Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?

[Tom]

I've just clocked that we're coming into a pbp year (I know, I know...) and am about to ask a question that I'm sure has been asked 1000s of times before, but so far unable to find a steer. I've had a good look through the qualification criteria and understand that I might theoretically be able to get a place, subject to completing an sr series this year, but just wondered whether anyone knows how likely it is that any places will be left by then? I haven't done any audax events since completing lel in 2007, but have always done lots of miles (12 and 24hr TTs, Torino-nice, SDW double etc) and am reasonably confident about the physical side of things. I'm also really up for an SR campaign, with a few bucket list events like the BCM, and will probably have a go at that regardless. However, I don't want to get too excited about PBP if people's experience is that it will likely fill up during the pre-registration phase. Hope that makes sense and thanks in advance!

[LittleWheelsandBig]

To date PBP has never actually sold out and the organiser expects that situation to continue for the next edition.

Last PBP, I was overly pessimistic about non-prequalified riders being able to enter it, which discouraged some folk. Don’t be discouraged, just plough on with getting the brevets done. You might not get your preferred start time but that isn’t actually important.

[Tom]

Thanks, that's brilliant news! Now I'm excited...

[grams]

Expect it to “sell out” during pre-registration but for a significant fraction of those people to not take places and thus lose their deposits. Spare places will then be resold in June.

[Tom]

Thanks @grams. Just rejoined AUK and planning my first SR qualifier. Fingers crossed...

[citoyen]

I’m in the same boat, but I’ve been here before.

All I can say is the reason I’ve never done PBP is not down to a lack of available places. I reckon the worst you can expect is not getting your first choice of start time.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

See you both on the start line.

[citoyen]

Chances of me being fit enough to enter this year are not looking good right now. Last brevet I did was a 200 in July 2021. Last one before that was September 2018!

[LittleWheelsandBig]

I know somebody who DNFed a January 200 (having never ridden more than 100km before) and comfortably finished PBP in August. You are already well ahead of where she was in the December before PBP.

[Lightning Phil]

You can but ride your bike, enter a March 200 that’s a PBP qualifier and go from there. A solid 2 months to build your fitness from where you are now, before trying a 200.

[Wycombewheeler]

To date PBP has never actually sold out and the organiser expects that situation to continue for the next edition.

Last PBP, I was overly pessimistic about non-prequalified riders being able to enter it, which discouraged some folk. Don’t be discouraged, just plough on with getting the brevets done. You might not get your preferred start time but that isn’t actually important.

I have to agree with this, I think in 2019, places sold out halfway through the people with a BRM300 from 2018. Then many people failed the qualifiers and places became available to those who had pushed on with their qualifiers regardless. Those who had given up lost out, but all those who had ridden their SR series were able to ride PBP.

Also on the start time not making much difference, in PBP 2019 I had my preferred start time as one of the early 90hr group, and remained comfortably ahead of the bulge moving through controls easily. Most notable was waking up in Carhaix to find bodies everywhere, but when I had gone to sleep the night before it was quite quiet.

However on LEL, I did not get my preferred start time and bounced along hitting the back of the bulge, a few controls were busy, but I probably lost less than an hour in extra queueing across the entire ride. I suppose an hour lost might be crucial to some people, but most will finish on time either way.

[citoyen]

I know somebody who DNFed a January 200 (having never ridden more than 100km before) and comfortably finished PBP in August. You are already well ahead of where she was in the December before PBP.

But... er... er... I'm running out of excuses, dammit! 

[Ajax Bay]

To date PBP has never actually sold out and the organiser expects that situation to continue for the next edition.
Last PBP, I was overly pessimistic about non-prequalified riders being able to enter it, which discouraged some folk. Don’t be discouraged, just plough on with getting the brevets done. You might not get your preferred start time but that isn’t actually important.

I have to agree with this, I think in 2019, places sold out halfway through the people with a BRM300 from 2018. Then many people failed the qualifiers and places became available to those who had pushed on with their qualifiers regardless. Those who had given up lost out, but all those who had ridden their SR series were able to ride PBP.
. . .

What actually happened was that the places 'ran out' during the count down of those whose longest ride was a 300km in 2018. And then there was lots of Gallic sadness because loads of French riders seemed likely to be excluded from 'their' ride. So the Organisation miraculously 'found' another 850 starts slots (started 30 minutes earlier on Sunday afternoon and added a start time on Monday dawn). Starts still ran out (by 10 Apr) but were freed up in June.

