I don't think respiratory hygiene is here to stay, by 2025 life will be back to pre pandemic, international travel, crowds hygiene all as before.
I wonder if the issue is in fact about digital changing the landscape - rather than the covid hiatus.
Almost everyone has a GPS these days - so the value of having someone plot a route for you is diminished (and with Ride with GPS and Garmin you can probably find something interesting to ride quite easily)
Interesting question.
Small and X rated events will recover quite quickly and you could argue they have already.
From my perspective as a UK rider and organiser of events in Scotland I believe that the trend re controls will continue away from traditional village hall TLC to commercial premises and as a result we’ll see calendar events and DIYs becoming more similar in future. It’s conceivable then that there will be far fewer calendar events especially at 200km and maybe even we will see a future where only a limited number of “classics” will remain on the calendar.
Maybe it's just the Southern softies expecting TLC at controls that will end...
:P
I wonder if the issue is in fact about digital changing the landscape - rather than the covid hiatus.
Almost everyone has a GPS these days - so the value of having someone plot a route for you is diminished (and with Ride with GPS and Garmin you can probably find something interesting to ride quite easily)
I am always surprised by the number of people who seem to think there is some "magic" in the Audax routes... most are fairly obvious ways to go from A to B and almost all of them can be improved upon if mileage is not an issue.
I once plotted a route through the Cambrian mountains, just with the idea of going for a ride in Wales... it turned out it was the same route used by the Elenith to cross the mountains... well, guess what? It's the only bloody route you can pick to do that kind of loop.
Point is (before I miss it) there is still a demand for pre-packaged routes with that perceived "magic", since most people have no confidence with the idea of plotting a route, any route, even in their local area, they rarely move away from the pre-packaged routes their local club defaults on.
In the absence of any form of TLC at events, I doubt AUK would manage to keep membership in the thousandsThat doesn't follow at all. Most members don't ride any events.
In the absence of any form of TLC at events, I doubt AUK would manage to keep membership in the thousandsThat doesn't follow at all. Most members don't ride any events.
Geography and audaxer density is as much a factor in entry size.
Maybe it's just the Southern softies expecting TLC at controls that will end...
Maybe...
but the degree of TLC is the difference between a 400 that racks up 150 entries and one that struggles to gather 20.
In the absence of any form of TLC at events, I doubt AUK would manage to keep membership in the thousands
What's the point in reading a map when the route is compulsory and all you can do is follow the instructions?I wonder if the issue is in fact about digital changing the landscape - rather than the covid hiatus.
Almost everyone has a GPS these days - so the value of having someone plot a route for you is diminished (and with Ride with GPS and Garmin you can probably find something interesting to ride quite easily)
I am always surprised by the number of people who seem to think there is some "magic" in the Audax routes... most are fairly obvious ways to go from A to B and almost all of them can be improved upon if mileage is not an issue.
I once plotted a route through the Cambrian mountains, just with the idea of going for a ride in Wales... it turned out it was the same route used by the Elenith to cross the mountains... well, guess what? It's the only bloody route you can pick to do that kind of loop.
Point is (before I miss it) there is still a demand for pre-packaged routes with that perceived "magic", since most people have no confidence with the idea of plotting a route, any route, even in their local area, they rarely move away from the pre-packaged routes their local club defaults on.
Today's cyclists are so reliant upon the garmin, how many can read a map now? If its got a tickbox name thats all that matters for some. Just look at the Audax scene in Scotland how many are new events? Lets just talk about 2 and 3 hundreds they are all rehashes of old routes or parts of old 400 and 600s. I liked Audax but when you run out of new stuff to ride i can leave it for others.
A fair number of audaxers travelled a long way to ride a National 400 in Scotland a few years ago. I think it was support (relative to an X-rated calendar or perm) that brought them that fair.
I wonder if the issue is in fact about digital changing the landscape - rather than the covid hiatus.
Almost everyone has a GPS these days - so the value of having someone plot a route for you is diminished (and with Ride with GPS and Garmin you can probably find something interesting to ride quite easily)
I am always surprised by the number of people who seem to think there is some "magic" in the Audax routes... most are fairly obvious ways to go from A to B and almost all of them can be improved upon if mileage is not an issue.
I once plotted a route through the Cambrian mountains, just with the idea of going for a ride in Wales... it turned out it was the same route used by the Elenith to cross the mountains... well, guess what? It's the only bloody route you can pick to do that kind of loop.
Point is (before I miss it) there is still a demand for pre-packaged routes with that perceived "magic", since most people have no confidence with the idea of plotting a route, any route, even in their local area, they rarely move away from the pre-packaged routes their local club defaults on.
Today's cyclists are so reliant upon the garmin, how many can read a map now? If its got a tickbox name thats all that matters for some. Just look at the Audax scene in Scotland how many are new events? Lets just talk about 2 and 3 hundreds they are all rehashes of old routes or parts of old 400 and 600s. I liked Audax but when you run out of new stuff to ride i can leave it for others. 😁
the value of having someone plot a route for you is diminished
I can go to distant parts and ride a route devised by someone who knows the area, and it is pretty much guaranteed to be better than anything Strava's algorithms can come up with.
I can go to distant parts and ride a route devised by someone who knows the area, and it is pretty much guaranteed to be better than anything Strava's algorithms can come up with.
Is it though?
I can go to distant parts and ride a route devised by someone who knows the area, and it is pretty much guaranteed to be better than anything Strava's algorithms can come up with.
Is it though?
OK, maybe not always.
Still, the point remains that riding other people's routes is one of the main attractions of Audax for me. For others, chasing points or awards is the main motivation. It's a broad church.
A fair number of audaxers travelled a long way to ride a National 400 in Scotland a few years ago. I think it was support (relative to an X-rated calendar or perm) that brought them that fair.
I can go to distant parts and ride a route devised by someone who knows the area, and it is pretty much guaranteed to be better than anything Strava's algorithms can come up with.
Is it though?
I always review the route as I rarely trust organisers, unless I know them well. I have been sent on some dreadful A roads, because that's Audax innit! And the alternative quiet lane is not compliant with the 19th century rules of the game...
With limited knowledge of the area, I can often improve on the original route by adding a few km, just by using basic platforms like Streetview.
The technology is there for anybody who has never been to said area to plot the best possible route... that said, majority of people are lazy or lack that confidence
What some people enjoy is the chance to chat to strange men in sweaty lycra while eating beans on toast in a village hall, while others value the opportunity to retreat into their thousand-yard stare or to ride very fast in small group as a distraction from time trials or cyclocross. Or to do all of these things all at once. Not to mention CAEK.I can go to distant parts and ride a route devised by someone who knows the area, and it is pretty much guaranteed to be better than anything Strava's algorithms can come up with.
Is it though?
OK, maybe not always.
Still, the point remains that riding other people's routes is one of the main attractions of Audax for me. For others, chasing points or awards is the main motivation. It's a broad church.
I can go to distant parts and ride a route devised by someone who knows the area, and it is pretty much guaranteed to be better than anything Strava's algorithms can come up with.
Is it though?
I always review the route as I rarely trust organisers, unless I know them well. I have been sent on some dreadful A roads, because that's Audax innit! And the alternative quiet lane is not compliant with the 19th century rules of the game...
With limited knowledge of the area, I can often improve on the original route by adding a few km, just by using basic platforms like Streetview.
The technology is there for anybody who has never been to said area to plot the best possible route... that said, majority of people are lazy or lack that confidence
Lets just talk about 2 and 3 hundreds they are all rehashes of old routes or parts of old 400 and 600s. I liked Audax but when you run out of new stuff to ride i can leave it for others.[/b] 😁
I can go to distant parts and ride a route devised by someone who knows the area, and it is pretty much guaranteed to be better than anything Strava's algorithms can come up with.
Is it though?
I always review the route as I rarely trust organisers, unless I know them well. I have been sent on some dreadful A roads, because that's Audax innit! And the alternative quiet lane is not compliant with the 19th century rules of the game...
With limited knowledge of the area, I can often improve on the original route by adding a few km, just by using basic platforms like Streetview.
The technology is there for anybody who has never been to said area to plot the best possible route... that said, majority of people are lazy or lack that confidence
Depends on the organizer, I guess you get to know their idea of good cycling roads.
In more densley populated areas the red line on the Strava heat map becomes meaningless.
There's some cracking roads in Scotland that could only be added into a route with Info controls, and some people piss and moan about them, it also completely excludes them from DIYs because of what I consider to be backwards requirements for identifying you've been somewhere, the rules for SR600 make using them possible again, but not for points scoring.Lets just talk about 2 and 3 hundreds they are all rehashes of old routes or parts of old 400 and 600s. I liked Audax but when you run out of new stuff to ride i can leave it for others.[/b] 😁
That could be something to do with the number of roads?
Since the updates about 6 months ago stravas routing is a bit hit and miss. You can choose popularity routing or shortest and express a preference between paved or not.I can go to distant parts and ride a route devised by someone who knows the area, and it is pretty much guaranteed to be better than anything Strava's algorithms can come up with.
Is it though?
I always review the route as I rarely trust organisers, unless I know them well. I have been sent on some dreadful A roads, because that's Audax innit! And the alternative quiet lane is not compliant with the 19th century rules of the game...
With limited knowledge of the area, I can often improve on the original route by adding a few km, just by using basic platforms like Streetview.
The technology is there for anybody who has never been to said area to plot the best possible route... that said, majority of people are lazy or lack that confidence
Since the updates about 6 months ago stravas routing is a bit hit and miss. You can choose popularity routing or shortest and express a preference between paved or not.
Either way it invariably seems to throw in a bit of muddy bridleway
5 years?
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5 years?
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Well you have missed some of the best years of Audax up here. Quite a few were one off's, due to lack of support from Audax members . Why would racing clubs ( before sportives took off ) and DA's run an Audax if they never broke even. Our CTC DA ran 7 different audax's ,( a 12hr/ 100m in 8hr , 50m in 4hr standard ride could double as a 200/100km Audax ) last one was almost 30 years ago. Enjoyed seeing the country from the SW all the way up to the north coast, now its almost all based in the east.
I quite like thinking up new events - Berwick & Beattock, Canny Mans, Mille Alba ( :o), West Highland, Mull it Over & The Mull of Kintyre were all originals that ran on aone off basis.
