Author Topic: DNF rate  (Read 37721 times)

Re: DNF rate
« Reply #25 on: 10 August, 2022, 12:52:55 am »
I was there.  Admittedly not riding, but controlling secretly somewhere along that section.  Many riders commented on the terrain, some with irritation (and possibly a slight realisation that in fact they'd bitten off more than they could chew) and some with enthusiam about the staggering views.  Few with quite the charm you have displayed!  Perhaps you were expecting a KoM?

I think Deano took me along there earlier this year. I enjoyed it, lovely part of the world.

Hi, Dale - Yeah, Dean does that, even to people he likes!  I went up at sunset to check on a rider who was struggling with mechanicals, to see if he needed rescuing.  It was absolutely beautiful.  My main concern was the descents, which would be a bit hairy for tired riders, especially the drop into Osmotherley.  We rode up it the day before and it's a one in seven.  I was really pleased to still get up something like that!

Re: DNF rate
« Reply #26 on: 10 August, 2022, 05:09:45 am »
2 out of 3 of the people i was following on the tracker have packed! 

Is the DNF rate high?  Any stats?

DNF rate looks like it might be similar to 2017 and 2009. High by international standards. The 2013 route, largely John Hamilton’s making, had a much higher completion rate.

A combination of control “choice” and closures have made this edition hillier than I would have liked. This is also partly a result of some internal LEL dynamics that I won’t go into here. I’m very glad I took out lumpy sections on the borders, making the entire Scottish loop relatively benign. The heat is finishing off a lot of riders, though the Indian and Malaysian riders are thriving. I saw plenty of riders with gilets on in temperatures I would hesitate to ride in.

Re: DNF rate
« Reply #27 on: 10 August, 2022, 06:15:18 am »


Danials judgement is required to provide a greater level of safety for overseas riders not used to riding on the left.. who we really wanted to keep away from going off course to save a few climbs , without realising what traffic conditions might be like
Working for the second time at a control I can appreciate how important the judgement in favour of the safety of everseas riders is.
I have no way of knowing how apparent this is to a UK rider on the event, but comments made to me show that overseas entrants are, in the main, unprepared for British roads (and drivers). Even northbound I was acutely aware that some participants were in danger of forgetting to keep left. Chuck in fatigue as a rider leaves a control like Boston on a residential road and it could be curtains.
Without the mandatory route it's quite possible that overseas riders will see apparently good straight flat roads (A16 comes to mind) and chooses that as opposed to a route chosen for their safety.
As an experienced British rider you'll say 'I can make that judgement' which is true, but how do the organisers plan for everyone  while making it inclusive, welcoming, and safe?



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vorsprung

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Re: DNF rate
« Reply #28 on: 10 August, 2022, 07:50:24 am »
This year ..my current guess would be 50% .. and i would  suggest that this increase is mainly caused by the extreme heat all day and every day.

Yep, the weather is more of a factor than the route, amount of ascent, road closures etc etc
Riding in 30 degree heat means going slower and constantly seeking out water refills

ElyDave

  • Royal and Ancient Polar Bear Society member 263583
Re: DNF rate
« Reply #29 on: 10 August, 2022, 08:53:49 am »
This year ..my current guess would be 50% .. and i would  suggest that this increase is mainly caused by the extreme heat all day and every day.

Yep, the weather is more of a factor than the route, amount of ascent, road closures etc etc
Riding in 30 degree heat means going slower and constantly seeking out water refills

Not by any means of the same scale, but I took a very close look at my route for the week after next where I'll be off road for some extended periods, and being quite critical about realistic time to next available water when factoring in terrain and light touring load.
“Procrastination is the thief of time, collar him.” –Charles Dickens

Re: DNF rate
« Reply #30 on: 10 August, 2022, 09:17:32 am »
The gpx file for Malton to Barnard Castle in gpxeditor says 1645m over 113km.  Which is 14.5 m per km.  That's a bit tasty.  The profile doesn't look too bad (to me, viewed from my sofa)

The whaleback hills in that area can be utterly exhausting. Punchy steep bit at bottom, hill doesn't look so high, it turns not so steep, but the top recedes from you - it becomes one of those nightmares where no matter how fast you run, the hallway gets longer.
Then you finally get to the top, drop to the valley in a min and start all over again.

