Will Audax as we know it recover from this?

[mattc]

Repeated loops should no longer be outlawed.  They may not be pretty, but whenever there are restrictions on travel, they are a practical option.
Long events may, regrettably, have to be restructured - a 600 being back-to-back 300s or 400/200 for example, putting the onus on the individual rider to sort out sleep accomodation between the two.
.

Yup, sounds wholly sensible.
(The loops thing has been a no-brainer since the beginning. Except to the AUK board ... )

[Davef]

Fresh data, one dose only

Symptomatic disease -60%
hospitalisation   -80%

So we are not looking at anywhere near 95-99% which is needed to remove all restrictions.

In Chile, where 50% of the population have been vaccinated (pfizer + Sinovac), infections are rising rapidly... so that's not very promising

That sounds about right and is completely consistent with 76% for symptomatic disease and 100% for hospitalisation after completing the two doses.

[Geriatricdolan]

Fresh data, one dose only

Symptomatic disease -60%
hospitalisation   -80%

So we are not looking at anywhere near 95-99% which is needed to remove all restrictions.

In Chile, where 50% of the population have been vaccinated (pfizer + Sinovac), infections are rising rapidly... so that's not very promising

That sounds about right and is completely consistent with 76% for symptomatic disease and 100% for hospitalisation after completing the two doses.

100% is just not possible... it might be that on trials, given the small numbers of people who got infected, they did achieve 100%, but in the real population it's just not possible. I would think 90% would be awesome and 95% would be extraordinary.
The current strain is not even the same the vaccines were tested against

[chrisbainbridge]

To be clear about infected, transmission,etc.  Firstly you inhale the virus. It is highly unlikely that the amount inhaled and able to cause infection would show up on a PCR test or lateral flow test.  The virus attaches to the cells and gets inside where it replicates first in the mucosal cells of the nasopharynx. The cells then Rupture and reinfect other cells. At this point after about 3-5 days of this cycle your PCR will become positive. However the vaccine has made no difference to the infection so far as the virus is still not “inside” the body.
Eventually the number of cells infected gets to a level where virus enters the blood stream and this is the point at which the vaccine will start to be of benefit and stop you becoming seriously ill.

To stop transmission from person to person completely you need a mucosal antibody and a vaccine delivered through the nose. These are under developments.

[Cudzoziemiec]

To be clear about infected, transmission,etc.  Firstly you inhale the virus. It is highly unlikely that the amount inhaled and able to cause infection would show up on a PCR test or lateral flow test.  The virus attaches to the cells and gets inside where it replicates first in the mucosal cells of the nasopharynx. The cells then Rupture and reinfect other cells. At this point after about 3-5 days of this cycle your PCR will become positive. However the vaccine has made no difference to the infection so far as the virus is still not “inside” the body.
Eventually the number of cells infected gets to a level where virus enters the blood stream and this is the point at which the vaccine will start to be of benefit and stop you becoming seriously ill.

To stop transmission from person to person completely you need a mucosal antibody and a vaccine delivered through the nose. These are under developments.

Useful info. 

[JonBuoy]

Repeated loops should no longer be outlawed.  They may not be pretty, but whenever there are restrictions on travel, they are a practical option.
Long events may, regrettably, have to be restructured - a 600 being back-to-back 300s or 400/200 for example, putting the onus on the individual rider to sort out sleep accomodation between the two.
.

Yup, sounds wholly sensible.
(The loops thing has been a no-brainer since the beginning. Except to the AUK board ... )

Maybe I am just fortunate with my local roads but I easily managed to squeeze an audax-compliant 200k into a 10k radius from my house without getting too silly.  It didn't feel too audacious but it was actually a really pleasant route that made me appreciate the variety of local scenery available to me with flat bits, lumpy bits, a bit of urban, some parks etc.