Youd be surprised however at the number of gripes from folk scouring the calendar and expressing disappointment that an event wasn't running each and every year. Ive still got all the details of every event Ive organised and would happily hand these over if somebody wanted to take them on.
Generally, Id far rather put on a new event and risk it being a bit of a turkey than just running the same ones year in year out. The only exception I can think of readily is The Port Navigation. If I could ressurect a resting event it would be the Tayside Transgression.
On the continent most longer audaxes (400 and 600k) were already quite x-rated, AUK was an exception regarding 600k events with full services.
With the advent of fast selftests, more will be possible.
Yes, indeed, jetting to the other end of the world for a 1200 and returning within a week, that will be something that won't return that easily, so audaxing will be more self sufficient per continent.
On the continent most longer audaxes (400 and 600k) were already quite x-rated, AUK was an exception regarding 600k events with full services.
With the advent of fast selftests, more will be possible.
Yes, indeed, jetting to the other end of the world for a 1200 and returning within a week, that will be something that won't return that easily, so audaxing will be more self sufficient per continent.
Longer distances are achieved by multiple non-repeating loops from a central hub (often rural town) so riders return to their own booked accommodation (hotel/motel/tent)
I'm not a scientist, and this may be silly journalist scaremongering, but I read that the virus will continue to mutate for many years because it's likely that many countries will never manage to vaccinate the majority of their citizens. And inevitably some of the new variants won't be warded off by the currently available vaccines, even though they will be tweaked. So unless we have a competent test, track and trace regime for all travellers, we'll all be at risk. (And we'll all need new vaccines every year.)
Plus, we may well have a large UK population who permanently refuse the vaccine, so we'll be brewing our own new variants right here.
As did Mille Cymru Mk 1. But, there was a huge DNF rate after day 1, as per LWAB suggests.
I will never forget this guy in a blue shirt who showed up at the start of MC3, unsure of what it was about, where he was supposed to go or what to do. Almost as if he got carried away after his first BP and decided to sign up for something a bit more challenging.
Needless to say, we never saw him at the night control, I doubt he ever made it to the first control at all!
At these events, as well as those who DNF out of exhaustion or because they run of time or will, there are always a bunch of weirdos who have no idea what they sign up for and maybe think it's a charity ride with a broom wagon at the back
I will never forget this guy in a blue shirt who showed up at the start of MC3, unsure of what it was about, where he was supposed to go or what to do. Almost as if he got carried away after his first BP and decided to sign up for something a bit more challenging.Reminds me of a rider on Andy Corless' 1000 from Blackpool a couple of years ago.
Needless to say, we never saw him at the night control, I doubt he ever made it to the first control at all!
At these events, as well as those who DNF out of exhaustion or because they run of time or will, there are always a bunch of weirdos who have no idea what they sign up for and maybe think it's a charity ride with a broom wagon at the back
The clover leaf format of the Mille Alba worked very well. Each loop took you into different classic Scottish audax terrain :thumbsup:
Reminds me of the two gents who pitched up last at the Tongue control on the National 400 (2015?) dressed in civvies and with heavy looking bikes.
Both were really pleasant (more than they had any right to be in the circumstances) but Ive rarely seen a pair looking less likely to finish.
Im sure Scotrail came to their aid.
I've completed two 1000km brevets in Europe, only one had accommodation, but I could just as easily have booked my own BnB. I carried all my stuff anyway, don't see why cloverleaf events are the only way it could work.
Reminds me of the two gents who pitched up last at the Tongue control on the National 400 (2015?) dressed in civvies and with heavy looking bikes.
Both were really pleasant (more than they had any right to be in the circumstances) but Ive rarely seen a pair looking less likely to finish.
Im sure Scotrail came to their aid.
I think I know the two you mean and, yes, they did finish. I've seen them on a few other events and - a bit like the late Jack Eason - they always "get around".
As did Mille Cymru Mk 1. But, there was a huge DNF rate after day 1, as per LWAB suggests.More likely a consequence of the difficulty, than the clover leaf format
As did Mille Cymru Mk 1. But, there was a huge DNF rate after day 1, as per LWAB suggests.More likely a consequence of the difficulty, than the clover leaf format
Is 'my part of the world' the UK, England, Midlands, SE England, Australia or BRMs and LRMs on multiple continents? All of those apply at different times.Well it's laready been mentioned that Australia is now almost entirely X-Rated seems to have happened after you left, and from what I've gathered now only really exists in the South of England and other parts of England and Wales that the required mass of riders needed to work on that level can easily travel to.
I have always had a desire to do this ride across Wales and will now be looking to ride it as a permanent at some point and will look at other suitable accommodation along the way. This for me (permanents) is my way forward.
The clover leaf format of the Mille Alba worked very well. Each loop took you into different classic Scottish audax terrain :thumbsup:
One word missing in title. EST, no West Coast, SW or the North of Scotland 👿
I have always had a desire to do this ride across Wales and will now be looking to ride it as a permanent at some point and will look at other suitable accommodation along the way. This for me (permanents) is my way forward.
The Premier Inn in Bangor is just off the route, so you could avoid both the slog up to Kings on the way out and the annoying 7 mile diversion to revisit it on the way back.
The clover leaf format of the Mille Alba worked very well. Each loop took you into different classic Scottish audax terrain :thumbsup:
One word missing in title. EST, no West Coast, SW or the North of Scotland 👿
I didn't say it was all of Scotland's classic audax terrain. That would be a bit difficult to do in a cloverleaf 1000km event.
Maybe some experienced, genuine Scottish audaxer based in the west could organise something?
The clover leaf format of the Mille Alba worked very well. Each loop took you into different classic Scottish audax terrain :thumbsup:
One word missing in title. EST, no West Coast, SW or the North of Scotland 👿
I didn't say it was all of Scotland's classic audax terrain. That would be a bit difficult to do in a cloverleaf 1000km event.
Maybe some experienced, genuine Scottish audaxer based in the west could organise something?
Id offer to do it but Ive been decreed a faker by virtue of never having ridden Ower the Edge.
Wales end-to-end (corner-to-corner) and back is a cracking ride.I have always had a desire to do this ride across Wales and will now be looking to ride it as a permanent at some point and will look at other suitable accommodation along the way. This for me (permanents) is my way forward.The Premier Inn in Bangor is just off the route, so you could avoid both the slog up to Kings on the way out and the annoying 7 mile diversion to revisit it on the way back.
Audax has changed and will continue to change. So the answer to the question is "No". Because Audax will not be as we 'knew' it.Yeah, I'll go along with that.
Like it is no longer like it was pre-GPS. Or pre internet.
Wales end-to-end (corner-to-corner) and back is a cracking ride.I have always had a desire to do this ride across Wales and will now be looking to ride it as a permanent at some point and will look at other suitable accommodation along the way. This for me (permanents) is my way forward.The Premier Inn in Bangor is just off the route, so you could avoid both the slog up to Kings on the way out and the annoying 7 mile diversion to revisit it on the way back.
There are plenty of overnight options on a calendar BCM starting at 6am (and indeed @Blacksheep's permanent), most obviously finding a bed between Beddgelert and Penrhyndreudraeth, or at Dolgellau. For all of those you can check in when you pass in the afternoon at a civilised hour and slip in late at night coming south for all the hours of wonderful sleep that your speed allows. Bangor is far too short to stop: it leaves you with 300k to do.
That’s nothing, on an X-rated DIY to Lands End and back I slept under a moving caravan on the A303.
That's nothing, during a Cambrian perm a friend of mine died... then he finished with 2 minutes to spare! ::-) ::-)
During my one and only BCM I slept under a parked caravan on a garage forecourt somewhere a few miles south of Pen y Pass ... but you try and tell the young people today that and they won’t believe ya’Assuming garage forecourt after dark, young people today wouldn't believe anyone could cycle that slowly and complete a Wales End-to-end-to-end 600.
That's nothing, during a Cambrian perm a friend of mine died... then he finished with 2 minutes to spare! ::-) ::-)
That's nothing, a friend a mine arrived at the start of PBP and realised that he had left his bike at home so walked the route. He still finished in fewer than 80 hours.
There was an eminent auk who got so tired & disorientated that he decided it was imperative to hide his barrow in a field. He came to his senses an hour or two along the road. It took awhile to find the trike again, he finished on time.That's nothing, during a Cambrian perm a friend of mine died... then he finished with 2 minutes to spare! ::-) ::-)
That's nothing, a friend a mine arrived at the start of PBP and realised that he had left his bike at home so walked the route. He still finished in fewer than 80 hours.
I vaguely recall tales of an AUK who combined taking on PBP with pursuing a career in local politics. What ever became of him?
I vaguely recall tales of an AUK who combined taking on PBP with pursuing a career in local politics. What ever became of him?
I vaguely recall tales of an AUK who combined taking on PBP with pursuing a career in local politics. What ever became of him?
You mean local French politics of course.
During my one and only BCM I slept under a parked caravan on a garage forecourt somewhere a few miles south of Pen y Pass ... but you try and tell the young people today that and they won’t believe ya’Assuming garage forecourt after dark, young people today wouldn't believe anyone could cycle that slowly and complete a Wales End-to-end-to-end 600.
It seems to me that the Audax as Salar55 k ew is never really existed and as LWaB knew it only exists in his part of the world.
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During my one and only BCM I slept under a parked caravan on a garage forecourt somewhere a few miles south of Pen y Pass ... but you try and tell the young people today that and they won’t believe ya’Assuming garage forecourt after dark, young people today wouldn't believe anyone could cycle that slowly and complete a Wales End-to-end-to-end 600.
I was as close to “full value” as it’s possible to be and still earn my 6 points, but earn them I did.
Full value audaxers dont have the luxury of sitting in behind a fat arsed lycra windbreak to conserve energy. You could say that they earned the points the hard way.
I vaguely recall tales of an AUK who combined taking on PBP with pursuing a career in local politics. What ever became of him?
When was free route introduced?
When did distances actually start getting checked? So many classic routes turnout to be massively under distance when people go and make them DIYs
Indeed, I remember one poor audaxer having to ride half way to Dalwhinnie to get their distance up to spec following a Newtonmore grill based "200"When was free route introduced?
When did distances actually start getting checked? So many classic routes turnout to be massively under distance when people go and make them DIYs
:o
An enquiry needs to be held and the records corrected if the rides are found to under distance. We cannot tolerate fake audaxes.
When was free route introduced?
