smaller eu based distributors first seems unlikely before or after brexit. The shimano shortage seems less bad currently in the U.K. than the rest of the world, particularly the U.S.
Well rather than speculate re Brexit being the cause. I asked my mate who actually works for Madison if Brexit has been an issue for Shimano kit.
This was his answer
"Yes it has. Shimano is affected partially. Their basic to medium range is more expensive because of the European wearhouse and production site"
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........European wearhouse and production site"[/i]
:) That's shimano for you................
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As the sole U.K. distributor is possibly the biggest in the world, shipping stuff to one of the smaller eu based distributors first seems unlikely before or after brexit. The shimano shortage seems less bad currently in the U.K. than the rest of the world, particularly the U.S.
Well rather than speculate re Brexit being the cause. I asked my mate who actually works for Madison if Brexit has been an issue for Shimano kit.
This was his answer
"Yes it has. Shimano is affected partially. Their basic to medium range is more expensive because of the European wearhouse and production site"
So Brexit has made stuff made and stored in the EU more expensive for us. I think that was mentioned in 'Project Fear'.
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I was reading an article on the building materials shortage this morning. Among the various factors was that the cost of moving a 40ft shipping container from Asia to the west has risen from $1000 to $8000 in the last year 'becoz covid'. The article also went on about unprecedented demand for materials as people renovate their homes etc, the same can probably be said for the surge in bike sales last year (though I was rather hoping the 2nd hand market would be flooded by now with nearly new bike that people realise they didn't want afterall...)
Brexit is an issue, but not THE issue. A remainy mate of mine works for Maersk and says as much. When I was speaking to Ribble earlier this year about my delayed bike, the guy said that UK suppliers were shifting buying directly from Shimano Japan because they thought it might be quicker... But that is still beholden to the increased shipping costs.
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One of my raw materials (Soja isolate) is still stuck on the Ever Given - should have been delivered weeks ago. They are still trying to decide who pays for that disaster. But in the meantime, no production of this food stabiliser for my Russian customers.
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Brooks saddles are getting very scarce now. S/h ones selling on the Bay of Thieves for as much as new ones from retailers (who mostly don't have any, or have managed to find OEM stock from somewhere).
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It looks like some Shimano brake pads are getting very scarse in .UK. A friend of mine has a birthday coming up and I asked them "What do you want for your birthday?" I was slightly surprised by the reply that came back.
"What's stocks of disk brake pads like where you are?"
So they are getting a set of brake pads for their bike for their birthday.
Stocks are quite low even over here, but there's a few of the big German shops with stock, they just won't ship to the cursed isle...
J
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There's that many empty containers at the railhead for East Midlands Gateway* (A newish complex of all the main logistics players) they've bought in extra lifting gear to stack them higher. I don't know how it'll be sorted, or who's paying.
* Nicely landscaped and with lots of tree planting to isolate it from the nearby picturesque villages and with several new bridleways of varying surfaces.
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I notice on a Netherlands cycling Facebook page that bike manufacturers have a 55+ week wait for parts to complete bike builds.
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to add: "reasonably priced" (~ 25 euro) 11 speed chains are nearly impossible to find in Dutch and German webshops atm.
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to add: "reasonably priced" (~ 25 euro) 11 speed chains are nearly impossible to find in Dutch and German webshops atm.
I used to pay €38 for a KMC X11SL from Mantel. My most recent was €53 from one of the German places...
J
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We did a day trip to Ambleside last week partly for a day out but also partly because we both needed new rain jackets. The biggest outdoor gear shop in Ambleside was well stocked with the racks positively brimming over with size medium. Anything else and you could forget it. It was a similar story in most of the other outlets and choice was distinctly lacking.
In the end we both bought jackets in the Rohan shop. Pricey but very good quality and even more importantly, available.
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Cement products. I'm building an extension. I need cement, or readymix mortar. For the latter, the sole seller on Amazon who has any stock (none of the local DIY sheds do) is charging £15 for a 20kg bag. That's a bit steep. But wait - you want two bags? That'll be £45. Three will be £100. This is fucking crazy!
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My builder can't get sand, says HS2 (being constructed nearby) has bought it all!
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There's that many empty containers at the railhead for East Midlands Gateway* (A newish complex of all the main logistics players) they've bought in extra lifting gear to stack them higher. I don't know how it'll be sorted, or who's paying.
On this, I gather that since the EU put an end to shipping all it's plastic waste to Asia to burn, we are now buried in the things.
We aren't exporting anything to Asia, so all the containers are migrating here. No-one wants to pay (the ever increasing cost) to move air back to Asia, so they are making new containers their end and adding it on the bill... So much for single-use plastic. Single use ISO's are the next environmental crisis.
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I also heard that the bike industry has basically pre-bought the lions share of the worlds Aluminum supplies for this year.
My informant told me if you wanted to get ski-poles, get them now as there won't be any stock come winter. :facepalm:
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Cement products. I'm building an extension. I need cement, or readymix mortar. For the latter, the sole seller on Amazon who has any stock (none of the local DIY sheds do) is charging £15 for a 20kg bag. That's a bit steep. But wait - you want two bags? That'll be £45. Three will be £100. This is fucking crazy!
Try a Wickes OPC search Tim. It will be call and collect only and may involve a drive but it is £4.15 a bag where available.
