Olympic Road Race Predictions

[Exit Stage Left]

Also, I love road racing but I don't think it should be in the Olympics. You have a qualifying system that favours established nations so while it's great that there's a rider from Outer Mongolia in the race, it's also a bit pointless. And seeing Bernie Eisel working for Cav makes a mockery of the Olympics. I cant think of another sport where this occurs (or if it did, without some sort of outcry).

I suppose it works as a metaphor.
Powerful nations will form temporary alliances at their convenience , partly to appeal to patriotic sentiment. Individuals and nations will cheat if possible.
Behind the scenes, trans-national capitalism is actually in control.
So an unrepentant Kazahk ex-drug cheat wins from a Colombian in the pay of James Murdoch, while other Murdoch riders and a repentant drug cheat fail to enlist the help of other mercenaries, because they've recently had their snouts in the trough too blatantly.

[marcusjb]

Also, I love road racing but I don't think it should be in the Olympics. You have a qualifying system that favours established nations so while it's great that there's a rider from Outer Mongolia in the race, it's also a bit pointless. And seeing Bernie Eisel working for Cav makes a mockery of the Olympics. I cant think of another sport where this occurs (or if it did, without some sort of outcry).

We have had the same discussions in our household - the whole fact that 4 people (and more from other countries, as you rightly point out) work to get one individual gold medal is really hard for people to grasp.

I don't know what the alternatives are - straight team time trial, road race with the winning country being the one with the top 3 aggregate times at the finish, a five-day stage race taking the Olympics out into the countryside?

I know it's dumbing down of our sport - but it is very difficult for people to understand the concept of 4 people busting their balls so that someone else can claim gold.  On the flipside, maybe that is the best example of the Olympic 'spirit' there is?

[spesh]

Also, I love road racing but I don't think it should be in the Olympics. You have a qualifying system that favours established nations so while it's great that there's a rider from Outer Mongolia in the race, it's also a bit pointless. And seeing Bernie Eisel working for Cav makes a mockery of the Olympics. I cant think of another sport where this occurs (or if it did, without some sort of outcry).

We have had the same discussions in our household - the whole fact that 4 people (and more from other countries, as you rightly point out) work to get one individual gold medal is really hard for people to grasp.

I don't know what the alternatives are - straight team time trial, road race with the winning country being the one with the top 3 aggregate times at the finish, a five-day stage race taking the Olympics out into the countryside?

I know it's dumbing down of our sport - but it is very difficult for people to understand the concept of 4 people busting their balls so that someone else can claim gold.  On the flipside, maybe that is the best example of the Olympic 'spirit' there is?

It's probably going to be impossible to revert the road race back to being ridden by amateurs, so perhaps it might be better to restrict participation to espoirs, the younger pros under 23 years of age.

[spesh]

Also, I love road racing but I don't think it should be in the Olympics. You have a qualifying system that favours established nations so while it's great that there's a rider from Outer Mongolia in the race, it's also a bit pointless. And seeing Bernie Eisel working for Cav makes a mockery of the Olympics. I cant think of another sport where this occurs (or if it did, without some sort of outcry).

Be interesting to see what the fall out in Austria is - in the 2005 world championships, Tom Southam and Charles Wegelius notoriously went "off-plan" and rode for their Italian trade team-mates rather than for Roger Hammond, their designated Team GB leader. As a result, John Herety resigned from the post of road team manager, and neither rider was picked for Team GB ever again.

[Exit Stage Left]

The TT is actually the race of truth. It's been set up nicely.

Germany and Australia have been dissed by a mouthy Cav, and Cancellara is uncertain. Did Wiggins do too much on Saturday, and did Froome pull out early enough? Evans and Rogers had a quiet day, and Tony Martin stretched his legs a bit before an early climb-off.

The Women's time trial is also nicely set up by yesterday, Armstrong is a gift for the journalists covering what would otherwise be a hard sell.

[spesh]

The TT is actually the race of truth. It's been set up nicely.