When did distances actually start getting checked? So many classic routes turnout to be massively under distance when people go and make them DIYs
:o
An enquiry needs to be held and the records corrected if the rides are found to under distance. We cannot tolerate fake audaxes.
I prefer quality over quantity. :thumbsup:
I don't regard quitting as the end of the world. It's not the Olympics and - to quote Mr Hall - we're not f***ing curing cancer.Never seen that quote before but it's bang on the money.
I prefer quality over quantity. :thumbsup:
But have you ever ridden a 600, or have you always come up short, is the question now.
This discussion has me looking at what I want to ride in this season, the 10th consecutive year of SR for me.Reminds me didn't you need to find something ridiculous like 30k to make the distance on the daylight?
I'm looking at rides I've not done.
Tayside Transgression 300;
Ower the Edge 400;
Mull o' Kintyre 600.
In terms of a Not Shit list, I'd say that works pretty well.
Obviously, I'd need to extend the historical routes which are under-distance.
This discussion has me looking at what I want to ride in this season, the 10th consecutive year of SR for me.Reminds me didn't you need to find something ridiculous like 30k to make the distance on the daylight?
I'm looking at rides I've not done.
Tayside Transgression 300;
Ower the Edge 400;
Mull o' Kintyre 600.
In terms of a Not Shit list, I'd say that works pretty well.
Obviously, I'd need to extend the historical routes which are under-distance.
Or was that when I mapped the current routeaheet for the twilight?
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This discussion has me looking at what I want to ride in this season, the 10th consecutive year of SR for me.
I'm looking at rides I've not done.
Tayside Transgression 300;
Ower the Edge 400;
Mull o' Kintyre 600.
In terms of a Not Shit list, I'd say that works pretty well.
Obviously, I'd need to extend the historical routes which are under-distance.
When was free route introduced?
When did distances actually start getting checked? So many classic routes turnout to be massively under distance when people go and make them DIYs
:o
An enquiry needs to be held and the records corrected if the rides are found to under distance. We cannot tolerate fake audaxes.
One of the aspects of Audax I used to enjoy most was the contribution of the organiser. When you have someone like Mark Rigby in the chair you were confident that the route would be reliable and interesting, the controls would fit the bill and he would invariably be at the arrivee to welcome you home. I would see him in a freezing car park in Tewkesbury at 6.30 am in January to hand out brevet cards for Mr Pickwick’s January Sale and and have a quick chat then send us all on our way at 7.00 am in the darkness. When I crawled in to The Royal Hop Pole close to or one occasion after the cut off he would invariably be ensconced at table 48 with a few other finishers rotating in and out alongside him. I always enjoyed catching up with him, offering to buy him a drink (he gently refused every time) and feeling part of a little club. Will this ever return? Who knows, but it was good while it lasted.
I suggest you leave AUK to people who think it may have a future (even if they are wrong).
Take your negativity down the allotment, or go start your own cycling body. Good luck!
Ensuring distance integrity for audax events in Scotland was patchy prior to 2010 when distances started being subject to an independent peer review. Before that, it was the organiser acting alone who set the event distance.Interesting, and makes sense as the road network has barely changed and it couldn't have been entirely down to Google maps increasingly having remote walking routes to mess up route plans.
It was common knowledge that many events were underdistance and significantly so in some cases.
Its no great surprise that a number of long standing events and their most ardent supporters have melted away from the audax scene in the last decade or so.
I would like to think that Audax will again return to some sort of normality in the future, but probably not for a couple of years at least and not until most of the World's population has been vaccinated. Until then I think it will be as quoted above. Sadly, I cant see LEL or PBP happening anytime soon!
We have had events for years despite the fact they spread the flu and many people die of that. Once less people are dying of covid than the flu it would be unreasonable not to return to normal. That is not the case yet, but we are fairly rapidly moving that way.
There's a point of diminishing returns, there's always going to be a point at which some people are going to be thrown to the lions.Of course, but...
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Yes, hence why the public vaccination programme isn't only Interested in high risk workers and those over 65, as it is with flu.
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Where are you getting 90% from ?Yes, hence why the public vaccination programme isn't only Interested in high risk workers and those over 65, as it is with flu.
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yes, but the 90% applies across the board. Everything is factored in, immunity included... the maths are really quite simple and you can only keep a lid on the thing if you implement some form of restriction (masks? No large gatherings? Some basic social distancing on public transport?).
Basically, while now it's the plague, next winter it will be a flu on steroids... if you don't do anything, you still will get 50,000 deaths, which I would like to think it's not acceptable
Where are you getting 90% from ?
From the trial data I believe some vaccinated people got covid but non sufficiently badly to require hospitalisation.
Do you have a link to this ? The most recent I have seen from AZ is from US study
Recent UK data showed the efficacy of Pfizer + AZ vaccines in reducing hospitalisation and death was about 90%.
AstraZeneca has updated the efficacy result of its coronavirus vaccine trial in the US, after health officials insisted they wanted to include the latest information.
The Anglo-Swedish firm has now adjusted the efficacy rate of its vaccine from 79% to 76%.
Further data from the US trial showed efficacy among the over 65s rose from 80% to 85%.
AstraZeneca said it now looked forward to getting US regulatory approval.
The company said the trial results confirm the vaccine "is highly effective in adults" and it remains 100% effective at preventing severe cases of the disease.
Do you have a link to this ? The most recent I have seen from AZ is from US study
Recent UK data showed the efficacy of Pfizer + AZ vaccines in reducing hospitalisation and death was about 90%.QuoteAstraZeneca has updated the efficacy result of its coronavirus vaccine trial in the US, after health officials insisted they wanted to include the latest information.
The Anglo-Swedish firm has now adjusted the efficacy rate of its vaccine from 79% to 76%.
Further data from the US trial showed efficacy among the over 65s rose from 80% to 85%.
AstraZeneca said it now looked forward to getting US regulatory approval.
The company said the trial results confirm the vaccine "is highly effective in adults" and it remains 100% effective at preventing severe cases of the disease.
^ probably this.
I'm not informed enough to understand the differences between covid and Spanish Flu, but I do understand the notion that if covid is allowed to spread in unvaccinated parts of the world, then eventually it may mutate into a form that evades current vaccines. In fact, it already has to some extent. So, it seems like a yearly vaccination, with a seasonal picking off the frail is likely.
Do you have a link to this ? The most recent I have seen from AZ is from US study
Recent UK data showed the efficacy of Pfizer + AZ vaccines in reducing hospitalisation and death was about 90%.QuoteAstraZeneca has updated the efficacy result of its coronavirus vaccine trial in the US, after health officials insisted they wanted to include the latest information.
The Anglo-Swedish firm has now adjusted the efficacy rate of its vaccine from 79% to 76%.
Further data from the US trial showed efficacy among the over 65s rose from 80% to 85%.
AstraZeneca said it now looked forward to getting US regulatory approval.
The company said the trial results confirm the vaccine "is highly effective in adults" and it remains 100% effective at preventing severe cases of the disease.
They were numbers presented by Whitty a couple of weeks ago at one of the press conferences... wouldn't know where to source them.
But even if it was 100% effective, which it won't be... if the uptake is 90%, then you still have 10% of the population with no immunity, so again, you need some form of measures to protect them.
To go back to the point, it's about whether you see organisers prepared to stuff 150 riders in a dormitory with 40 beds... I see it as unlikely
^ probably this.
I'm not informed enough to understand the differences between covid and Spanish Flu, but I do understand the notion that if covid is allowed to spread in unvaccinated parts of the world, then eventually it may mutate into a form that evades current vaccines. In fact, it already has to some extent. So, it seems like a yearly vaccination, with a seasonal picking off the frail is likely.
Spanish Flu is referenced quite regularly, I find little mention of the late 1950s flu pandemic (apart from a thread (by LWaB?) that I can't find right now). The lack of publicity of this event makes it hard to try and understand what happened then.
Ensuring distance integrity for audax events in Scotland was patchy prior to 2010 when distances started being subject to an independent peer review. Before that, it was the organiser acting alone who set the event distance.
It was common knowledge that many events were underdistance and significantly so in some cases.
Its no great surprise that a number of long standing events and their most ardent supporters have melted away from the audax scene in the last decade or so.
^ probably this.
I'm not informed enough to understand the differences between covid and Spanish Flu, but I do understand the notion that if covid is allowed to spread in unvaccinated parts of the world, then eventually it may mutate into a form that evades current vaccines. In fact, it already has to some extent. So, it seems like a yearly vaccination, with a seasonal picking off the frail is likely.
Spanish Flu is referenced quite regularly, I find little mention of the late 1950s flu pandemic (apart from a thread (by LWaB?) that I can't find right now). The lack of publicity of this event makes it hard to try and understand what happened then.
I didn't know about it until covid encouraged me to research other pandemics. Est. 30,000 UK deaths, so way below current Covid, 70-116k deaths in US. But, 1-4 million worldwide (estimated) so just as most British people are blissfully unaware of the Bengal famine which resulted in about 3 million deaths (half a Holocaust) let alone the part played by Britain in creating the conditions for it to occur, or the 10k Kenyans who died trying to rid their country of the Britishin the 1950s, I'd suggest that the lack of awareness of the worldwide death toll of the 50's flu epidemic comes from the same place. It happened largely in countries populated by people whose lives are not as valuable as ours.
Its a point well made. I came into Audax late 80s, and my peak (small foothill really) was mid 90s, and my recollection is that, yes, there was a preponderance of older men on 'fast touring' type machines (and very few female riders).
I wonder what age these ex audaxers were in the eighties, many were racing cyclists at a crossroads and decided Audax would keep them fit without killing themselves.
Do you define immunity as
1) kills the virus or
2) presents no issues to the infected person?
Its a point well made. I came into Audax late 80s, and my peak (small foothill really) was mid 90s, and my recollection is that, yes, there was a preponderance of older men on 'fast touring' type machines (and very few female riders).
I wonder what age these ex audaxers were in the eighties, many were racing cyclists at a crossroads and decided Audax would keep them fit without killing themselves.
This is almost certainly where the 'saddlebag & mudguard' image of Audaxers comes from (if it's still a thing).
Do you define immunity as
1) kills the virus or
2) presents no issues to the infected person?