There is a reason the TDF lot wanted to come back to that area to race. The terrain makes for challenging riding that can break up a peloton and really add interest to a race.
<i>Marmite slave</i>

Re: DNF rate
« Reply #31 on: 10 August, 2022, 09:27:10 am »
We need to decide whether LEL is a distance challenge with a mildly scenic route or a TCR-challenge with deliberately tough parkours*.

Given the number of people involved in making it happen it shouldn’t be left to the whims of one or two people.

(I can’t be arsed searching, but my recollection is the changes between the Humber and Barnard Castle were introduced with a lot of “if you like brutal hills you’ll love this” banter which is why I’m not riding this year)

Re: DNF rate
« Reply #32 on: 10 August, 2022, 09:42:53 am »
I've cobbled together a route from London to Edinburgh (Fourth Road Bridge anyway) which combines the best bits (in my opinion  ;D) of all the LEL's from 2005 onwards, plus a few of my own changes.  I do this every June (at audax speeds so roughly 2 days of 350k) so it's had multiple tweaks in that time.

It follows the more westerly route akin to LEL's 2005/9 which in my opinion were preferable, and it's a damn sight less hilly than 2013 onwards  ;).  Probably not long enough or with suitable control points for today's much larger LEL though.
The sound of one pannier flapping

Fidgetbuzz

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Re: DNF rate
« Reply #33 on: 10 August, 2022, 09:49:59 am »

And it's 128 hours 20 minutes (1540km) before HD I believe (which is 11 hours 15 more than 2017 (1219km)).


Just in case it gets picked up and used again as correct .. 2017 was 1500 odd .. i think 1523 .. but it could have been 1519 .. BUT certainly not 1219 . and I do not think the final amended 2017 time was in excess of 117 hours .. I have 116.40 in my mind
I was an accountant until I discovered Audax !!

vorsprung

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Re: DNF rate
« Reply #34 on: 10 August, 2022, 10:20:50 am »
We need to decide whether LEL is a distance challenge with a mildly scenic route or a TCR-challenge with deliberately tough parkours

it is "mildly scenic".  For the other you want the Bristol-Glasgow-Bristol

Alex B

  • Headwind specialist
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Re: DNF rate
« Reply #35 on: 10 August, 2022, 10:23:14 am »
We need to decide whether LEL is a distance challenge with a mildly scenic route or a TCR-challenge with deliberately tough parkours*.

It's a interesting question, what LEL "should" be.

While the terrain this time is a small notch up in challenge from 2017, pretty much half a third of the route (south of Horncastle) is pretty benign, climbing-wise.

Overall I'd still say this was only a moderately hard route - we're not talking Andy Corless or Will Pomeroy levels of difficulty by any means. Similarly it's not an "easy climbing" long route, like Tomsk's forthcoming "Flattish ACME Grand" (which mirrors some LELs of yore). AUK caters for different tastes.

I suppose it's up to the organizers to decide what to offer. Personally I think the UK's "blue riband" event should show off the best of what cycling in Britain can be, and, given the very many constraints I think this year's offering looks fantastic. The North Yorks Moors are tough, but it's amazing cycling. The event is still, as advertised, "a test of your mental and physical resilience" but it's a fair one. I think given reasonable control discipline, the 12km/h minimum speed means finishing should be within the reach of any rider with a reasonable level of fitness and conditioning, and the appropriate mental toughness. (DNFs due to knee/arse/back problems are indicative of physically undercooked riders I think).

The British weather has thrown a curve ball this year. But that's what British weather does.

Maybe the challenge of the event could be emphasized more. I know that this time special instructions went out to Indian riders encouraging them to train in tough, hilly conditions. Maybe the same sort of instructions need to go out to British riders since some of them seem surprised that riding 1500km up and down the country turns out to be rather difficult!