[Wycombewheeler]

To be clear about infected, transmission,etc.  Firstly you inhale the virus. It is highly unlikely that the amount inhaled and able to cause infection would show up on a PCR test or lateral flow test.  The virus attaches to the cells and gets inside where it replicates first in the mucosal cells of the nasopharynx. The cells then Rupture and reinfect other cells. At this point after about 3-5 days of this cycle your PCR will become positive. However the vaccine has made no difference to the infection so far as the virus is still not “inside” the body.
Eventually the number of cells infected gets to a level where virus enters the blood stream and this is the point at which the vaccine will start to be of benefit and stop you becoming seriously ill.

To stop transmission from person to person completely you need a mucosal antibody and a vaccine delivered through the nose. These are under developments.

So can you explain why people who live with vaccinated health workers were less likely to be infected than people who live with unvaccinated health workers?

[Wycombewheeler]

Oh god this is going to turn into a I fo controls argument now

Sent from my BKL-L09 using Tapatalk

Ha ha... no, but would anyone miss them if they're gone?

Various routes that are impossible without them or an appropriate replacement.

Sent from my BKL-L09 using Tapatalk

Such as gps track or the eBrevet app, which works but for some reason doesn't seem to be in use on actual rides yet.

[Ben T]

I think the exact opposite is more likely. Now that most people are expected to work from home, flu will never be accepted as a reason for a day off.

In my first ever proper job i used to skive quite a bit...  my manager often berated me for not coming in if i said the reason was that i had “a cold”. Apparently that was not good enough a reason, even if i genuinely did feel awful. I soon learnt however that if i said i had “flu” instead, he accepted it - without ever really understanding what the difference between them was.

[Geriatricdolan]

To be clear about infected, transmission,etc.  Firstly you inhale the virus. It is highly unlikely that the amount inhaled and able to cause infection would show up on a PCR test or lateral flow test.  The virus attaches to the cells and gets inside where it replicates first in the mucosal cells of the nasopharynx. The cells then Rupture and reinfect other cells. At this point after about 3-5 days of this cycle your PCR will become positive. However the vaccine has made no difference to the infection so far as the virus is still not “inside” the body.
Eventually the number of cells infected gets to a level where virus enters the blood stream and this is the point at which the vaccine will start to be of benefit and stop you becoming seriously ill.

To stop transmission from person to person completely you need a mucosal antibody and a vaccine delivered through the nose. These are under developments.

So can you explain why people who live with vaccinated health workers were less likely to be infected than people who live with unvaccinated health workers?

Less likely is the key word there. Seemingly, vaccinated people shed less virus than non vaccinated and therefore are on average less contagious. That accounts for the difference.
It is obviously good news, but you can see in the US infections are not going down and in Chile are actually going up, despite both having around half the population now vaccinated.
Basically, the degree to which the vaccine prevents people passing on the virus is not enough to put a lid on the spread. So other measures will be necessary for the foreseeable future.

[Hot Flatus]

At this point I'm curious as to why you are answering a question that was directed at chrisbainbridge, who is a medical professional.

Chris has already refuted one of your claims when he said this..

It is highly unlikely that the amount inhaled and able to cause infection would show up on a PCR test or lateral flow test.

...which directly contradicted you.

Is this a battle between health professionals?  May we know your medical credentials please, in order that we may gauge which one of you is speaking from a position of expertise?  I'm just a layman, and reliant on those who know what they are talking about.

[Geriatricdolan]

At this point I'm curious as to why you are answering a question that was directed at chrisbainbridge, who is a medical professional.

Chris has already refuted one of your claims when he said this..

It is highly unlikely that the amount inhaled and able to cause infection would show up on a PCR test or lateral flow test.

...which directly contradicted you.

Is this a battle between health professionals?  May we know your medical credentials please, in order that we may gauge which one of you is speaking from a position of expertise?  I'm just a layman, and reliant on those who know what they are talking about.

Nobody contradicted anybody. There was some uncertainty among some members as to which extent vaccines stop transmission, hopefully we all agree they don't... or they do to some extent, but not to a large extent. Not enough...
That's the bottom line and that's what matters, then you can go on with your semantics about the definition of the word "infection", but do it alone, possibly somewhere else

[Hot Flatus]

Sorry, you forgot to mention your medical credentials...