Neither... immunity is if you have been exposed to the virus/vaccine relatively recently and have antibodies... that will lower risk to some extent, but it won't be neither 1) nor 2)
PBP only dropped the mandatory mudguard requirement in 1995 and national organisations generally took a few years to follow suit.
https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=117680 is the thread about cycling and previous epidemics.
Its a point well made. I came into Audax late 80s, and my peak (small foothill really) was mid 90s, and my recollection is that, yes, there was a preponderance of older men on 'fast touring' type machines (and very few female riders).
I wonder what age these ex audaxers were in the eighties, many were racing cyclists at a crossroads and decided Audax would keep them fit without killing themselves.
This is almost certainly where the 'saddlebag & mudguard' image of Audaxers comes from (if it's still a thing).
I did my first audax in 2006. I was on a carbon racing bike. Told it wasn't "suitable for audax" by more than one other rider. Don't recall seeing any other CF race machines. Did the Mille Cymru on it 3.5 years later. Was one of the roughly 50% of entrants who actually finished it (with comparative ease I might add) :smug:
I think steel tourers are now the minority by a long way, and heavy canvas Carradice is giving way to nylon bikepacking kit. Attitudes are changing and the narrow exclusionary mindset is almost dead. Its bloody great seeing more women, and doubly great seeing women who kick everyone else's arse. Long may it continue to evolve.
Nothing stays the same forever, audax will and must change appropriately, but there are many elements that I hope remain, especially the culture of volunteerism.
I would like to think that Audax will again return to some sort of normality in the future, but probably not for a couple of years at least and not until most of the World's population has been vaccinated. Until then I think it will be as quoted above. Sadly, I cant see LEL or PBP happening anytime soon!
My experience is that it’s no more diverse, it just appeals to a different segment. The predominant group used to be like the hard riders section of the CTC, that’s hardly surprising, the links were so close I thought it was part of the same organisation. On the rides that appeal to me, 200’s and 300’s, there always used to be a sizeable proportion of more casual audaxers, they’ve gone. It’s become too serious for them, the bikes, the look but mostly the attitude and talk. If after struggling round you feel like you’ve had your arse kicked you’re not going to ride another. Turn up for your first 200 in baggy shorts and a football shirt riding a cheap hybrid and you'll feel less like you belong there than I did 25 years ago. Of course, it's good that there's more women cycling, but the only ones attracted to Audax are those who can kick arse. The CTC group I ride with has an improving gender balance, around 60/40, but not one of those women (And not many of the men) are riding Audax. It used to be the other way round 80/20 at best, yet everyone in that group would have ridden some Audax.Its a point well made. I came into Audax late 80s, and my peak (small foothill really) was mid 90s, and my recollection is that, yes, there was a preponderance of older men on 'fast touring' type machines (and very few female riders).
I wonder what age these ex audaxers were in the eighties, many were racing cyclists at a crossroads and decided Audax would keep them fit without killing themselves.
This is almost certainly where the 'saddlebag & mudguard' image of Audaxers comes from (if it's still a thing).
I did my first audax in 2006. I was on a carbon racing bike. Told it wasn't "suitable for audax" by more than one other rider. Don't recall seeing any other CF race machines. Did the Mille Cymru on it 3.5 years later. Was one of the roughly 50% of entrants who actually finished it (with comparative ease I might add) :smug:
I think steel tourers are now the minority by a long way, and heavy canvas Carradice is giving way to nylon bikepacking kit. Attitudes are changing and the narrow exclusionary mindset is almost dead. Its bloody great seeing more women, and doubly great seeing women who kick everyone else's arse. Long may it continue to evolve.
Nothing stays the same forever, audax will and must change appropriately, but there are many elements that I hope remain, especially the culture of volunteerism.
The purpose of social distancing and mask wearing etc is to reduce R to less than 1 so the virus is in decline rather than growing.
Do you define immunity as
1) kills the virus or
2) presents no issues to the infected person?
Neither... immunity is if you have been exposed to the virus/vaccine relatively recently and have antibodies... that will lower risk to some extent, but it won't be neither 1) nor 2)
If 90% of the population is vaccinated the remaining unvaccinated have some immunity via previous infection then the R rate of say 4 with no intervention will be reduced to an effective rate less than 1.
With regard specifically to audax participants the vaccination rate is likely to be higher than 90% as the national average is brought down by groups with very low take up e.g. Caribbean blacks at 58%. These groups are not highly represented in audax.
Add to this the introduction of universal twice weekly testing for everybody and I think the events with shared accommodation will be fine.
If 90% of the population is vaccinated the remaining unvaccinated have some immunity via previous infection then the R rate of say 4 with no intervention will be reduced to an effective rate less than 1.
With regard specifically to audax participants the vaccination rate is likely to be higher than 90% as the national average is brought down by groups with very low take up e.g. Caribbean blacks at 58%. These groups are not highly represented in audax.
Add to this the introduction of universal twice weekly testing for everybody and I think the events with shared accommodation will be fine.
The above would be true if vaccination was a barrier against asymptomatic transmission, but apparently you are only a bit less likely to spread around the virus if you are vaccinated, not a lot... so the idea of herd immunity as a strategy to avoid social distancing has been shelved some time ago. I think the hope now is that transmission will occur with minimal effect on the NHS... that's the hope.
In the latter part of your post you are navigating in dangerous waters, so I won't follow you there
As for lateral flow testing, they are rolling it out now, they won't be able to keep it going forever, it's not free at the point of purchase and at some point they will have to start cutting... I don't think these tests will be free forever... that said, they might be available to buy at cost and maybe LEL organisers might have to fork out
Citation please.
I think the exact opposite is more likely. Now that most people are expected to work from home, flu will never be accepted as a reason for a day off.We have had events for years despite the fact they spread the flu and many people die of that. Once less people are dying of covid than the flu it would be unreasonable not to return to normal. That is not the case yet, but we are fairly rapidly moving that way.
Funny you say that, as I was thinking the same, but differently. I don't think we will ever be allowed to go to work with a flu and Paracetamol, like it was acceptable before... now that we know that spreading viruses actually kill people.
I honestly didn't know that almost 10,000 people die of flu every year, despite vaccines and all... if you asked me last year, I would have thought maybe a few hundred frail elderly, nowhere near 10K.
Now that we are all very aware of what respiratory viruses do, we are not going back to that way of living, it just won't be socially acceptable
People and machines will look different if you compare them with a quarter of a century between them. I guess I am now one of the hairy-nosed older gits I saw when I started, just out of my mid 30s. Maybe I'm less ebullient than I was then because audaxes are no longer an exciting novelty and I am tired. People like me in their early to mid 50s dont wear what looks like kit from the 60s because we weren't born then, let alone riding. Equally bikes once exotic are now the norm, and even long term stalwarts of audax (at least many of them) are open to their adoption. People can ride what they like, and some just like riding the bike they have always ridden, whereas others recognise that technology progresses in cycling just as it does in cars, televisions, aircraft, houses, and every form of engineering.This, really. There are growing numbers of fast roady types on carbon race bikes in audax, there are also older audaxers riding the old steel they've had since 1980, and there are veterans on new carbon or titanium. And I rode my first few audaxes on a hybrid! (though I don't think I was in baggies) and no one ever said I should be on something else. The sadomasochist police ("you will be made to suffer and be seen to suffer, you will be derided and be seen to be derided") are louder than their real life presence.
It strikes me that people on a hybrid and baggies are more likely to be welcomed now. I've seen a more diverse entry over the past few years with routes of entry from places other than CTC. This is in part due to internet spreading the word but also a growing interest in endurance (ultra) events coupled with bikepacking, and on/off road hybrid events (see TINAT as a great example). Audax is now touted in the cycling press as a 'must try' for cyclists, whereas it used to be a secret. In fact I'd never heard of audax until 2005, via this forum's predecessor, despite me reading the cycling press all my life.
If in the future people have to pay the £3 cost of a lateral flow test it could be added to the cost of the entry.
If 90% of the population is vaccinated the remaining unvaccinated have some immunity via previous infection then the R rate of say 4 with no intervention will be reduced to an effective rate less than 1.
With regard specifically to audax participants the vaccination rate is likely to be higher than 90% as the national average is brought down by groups with very low take up e.g. Caribbean blacks at 58%. These groups are not highly represented in audax.
Add to this the introduction of universal twice weekly testing for everybody and I think the events with shared accommodation will be fine.
The above would be true if vaccination was a barrier against asymptomatic transmission, but apparently you are only a bit less likely to spread around the virus if you are vaccinated, not a lot... so the idea of herd immunity as a strategy to avoid social distancing has been shelved some time ago. I think the hope now is that transmission will occur with minimal effect on the NHS... that's the hope.
In the latter part of your post you are navigating in dangerous waters, so I won't follow you there
As for lateral flow testing, they are rolling it out now, they won't be able to keep it going forever, it's not free at the point of purchase and at some point they will have to start cutting... I don't think these tests will be free forever... that said, they might be available to buy at cost and maybe LEL organisers might have to fork out
This, really. There are growing numbers of fast roady types on carbon race bikes in audax, there are also older audaxers riding the old steel they've had since 1980, and there are veterans on new carbon or titanium. And I rode my first few audaxes on a hybrid! (though I don't think I was in baggies) and no one ever said I should be on something else. The sadomasochist police ("you will be made to suffer and be seen to suffer, you will be derided and be seen to be derided") are louder than their real life presence.
Latest seems to be that there is "growing evidence" that vaccination cuts transmission. Some research suggests that two weeks after first dose of Modern/Pfizer people have 80% protection from infection, which presumeably means they cannot transmit.
If in the future people have to pay the £3 cost of a lateral flow test it could be added to the cost of the entry.
If 90% of the population is vaccinated the remaining unvaccinated have some immunity via previous infection then the R rate of say 4 with no intervention will be reduced to an effective rate less than 1.
With regard specifically to audax participants the vaccination rate is likely to be higher than 90% as the national average is brought down by groups with very low take up e.g. Caribbean blacks at 58%. These groups are not highly represented in audax.
Add to this the introduction of universal twice weekly testing for everybody and I think the events with shared accommodation will be fine.
The above would be true if vaccination was a barrier against asymptomatic transmission, but apparently you are only a bit less likely to spread around the virus if you are vaccinated, not a lot... so the idea of herd immunity as a strategy to avoid social distancing has been shelved some time ago. I think the hope now is that transmission will occur with minimal effect on the NHS... that's the hope.