Germany and Australia have been dissed by a mouthy Cav, and Cancellara is uncertain. Did Wiggins do too much on Saturday, and did Froome pull out early enough? Evans and Rogers had a quiet day, and Tony Martin stretched his legs a bit before an early climb-off.

The Women's time trial is also nicely set up by yesterday, Armstrong is a gift for the journalists covering what would otherwise be a hard sell.

The Aussies are down to just Michael Rogers* in the TT - Evans has withdrawn, a joint decision between him and team/Olympic medical staff.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/evans-withdraws-from-olympic-time-trial-1

He wasn't in top form in the TdF, and he hadn't recovered during last week. He was practically invisible in the road race on Saturday.

* As noted in the report, none of the other road team riders, who could be picked as reserves, are all that good against the clock.

[citoyen]

Shame for Evans.

Tejay Van Garderen is looking a good bet for a podium place at the very least on Wednesday.

d.

[mattc]

Before criticising GB's plan, we should consider
Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Spain, NED, US,Belgium, Aus
who all had 5 riders, but no medals.
(Kaz+Col = 3 riders total)

And two of those teams preferred to race for 20th than a win.

There's too many random factors in the Olympics for a "strong" team to dominate (especially with 5, not 9, riders).

Behind the scenes, trans-national capitalism is actually in control.
So an unrepentant Kazahk ex-drug cheat wins from a Colombian in the pay of James Murdoch, while other Murdoch riders and a repentant drug cheat fail to enlist the help of other mercenaries, because they've recently had their snouts in the trough too blatantly.

Well I guess that's one interpretation ...

[Exit Stage Left]

That is a shame for Evans. O'Grady might be a good pick, he started as a pursuiter like Wiggins, last won a time trialling silver at the Commonwealth Games in Kuala Lumpur and has a Gold from the Madison in Athens. He's an old team mate of Wiggins from Credit Agricole, so there are some great sledging opportunities.

[Exit Stage Left]

I was inspired by the thought of O'Grady to look at my favourite team of all time. Eros Poli, O'Grady, Henk Vogels, Chris Boardman, Jens Voigt et al.
http://inrng.com/2011/07/credit-agricole-team-1999/

[Cudzoziemiec]

So I finally got around to looking up the results... and I'm impressed by the winners' photos, which really look like police mugshots! http://www.london2012.com/cycling-road/event=cycling-road-men-road-race/ Also I wonder if any other Olympic events have that many drop outs (pun not intended)?

[Gareth Rees]

Kristoff looks a lot like actor Julian McMahon.

[contango]

They should have gone with the attack at the top of box hill. Cav had the legs but they decided to stick together.

Porter:

Getting rider numbers wrong.
Confusing broken scaphoid with scapula.
Not being able to identify Cancellara when crashing, even when his Swiss flag was visible in the replay.
Pronouncing Robert Gesink completely differently to everyone who has gone before.

I don't have Eurosport so I was stuck with it.

He seemed to come up with his own specific pronunciation of "Greipel" as well. Thanks to BBC for chopping and changing channels so much my attempts to record the race while watching from Richmond Park were mostly ruined. Thanks also to the BBC for putting all those new channels on Sky and Virgin but apparently not Freeview. Thanks even more to the BBC for inflicting Hugh Porter on us. I quite like Chris Boardman but Porter seemed not to know anything about anything.

[drossall]

I think you just have to accept that one-day road racing is not a sport in which the strongest man always wins. Over a season of races, or over a Grand Tour, strength comes to the fore. On a single day, getting in the right break requires strength, judgement and a strong element of luck.

Breaks will always be formed of riders with conflicting hopes and motivations. It's not great if trade team loyalties distort the inter-national competition, but it's a relatively minor factor.

The bar on professionals collapsed in the face of most leading amateurs being professionals in all but name anyway. I think that going back to minor riders that no-one has (yet) heard of would do our sport no favours at all.

We may not have produced the gold in the men's race, but we've had one good race and one brilliant one in terms of excitement, and that can only lead to more public interest in future.