[Davef]

Interesting. My dog howls every time GD makes a post with percentages in it.

[Geriatricdolan]

Interesting. My dog howls every time GD makes a post with percentages in it.

Probably prefers fractional notation... that can be sorted

More to the point: lateral flow test kits retail at £ 200 for a pack of 25... right now no organiser would commit to that

[Davef]

Interesting. My dog howls every time GD makes a post with percentages in it.

Probably prefers fractional notation... that can be sorted

More to the point: lateral flow test kits retail at £ 200 for a pack of 25... right now no organiser would commit to that

His knowledge of epidemiological modelling is limited to kermack-mckendrick which is quite outdated so perhaps you could give some more modern insights. I agree no  organiser would pay for something that is currently free.

[Jaded]

"How vaccines work"

[Geriatricdolan]

I agree no  organiser would pay for something that is currently free.

Of course... but you can't get large quantities and certainly you can't rely on riders "bringing their own", as you know half of them won't and after all you are there to run an event, not to be a cop.
Of course, I have also worked out that if you run a lot of events, you can turn quite a big profit by charging for test to everyone and making 10 quid per rider that doesn't show up (provided these tests have a long enough shelf life), but I don't think any organiser worth their salt will be interested in "making money" this way.

Anyway, I detect a level of sarcasm and non-constructive targeted criticism around which is frankly annoying. We don't have to have this conversation, or any conversation, for what that matters.

[Davef]

I agree no  organiser would pay for something that is currently free.

Of course... but you can't get large quantities and certainly you can't rely on riders "bringing their own", as you know half of them won't and after all you are there to run an event, not to be a cop.
Of course, I have also worked out that if you run a lot of events, you can turn quite a big profit by charging for test to everyone and making 10 quid per rider that doesn't show up (provided these tests have a long enough shelf life), but I don't think any organiser worth their salt will be interested in "making money" this way.

Anyway, I detect a level of sarcasm and non-constructive targeted criticism around which is frankly annoying. We don't have to have this conversation, or any conversation, for what that matters.

Of course you can require people bring their own which they have to hand in exchange for the brevet card. It could be mandated by AUK.

Edit: I would also add they do have a long useby - 2 years so you could pop one in your saddle bag now if you are absent minded like me.

[TOBY]

Skimming this thread tells me the spirit of Audax is alive and well 

[salar55]

Problem with an  EBrevet? You would return to the original form of Audax, being that the organizers route. Who would want to check all the permutations. Never understood why someone enters an Audax and then decides the route is not good enough. These people could just do a diy?

[Davef]

Problem with an  EBrevet? You would return to the original form of Audax, being that the organizers route. Who would want to check all the permutations. Never understood why someone enters an Audax and then decides the route is not good enough. These people could just do a diy?

It could be done to be just like current non mandatory route audaxes. You might have say 4 controls and rather than picking up a receipt you click on a button on your phone.

[grams]

That's exactly how the eBrevet app works. The unworthy are still allowed to skip the hills.

[Philip Whiteman]

Skimming this thread tells me the spirit of Audax is alive and well 

Quite.

I have just closed July's Kidderminster Killer to entries due to overwhelming demand, though I may release further places in June.  My April and May x-rated audaxes were sold out in January at the height of the latest lockdown and I have a lengthy reserve list for each.  Filling audaxes has never been so easy!

[Philip Whiteman]

That's exactly how the eBrevet app works. The unworthy are still allowed to skip the hills.

Perhaps I am missing the point, but how does this differ for a paper brevet card?   

PS.  I am a fan of the new e-brevet. It is very easy to use for both rider and organiser.  In fact there is a lot less hassle than arranging printing, labelling and distribution of hard-based cards. Completion of a brevet is also notified to the organiser via e-mail, which is great for x-rated events.   My riders also loved it when trialling it last December.

PPS. After ranting earlier about this thread going off-topic, I am now going off topic.