Mr Larrington

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Re: DNF rate
« Reply #36 on: 10 August, 2022, 10:32:30 am »
BRITISH weather always does that. 2017 was the year of the Drowned Rat.
External Transparent Wall Inspection Operative & Mayor of Mortagne-au-Perche
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vorsprung

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Re: DNF rate
« Reply #37 on: 10 August, 2022, 10:56:48 am »
BRITISH weather always does that. 2017 was the year of the Drowned Rat.

And this year is the year of the crispy duck

bhoot

  • MemSec (ex-Mrs RRtY)
Re: DNF rate
« Reply #38 on: 10 August, 2022, 10:57:34 am »
I remember 2017 as the hairdryer, I guess the heat and headwind on the final day overwrote the memory of getting soaked in Scotland

Notfromrugby

Re: DNF rate
« Reply #39 on: 10 August, 2022, 10:58:13 am »
Maybe the same sort of instructions need to go out to British riders since some of them seem surprised that riding 1500km up and down the country turns out to be rather difficult!

Very much this...

FifeingEejit

  • Not Small
Re: DNF rate
« Reply #40 on: 10 August, 2022, 11:01:29 am »
Personally I think the UK's "blue riband" event should show off the best of what cycling in Britain can be, and, given the very many constraints I think this year's offering looks fantastic.

Needs a north loop from Dunfermline via Assynt, my hands, feet and legs are still hurting from the NCC600 Permanent this time last week...
Would also break a "few" more riders

Alex B

  • Headwind specialist
    • Where is there an end of it?
Re: DNF rate
« Reply #41 on: 10 August, 2022, 11:06:43 am »
Personally I think the UK's "blue riband" event should show off the best of what cycling in Britain can be, and, given the very many constraints I think this year's offering looks fantastic.

Needs a north loop from Dunfermline via Assynt

One of those constraints being length. If it was a 2000km event then one could really push the boat out (and drop the speed to 10km/h).

Mr Larrington

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Re: DNF rate
« Reply #42 on: 10 August, 2022, 11:26:22 am »
If it got any longer you might have difficulty finding enough volunteers.
External Transparent Wall Inspection Operative & Mayor of Mortagne-au-Perche
Satisfying the Bloodlust of the Masses in Peacetime

Re: DNF rate
« Reply #43 on: 10 August, 2022, 11:31:20 am »
We need to decide whether LEL is a distance challenge with a mildly scenic route or a TCR-challenge with deliberately tough parkours*.

It's a interesting question, what LEL "should" be.

While the terrain this time is a small notch up in challenge from 2017, pretty much half a third of the route (south of Horncastle) is pretty benign, climbing-wise.

Overall I'd still say this was only a moderately hard route - we're not talking Andy Corless or Will Pomeroy levels of difficulty by any means. Similarly it's not an "easy climbing" long route, like Tomsk's forthcoming "Flattish ACME Grand" (which mirrors some LELs of yore). AUK caters for different tastes.

I suppose it's up to the organizers to decide what to offer. Personally I think the UK's "blue riband" event should show off the best of what cycling in Britain can be, and, given the very many constraints I think this year's offering looks fantastic. The North Yorks Moors are tough, but it's amazing cycling. The event is still, as advertised, "a test of your mental and physical resilience" but it's a fair one. I think given reasonable control discipline, the 12km/h minimum speed means finishing should be within the reach of any rider with a reasonable level of fitness and conditioning, and the appropriate mental toughness. (DNFs due to knee/arse/back problems are indicative of physically undercooked riders I think).

The British weather has thrown a curve ball this year. But that's what British weather does.

Maybe the challenge of the event could be emphasized more. I know that this time special instructions went out to Indian riders encouraging them to train in tough, hilly conditions. Maybe the same sort of instructions need to go out to British riders since some of them seem surprised that riding 1500km up and down the country turns out to be rather difficult!
They could have made it much worse. Avoids Hovingham/Ampleforth. The route peels off instead of going down (and up) Chop Gate.
It doesn't swerve over Tan Hill way.