Heck, after the women's race, the BBC's chief sports editor may even know a little more about bike racing

[teethgrinder]

I agree ^^

It wasn't the result I wanted. I wanted Cav to win too. But that's not how it works. I doubt that so many would have turned up at the roadside to watch without Wiggins and Cav riding.
In a way, I think that GB not winning made it a better experience. Had it all gone to GB's plan, they wouldn't have been going at full tilt for so long, which was a privilage to watch and the race wouldn't have been as dramatic.

I really enjoyed watching the Khazak rider doing the crafty to get the advantage for the sprint finish. like drossal says. It was like when my dad told me I had a puncture before spriniting down the road while I checked my tyres.

[drossall]

To be fair, it wasn't me who commented on the crafty. I agree though:

I did like the finish sprint though. The silver medalist looked behind and the winner went the other way. Before the silver medalist knew what was happening, the winner allready had about 5m on him.

[citoyen]

I've read that the TT course has just 125 metres of ascent. That is almost impossibly flat, even by central London standards.

Who will this favour? Should suit Tony Martin, I'd have thought.

d.

[JT]

I'm not being facetious but it will suit TT'ers - rouleurs like Brad/Tony/Fabian. Some of the riders are tweeting today saying it's a fast course.

It's not very technical so the weather could play a part and the start order will be influential anyway because there are only 90 second intervals between riders.

Going on form, my pick would be Wiggins, and Froome should be up there too. I fear Cancellara's heavy crash in the road race will affect him and one has to hope that Martin is on different tyres than the puncture-happy clinchers his team uses.

[citoyen]

I'm not being facetious but it will suit TT'ers

Heh. Yes, it's certainly too flat to give the climbers any hope.

Tejay Van Garderen kept his powder very dry in the road race, as did EBH...

Would like to see either of them, or indeed Chavanel, troubling the podium.

I hope Cancellara is fit enough to show what he's capable of - I want Wiggo to win, but it would be nice to see him beat Cancellara/Martin in a fair fight rather than win "by default" because the opposition are injured/punctured.

d.

[JT]

I hope Cancellara is fit enough to show what he's capable of - I want Wiggo to win, but it would be nice to see him beat Cancellara/Martin in a fair fight rather than win "by default" because the opposition are injured/punctured.

A very British attitude that. 

If I could pick a winner, I'd like Froome to win as a sort of recognition-payback for his work in the Tour (I know he's already handsomely remunerated).

I like Chavanel  too - a good, entertaining rider. But not quite so keen on Van Garderen after his behaviour in the Tour, and for having a stupid first name. 

[TimC]

I can't see Froome being better than third, tbh. I think he's struggling to hang on to form, and even at his best he's no match for Brad/Martin/Cancellara. Spartacus is unlikely to be firing on all cylinders after that crash, so I reckon it will come down to a fight between Brad and Tony. And Wiggins gave far more on Saturday than Martin did, so I reckon it's evens between these two!

[citoyen]

not quite so keen on Van Garderen after his behaviour in the Tour, and for having a stupid first name. 

Yes, he went down in my estimation in the Tour, but you've got to admire his phenomenal talent. If not his stupid first name.

d.

[contango]

I've read that the TT course has just 125 metres of ascent. That is almost impossibly flat, even by central London standards.

Who will this favour? Should suit Tony Martin, I'd have thought.

d.

Interesting, I found 125 metres hard to believe so I plugged the route into bikeroutetoaster and it reckoned 147 metres.

[David Martin]

The only hilly part is seven hills road (which last timeI went along there [1] only had about three rollers on it), the rest is pan flat.

Some bits may be mildly technical, eg Kingston town centre (which will be very busy). Lots of folk going to watch from the local populace, many to just say they have been to the Olympics. There is predicted to be a tailwind up the Portsmouth Road - expect them to be going very very fast.

[1] I was working in weybridge and took a scenic route home to New Malden via seven hills road and box hill.

[JT]

I forgot about Taylor Phinney earlier - he could do well too.