In the latter part of your post you are navigating in dangerous waters, so I won't follow you there
As for lateral flow testing, they are rolling it out now, they won't be able to keep it going forever, it's not free at the point of purchase and at some point they will have to start cutting... I don't think these tests will be free forever... that said, they might be available to buy at cost and maybe LEL organisers might have to fork out
Latest seems to be that there is "growing evidence" that vaccination cuts transmission. Some research suggests that two weeks after first dose of Modern/Pfizer people have 80% protection from infection, which presumeably means they cannot transmit.
That's where you are incorrect. You can still carry it around and spread it by talking loudly, heavy breathing etc. It's less likely, but it's still "quite" likely
Latest seems to be that there is "growing evidence" that vaccination cuts transmission. Some research suggests that two weeks after first dose of Modern/Pfizer people have 80% protection from infection, which presumeably means they cannot transmit.
That's where you are incorrect. You can still carry it around and spread it by talking loudly, heavy breathing etc. It's less likely, but it's still "quite" likely
If you can't get infected, how can you transmit?
I didn't find them unfriendly, but I started several years after you and with shorter, local events. Plus I was usually riding them with a couple of people I at least vaguely knew already. And even then I was usually at the back, I guess attitudes are more laidback (even if the bikes aren't ;)) at that end.
This, really. There are growing numbers of fast roady types on carbon race bikes in audax, there are also older audaxers riding the old steel they've had since 1980, and there are veterans on new carbon or titanium. And I rode my first few audaxes on a hybrid! (though I don't think I was in baggies) and no one ever said I should be on something else. The sadomasochist police ("you will be made to suffer and be seen to suffer, you will be derided and be seen to be derided") are louder than their real life presence.
My overriding impression of the first audaxes I rode were just how unfriendly they were in comparison to other sporting events I'd done, and also just how many of the riders (oldschool, steel bikes, flamboyant nose hair) looked like they were absolutely hating every single pedal stroke. I came to realise that in that era audax had more than its fair share of people for whom people skills were, shall we say, a bit lacking. The good thing about ACF (and later YACF) was that it acted as a conduit to meet people with whom you already had some sort of connection, although for some YACFers that was a downside not a benefit. Sorry :demon:
These days I don't get that feeling at all, at least not from the audaxes I do (mostly Mark's excellent Tewkesbury rides). I'm noticing that I know fewer and fewer people, but that people are far more open to conversation. At least until they get to know me.
Latest seems to be that there is "growing evidence" that vaccination cuts transmission. Some research suggests that two weeks after first dose of Modern/Pfizer people have 80% protection from infection, which presumeably means they cannot transmit.
That's where you are incorrect. You can still carry it around and spread it by talking loudly, heavy breathing etc. It's less likely, but it's still "quite" likely
If you can't get infected, how can you transmit?
You do, the virus sits in your nose and throat for a while, but because you have antibodies, it doesn't progress any further.
It's quite common for vaccinated people to then test positive, upon exposure to the virus. The vast majority of them will never develop any symptom, but the fact that they test positive means they are potentially spreaders
When was free route introduced?
If you can't get infected, how can you transmit?
Is touching surfaces no longer a thing? AIUI anyone (infected or not) can transmit by thoughtless rummaging among the fruit and veg.
Perhaps you should share this with the CDC. From what I can make out as a layman, they seem to disagree with you.
No, I understood that the first time you said that. But what you seem to not realise is that if a person does not get infected they are only able to shed the virus that went up their nose in the first place (ie not much)
The virus isnt replicating in their body and they aren't shedding huge quantities.
I have the very distinct impression that you aren't fully understanding this discussion or the evidence you are citing. Either way, that is me out.
Ok, last post to you on this. You were banging on about UNINFECTED people in your previous post. Then you posted a link about INFECTED people. Get it yet?
Is touching surfaces no longer a thing? AIUI anyone (infected or not) can transmit by thoughtless rummaging among the fruit and veg.
Is touching surfaces no longer a thing? AIUI anyone (infected or not) can transmit by thoughtless rummaging among the fruit and veg.
Surface transmission hasn't been a thing since the end of last summer. The consensus view since then is that the virus isn't hardy enough to pass from an infected person to a surface and then onto an uninfected person, and then cultivate more viruses.
Nature article (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00251-4)
Lancest letter (https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099%2820%2930678-2)
Ok, last post to you on this. You were banging on about UNINFECTED people in your previous post. Then you posted a link about INFECTED people. Get it yet?
I never talked about uninfected people...
There have been positives to from the pandemic that will provide a good legacy for audaxing. AUK have become increasingly acceptant of electronic 'proofs of passage' for calendar events and are busy developing e-brevet phone apps. When my riders tested the e-brevet last December, it was warmly welcomed even amongst the traditional fraternity.
... I can only offer my personal event organising experience which is not representative of audax as a whole.
The conclusion of the lancet letter is (my emphasis)...Is touching surfaces no longer a thing? AIUI anyone (infected or not) can transmit by thoughtless rummaging among the fruit and veg.
Surface transmission hasn't been a thing since the end of last summer. The consensus view since then is that the virus isn't hardy enough to pass from an infected person to a surface and then onto an uninfected person, and then cultivate more viruses.
Nature article (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00251-4)
Lancest letter (https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099%2820%2930678-2)
^ this
The evolution of the discussion of means of transmission has been fascinating. A really weird collision of science and politics, as well as science and science.
Ok, last post to you on this. You were banging on about UNINFECTED people in your previous post. Then you posted a link about INFECTED people. Get it yet?
I never talked about uninfected people...
I'm afraid you did. If a virus has not replicated within you then you are not infected. A virus needs to introduce its genetic material into your cells and hijack the cell's internal machinery to make more virus particles. This is what infection means, otherwise me having some viral RNA on my fingertip would constitute an 'infection', which clearly it does not. Inhaling some virus and having it sit in your nose without entering your cells is not infection.
There have been positives to from the pandemic that will provide a good legacy for audaxing. AUK have become increasingly acceptant of electronic 'proofs of passage' for calendar events and are busy developing e-brevet phone apps. When my riders tested the e-brevet last December, it was warmly welcomed even amongst the traditional fraternity.
Oh god this is going to turn into a I fo controls argument now
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Various routes that are impossible without them or an appropriate replacement.Oh god this is going to turn into a I fo controls argument now
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Ha ha... no, but would anyone miss them if they're gone?
Various routes that are impossible without them or an appropriate replacement.Oh god this is going to turn into a I fo controls argument now
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Ha ha... no, but would anyone miss them if they're gone?
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Repeated loops should no longer be outlawed. They may not be pretty, but whenever there are restrictions on travel, they are a practical option.Yup, sounds wholly sensible.
Long events may, regrettably, have to be restructured - a 600 being back-to-back 300s or 400/200 for example, putting the onus on the individual rider to sort out sleep accomodation between the two.
.
Fresh data, one dose onlyThat sounds about right and is completely consistent with 76% for symptomatic disease and 100% for hospitalisation after completing the two doses.
Symptomatic disease -60%
hospitalisation -80%
So we are not looking at anywhere near 95-99% which is needed to remove all restrictions.
In Chile, where 50% of the population have been vaccinated (pfizer + Sinovac), infections are rising rapidly... so that's not very promising
Fresh data, one dose onlyThat sounds about right and is completely consistent with 76% for symptomatic disease and 100% for hospitalisation after completing the two doses.
Symptomatic disease -60%
hospitalisation -80%
So we are not looking at anywhere near 95-99% which is needed to remove all restrictions.
In Chile, where 50% of the population have been vaccinated (pfizer + Sinovac), infections are rising rapidly... so that's not very promising
To be clear about infected, transmission,etc. Firstly you inhale the virus. It is highly unlikely that the amount inhaled and able to cause infection would show up on a PCR test or lateral flow test. The virus attaches to the cells and gets inside where it replicates first in the mucosal cells of the nasopharynx. The cells then Rupture and reinfect other cells. At this point after about 3-5 days of this cycle your PCR will become positive. However the vaccine has made no difference to the infection so far as the virus is still not “inside” the body.Useful info. :thumbsup:
Eventually the number of cells infected gets to a level where virus enters the blood stream and this is the point at which the vaccine will start to be of benefit and stop you becoming seriously ill.
To stop transmission from person to person completely you need a mucosal antibody and a vaccine delivered through the nose. These are under developments.
Repeated loops should no longer be outlawed. They may not be pretty, but whenever there are restrictions on travel, they are a practical option.Yup, sounds wholly sensible.
Long events may, regrettably, have to be restructured - a 600 being back-to-back 300s or 400/200 for example, putting the onus on the individual rider to sort out sleep accomodation between the two.
.
(The loops thing has been a no-brainer since the beginning. Except to the AUK board ... )
To be clear about infected, transmission,etc. Firstly you inhale the virus. It is highly unlikely that the amount inhaled and able to cause infection would show up on a PCR test or lateral flow test. The virus attaches to the cells and gets inside where it replicates first in the mucosal cells of the nasopharynx. The cells then Rupture and reinfect other cells. At this point after about 3-5 days of this cycle your PCR will become positive. However the vaccine has made no difference to the infection so far as the virus is still not “inside” the body.So can you explain why people who live with vaccinated health workers were less likely to be infected than people who live with unvaccinated health workers?
Eventually the number of cells infected gets to a level where virus enters the blood stream and this is the point at which the vaccine will start to be of benefit and stop you becoming seriously ill.
To stop transmission from person to person completely you need a mucosal antibody and a vaccine delivered through the nose. These are under developments.
Such as gps track or the eBrevet app, which works but for some reason doesn't seem to be in use on actual rides yet.Various routes that are impossible without them or an appropriate replacement.Oh god this is going to turn into a I fo controls argument now
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Ha ha... no, but would anyone miss them if they're gone?
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I think the exact opposite is more likely. Now that most people are expected to work from home, flu will never be accepted as a reason for a day off.
To be clear about infected, transmission,etc. Firstly you inhale the virus. It is highly unlikely that the amount inhaled and able to cause infection would show up on a PCR test or lateral flow test. The virus attaches to the cells and gets inside where it replicates first in the mucosal cells of the nasopharynx. The cells then Rupture and reinfect other cells. At this point after about 3-5 days of this cycle your PCR will become positive. However the vaccine has made no difference to the infection so far as the virus is still not “inside” the body.So can you explain why people who live with vaccinated health workers were less likely to be infected than people who live with unvaccinated health workers?
