Any budding meteorologists here?

[Andydauddwr]

For my sins, I'm captaining a team of 12 rowers hoping to race across the Irish Sea on or around May 3rd.  For the race to not be cancelled, there needs to be a 48 hour weather window (36 at a push) of force 3 or less wind.

Metcheck will take me as far as May 1st and seems to be set at 15mph Westerlys (force 4).  Can anybody point me at any better data and/or offer an opinion?

The race runs from Arklow, co Wicklow to Aberystwyth.

The good news is that if it is blown-off, I can go cycling instead! 

Many thanks,

AC

[JonBuoy]

3rd May is probably too far away for any kind of accurate prediction.

[TimO]

After watching Metcheck's forecase for this Friday (FNRttC), over the last week, even that far ahead is iffy.  The wind has changed direction, rain has come and gone, the temperature has see sawed.  It'll probably change a couple of more times before Friday.

I'd be fairly surprised if any forecaster was willing to give a very high probability as far ahead as 1st May.

[PeteB99]

This sight is about as accurate as you'll find for medium range forecasts
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008041512!!/


The pressure charts go to base date +240 hours but of course at that distance are just an educated guess.

The wind speeds indicated are for the 850 hPA isobaric surface which is I think about 5000 ft so should be a lot lighter at sea level. Maybe the race organisers will be paying for a commercial forecast which they'll isue closer to the date (I know I would!)

Good luck for it.

Anyone remember how to shorten the URL?

[andrew_s]

Anyone remember how to shorten the URL?

this is how to enter a url: [url=http://www.bbc.co.uk]short url[/url], which shows up as short url.

I usually do it by typing plain text, highlighting what I want the link text to be, clicking the "Insert Hyperlink" button, then inserting "=" and pasting the link immediately after the first "[url"

[Andydauddwr]

Thanks for the input all. 

AC