Author Topic: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?  (Read 29411 times)

cygnet

  • I'm part of the association
Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #150 on: 04 April, 2021, 08:47:09 pm »

Do you define immunity as
1) kills the virus or
2) presents no issues to the infected person?

Neither... immunity is if you have been exposed to the virus/vaccine relatively recently and have antibodies... that will lower risk to some extent, but it won't be neither 1) nor 2)

Either

So it's not enough to be virus free, you would require demonstration of antibodies?


I Said, I've Got A Big Stick

FifeingEejit

  • Not Small
Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #151 on: 04 April, 2021, 08:49:02 pm »
Immunity is a function of the immune system, not the presence or lack of the virus.

Antibodies are a measureable value of the immune system.

Sent from my BKL-L09 using Tapatalk


cygnet

  • I'm part of the association
Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #152 on: 04 April, 2021, 08:55:31 pm »
PBP only dropped the mandatory mudguard requirement in 1995 and national organisations generally took a few years to follow suit.

https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=117680 is the thread about cycling and previous epidemics.

Thanks LWaB

There's so little reference to this compared to "Spanish Flu" It's difficult to know where to start asking about it.
I Said, I've Got A Big Stick

Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #153 on: 04 April, 2021, 09:10:30 pm »



I wonder what age these ex audaxers were in the eighties, many were racing cyclists at a crossroads and decided Audax would keep them fit without killing themselves.
Its a point well made. I came into Audax late 80s, and my peak (small foothill really) was mid 90s, and my recollection is that, yes, there was a preponderance of older men on 'fast touring' type machines (and very few female riders).
This is almost certainly where the 'saddlebag & mudguard' image of Audaxers comes from (if it's still a thing).

I did my first audax in 2006. I was on a carbon racing bike. Told it wasn't "suitable for audax" by more than one other rider.  Don't recall seeing any other CF race machines. Did the Mille Cymru on it 3.5 years later. Was one of the roughly 50% of entrants who actually finished it (with comparative ease I might add)  :smug:

I think steel tourers are now the minority by a long way, and heavy canvas Carradice is giving way to nylon bikepacking kit. Attitudes are changing and the narrow exclusionary mindset is almost dead. Its bloody great seeing more women, and doubly great seeing women who kick everyone else's arse.  Long may it continue to evolve.

Nothing stays the same forever, audax will and must change appropriately, but there are many elements that I hope remain, especially the culture of volunteerism.

CF bikes, you always had comments. Your bike is lighter than the saddlebag i have. Steel is real, i just said as you get older the bike becomes lighter and faster. 😂

Fidgetbuzz

  • L sp MOON. 1st R sp MARS . At X SO sp STARS
Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #154 on: 04 April, 2021, 09:36:48 pm »
I would like to think that Audax will again return to some sort of normality in the future, but probably not for a couple of years at least and not until most of the World's population has been vaccinated.  Until then I think it will be as quoted above.  Sadly, I cant see LEL or PBP happening anytime soon!

But in 16 months time, the world may well be recovering from the current fearful state that so many are in.   We currently are aiming to run LEL. Depending on how the world develops especially in relation to international travel over  the next 8 months .. we may end up with  fewer international riders than we had in 2017.. but at the moment we remain optimistic that LEL will be there in 2022.  Maybe not as an exact replica of 2017 .. but certainly a well planned and well thought out event, and still a challenging ride .. with immense satisfaction when you complete.
I was an accountant until I discovered Audax !!

Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #155 on: 04 April, 2021, 10:34:04 pm »
A world where audax controls and dorms aren't possible is one where indoor socialising amongst strangers is still banned or at least discouraged. How much longer do you think we can keep that up for?

As for cafés being too thin on the ground to act as controls... no. Anyone who was out and about last summer will know that anywhere open was heaving. If anything the problem will be that they're too busy.

There will be further waves of covid, but they'll be smaller and met with a collective shrug.

Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #156 on: 05 April, 2021, 12:22:37 am »



I wonder what age these ex audaxers were in the eighties, many were racing cyclists at a crossroads and decided Audax would keep them fit without killing themselves.
Its a point well made. I came into Audax late 80s, and my peak (small foothill really) was mid 90s, and my recollection is that, yes, there was a preponderance of older men on 'fast touring' type machines (and very few female riders).
This is almost certainly where the 'saddlebag & mudguard' image of Audaxers comes from (if it's still a thing).

I did my first audax in 2006. I was on a carbon racing bike. Told it wasn't "suitable for audax" by more than one other rider.  Don't recall seeing any other CF race machines. Did the Mille Cymru on it 3.5 years later. Was one of the roughly 50% of entrants who actually finished it (with comparative ease I might add)  :smug:

I think steel tourers are now the minority by a long way, and heavy canvas Carradice is giving way to nylon bikepacking kit. Attitudes are changing and the narrow exclusionary mindset is almost dead. Its bloody great seeing more women, and doubly great seeing women who kick everyone else's arse.  Long may it continue to evolve.

Nothing stays the same forever, audax will and must change appropriately, but there are many elements that I hope remain, especially the culture of volunteerism.
My experience is that it’s no more diverse, it just appeals to a different segment.  The predominant group used to be like the hard riders section of the CTC, that’s hardly surprising, the links were so close I thought it was part of the same organisation.  On the rides that appeal to me, 200’s and 300’s, there always used to be a sizeable proportion of more casual audaxers, they’ve gone. It’s become too serious for them, the bikes, the look but mostly the attitude and talk.  If after struggling round you feel like you’ve had your arse kicked you’re not going to ride another.  Turn up for your first 200 in baggy shorts and a football shirt riding a cheap hybrid and you'll feel less like you belong there than I did 25 years ago.  Of course, it's good that there's more women cycling, but the only ones attracted to Audax are those who can kick arse.  The CTC group I ride with has an improving gender balance, around 60/40, but not one of those women (And not many of the men) are riding Audax.  It used to be the other way round 80/20 at best, yet everyone in that group would have ridden some Audax.
I’m not complaining, there’s still plenty of rides I’d like to do, I just need to take more care picking them.  I don’t mind riding alone more of the time.  I can shrug off the more frequent comments that the type of bike that I’ve always ridden isn’t suitable, that’s how it is.

Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #157 on: 05 April, 2021, 06:35:53 am »
People and machines will look different if you compare them with a quarter of a century between them. I guess I am now one of the hairy-nosed older gits I saw when I started, just out of my mid 30s. Maybe I'm less ebullient than I was then because audaxes are no longer an exciting novelty and I am tired.  People like me in their early to mid 50s dont wear what looks like kit from the 60s because we weren't born then, let alone riding. Equally bikes once exotic are now the norm, and even long term stalwarts of audax (at least many of them) are open to their adoption. People can ride what they like, and some just like riding the bike they have always ridden, whereas others recognise that technology progresses in cycling just as it does in cars, televisions, aircraft, houses, and every form of engineering.

It strikes me that people on a hybrid and baggies are more likely to be welcomed now. I've seen a more diverse entry over the past few years with routes of entry from places other than CTC. This is in part due to internet spreading the word but also a growing interest in endurance (ultra) events coupled with bikepacking, and on/off road hybrid events (see TINAT as a great example). Audax is now touted in the cycling press as a 'must try' for cyclists, whereas it used to be a secret. In fact I'd never heard of audax until 2005, via this forum's predecessor, despite me reading the cycling press all my life.

Davef

Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #158 on: 05 April, 2021, 07:44:35 am »

Do you define immunity as
1) kills the virus or
2) presents no issues to the infected person?

Neither... immunity is if you have been exposed to the virus/vaccine relatively recently and have antibodies... that will lower risk to some extent, but it won't be neither 1) nor 2)
The purpose of social distancing and mask wearing etc is to reduce R to less than 1 so the virus is in decline rather than growing.