Pre-registrations will be open on 14/01/2023 at noon (Paris time)[for those with 1000km+ BRMs or LRMs, and then every fortnight (600, 400, 300, 200 last on 11 Mar)] with overall 2500 starts reserved for 'French nationals'.
Start date Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00    1249
20/08    90h00    4800
21/08    84h00    1550

[LateStarter]

Pre-registrations will be open on 14/01/2023 at noon (Paris time)[for those with 1000km+ BRMs or LRMs, and then every fortnight (600, 400, 300, 200 last on 11 Mar)] with overall 2500 starts reserved for 'French nationals'.
Start date Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00    1249
20/08    90h00    4800
21/08    84h00    1550

I see you got those numbers from the registration sub-site on the PBP 2023 site but 401 places seem to have disappeared already from the "remaining places" (the table totals 7599 not the 8,000 total / 2500 French / 5500 "rest" we were previously told was the limit, maybe the numbers have to be re-set for 2023? Guess we might know more after the weekend and the ACP "PBP Presentation" on Saturday afternoon (anyone going to be there?).

When the 2019 pre-registration "filled up" on 10 April 2019 there were about 1600 French pre-registered and 6000 "rest of the world" (total 7600) but the "rest"quota for 2023 will be max 5500 so already a bit of additional competition suggesting the rest of world pre-reg will fill earlier than early April?
 
The 2022 BRM stats* are not yet on the ACP site but there was an early December ACP FB site post saying the 2022 brevets were ahead of the 2018 (previous pre PBP year), details only for top 3 countries,  India: 13000 (2022) compared to 8461 (2018),  Japan: 12000 cf 13461 and France: 10200 cf 7226, all suggesting a still hot pre-reg from just those 3.

Rest of the "top 10 countries" (but no details) were  Thailand, USA, Italy, Brazil, Germany, UK and Malaysia (in order I assume?) The total brevet kms was noted as 31 million cf 32 million in 2018

Good luck everyone, my interest may well be just academic?

* https://www.audax-club-parisien.com/en/our-organizations/brm-world/#results-BRM

[Ivo]

Pre-registrations will be open on 14/01/2023 at noon (Paris time)[for those with 1000km+ BRMs or LRMs, and then every fortnight (600, 400, 300, 200 last on 11 Mar)] with overall 2500 starts reserved for 'French nationals'.
Start date Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00    1249
20/08    90h00    4800
21/08    84h00    1550

I see you got those numbers from the registration sub-site on the PBP 2023 site but 401 places seem to have disappeared already from the "remaining places" (the table totals 7599 not the 8,000 total / 2500 French / 5500 "rest" we were previously told was the limit, maybe the numbers have to be re-set for 2023? Guess we might know more after the weekend and the ACP "PBP Presentation" on Saturday afternoon (anyone going to be there?).

I'll be there

[Ajax Bay]

Pre-registrations will be open on 14/01/2023 at noon (Paris time)[for those with 1000km+ BRMs or LRMs, and then every fortnight (600, 400, 300, 200 last on 11 Mar)] with overall 2500 starts reserved for 'French nationals'.
Start date Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00    1249
20/08    90h00    4800
21/08    84h00    1550

I see you got those numbers from the registration sub-site on the PBP 2023 site but 401 places seem to have disappeared already from the "remaining places" (the table totals 7599 not the 8,000 total / 2500 French / 5500 "rest" we were previously told was the limit, maybe the numbers have to be re-set for 2023? Guess we might know more after the weekend and the ACP "PBP Presentation" on Saturday afternoon . . 

The PBP Rule 3 is the source for "8000 of whom 2500 French" so more solid than what "we were previously told was the limit". Perhaps ACP just can't add up or they are working in a fudge factor. Of course they will monitor this and if the French pre-registrations look like getting up to 2500 they can release the extra slots (to make it up to 8000).
As the days of pre-registration tick over people can follow the reducing numbers. I recall (not working that early 2019 unlike at present) having endless fun tracking that. I will go back and have a look at the stats - edit: see @Ivo 's post after the 1000+ merchants had had their bite.
Unlike 2018 when I enjoyed Graeme's WH1000 - please run it again) and so pre-registered on 13 Jan and could select one of the earliest 90 hour starts, I rode no BRMs last year so I shall be SRing in expectation more than mere hope of snagging a start slot in June.
If someone still has a spare bed in mid June in one of the Huttopia cabines (we did in 2019 and managed to fill with a couple of solo riders) then I'll likely be v interested.