Eventually the number of cells infected gets to a level where virus enters the blood stream and this is the point at which the vaccine will start to be of benefit and stop you becoming seriously ill.
To stop transmission from person to person completely you need a mucosal antibody and a vaccine delivered through the nose. These are under developments.
It is highly unlikely that the amount inhaled and able to cause infection would show up on a PCR test or lateral flow test.
At this point I'm curious as to why you are answering a question that was directed at chrisbainbridge, who is a medical professional.
Chris has already refuted one of your claims when he said this..It is highly unlikely that the amount inhaled and able to cause infection would show up on a PCR test or lateral flow test.
...which directly contradicted you.
Is this a battle between health professionals? May we know your medical credentials please, in order that we may gauge which one of you is speaking from a position of expertise? I'm just a layman, and reliant on those who know what they are talking about.
Interesting. My dog howls every time GD makes a post with percentages in it.
His knowledge of epidemiological modelling is limited to kermack-mckendrick which is quite outdated so perhaps you could give some more modern insights. I agree no organiser would pay for something that is currently free.(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210406/c1eda3b087407bf5bc97c02653eda56e.jpg)Interesting. My dog howls every time GD makes a post with percentages in it.
Probably prefers fractional notation... that can be sorted
More to the point: lateral flow test kits retail at £ 200 for a pack of 25... right now no organiser would commit to that
I agree no organiser would pay for something that is currently free.
Of course you can require people bring their own which they have to hand in exchange for the brevet card. It could be mandated by AUK.I agree no organiser would pay for something that is currently free.
Of course... but you can't get large quantities and certainly you can't rely on riders "bringing their own", as you know half of them won't and after all you are there to run an event, not to be a cop.
Of course, I have also worked out that if you run a lot of events, you can turn quite a big profit by charging for test to everyone and making 10 quid per rider that doesn't show up (provided these tests have a long enough shelf life), but I don't think any organiser worth their salt will be interested in "making money" this way.
Anyway, I detect a level of sarcasm and non-constructive targeted criticism around which is frankly annoying. We don't have to have this conversation, or any conversation, for what that matters.
Problem with an EBrevet? You would return to the original form of Audax, being that the organizers route. Who would want to check all the permutations. Never understood why someone enters an Audax and then decides the route is not good enough. These people could just do a diy?It could be done to be just like current non mandatory route audaxes. You might have say 4 controls and rather than picking up a receipt you click on a button on your phone.
Skimming this thread tells me the spirit of Audax is alive and well ;D
That's exactly how the eBrevet app works. The unworthy are still allowed to skip the hills.
Filling audaxes has never been so easy!
Filling audaxes has never been so easy!
refunding riders when you have too many is the painful part... :'(
Why don't you two have a read of the Warwick modelling (just published), in particular its rubric and the first table, and then have an informed discussion on this?At this point I'm curious as to why you are answering a question that was directed at chrisbainbridge, who is a medical professional.
Chris has already refuted one of your claims when he said this..It is highly unlikely that the amount inhaled and able to cause infection would show up on a PCR test or lateral flow test.
...which directly contradicted you.
Is this a battle between health professionals? May we know your medical credentials please, in order that we may gauge which one of you is speaking from a position of expertise? I'm just a layman, and reliant on those who know what they are talking about.
Nobody contradicted anybody. There was some uncertainty among some members as to which extent vaccines stop transmission, hopefully we all agree they don't... or they do to some extent, but not to a large extent. Not enough...
That's the bottom line and that's what matters, then you can go on with your semantics about the definition of the word "infection", but do it alone, possibly somewhere else
Why don't you two have a read of the Warwick modelling (just published), in particular its rubric and the first table, and then have an informed discussion on this?
Why don't you two have a read of the Warwick modelling (just published), in particular its rubric and the first table, and then have an informed discussion on this?
Why would I do that? If you read the title of the thread, it has nothing to do with the mechanism of action of vaccines or how infection takes hold.
It is about whether Audax will change or stay the same in the wake of the pandemic.
Incidentally, we ended up talking about whether (or not) vaccines will prevent transmission and the consensus is they will to some extent, but not to the extent required to just go around coughing in each other's face on a train as it was common place pre-2020.
So the RELEVANT question, is whether or not Audax will have to change as a result... some think yes, some think not, some interesting perspectives... and of course being YACF, a lot of the usual bullying...
I am not interested in being discredited, because there is nothing to discredit...
I checked to see when vaccines were first mentioned on this thread.
Reply #7 (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=118846.msg2607882#msg2607882)
Ooh! That was below the belt. ;)
Never understood why someone enters an Audax and then decides the route is not good enough. These people could just do a diy?Because cyclists are the most
Most people's variations on the route are the equivalent of picking olives out of the salad at a restaurant. Or occasionally, skipping the salad.
Why don't these people eat packed lunch on a park bench instead?
Most people's variations on the route are the equivalent of picking olives out of the salad at a restaurant. Or occasionally, skipping the salad.
Why don't these people eat packed lunch on a park bench instead?
If ever there was a really audaxy thing to do, that is it.
You want to be careful with posts like that. It's like touching positive poles together...you could end up blowing up the universe.
That's exactly how the eBrevet app works. The unworthy are still allowed to skip the hills.
Perhaps I am missing the point, but how does this differ for a paper brevet card?
PS. I am a fan of the new e-brevet. It is very easy to use for both rider and organiser. In fact there is a lot less hassle than arranging printing, labelling and distribution of hard-based cards. Completion of a brevet is also notified to the organiser via e-mail, which is great for x-rated events. My riders also loved it when trialling it last December.
PPS. After ranting earlier about this thread going off-topic, I am now going off topic. :-[
Filling audaxes has never been so easy!
refunding riders when you have too many is the painful part... :'(
No Sportives up and running? 👿
Repeated loops should no longer be outlawed. They may not be pretty, but whenever there are restrictions on travel, they are a practical option.Yup, sounds wholly sensible.
Long events may, regrettably, have to be restructured - a 600 being back-to-back 300s or 400/200 for example, putting the onus on the individual rider to sort out sleep accomodation between the two.
.
(The loops thing has been a no-brainer since the beginning. Except to the AUK board ... )
Maybe I am just fortunate with my local roads but I easily managed to squeeze an audax-compliant 200k into a 10k radius from my house without getting too silly. It didn't feel too audacious but it was actually a really pleasant route that made me appreciate the variety of local scenery available to me with flat bits, lumpy bits, a bit of urban, some parks etc.
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51097240372_74c6724384.jpg)
^ mattc spaketh some sense. ( :-* )
Also, rider's local knowledge comes into play even if they aren't local. Some orgs dont mind busy main roads. I hate them and if I can find a quiet alternative I'll take it, even if it means more hills. Organisers are (I think) obliged to take the shortest route between controls...but this doesn't mean it is the nicest route depending on the POV of the riders. Rather than bitch about it, I'll just take an alternative.
Repeated loops should no longer be outlawed. They may not be pretty, but whenever there are restrictions on travel, they are a practical option.Yup, sounds wholly sensible.
Long events may, regrettably, have to be restructured - a 600 being back-to-back 300s or 400/200 for example, putting the onus on the individual rider to sort out sleep accomodation between the two.
.
(The loops thing has been a no-brainer since the beginning. Except to the AUK board ... )
Maybe I am just fortunate with my local roads but I easily managed to squeeze an audax-compliant 200k into a 10k radius from my house without getting too silly. It didn't feel too audacious but it was actually a really pleasant route that made me appreciate the variety of local scenery available to me with flat bits, lumpy bits, a bit of urban, some parks etc.
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/51097240372_74c6724384.jpg)
Off thread because I am not thinking of audax and certainly not AUK but THAT'S COOL :) :) As someone stuck in a 10km radius restriction it gives me real morale boosting hope - but criss-crossing Limoges could give a fearful positive altitude figure ???
If you don't like it you could always leave and come back again.
I can't remember why you left the last time, but I used to enjoy your posts about wheel building.
OT response to GD's post(click to show/hide)
One thing Ive learned over the years about YACF is that, as in life, on any given subject there are
(i) a surprisingly large number of people who think they know more about something than they really do and
(ii) at least one other person who actually does knows significantly more.
The trick is to know which one you are on any given subject.
OT response to GD's post(click to show/hide)
It is...
When you question someone's posts validity based on whether they are in a position to be believed or not, then it is bullying, I'm afraid.
The reason most of us use a nickname of some sort is because we don't want to disclose who we are with the rest of the world... there are plenty of reasons for that. I don't know who you are, other than you wear a pink YACF jersey, and frankly I don't care who you are. If I did, I would ask you privately.
The consequence is that you have to accept that you are talking about viruses with someone who could be an epidemiologist or a carpenter or anything in between and that's the way fora work.
Whether I have an association with the NHS or not is immaterial. As a matter of fact, I have spent most of my life in science, but never had to deal with viruses... where do I stand in your scale? Probably somewhere in between a doctor and a builder? Would that validate my reasoning or would that mean it's worthless? Or maybe somewhere in between... does it matter? It's a place for conversation and discussion, it's not a place to create knowledge.
This is no place to discuss our role in society... unless someone decides that they are quite happy for everybody to know their role...
I think John Stonebridge has expressed the point about expertise succintly. If I start spaffing off about IT people will know to give little weight to my words because I literally don't know what the fuck I am talking about. Concomitantly, that poses a problem for me assessing the IT knowledge of others. See the problem? They might sound authoratitive...but they could be bullshitting and I wouldn't be able to tell because of the paucity of my knowledge. So I am reliant on them either giving some sort of evidence of to back up their assertions, whether it be citations of credentials or other qualified people either agreeing with them or contradicting them.
One thing Ive learned over the years about YACF is that, as in life, on any given subject there are
(i) a surprisingly large number of people who think they know more about something than they really do and
(ii) at least one other person who actually does knows significantly more.
The trick is to know which one you are on any given subject.
If you are mostly a (i) then its possible you might feel systematically bullied on here as online tolerance levels for folk havering is likely to be lower than in other aspects of life eg work (*), bike rides, being a guest or host in somebody's home, the local cafe etc etc.
Rather than pretend I know anything on useful stuff like Covid or IT or suchlike I embrace the tremendously positive feeling knowing that the subjects on which I can be considered expert are extremely limited and largely useless. Edinburgh bus routes, the best way to cycle to Aberdeen, Scottish audaxes since 1982 and bakeries of east Central Scotland Im your man. Anything else, I'll likely to be talking mince (not that it wil stop me, its not like posting on YACF = giving evidence under oath).