If 90% of the population is vaccinated the remaining unvaccinated have some immunity via previous infection then the R rate of say 4 with no intervention will be reduced to an effective rate less than 1.

With regard specifically to audax participants the vaccination rate is likely to be higher than 90% as the national average is brought down by groups with very low take up e.g. Caribbean blacks at 58%. These groups are not highly represented in audax.

Add to this the introduction of universal twice weekly testing for everybody and I think the events with shared accommodation will be fine.

Davef

Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #159 on: 05 April, 2021, 07:54:50 am »
I did my first audax as a teenager in the 1980s.
I remember there being a lot of old blokes in their mid 40s.

After my one audax I had a 35 year break.

On my return I have discovered that audax has changed. It now has a lot of youngsters in their mid 40s.

Geriatricdolan

Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #160 on: 05 April, 2021, 08:22:09 am »


If 90% of the population is vaccinated the remaining unvaccinated have some immunity via previous infection then the R rate of say 4 with no intervention will be reduced to an effective rate less than 1.

With regard specifically to audax participants the vaccination rate is likely to be higher than 90% as the national average is brought down by groups with very low take up e.g. Caribbean blacks at 58%. These groups are not highly represented in audax.

Add to this the introduction of universal twice weekly testing for everybody and I think the events with shared accommodation will be fine.

The above would be true if vaccination was a barrier against asymptomatic transmission, but apparently you are only a bit less likely to spread around the virus if you are vaccinated, not a lot... so the idea of herd immunity as a strategy to avoid social distancing has been shelved some time ago. I think the hope now is that transmission will occur with minimal effect on the NHS... that's the hope.

In the latter part of your post you are navigating in dangerous waters, so I won't follow you there

As for lateral flow testing, they are rolling it out now, they won't be able to keep it going forever, it's not free at the point of purchase and at some point they will have to start cutting... I don't think these tests will be free forever... that said, they might be available to buy at cost and maybe LEL organisers might have to fork out

Jaded

  • The Codfather
  • Formerly known as Jaded
Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #161 on: 05 April, 2021, 08:58:33 am »


If 90% of the population is vaccinated the remaining unvaccinated have some immunity via previous infection then the R rate of say 4 with no intervention will be reduced to an effective rate less than 1.

With regard specifically to audax participants the vaccination rate is likely to be higher than 90% as the national average is brought down by groups with very low take up e.g. Caribbean blacks at 58%. These groups are not highly represented in audax.

Add to this the introduction of universal twice weekly testing for everybody and I think the events with shared accommodation will be fine.

The above would be true if vaccination was a barrier against asymptomatic transmission, but apparently you are only a bit less likely to spread around the virus if you are vaccinated, not a lot... so the idea of herd immunity as a strategy to avoid social distancing has been shelved some time ago. I think the hope now is that transmission will occur with minimal effect on the NHS... that's the hope.

In the latter part of your post you are navigating in dangerous waters, so I won't follow you there

As for lateral flow testing, they are rolling it out now, they won't be able to keep it going forever, it's not free at the point of purchase and at some point they will have to start cutting... I don't think these tests will be free forever... that said, they might be available to buy at cost and maybe LEL organisers might have to fork out

Citation please.
It is simpler than it looks.

Geriatricdolan

Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #162 on: 05 April, 2021, 09:08:39 am »


Citation please.

Again, from the scientific advisors... vaccine cuts transmission by 30% or 70%, can't remember if you are 30% less likely or you are 30% as likely, but it wasn't a huge number, certainly not one to warrant herd immunity alone.

Everything helps to cut the Rt number, but getting below 1 without any intervention seems very unlikely. And this is with current strains, future strains, if they will ever exist, will inevitably be more transmissible... that's the rule of the game... the more transmissible mutation takes over

Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #163 on: 05 April, 2021, 09:22:47 am »
Latest seems to be that there is "growing evidence" that vaccination cuts transmission.   Some research suggests that two weeks after first dose of Modern/Pfizer people have 80% protection from infection, which presumeably means they cannot transmit.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm

Have to be careful with all the percentages flying around that people don't confuse that to which they refer. There is a difference between chance of infection, chance of transmitting whilst infected, and chance of suffering symptoms whilst infected.

