Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?

[LateStarter]

  It looks like French riders are taking the pre-inscription more easily than foreigners.

Yes the numbers you point to as at a few days ago are worse than the French 15% I quoted above which was from 16/01. The ACP review of the BRM 1000 & LRM pre-registrations indicates the French proportion is only 12% (271 of 2260 "validated" pre-registrations) as at 26/01 near the end of the first 2 weeks pre-registrations.
https://www.paris-brest-paris.org/en/first-pre-registration-wave-some-numbers/ (English Version)

There were 207 French LRMs in 2022 (compared with 119 in 2018) so unless the BRM 1000 numbers had collapsed you would expect a reasonable pool of people with a good longest ride. Is there any reason to believe French long distance riding is not healthy? Maybe they will have to allow French registrations without a longest ride requirement or even a 2023 qualification SR to make up the 2500 quota?

PS The only 2022 brevet numbers that have been published included only the "top three countries" which included France with 10200 compared with  7226 in 2018, so a reasonable increase (no details as to distance breakdown)
https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=124818.msg2779975#msg2779975

[Ivo]

French long distance riding is certainly not healthy.
There are only 3 regions in France where there are multiple clubs organising BRM's consistently in non-PBP years. North, Bretagne and Ile de France. For the rest there are either individual clubs (or rather said, individual organisers) scattered over a few places or absolutely nothing. This creates a situation where riders don't do any long distances except for the PBP years.
Also on the technical field, the situation is unhealthy. For your average French cyclist it's impossible to buy decent lighting from local sources. Only very few online shops offer decent lighting. One of my French friends was flabbergasted when in a German building market he spotted 70 lux dynamo lights and 80 lux battery lights, just hanging about in the bike section.
The French clubs complaining about the lack of French riders during PBP should look at themselves, if you offer a lot of rides, at accessible spots and with accessible starttimes (not 4am for a 300), there'll be a lot more new randonneurs. Especially if they can build up in the years prior to PBP.

[Flâneur]

There were 207 French LRMs in 2022 (compared with 119 in 2018)

There were 207 LRM homologations on French soil last year. I don't think it's possible from the LRM database to determine how many French/FFCT riders completed a qualifying 1200+ abroad (including LEL)

[Ajax Bay]

As it stands nearly over 3300 entries still available.

20/08   80h00   572
20/08   90h00   1697
21/08   84h00   1106

I think if you Audaxed in 2022 on a qualifying ride of 300km+ then you'll probably be ok.  As mentioned above, if you don't get in initially you will by August.  I've not checked any historic data, but I think LEL riders who got in early due to the 2022 delay, would have otherwise ridden a 600k anyway, so it's likely to have settled down now.

With minutes to pre-registrations opening for non-FFCT French with a 600 BRM last year (not many of those - ?200) and therefore most of the '600s' in, the current number of starts left are:
4 Feb    Time limit  Remaining  Taken by '600s'
20/08    80h00    501             358
20/08    90h00    1494           1644
21/08    84h00    1063            233

27 Jan - pre-600             Taken by '1000s'
20/08    80h00    859       390
20/08    90h00    3138     1662
21/08    84h00    1296      354

13 Jan - pre-1000
20/08    80h00    1249
20/08    90h00    4800
21/08    84h00    1550

[CrazyEnglishTriathlete]

And many of those who have registered will end up not riding, either because of other commitments or for not getting their qualifying rides in.  As a case in point, I had a guaranteed (previous volunteer place) on LEL last year, but did not enter because of a clash with a significant wedding anniversary.

For PBP that's easily the case.  All it takes is an ill-timed illness or one of those freak mechanicals, and the planned 600 is out of the window with no time to get in a replacement event.

[David H]

Having broken my collarbone coming off our tandem on Saterday, I think the odds are getting longer.

[Zed43]

ACP posted some stats of registrations at the end of the BRM600 cohort. Already more registrations from India than there riders from that country last time (hopefully this time more than 15% will finish...)

I'm really curious whether the 2500 allotted places for the French will actually be used; by the time they wake up and head over to registration only the unpopular 84h slots will be left, will they then decide to ride anyway?

[LateStarter]

ACP posted some stats of registrations at the end of the BRM600 cohort. Already more registrations from India than there riders from that country last time (hopefully this time more than 15% will finish...)

I'm really curious whether the 2500 allotted places for the French will actually be used; by the time they wake up and head over to registration only the unpopular 84h slots will be left, will they then decide to ride anyway?