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There's that many empty containers at the railhead for East Midlands Gateway* (A newish complex of all the main logistics players) they've bought in extra lifting gear to stack them higher. I don't know how it'll be sorted, or who's paying.
On this, I gather that since the EU put an end to shipping all it's plastic waste to Asia to burn, we are now buried in the things.
We aren't exporting anything to Asia, so all the containers are migrating here. No-one wants to pay (the ever increasing cost) to move air back to Asia, so they are making new containers their end and adding it on the bill... So much for single-use plastic. Single use ISO's are the next environmental crisis.
Can we turn the containers into housing at this end? 2 birds, one stone.
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Well, I'm told that a load of the Scottish Islands have had the same problem for years already and that they basically give them away. Thus everyone has one as a store in their garden.
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There's that many empty containers at the railhead for East Midlands Gateway* (A newish complex of all the main logistics players) they've bought in extra lifting gear to stack them higher. I don't know how it'll be sorted, or who's paying.
On this, I gather that since the EU put an end to shipping all it's plastic waste to Asia to burn, we are now buried in the things.
We aren't exporting anything to Asia, so all the containers are migrating here. No-one wants to pay (the ever increasing cost) to move air back to Asia, so they are making new containers their end and adding it on the bill... So much for single-use plastic. Single use ISO's are the next environmental crisis.
Every morning a train load of shipping containers leaves London carrying domestic waste to a combined incinerator and plastic recycling plant near Avonmouth docks. It carries 300,000 tonnes of waste a year and generates 307GWh of electricity a year, and there are at least nine other such sites around the UK. However, I expect this still only comes to a small proportion of domestic waste and recyclable plastic. As for the containers involved, I presume they're reused on the same run time after time. They probably wouldn't be much good for other cargo after that!
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We aren't exporting anything to Asia, so all the containers are migrating here. No-one wants to pay (the ever increasing cost) to move air back to Asia,
OK, I may regret asking this...
What happens to the empty container ship?
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Good point.
At a guess, I would say the container migration is a trend, not an absolute. Containers are obviously leaving our ports going places, some to or at least part-way to Asia.
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Cement products. I'm building an extension. I need cement, or readymix mortar. For the latter, the sole seller on Amazon who has any stock (none of the local DIY sheds do) is charging £15 for a 20kg bag. That's a bit steep. But wait - you want two bags? That'll be £45. Three will be £100. This is fucking crazy!
Try a Wickes OPC search Tim. It will be call and collect only and may involve a drive but it is £4.15 a bag where available.
Thanks - I'll give it a go!
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We aren't exporting anything to Asia, so all the containers are migrating here. No-one wants to pay (the ever increasing cost) to move air back to Asia,
OK, I may regret asking this...
What happens to the empty container ship?
The container ship isn't empty. It's just it may do China -> Europe with 20000 containers on board. But goes back with 10000 containers. It's not in Maesk or evergreens interest to ship empty containers back for free, so either they wait until the containers are full, or just write them off.
A lot of what the UK exports is services. They don't need to go in an ISO. What we import is physical goods. This causes issues.
Not sure what the solution is...
J
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I'd like a workshop/garage/shed so I could take one of the half length..
Does that help?
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We aren't exporting anything to Asia, so all the containers are migrating here. No-one wants to pay (the ever increasing cost) to move air back to Asia,
OK, I may regret asking this...
What happens to the empty container ship?
The container ship isn't empty. It's just it may do China -> Europe with 20000 containers on board. But goes back with 10000 containers. It's not in Maesk or evergreens interest to ship empty containers back for free, so either they wait until the containers are full, or just write them off.
A lot of what the UK exports is services. They don't need to go in an ISO. What we import is physical goods. This causes issues.
Not sure what the solution is...
J
A little digging out of curiosity and that isn't it.
It seems we do ship a lot of empty containers back to China, it is in the carriers interest for their clients to have empty containers and unsurprisingly it is more economical to load them on a ship heading that way anyway than manufacture new. The issue has been turnaround times, with ships unable to wait for the empties to take back.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-shipping-container-idUSKBN28K0UA
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So, bike tyres... new issues? PlanetX seemed to have four different road tyres, all out of stock, for popular sizes.
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Isn't that normal for Planet X?
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I rang our LBS today to see if they had any Schwalbe Durano Plus tyres in as I need some new winter tyres. He laughed politely at me and said they hadn't been able to get them for ages, and about the only winter ones they can reliably get atm are Goodyear 4Seasons so I've ordered a pair of those. I didn't even know Goodyear made bike tyres, but they have got to be a better bet on the flint and thorn surfacing around West Berkshire and Wiltshire than my go-faster summer ones.
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Sure it was Goodyear? 4 Seasons is a Continental model. I have them and like them. Perhaps Continental is owned by Goodyear?
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Yes, I was confused too, but Google says they exist. You may be right, perhaps one company owns both brands.
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Appears to be a different, coincidentally named, tyre.
https://www.sigmasports.com/item/Goodyear/Vector-4-Seasons-Tubeless-Tyre/R6ZN
In fact, the Continental is named GP 4 Seasons:
https://www.merlincycles.com/continental-grand-prix-4-season-folding-road-tyre-700c-45210.html
So not quite the same. But I also didn't know Goodyear made bike tyres. Reckon it's probably a new thing for them.