The LFT thing is really about asymptomatic transmission, btw.

Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #164 on: 05 April, 2021, 09:53:58 am »
Yes, as HF says growing and strong evidence that vaccination is effective at preventing infection and transmission. For the UK the concerns are more about groups with high rates of vaccine hesitancy and new immune escape variants. Worldwide, vaccination is going to take much longer I’m afraid.

In terms of transmissibility, it’s not quite so simple as to say that new variants will be ore transmissible, so much as ‘more transmissible in the context they emerge in’ - so an immune escape variant would be more transmissible amongst a vaccinated population, even were it less transmissible amongst a naive population.

Similarly, the current variants of concern do actually appear to be both more transmissible and more deadly than the ‘wild’ variant, in spite of the press telling us viruses ‘always evolve to be more infectious and less deadly’. There hasn’t been selection pressure to become less deadly, so it’s not a given.


Audax will become what people want it to. I’d be delighted if it welcomed the baggy shorts hybrid/men rider alongside the aero carbon rider. Time wise, 200s give me a day off. If something takes 2 days or more it’s touring;)

Mike

Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #165 on: 05 April, 2021, 10:09:35 am »
^   ...or a racy/tour combo.

It's years since I've done a 600, but I used to love getting in to the 400k nightstop at 11pm, having ridden it with a modicum of urgency. Full night sleep (allowing for all the anti-social twits switching the dorm lights on at 3am and then rustling about in their fucking carrier bags for an age)  then setting off at 8am and treating the final 200k as just a nice day out without any desired finish time (always seemed to be 5pm though. weird)

I'm absolutely certain I couldn't do that now. I'm not convinced I could manage a 200k without considerable effort regardless of speed, and I think it'll be a few years before I get back to the point where audax was easy for me.

Cudzoziemiec

  • Ride adventurously and stop for a brew.
Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #166 on: 05 April, 2021, 10:17:26 am »
We have had events for years despite the fact they spread the flu and many people die of that. Once less people are dying of covid than the flu it would be unreasonable not to return to normal. That is not the case yet, but we are fairly rapidly moving that way.

Funny you say that, as I was thinking the same, but differently. I don't think we will ever be allowed to go to work with a flu and Paracetamol, like it was acceptable before... now that we know that spreading viruses actually kill people.
I honestly didn't know that almost 10,000 people die of flu every year, despite vaccines and all... if you asked me last year, I would have thought maybe a few hundred frail elderly, nowhere near 10K.

Now that we are all very aware of what respiratory viruses do, we are not going back to that way of living, it just won't be socially acceptable
I think the exact opposite is more likely. Now that most people are expected to work from home, flu will never be accepted as a reason for a day off.
Riding a concrete path through the nebulous and chaotic future.

Cudzoziemiec

  • Ride adventurously and stop for a brew.
Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #167 on: 05 April, 2021, 10:22:10 am »
People and machines will look different if you compare them with a quarter of a century between them. I guess I am now one of the hairy-nosed older gits I saw when I started, just out of my mid 30s. Maybe I'm less ebullient than I was then because audaxes are no longer an exciting novelty and I am tired.  People like me in their early to mid 50s dont wear what looks like kit from the 60s because we weren't born then, let alone riding. Equally bikes once exotic are now the norm, and even long term stalwarts of audax (at least many of them) are open to their adoption. People can ride what they like, and some just like riding the bike they have always ridden, whereas others recognise that technology progresses in cycling just as it does in cars, televisions, aircraft, houses, and every form of engineering.