(*) based on my white collar big company Head Office existence. I hope that in other workplaces its more normal and acceptable to tell somebody straight that they are talking shite.
Here's the thing... some epidemiologists are also cyclists.
You'll hate this, but a lot of shite is also talked here about cycling.
Where does that leave the value of this forum?
An opinion without knowledge has little value. Maybe that is where you are going wrong with your nihilistic view of this place.
Tell us about your white collar job🤭Naw.
An opinion without knowledge has little value. Maybe that is where you are going wrong with your nihilistic view of this place.
But you can't filter it... it's pointless of you to ask for an ID that reassures that a comment is indeed coming from a valued source.
There is no practical way to double check, I could tell you any sort of bullshit.
:thumbsup:........
I hope that in other workplaces its more normal and acceptable to tell somebody straight that they are talking shite.
And also calling them a bawbag
An opinion without knowledge has little value. Maybe that is where you are going wrong with your nihilistic view of this place.
But you can't filter it... it's pointless of you to ask for an ID that reassures that a comment is indeed coming from a valued source.
There is no practical way to double check, I could tell you any sort of bullshit.
The only ID I asked for was if you had a background that included likely expertise in this topic, and I would have accepted it in good faith.Other people asked for citations. Maybe you could have cited the epidemiological forum to which you refer. I didn't want your name, who you work for, or anything else because that is private unless you choose to reveal it. I was trying to assess the value of your statement against that of Chris's. Chris could be bullshitting about his entire professional career, yes, but given his investment into the community of yacf I think that is highly unlikely. I guess this is the crux of it. You don't see any value in yacf as anything. Others do and act accordingly.
It's not, but I do it anyway...........
I hope that in other workplaces its more normal and acceptable to tell somebody straight that they are talking shite.
And also calling them a bawbag
I don't think anyone who "is a medical [or any other] professional", or says they are, should have their opinion given any more weight on a largely anonymous internet forum than anybody else.
The forum, like any, doesn't have a recognized authentication method, so as a reader, I have no way of telling whether any given poster actually is a medical professional or simply claims to be a medical professional, and neither should I need/want one.
It's a bit like saying wikipedia should only be edited by "scholars". Maybe, but that massively restricts the pool of contributors. If you say some opinions should be given more weight on a forum and therefore that should override all others are those from "appropriate professionals" then you essentially stifle the discussion.
I don't think anyone who "is a medical [or any other] professional", or says they are, should have their opinion given any more weight on a largely anonymous internet forum than anybody else.
The forum, like any, doesn't have a recognized authentication method, so as a reader, I have no way of telling whether any given poster actually is a medical professional or simply claims to be a medical professional, and neither should I need/want one.
This isn't wiki. This is a community of people interacting over what is now 16 years. Many of whom have met, are friends, some have married or formed partnerships. It is absolutely fine for GD not to invest anything in the forum at all, but he has to accept that many others do. He wants to be a transient member, fine. He places no value at all in the forum, fine. At least I can weigh up his contribution with that in mind. I don't mean that as a snarky comment or an insult to him, just that it is likely that I won't view him as a poster in whom I place value in the way that I do in some others.
The alternative is people get to talk pish with impunity and ultimately someone comes to serious harm or other. That's unethical.You get anti-vexers and anti-lockdowners getting disproportionate airtime.
More Seriously, if someone asks medical questions or talks medical pish then people with the medical k ow ledge regardless of where it is should be allowed to speak out.
Replace medical with, Engineering, Architectural, Legal, It etc etc.
It's all the same.
The alternative is people get to talk pish with impunity and ultimately someone comes to serious harm or other. That's unethical.
...the good news is, if Chris is using his real name then there are multiple sources you can validate it against that are public starting with the gmc website.
The alternative is people get to talk pish with impunity and ultimately someone comes to serious harm or other. That's unethical.You get anti-vexers and anti-lockdowners getting disproportionate airtime.
We've seen it here, but, thanks to the generally thoughtful posters, they often get short-shrift.
You are agreeing with Ben T's objection to dicscussion being stifled, and at the same time stifling the discussion by saying it shouldn't even take place here. Contradictory, much ??? ???
Opinions are generally useless, how in fuck can I find out how to fix my brakes from opinions.
It would be like bloody stackoverflow
Q: hi, I'm having a problem setting toe in on my cantis, they're tektro bah
A1: don't use cantis use discs
A2: don't use cantis use calupers
A3: don't use cantis use v-brakes
A4: what do you need brakes for.
Sent from my BKL-L09 using Tapatalk
Nah I'd go on tiktok and ask Dr KatOpinions are generally useless, how in fuck can I find out how to fix my brakes from opinions.
It would be like bloody stackoverflow
Q: hi, I'm having a problem setting toe in on my cantis, they're tektro bah
A1: don't use cantis use discs
A2: don't use cantis use calupers
A3: don't use cantis use v-brakes
A4: what do you need brakes for.
Sent from my BKL-L09 using Tapatalk
Would you look for an answer on an epidemiology forum?
You are agreeing with Ben T's objection to dicscussion being stifled, and at the same time stifling the discussion by saying it shouldn't even take place here. Contradictory, much ??? ???
.. and again, a quick stab at undermining me, because apparently I contradict myself... you can't resist... do you not see that I don't do it with you?
The alternative is people get to talk pish with impunity and ultimately someone comes to serious harm or other. That's unethical.You get anti-vexers and anti-lockdowners getting disproportionate airtime.
We've seen it here, but, thanks to the generally thoughtful posters, they often get short-shrift.
Most have given up trying to change the opinions of bigots as they are probably sick of their perpetual straw man arguments, hyperbolic anecdote, and refusal to engage in adult debate, and don't really even need to bother anyway because their points are being made far more eloquently by a growing number of journalists, and apart from a shrinking minority are increasingly preaching to the converted anyway.
Opinions are generally useless, how in fuck can I find out how to fix my brakes from opinions.
It would be like bloody stackoverflow
Q: hi, I'm having a problem setting toe in on my cantis, they're tektro bah
A1: don't use cantis use discs
A2: don't use cantis use calupers
A3: don't use cantis use v-brakes
A4: what do you need brakes for.
Sent from my BKL-L09 using Tapatalk
Yes, anti-vax and anti-lockdown bigots are tiresome, aren't they.
You are agreeing with Ben T's objection to dicscussion being stifled, and at the same time stifling the discussion by saying it shouldn't even take place here. Contradictory, much ??? ???
.. and again, a quick stab at undermining me, because apparently I contradict myself... you can't resist... do you not see that I don't do it with you?
Way back in this thread, you started arguing with something I said about infection, about virions etc etc. I didn't claim you were undermining me, discrediting me. I didn't take it as some sort of personal attack. In fact 'me' didn't come into it. This really is futile, now, and I think this is really about how you perceive interactions with you.
And with that in mind, and with a huge virtual hug from me for you, I'm going to cease responding to you because I sense that it will have an impact that is certainly not intended by me.
Peace out :)
Opinions are generally useless, how in fuck can I find out how to fix my brakes from opinions.
It would be like bloody stackoverflow
Q: hi, I'm having a problem setting toe in on my cantis, they're tektro bah
A1: don't use cantis use discs
A2: don't use cantis use calupers
A3: don't use cantis use v-brakes
A4: what do you need brakes for.
Sent from my BKL-L09 using Tapatalk
different with asking for advice to having a debate though.
Yes, anti-vax and anti-lockdown bigots are tiresome, aren't they.
straw man again
For me the issue is misinformation even if accidental might dissuade people from vaccination. AZ are saying from the trials close to 80% efficacy against symptomatic illness and 100% efficacy against serious illness and hospitalisation. However you were saying it would be awesome to get even 90% efficacy against hospitalisation and death (and also quoted figures for after a single dose).You are agreeing with Ben T's objection to dicscussion being stifled, and at the same time stifling the discussion by saying it shouldn't even take place here. Contradictory, much ??? ???
.. and again, a quick stab at undermining me, because apparently I contradict myself... you can't resist... do you not see that I don't do it with you?
Way back in this thread, you started arguing with something I said about infection, about virions etc etc. I didn't claim you were undermining me, discrediting me. I didn't take it as some sort of personal attack. In fact 'me' didn't come into it. This really is futile, now, and I think this is really about how you perceive interactions with you.
And with that in mind, and with a huge virtual hug from me for you, I'm going to cease responding to you because I sense that it will have an impact that is certainly not intended by me.
Peace out :)
I said that you were incorrect in your statement, which is different from implying that you are not credible as a person.
Mine was a comment in reply to your comment, yours are comments on me as a person, that's the difference between having a discussion and bullying.
It is very, very important!
For me the issue is misinformation even if accidental might dissuade people from vaccination. AZ are saying from the trials close to 80% efficacy against symptomatic illness and 100% efficacy against serious illness and hospitalisation. However you were saying it would be awesome to get even 90% efficacy against hospitalisation and death (and also quoted figures for after a single dose).You are agreeing with Ben T's objection to dicscussion being stifled, and at the same time stifling the discussion by saying it shouldn't even take place here. Contradictory, much ??? ???
.. and again, a quick stab at undermining me, because apparently I contradict myself... you can't resist... do you not see that I don't do it with you?
Way back in this thread, you started arguing with something I said about infection, about virions etc etc. I didn't claim you were undermining me, discrediting me. I didn't take it as some sort of personal attack. In fact 'me' didn't come into it. This really is futile, now, and I think this is really about how you perceive interactions with you.
And with that in mind, and with a huge virtual hug from me for you, I'm going to cease responding to you because I sense that it will have an impact that is certainly not intended by me.
Peace out :)
I said that you were incorrect in your statement, which is different from implying that you are not credible as a person.
Mine was a comment in reply to your comment, yours are comments on me as a person, that's the difference between having a discussion and bullying.
It is very, very important!
It is not unreasonable to ask where you get this “90% would be awesome” from, if it is a reliable source it would be nice to see a link, if it is from your own expertise some sort of indication of what that expertise is or at least some workings.
To my thinking if there is 80% efficacy against symptomatic illness then 90% against hospitalisation and death seems very low in comparison. This would indicate those unfortunate enough develop symptomatic covid despite being vaccinated would stand 50% chance of hospitalisation or death.