ACP stats:2018 homologations
1000km   2431
600km    10569
400km    13067
300km    20333
2000km  60599

By 22 Jan 2019 of the 2431 riders doing a 1000+km ride world-wide in 2018, 1926 had pre-registered.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

ACP stats:2018 homologations
1000km   2431
600km    10569
400km    13067
300km    20333
2000km  60599

By 22 Jan 2019 of the 2431 riders doing a 1000+km ride world-wide in 2018, 1926 had pre-registered.

A few folk had done more than 1 x 1000 in 2018, so a slightly higher percentage of 1000km riders had preregistered.

[LateStarter]

And there is 2819 LRM homologations in 2022, 941 from UK (LEL plus others) and 136 from India. I don’t know how many of those are considered for the “1000/1200 & +” pre-reg category (all?). With an unknown number of 1000s the pre-reg quota might be half full on 14 January?

There were 1600 LRM in 2018

[Lightning Phil]

My 1000 in 2022 is showing as BRM in my PBP account info. It also has this message showing.

“ The French and 1200+ BRMs are not yet available!
Registration in the PBP does not depend on the results in this list”

[LateStarter]

Pre-registrations will be open on 14/01/2023 at noon (Paris time)[for those with 1000km+ BRMs or LRMs, and then every fortnight (600, 400, 300, 200 last on 11 Mar)] with overall 2500 starts reserved for 'French nationals'.
Start date Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00    1249
20/08    90h00    4800
21/08    84h00    1550

At this stage there is nothing much to do other than keep riding and some idle speculation. The 80 & 90h numbers are comparable with (slightly more than) the final completed registrations for 2019 (1227 & 4529) but the 1550 is considerably more than the 917 completed registrations in the 2019 84h group, maybe an attempt to shift / stretch the bulge? The "missing" 401 places might be "found" later or before the pre-reg starts.

[Ivo]

Pre-registrations will be open on 14/01/2023 at noon (Paris time)[for those with 1000km+ BRMs or LRMs, and then every fortnight (600, 400, 300, 200 last on 11 Mar)] with overall 2500 starts reserved for 'French nationals'.
Start date Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00    1249
20/08    90h00    4800
21/08    84h00    1550

The ACP over the past years tried to persuade people to start in the 84 hour group.
On saturday, Faburel stated quite clearly that he expects that everyone who qualifies can start but that those who didn't pre-qualify run the chance of missing their prefered starting slot.
I understand this as if you haven't pre-qualified, then there's a chance that you won't get a 90h starting spot but have to do with 84h.
At this stage there is nothing much to do other than keep riding and some idle speculation. The 80 & 90h numbers are comparable with (slightly more than) the final completed registrations for 2019 (1227 & 4529) but the 1550 is considerably more than the 917 completed registrations in the 2019 84h group, maybe an attempt to shift / stretch the bulge? The "missing" 401 places might be "found" later or before the pre-reg starts.

[frillipippi]

I'm a great fan of 84 hour groups: a lot more day riding vs. night riding, starting at the end implies you'll mainly overtake other riders instead of been overtook and this boosts your morale, etc.
Nonetheless, this time I'll try and go for an afternoon start because the overall plan is to stay in downtown Paris with the family and there's no train in the early morning to get to Rambouillet in time for starting at 6 AM. If the start wasn't 50 km away from downtown or trains were available so early in the morning, I'd surely choose 84 hours. But riding a prologue of 50 km in the dark alone coming out of such a large town that I'm not familiar with, along a route I design by myself, is a no-no.

[LittleWheelsandBig]

I have ridden 2x90, 2x84 and 2x90VS PBPs. I slightly prefer the early 90hr starts if you are average quick or quicker, to stay in front of the bulge throughout. A friend is slower than average and prefers the late 90hr starts to stay behind the bulge most of the way. HK prefers the 84hr start to avoid the bulge until near the finish.

The intermediate control closing times are often quite tight for the 84hr starts, so the advice to ‘race out, ride back’ is pretty accurate. The 90hr starts’ control closing times felt a bit more even-paced.

[Paul D]

The main reason I wouldn't do the 84 hour start again was the lack of ceremony at the off; stick with the 80 or 90 hour start if you want to be cheered off like a hero.

[Wycombewheeler]

The main reason I wouldn't do the 84 hour start again was the lack of ceremony at the off; stick with the 80 or 90 hour start if you want to be cheered off like a hero.

I heard that generally there is less fanfare all the way through as the towns and villages have become jaded by the time the 84hr riders come through. I've only experienced the 90 hour ride, so can't make comparisons.

Last time at the finish I thought about going for the 80hr start this time, but now I think there is no need to put extra pressure on myself, just take the first 90hr start and ride to Brest for the first sleep. Ride as if the limit is 80, but having a buffer.