MH370 missing

[clarion]

Tim, RE the collision theory. If an aircraft were flying an unnotified flight through the area would they not choose a flight level that isn't used by the commercial traffic? Say the 29,500 that the aircraft crossing the Malay peninsular is supposed to have been at? Or maybe it was transiting between two flight levels and got very unlucky?

That would be very unlucky indeed, and, like the missile theory would, as Tim pointed out for that case, leave significant debris.

[TimC]

Tim, RE the collision theory. If an aircraft were flying an unnotified flight through the area would they not choose a flight level that isn't used by the commercial traffic? Say the 29,500 that the aircraft crossing the Malay peninsular is supposed to have been at? Or maybe it was transiting between two flight levels and got very unlucky?

There have been far more mid-air collisions involving airliners than shootdowns, and several have involved aircraft flying outside controlled airspace. I'm not sure of the status of the airspace that MH370 was flying in, but it's likely to be fairly open airspace in which anyone can fly. There are many aircraft that can fly at that kind of altitude, and (for example) major-league drugs smugglers do use executive jets to move their products quickly and secretly, and will take great care not to inform air traffic control where they are or where they're going. I don't know whether there is a lot of drugs traffic in that area, but I'm pretty sure that the possibility is being investigated.

You may recall the event in Brazil in 2006 in which an executive jet collided with a 737, which crashed killing all on board. The executive jet landed safely.

[fuzzy]

Space debris?

There is shit falling to earth on a daily basis. Some of it makes it to the surface but, 'cos the surface is so big, most of it goes unnoticed. It must be at least a million to one chace of a plane being hit but, we all know what is said about million to one chances.

Being a bit crass there but, one day, something flying is going to be hit by space junk/ meteorite. Why not the other day?

[PeteB99]

Tim, RE the collision theory. If an aircraft were flying an unnotified flight through the area would they not choose a flight level that isn't used by the commercial traffic? Say the 29,500 that the aircraft crossing the Malay peninsular is supposed to have been at? Or maybe it was transiting between two flight levels and got very unlucky?

There have been far more mid-air collisions involving airliners than shootdowns, and several have involved aircraft flying outside controlled airspace. I'm not sure of the status of the airspace that MH370 was flying in, but it's likely to be fairly open airspace in which anyone can fly. There are many aircraft that can fly at that kind of altitude, and (for example) major-league drugs smugglers do use executive jets to move their products quickly and secretly, and will take great care not to inform air traffic control where they are or where they're going. I don't know whether there is a lot of drugs traffic in that area, but I'm pretty sure that the possibility is being investigated.

You may recall the event in Brazil in 2006 in which an executive jet collided with a 737, which crashed killing all on board. The executive jet landed safely.

Yeah, I was putting myself into the mind of the hypothetical smuggler and thought that avoiding levels that other aircraft were using would improve my chances of delivering the cargo.

[Ningishzidda]

It will turn up safe and sound in a few years, flying toward Beijing.

The two passengers with stolen passports will say “This is what we can do. You will do as we command. Do not disobey us.”

The crew and  other passengers will be totally unaware of what happened.

[Regulator]

A 777 isn't a Cessna Cub, you cant land it in a field you need about a mile of nice smooth tarmac or concrete to set one down on.
Plus they had nowhere near enough fuel to make it anywhere near a western country.

Yes, but they might have THOUGHT you could.

I'll be keeping my eyes peeled in Lincolnshire anyway.

 

No.

If a Malaysian national wanted to claim asylum in UK (and why would they?), they could get on a plane to London. Malaysia is not Soviet-era Russia.

Err...yeah, but then they would have had to go through security and might be sent back.
This way they just blend in, get a job in a car wash, and if the authorities come they just pretend they've lost their passport.

Eh?

[Ningishzidda]

According to the BBC, amongst the passengers were a Doctor of Geophysics, 20 above average intelligence Engineers from a semiconductor company, an employee of IBM, a group of talented Artists and the remainder are healthy individuals from a selection of haplotypes.

Just right for restarting a civilisation.

[fuzzy]

Not the B Ark then?

[Euan Uzami]

A 777 isn't a Cessna Cub, you cant land it in a field you need about a mile of nice smooth tarmac or concrete to set one down on.
Plus they had nowhere near enough fuel to make it anywhere near a western country.

Yes, but they might have THOUGHT you could.

I'll be keeping my eyes peeled in Lincolnshire anyway.

 

No.

If a Malaysian national wanted to claim asylum in UK (and why would they?), they could get on a plane to London. Malaysia is not Soviet-era Russia.

Err...yeah, but then they would have had to go through security and might be sent back.
This way they just blend in, get a job in a car wash, and if the authorities come they just pretend they've lost their passport.

Eh?

As in,  like getting into the back of a lorry but a bit more comfortable and quicker.

[andygates]

Apart from the whole crashing into the sea out of fuel and dying part.  Anyway, the plane wasn't out of fuel so it wasn't demented asylum seekers trying to cross the globe on one tank just so they could annoy UKIP.

[Euan Uzami]

Apart from the whole crashing into the sea out of fuel and dying part.  Anyway, the plane wasn't out of fuel so it wasn't demented asylum seekers trying to cross the globe on one tank just so they could annoy UKIP.