Looks like restrained routing to me.
<i>Marmite slave</i>

FifeingEejit

  • Not Small
Re: DNF rate
« Reply #44 on: 10 August, 2022, 11:36:58 am »
If it got any longer you might have difficulty finding enough volunteers.

Pfft, full Scottish experience, no controllers just receipts from shops, sleep in doorway until it opens if you miss the 10 to 17 opening hours.

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: DNF rate
« Reply #45 on: 10 August, 2022, 11:39:06 am »
Fucking bollocks is being spouted with ‘riders are surprised to find that riding a long way in the UK is hard’

Look at the difficulty of average LRM brevets and the DNF rates of average riders riding them. Look again at the DNF rates at LEL and realise the rates align with the worst DNF rates worldwide for sizeable entry brevets. Where events are aimed at hardriders (e.g. ALPI4000) the entrants tended to self-select. Weak climbers tended to not enter. A measure of that self-selection happened for LEL22 amongst experienced AUKs but has that occurred for others? If not, why not? Does the difficulty of the event match how it is pitched?
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

Re: DNF rate
« Reply #46 on: 10 August, 2022, 12:20:47 pm »
There is a reason the TDF lot wanted to come back to that area to race. The terrain makes for challenging riding that can break up a peloton and really add interest to a race.

Charlie Wegelius ex TdF domestique and later a DS for various teams used to live in our village near Malton on the edge of the Wolds and beginning of the Howardian Hills. He told me this area was a right PITA to train in as the hills were smaller but more vicious than most of the ones on continental tours and broke up your rhythm badly.
I think you'll find it's a bit more complicated than that.

Notfromrugby

Re: DNF rate
« Reply #47 on: 10 August, 2022, 12:34:18 pm »
Re. hills.
I am following a friend on Strava who posts daily updates. His altitude reading are about 11-12m/km in the hilly part of North England and Scotland. I suspect this will become lower as he heads back towards London. Overall, it will be just above 10m/km, which is give or take an average ride in England. I always lament the lack of hills in the west Midlands and still manage 9m/km in all my rides, sometimes more.
Moral is... there aren't that many hills according to the profile... the problem might be that the very vocal critics of the route probably are used to ride around Essex where anything higher than a railway bridge is a mountain...

quixoticgeek

  • Mostly Harmless
Re: DNF rate
« Reply #48 on: 10 August, 2022, 12:37:19 pm »
Re. hills.
I am following a friend on Strava who posts daily updates. His altitude reading are about 11-12m/km in the hilly part of North England and Scotland. I suspect this will become lower as he heads back towards London. Overall, it will be just above 10m/km, which is give or take an average ride in England. I always lament the lack of hills in the west Midlands and still manage 9m/km in all my rides, sometimes more.
Moral is... there aren't that many hills according to the profile... the problem might be that the very vocal critics of the route probably are used to ride around Essex where anything higher than a railway bridge is a mountain...

It's not just the height, it's the gradient. I've seen people talking about 18% gradients. Which is not a simple hill. Many will get off and walk such a grade just to save their knees.

J
--
Beer, bikes, and backpacking
http://b.42q.eu/

Notfromrugby

Re: DNF rate
« Reply #49 on: 10 August, 2022, 12:47:05 pm »
Re. hills.
I am following a friend on Strava who posts daily updates. His altitude reading are about 11-12m/km in the hilly part of North England and Scotland. I suspect this will become lower as he heads back towards London. Overall, it will be just above 10m/km, which is give or take an average ride in England. I always lament the lack of hills in the west Midlands and still manage 9m/km in all my rides, sometimes more.
Moral is... there aren't that many hills according to the profile... the problem might be that the very vocal critics of the route probably are used to ride around Essex where anything higher than a railway bridge is a mountain...

It's not just the height, it's the gradient. I've seen people talking about 18% gradients. Which is not a simple hill. Many will get off and walk such a grade just to save their knees.

J

They are very short sections, often down to a few meters... but that's the road engineering in the UK... short steep stuff is ubiquitous... there is no Hardknott en route or we would know about it