Approaching two thirds of places taken the "French" are still only at less than 20% rather than the 31% target, Alain COLLONGUES (ACP) says " the French, knowing that 2,500 places are reserved for them, have not necessarily sought to obtain pre-qualification certificates", will they be allowed to register without?.

A quota of 2500 French means that the "others" can only pre-register until there are 5500 of them (leaving a potential 2500 for French), the 90h will likely fill up at a similar time, as far as I can see this number will be reached during the 300 longest brevet group and pre-registration will stop for non-French and continue for French 300s & 200s  and as you say there will likely only be 80 & 84h left for them. When the general registration opens (late May) it will only be for French? Gets messy then when the pre-registrations for riders without 3 2023 qualifying rides are cancelled (late June) and a new free for all for riders with 3 qualifiers but the two quotas will still apply? Will French riders without all qualifiers be allowed to register in order to fill the quota? I am in favour of encouraging a degree of Frenchness for PBP but I hope all the issues have been thought through.

I guess just keep riding,

[Lightning Phil]

Having broken my collarbone coming off our tandem on Saterday, I think the odds are getting longer.

Bugger, heal well

[Ajax Bay]

With minutes to pre-registrations opening for non-FFCT French with a 600 BRM last year (not many of those - ?200) and therefore most of the '600s' in, the current number of starts left are:
4 Feb    Time limit  Remaining  Taken by '600s'
20/08    80h00    501             358
20/08    90h00    1494           1644
21/08    84h00    1063            233

With 30 hours to pre-registrations opening for 400 BRMs last year, the current number of starts left are:
Date    Time limit   Remaining places Taken by 600s (incl French non-FFCT)
20/08    80h00    418                       431
20/08    90h00    1349                    1789   
21/08    84h00    1023                     273

[Ajax Bay]

With 30 hours to pre-registrations opening for 400 BRMs last year, the current number of starts left are:
Date    Time limit   Remaining places Taken by 600s (incl French non-FFCT)
20/08    80h00    418                       431
20/08    90h00    1349                    1789   
21/08    84h00    1023                     273

Twenty-eight hours after the 400s got a bite, here are the remaining starts:
Date    Time limit  Remaining places Taken by 400s (so far)
20/08    80h00    285                      133
20/08    90h00    743                      606
21/08    84h00    939                      84

Looks like there's going to be a lot of 'chancers' starting on Monday.
[Speculative 200 BRM completed yesterday.]

[madcow]

Still over 500 places for 90 hour group ,albeit with late starts.

[Ajax Bay]

Still over 500 places for 90 hour group ,albeit with late starts.

675
All the 300s still to have a bite, let alone the 200s.
Date    Time limit   Remaining places
20/08    80h00    264
20/08    90h00    675
21/08    84h00    928

[grecko]

Still over 500 places for 90 hour group ,albeit with late starts.

675
All the 300s still to have a bite, let alone the 200s.
Date    Time limit   Remaining places
20/08    80h00    264
20/08    90h00    675
21/08    84h00    928

To add more info, note that there is only 7700 spots spread over all the groups on the site, so I guess the ACP keeps 300 spots to redistribute them later.

Here are the first non-special available group for each time limit, as advertised by the PBP website:
80h: group D with 76 spots left, starting at 16:45
90h: group S with 29 spots left, starting at 20:30
84h: group X with 182 spots left, starting at 05:15
The last group of the 90h and 84h starts appears to be preferred compared to the second to last group (90 registered for the U vs 16 for the T, 89 for the + vs 22 for the Z)

Both special groups are still available.

[GdS]

what's the current status for complete noobs? I have a clubmate who's up for it but has only done 1 200 (and not a BRM) in 2022

[LateStarter]

what's the current status for complete noobs? I have a clubmate who's up for it but has only done 1 200 (and not a BRM) in 2022

Won’t get a look in until late June (20th) when places will become available from pre-registered riders who have not done at least 3 qualifying 2023 SR rides by then and their pre-registered status is cancelled. At which stage your clubmate will have to have at least 3 if not all 4 2023 SR rides compete so tell them to get cracking.

Currently the pre-reg places will likely fill up in the next few weeks during the 300km longest 2022 brevet 2 week period especially for non French as this quota (5500 places) will be reached before the total places (8000) fill and especially for 90h places.