If in the unvaccinated population you develop symptomatic covid there may be say a 10% chance of needing hospitalisation and of those hospitalised a 10% chance of death (giving 1% fatality amongst symptomatic cases).
If those fractions were similar for those in the 20% that the vaccine failed to protect, multiplying, you get 2% chance of hospitalisation and 0.2% of death.
So given an 80% efficacy against developing symptoms that should give a 98% efficacy against hospitalisation and 99.8% against death even the vaccine provided no benefits at all to those that became symptomatic.
Yes but will audax recover from this????Those who want to ride distances will do so. There will always be someone willing to act as ACP rep. Anything else is fluff.
There have been 2 main AZ trials, each with 32000 participants. There were zero hospitalisations or deaths amongst the vaccinated cohort though unfortunately there were some in the placebo groups.For me the issue is misinformation even if accidental might dissuade people from vaccination. AZ are saying from the trials close to 80% efficacy against symptomatic illness and 100% efficacy against serious illness and hospitalisation. However you were saying it would be awesome to get even 90% efficacy against hospitalisation and death (and also quoted figures for after a single dose).You are agreeing with Ben T's objection to dicscussion being stifled, and at the same time stifling the discussion by saying it shouldn't even take place here. Contradictory, much ??? ???
.. and again, a quick stab at undermining me, because apparently I contradict myself... you can't resist... do you not see that I don't do it with you?
Way back in this thread, you started arguing with something I said about infection, about virions etc etc. I didn't claim you were undermining me, discrediting me. I didn't take it as some sort of personal attack. In fact 'me' didn't come into it. This really is futile, now, and I think this is really about how you perceive interactions with you.
And with that in mind, and with a huge virtual hug from me for you, I'm going to cease responding to you because I sense that it will have an impact that is certainly not intended by me.
Peace out :)
I said that you were incorrect in your statement, which is different from implying that you are not credible as a person.
Mine was a comment in reply to your comment, yours are comments on me as a person, that's the difference between having a discussion and bullying.
It is very, very important!
It is not unreasonable to ask where you get this “90% would be awesome” from, if it is a reliable source it would be nice to see a link, if it is from your own expertise some sort of indication of what that expertise is or at least some workings.
To my thinking if there is 80% efficacy against symptomatic illness then 90% against hospitalisation and death seems very low in comparison. This would indicate those unfortunate enough develop symptomatic covid despite being vaccinated would stand 50% chance of hospitalisation or death.
If in the unvaccinated population you develop symptomatic covid there may be say a 10% chance of needing hospitalisation and of those hospitalised a 10% chance of death (giving 1% fatality amongst symptomatic cases).
If those fractions were similar for those in the 20% that the vaccine failed to protect, multiplying, you get 2% chance of hospitalisation and 0.2% of death.
So given an 80% efficacy against developing symptoms that should give a 98% efficacy against hospitalisation and 99.8% against death even the vaccine provided no benefits at all to those that became symptomatic.
For the record, I received my AZ vaccine 12 days ago, so I am certainly not trying to dissuade people from vaccinating. I hope they do, but I am not here campaigning for them to do so either, it's a cycling forum FFS... as a matter of fact, I got my vaccine early probably because someone else didn't take theirs... so there is a silver lining... ;D
Latest data on first dose, as reported above are 3/5 efficacy on reducing infection and 4/5 in reducing hospitalisation (wouldn't want your dog to howl), that's based on first dose only. My understanding is that the second dose marginally improves those figures, but the main objective is to extend the protection (that's what Whitty seems to stress in the press conferences).
We don't have figures including the second dose in the real world yet, only for trials. I seem to recall Astra Zeneca was around 70% effective in reducing infection and over 90% effective in reducing hospitalisations. That is based on around 20,000 volunteers, of which a handful ended up in hospital among the placebo population, so those data on hospitalisations and deaths are inevitably subject to more real world data.
As for transmission, who knows, if you look at Chile you might wonder whether it prevents transmission at all... over here they have come up with a 30% figure (as above, I can't remember if it reduces by 30% or reduces to 30%). It would be simplistic to conclude that if infections are down 60%, then even transmission should be down 60%. You could infect someone at 9 AM and test negative at 5 PM or the other way round, it is entirely possible... if you want to avoid bias, you need to avoid preconceptions.
But most importantly, none of these numbers matter, if the question is "how will Audax change as a result of Covid?"
Gawd 'elp us, I don't know about Audax, but there's a few ego's that'll never recover from this ;D
I seem to recall Astra Zeneca was around 70% effective in reducing infection and over 90% effective in reducing hospitalisations. That is based on around 20,000 volunteers,
Yes but will audax recover from this????Those who want to ride distances will do so. There will always be someone willing to act as ACP rep. Anything else is fluff.
The alternative is people get to talk pish with impunity and ultimately someone comes to serious harm or other. That's unethical.You get anti-vexers and anti-lockdowners getting disproportionate airtime.
We've seen it here, but, thanks to the generally thoughtful posters, they often get short-shrift.
Most have given up trying to change the opinions of bigots as they are probably sick of their perpetual straw man arguments, hyperbolic anecdote, and refusal to engage in adult debate, and don't really even need to bother anyway because their points are being made far more eloquently by a growing number of journalists, and apart from a shrinking minority are increasingly preaching to the converted anyway.
^ mattc spaketh some sense. ( :-* )Jesus H Chr... - this lockdown really is affecting the nation's mental health.
maybe remove the genital cuff.No.
...sick of their ... refusal to engage in adult debate...
Journalists or pundits, and do you understand the distinction?
You do realise that outside of a tiny number of very vocal internet loons ( :o) , some self-interested internet grifters like L.Fox and some truly egregious opportunist pundits like Julia Hartley-Bawbag there really are no anti-vax/mask advocates.
Yes but will audax recover from this????
...sick of their ... refusal to engage in adult debate...
Journalists or pundits, and do you understand the distinction?
You do realise that outside of a tiny number of very vocal internet loons ( :o) , some self-interested internet grifters like L.Fox and some truly egregious opportunist pundits like Julia Hartley-Bawbag there really are no anti-vax/mask advocates.
QED ::-)
Eventually sleeping in dorms will become legal. People’s choice whether to partake or not. A question might be do enough eschew it to make it not worth the organiser putting it on.
And this is think is the essence here. Audax as usual will be allowed, but some will be hesitant.
Eventually sleeping in dorms will become legal. People’s choice whether to partake or not. A question might be do enough eschew it to make it not worth the organiser putting it on.
I guess LEL will be the big test, maybe BCM a smaller one before that. Don't think anything of the sort is going to happen this year, but I might be wrong.
Are volunteers still going to be keen? Personally I was due to help at Barnard Castle, but I am not sure I want to do it in 2022. Some reasons are personal, I would like to have flexibility in my calendar in the summer, since it looks like I won't be able to go abroad this year, same as last year. Maybe 2022 will be the year when I set foot on the other side of the channel? But part are concerns related to crowds of people from all corners of the world... social distancing and basic hygiene being difficult when folks are tired and sleep deprived.
As an organiser I would also feel more awkward in asking people for help at events, knowing I might put them in a position where they agree, but they would rather not...
It's probably a lot of paranoia, but it's there and I'm probably not the only one...
Audax will return to normal just as soon as legal conditions allow them to. That really is the crux of it. Everything else is just handwringing guff.Why do you think
So when will that be? Probably by next summer.
Assuming 21 June, how many big catered for audaxes do you anticipate will be organised and run before next summer? In other words, you have to allow time for organisers to organise, entrants to enter etc. Given that 21st June is already towards the end of the audax season and that orgs are unlikely to start orging without strong confidence that legal restrictions will lift I don't see much in the way of big events this year, and they don't really happen september to april anyway.My point was they will be allowed this year.
200s? Yeah, sure, we may well see those this year.
The vast majority of audax events as far as I can tell do not involve overnight accommodation in halls. Of the five 400s I have done only two had a hall for the overnight control and that was more for rest and food than actual sleep. So only 600s and above are affected.
Depends on the terrain, and start time, I did a flat 400 with a full night's sleep (7hours) once, slept between sunset and sunrise.
The vast majority of audax events as far as I can tell do not involve overnight accommodation in halls. Of the five 400s I have done only two had a hall for the overnight control and that was more for rest and food than actual sleep. So only 600s and above are affected.
There aren't that many people who can finish a 400 with a decent sleep, most people push through.
On the continent you'll hardly see an oroganiser consdidering sleeping options for a mere 400.
Audax will return to normal just as soon as legal conditions allow them to. That really is the crux of it. Everything else is just handwringing guff.
That possibly doesn't mean what you think it means.Audax will return to normal just as soon as legal conditions allow them to. That really is the crux of it. Everything else is just handwringing guff.Why do you think
So when will that be? Probably by next summer.
"By step 4 which will take place no earlier than 21 June (2021), the government hopes to be in a position to remove all legal limits on social contact"
Would not apply to allowing audax?
Obviously it may move back from the June date, but expecting it to be pushed to next summer seems pessimistic.
That possibly doesn't mean what you think it means.Audax will return to normal just as soon as legal conditions allow them to. That really is the crux of it. Everything else is just handwringing guff.Why do you think
So when will that be? Probably by next summer.
"By step 4 which will take place no earlier than 21 June (2021), the government hopes to be in a position to remove all legal limits on social contact"
Would not apply to allowing audax?
Obviously it may move back from the June date, but expecting it to be pushed to next summer seems pessimistic.
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Good to see that audaxers with audaxing don't change!
Good to see that audaxers with audaxing don't change!
We haven't had full lowdown of Audax achievements yet.. normally you are only as credible as the number of SR you can boast. It's ultra or die
TBH - I've always felt that YACF celebrates the finest in pedantry and unnecessary grumpiness... characteristics you rarely encounter when we're actually riding!
My first long brevet was John's National 400 in 2018. I remember on the way back from Aberystwyth, as the climb gradually became a fast A-road flat, we caught up with this AUK veteran (you can tell by the amount of clutter on the bike), who as soon as saw we were approaching, made a hell of an effort to drop us... by then it was getting dark and safety was in numbers, unless you are of a grumpy nature of course.
Chile have also mainly vaccinated with Sinovac, which is the worse of the two Chinese vaccines, with efficacy results from trials as low as 50%.