It strikes me that people on a hybrid and baggies are more likely to be welcomed now. I've seen a more diverse entry over the past few years with routes of entry from places other than CTC. This is in part due to internet spreading the word but also a growing interest in endurance (ultra) events coupled with bikepacking, and on/off road hybrid events (see TINAT as a great example). Audax is now touted in the cycling press as a 'must try' for cyclists, whereas it used to be a secret. In fact I'd never heard of audax until 2005, via this forum's predecessor, despite me reading the cycling press all my life.
This, really. There are growing numbers of fast roady types on carbon race bikes in audax, there are also older audaxers riding the old steel they've had since 1980, and there are veterans on new carbon or titanium. And I rode my first few audaxes on a hybrid! (though I don't think I was in baggies) and no one ever said I should be on something else. The sadomasochist police ("you will be made to suffer and be seen to suffer, you will be derided and be seen to be derided") are louder than their real life presence.
Riding a concrete path through the nebulous and chaotic future.

Davef

Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #168 on: 05 April, 2021, 10:24:51 am »


If 90% of the population is vaccinated the remaining unvaccinated have some immunity via previous infection then the R rate of say 4 with no intervention will be reduced to an effective rate less than 1.

With regard specifically to audax participants the vaccination rate is likely to be higher than 90% as the national average is brought down by groups with very low take up e.g. Caribbean blacks at 58%. These groups are not highly represented in audax.

Add to this the introduction of universal twice weekly testing for everybody and I think the events with shared accommodation will be fine.

The above would be true if vaccination was a barrier against asymptomatic transmission, but apparently you are only a bit less likely to spread around the virus if you are vaccinated, not a lot... so the idea of herd immunity as a strategy to avoid social distancing has been shelved some time ago. I think the hope now is that transmission will occur with minimal effect on the NHS... that's the hope.

In the latter part of your post you are navigating in dangerous waters, so I won't follow you there

As for lateral flow testing, they are rolling it out now, they won't be able to keep it going forever, it's not free at the point of purchase and at some point they will have to start cutting... I don't think these tests will be free forever... that said, they might be available to buy at cost and maybe LEL organisers might have to fork out
If in the future people have to pay the £3 cost of a lateral flow test it could be added to the cost of the entry.

Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #169 on: 05 April, 2021, 10:50:45 am »

This, really. There are growing numbers of fast roady types on carbon race bikes in audax, there are also older audaxers riding the old steel they've had since 1980, and there are veterans on new carbon or titanium. And I rode my first few audaxes on a hybrid! (though I don't think I was in baggies) and no one ever said I should be on something else. The sadomasochist police ("you will be made to suffer and be seen to suffer, you will be derided and be seen to be derided") are louder than their real life presence.

My overriding impression of the first audaxes I rode were just how unfriendly they were in comparison to other sporting events I'd done, and also just how many of the riders (oldschool, steel bikes, flamboyant nose hair)  looked like they were absolutely hating every single pedal stroke. I came to realise that in that era audax had more than its fair share of people for whom people skills were,  shall we say, a bit lacking. The good thing about ACF (and later YACF) was that it acted as a conduit to meet people with whom you already had some sort of connection, although for some YACFers that was a downside not a benefit. Sorry  :demon:

These days I don't get that feeling at all, at least not from the audaxes I do (mostly Mark's excellent Tewkesbury rides). I'm noticing that I know fewer and fewer people, but that people are far more open to conversation. At least until they get to know me.

Geriatricdolan

Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #170 on: 05 April, 2021, 10:53:06 am »
Latest seems to be that there is "growing evidence" that vaccination cuts transmission.   Some research suggests that two weeks after first dose of Modern/Pfizer people have 80% protection from infection, which presumeably means they cannot transmit.



That's where you are incorrect. You can still carry it around and spread it by talking loudly, heavy breathing etc. It's less likely, but it's still "quite" likely

Geriatricdolan

Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #171 on: 05 April, 2021, 10:53:36 am »


If 90% of the population is vaccinated the remaining unvaccinated have some immunity via previous infection then the R rate of say 4 with no intervention will be reduced to an effective rate less than 1.