PS. Nominally the registration for non pre-registered riders starts on 27 May but there will be no places available then until the 20 June cancellations occur

[GdS]

what's the current status for complete noobs? I have a clubmate who's up for it but has only done 1 200 (and not a BRM) in 2022

Won’t get a look in until late June (20th) when places will become available from pre-registered riders who have not done at least 3 qualifying 2023 SR rides by then and their pre-registered status is cancelled. At which stage your clubmate will have to have at least 3 if not all 4 2023 SR rides compete so tell them to get cracking.

Currently the pre-reg places will likely fill up in the next few weeks during the 300km longest 2022 brevet 2 week period especially for non French as this quota (5500 places) will be reached before the total places (8000) fill and especially for 90h places.

PS. Nominally the registration for non pre-registered riders starts on 27 May but there will be no places available then until the 20 June cancellations occur

ok thanks  that's pretty much what I thought. In 2006 there were no prequalifying rides it was down to getting the SR in asap which I did. I did the very first qualifying 600 (BCM) but all the AUK entries were sent in together so early rides did not get any advantage

[grams]

What are the chances ACP look at the numbers on June 20th and decide the ride is full?

Have they confirmed definitely that places will be resold? I know it’s pretty likely but I’d love to see it in writing.

[Hofnar]

What are the chances ACP look at the numbers on June 20th and decide the ride is full?

Have they confirmed definitely that places will be resold? I know it’s pretty likely but I’d love to see it in writing.

Hard too tell.

But 2019 might give an idea. They increased the numbers of pre inscriptions and said no places available in june. But in the end so many didn't  confirm that they reopend entries( round the 25 th) and didn't even manage  to sell those places.

But things might be a bit different as in 2019 many believed the no more places so didn't complete the series I expect more to continue so more interest for the june slots.
Also pre inscription was increased from 30 to 50 Euro's so more likely less chancers( in 2019 quite some people pre entered who where likely not to complete the series but thought 30 bucks ain't much to keep my options open)

I haven't seen anything in the rules about places being resold. But then in 2019 the explicitly said they would'nt but did. And there where many I was one of those to benefit from those and there was even a very vast choice of groups available. I entered in B on  sunday 23/06 that year 1500 pre entries where abandonned.
The rules do mention a waiting list for when entries are sold out so might be good to watch out for more information on that one.

Do be ready for the reopening cos places will go fast and good groups even faster. Create an account on the website before and check that your BRM are present. You don't need all but I believe at least 3 out of 4 by that date, in any case most will have done all as limit date is only two weeks later. In 2019  even some extra BRM where organised in those ten days for those missing one so they could fill up their gaps.

[LateStarter]

What are the chances ACP look at the numbers on June 20th and decide the ride is full?

Have they confirmed definitely that places will be resold? I know it’s pretty likely but I’d love to see it in writing.

You are correct , I can't find a specific statement how the later parts of the registration will be handled especially with the French quota, ACP can manage it as they want to achieve whatever goals they wish. In 2019 there were 1500 pre-registrations cancelled due to not achieving the 3 SR rides by late June and they only offered 900 places to replace these.

I assume the PBP "costs" include a large fixed component and they will want some break even number of registrations to cover these. ACP has highlighted the 2500 French / 5500 others / 8000 total targets for 2023 and everyone assumes the trend for bigger / better PBP will drive the numbers higher. As at 13/Feb there were 1240 French and 4540 non-French pre-registrations so the "others" are on target for filling the 5500 quota in a few weeks (with 300 longest rides?) but the French are lagging so might continue into French only 200 longest rides but what happens after that has no precedent, are they so wedded to 2500 French that they will modify some qualification requirements?

Alain COLLONGUES (ACP) said on 8/Feb (in the French section of the PBP 23 site), " the French, knowing that 2,500 places are reserved for them, have not necessarily sought to obtain pre-qualification certificates" so he is expecting an issue with the normal pre-registration process?

Endless discussion fodder on those long qualification rides?

PS having rediscovered some old 2019 spreadsheets I see that when pre-registration "filled up" at 10/04/2019 there were (approx) 1600 French and 6000 non-French, I assume pre-registration in 2023 for non-French will stop at 5500 and may or may not recommence later if the French quota is not going to fill?

[Hofnar]

Alain COLLONGUES (ACP) said on 8/Feb (in the French section of the PBP 23 site), " the French, knowing that 2,500 places are reserved for them, have not necessarily sought to obtain pre-qualification certificates" so he is expecting an issue with the normal pre-registration process?