With regard specifically to audax participants the vaccination rate is likely to be higher than 90% as the national average is brought down by groups with very low take up e.g. Caribbean blacks at 58%. These groups are not highly represented in audax.

Add to this the introduction of universal twice weekly testing for everybody and I think the events with shared accommodation will be fine.

The above would be true if vaccination was a barrier against asymptomatic transmission, but apparently you are only a bit less likely to spread around the virus if you are vaccinated, not a lot... so the idea of herd immunity as a strategy to avoid social distancing has been shelved some time ago. I think the hope now is that transmission will occur with minimal effect on the NHS... that's the hope.

In the latter part of your post you are navigating in dangerous waters, so I won't follow you there

As for lateral flow testing, they are rolling it out now, they won't be able to keep it going forever, it's not free at the point of purchase and at some point they will have to start cutting... I don't think these tests will be free forever... that said, they might be available to buy at cost and maybe LEL organisers might have to fork out
If in the future people have to pay the £3 cost of a lateral flow test it could be added to the cost of the entry.

That is a realistic possibility

Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #172 on: 05 April, 2021, 10:54:27 am »
Latest seems to be that there is "growing evidence" that vaccination cuts transmission.   Some research suggests that two weeks after first dose of Modern/Pfizer people have 80% protection from infection, which presumeably means they cannot transmit.



That's where you are incorrect. You can still carry it around and spread it by talking loudly, heavy breathing etc. It's less likely, but it's still "quite" likely

If you can't get infected, how can you transmit?

Geriatricdolan

Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #173 on: 05 April, 2021, 11:02:57 am »
Latest seems to be that there is "growing evidence" that vaccination cuts transmission.   Some research suggests that two weeks after first dose of Modern/Pfizer people have 80% protection from infection, which presumeably means they cannot transmit.



That's where you are incorrect. You can still carry it around and spread it by talking loudly, heavy breathing etc. It's less likely, but it's still "quite" likely

If you can't get infected, how can you transmit?

You do, the virus sits in your nose and throat for a while, but because you have antibodies, it doesn't progress any further.
It's quite common for vaccinated people to then test positive, upon exposure to the virus. The vast majority of them will never develop any symptom, but the fact that they test positive means they are potentially spreaders

Cudzoziemiec

  • Ride adventurously and stop for a brew.
Re: Will Audax as we know it recover from this?
« Reply #174 on: 05 April, 2021, 11:08:44 am »

This, really. There are growing numbers of fast roady types on carbon race bikes in audax, there are also older audaxers riding the old steel they've had since 1980, and there are veterans on new carbon or titanium. And I rode my first few audaxes on a hybrid! (though I don't think I was in baggies) and no one ever said I should be on something else. The sadomasochist police ("you will be made to suffer and be seen to suffer, you will be derided and be seen to be derided") are louder than their real life presence.

My overriding impression of the first audaxes I rode were just how unfriendly they were in comparison to other sporting events I'd done, and also just how many of the riders (oldschool, steel bikes, flamboyant nose hair)  looked like they were absolutely hating every single pedal stroke. I came to realise that in that era audax had more than its fair share of people for whom people skills were,  shall we say, a bit lacking. The good thing about ACF (and later YACF) was that it acted as a conduit to meet people with whom you already had some sort of connection, although for some YACFers that was a downside not a benefit. Sorry  :demon:

These days I don't get that feeling at all, at least not from the audaxes I do (mostly Mark's excellent Tewkesbury rides). I'm noticing that I know fewer and fewer people, but that people are far more open to conversation. At least until they get to know me.
I didn't find them unfriendly, but I started several years after you and with shorter, local events. Plus I was usually riding them with a couple of people I at least vaguely knew already. And even then I was usually at the back, I guess attitudes are more laidback (even if the bikes aren't  ;)) at that end.
Riding a concrete path through the nebulous and chaotic future.