He just means that their entries will be more back loaded. As they didn't do many BRM's(there aren't that many outside PBP year in any case) So many in the french relaxed attitude didn't bother and will enter late.

FYI I am not french but have been living there for a while and follow the discussions on french boards.

There is a limited groupof long distance passionates. and then there are the masses that around this time of the year hear about PBP(again) and get the bike and long distance interest/motivation out from under the dust.

[Suffolk Born]

Totally agree with the above, many in France have just entered their 200BRM.

As of 13.03.23 - 5777 pre inscriptions, so looking like a full house later on. 65 countries represented.

Regards

[Ajax Bay]

Facts and (post today) supposition
ACP stated 8000 of which 2500 reserved for French nationals.
Availability on the pre-registration mechanism was 7600.
As @ 18 Feb, 5820 have pre-registered, of whom (estimate) 1300 French: 1780 remain shown as available.
Assume 1000 of those will be kept for French (and another 200 released on 27 May - for French only).
1030 pre-registered with a 400 last year.
2493 pre-registered with a 600 last year.
2297 pre-registered with a 1000 (and +) last year.
Opportunity for non-FRA riders to pre-register is now 780: surely we can assume that anyone slow at 1100 UTC on 25 March will find pre-registration closed. Suspect pre-registration will remain open for FRA nationals.
27 May: Registration proper opens, but additional starts released only for FRA nationals (up to the balance of 2500)
[Registration requires 3 BRM homologation numbers (select any 3 from 200, 300, 400, 600 (or longer ride(s) in lieu).]
20 Jun: Any pre-registered riders who have not converted their pre-r to registration (and paid full entry fee balance) will have their pre-registration 'cancelled'. Last time there were more than 1500 cancellations and these slots (starts and start wave slots) were 'released' for others to register (as in 'enter').
Anyone taking this route (I am one) will need three BRM homologation numbers (select any 3 from 200, 300, 400, 600 (or longer ride(s) in lieu)) ready to submit as part of that entry.
"You can register before having completed the last qualifying brevet, but your registration will be cancelled and not refunded if we don’t receive its homologation number, at least on July 2, 2023 (at midnight French time)."
2 Jul 2300 UTC-1 = BST: All those who have registered (whether pre-registered or otherwise) must have provided all 4 BRM homologation numbers by then.
In UK (we are lucky) there are nine BRM 600s in the period 17-24 Jun thanks to the great efforts of all the organisers for the last.minute.com merchants and AudaxUK has systems in place to turn the submitted results from those round in short order to allow riders relying on a 'result' to have that last homologation number.

https://www.paris-brest-paris.org/en/how-to-register/

[Von Broad]

20 Jun: Any pre-registered riders who have not converted their pre-r to registration (and paid full entry fee balance) will have their pre-registration 'cancelled'. Last time there were more than 1500 cancellations and these slots (starts and start wave slots) were 'released' for others to register (as in 'enter').

This was the mistake [if you can call it that ] I made in 2019. With all places being taken with pre-qualifying riders, I gave up the ghost on the 600, only to find subsequently that it was possible to climb on board at the last minute.......had I bagged all the rides in 2019 that is.
Moral of the story: anybody wanting to do the ride who hasn't done a pre-qualifying ride in 2022, will 'most likely' [hold with a lightness of touch] be able to. You've just got to prepare yourself with the assumption that it's going to be possible. The French love a drama

[Tom]

20 Jun: Any pre-registered riders who have not converted their pre-r to registration (and paid full entry fee balance) will have their pre-registration 'cancelled'. Last time there were more than 1500 cancellations and these slots (starts and start wave slots) were 'released' for others to register (as in 'enter').

This was the mistake [if you can call it that ] I made in 2019. With all places being taken with pre-qualifying riders, I gave up the ghost on the 600, only to find subsequently that it was possible to climb on board at the last minute.......had I bagged all the rides in 2019 that is.
Moral of the story: anybody wanting to do the ride who hasn't done a pre-qualifying ride in 2022, will 'most likely' [hold with a lightness of touch] be able to. You've just got to prepare yourself with the assumption that it's going to be possible. The French love a drama

A great shout! I'm very much in that category and am going to plough on regardless. All being well, I should have completed my 4 BRM rides by June 20th (starting with a 200 on Wednesday), so I'll crack on and keep my fingers crossed that there are enough drop outs....