Oh I don't know they might have been intending to land half way in Kazakhstan somewhere. They might already have done!
In fact Kazakhstan would be an ideal stop off to be honest, it's big and most areas probably pretty remote (lots of nice flat fields) and it's pretty much exactly half way.
They might be taking off again as we speak, having stretched their legs, refuelled, and had a spot  of lunch. Probably badger sandwich, or whatever they eat over there

[Vince]

Apparently the engines were still chatting with Rolls Royce in Derby 5 hours after the plane disappeared.

[TimC]

That claim (by the USA) has been denied by Rolls Royce and by the airline - the last engine download was at 01:07, 30 minutes before the plane disappeared.

[spesh]

Apparently the engines were still chatting with Rolls Royce in Derby 5 hours after the plane disappeared.

Source please, because there has been enough contradictory news in the mainstream media about the plane's presumed whereabouts, without bringing the telemetry into it!

The latest from Aviation Week magazine's website:

Malaysian Airlines said today reports that the missing MH370’s Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) sent transmissions for several hours after the 777-200 flight vanished from radar are false.

“Engine data transmission reports are inaccurate,” Malaysian Minister of Defense & (Acting) Minister of Transport Hishammuddin Hussein said at a press conference. “Both Boeing and Rolls-Royce have told us they did not get any ACARS transmissions after 1:07 a.m. last Saturday.”

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/awx_03_13_2014_p0-672117.xml

See also: http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/authorities-dismiss-mh370-engine-data-reports-396966/

 

ETA - x-post with TimC

[PeteB99]

Latest theory seems to be that although telemetery wasn't received by RR and airline (out of range of a receiver) the aircraft kept trying to send it and these attempts were picked by American satellites for about 4 hours after other contact was lost.

[Vince]

Apparently the engines were still chatting with Rolls Royce in Derby 5 hours after the plane disappeared.

Source please, because there has been enough contradictory news in the mainstream media about the plane's presumed whereabouts, without bringing the telemetry into it!
<snip>

It was on the BBC News. Quite possibly out of date.

[spesh]

Apparently the engines were still chatting with Rolls Royce in Derby 5 hours after the plane disappeared.

Source please, because there has been enough contradictory news in the mainstream media about the plane's presumed whereabouts, without bringing the telemetry into it!
<snip>

It was on the BBC News. Quite possibly out of date.

And the BBC are citing the Wall Street Journal as the media outlet which ran with the story being denied by the Malaysian, Boeing and RR. From what I've seen of commentary on the WSJ's standards of journalism elsewhere on t'web, you'll get more accuracy from the Onion, the Daily Mash and the National Enquirer.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26559627

[spesh]

That said, the WSJ corrected their earlier story, so now it's claimed that satellites picked up "pings" from the aircraft, as per PeteB99's post.

linky

Corrections & Amplifications
U.S. investigators suspect Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 flew for hours past the time it reached its last confirmed location, based on an analysis of signals sent through the plane's satellite-communication link designed to automatically transmit the status of onboard systems, according to people familiar with the matter. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said investigators based their suspicions on signals from monitoring systems embedded in the plane's Rolls-Royce PLC engines and described that process."

Reuters are reporting on the "pings" theory as follows:

Satellites picked up faint electronic pulses from Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 after it went missing on Saturday, but the signals gave no information about where the stray jet was heading and little else about its fate, two sources close to the investigation said on Thursday.

But the "pings" indicated that the aircraft's maintenance troubleshooting systems were switched on and ready to communicate with satellites, showing the aircraft, with 239 people on board, was at least capable of communicating after the jet lost touch with Malaysian air traffic controllers.

The system transmits such pings about once an hour, according to the sources, who said five or six were heard. However, the pings alone are not proof that the plane was in the air or on the ground, the sources said.

An international search is under way over a vast area in the Gulf of Thailand, the Andaman Sea and on both sides of the Malay Peninsula. The United States, which has sent ships and planes, said the area may be expanding into the Indian Ocean.

"It's my understanding that based on some new information that's not necessarily conclusive - but new information - an additional search area may be opened in the Indian Ocean," White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters in Washington.

<snip>

LITTLE FRESH LIGHT

The new information shed little light on the mystery of what happened to the plane, whether there was a technical failure, a hijacking or another kind of incident on board after it took off from Kuala Lumpur en route to Beijing.

While the troubleshooting systems were functioning, no data links were opened, the sources said, because the companies involved had not subscribed to that level of service from the satellite operator, the sources said.

Boeing Co, which made the missing 777 airliner, and Rolls-Royce, which supplied its Trent engines, declined to comment.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/13/us-malaysiaairlines-flight-idUSBREA2701720140313

Though given the SOP for this affair seems to be, as tweeted by Angus Walker, ITN's former China correspondent:

MH370 coverage goes like this 1) Europe/ US evenings - latest rumours/breaking lines 2) Asian pm - those rumours denied 3) repeat daily

What odds would you lay on a debunking or denial of the satellite theory tomorrow? 

[spesh]

On the subject of theories in a factual void, the New York Times has a good piece:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/13/world/asia/online-and-onscreen-disappeared-malaysian-flight-draws-intense-speculation.html?ref=asia

They also have an interesting article on why Malaysia's response has appeared to be... haphazard in comparison to other nations faced with an incident like this:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/13/world/asia/missing-jet-exposes-a-dysfunctional-malaysian-elite.html?hp&_r=1

[TimC]

They have been caught out without a properly developed process for dealing with this sort of thing. Though aircraft losses are rare, airlines (and governments) normally have pretty robust PR departments with procedures for dealing with uncomfortable situations. That seems to have been missing here. It also appears that no-one picked up the job of coordinating and controlling the search, nor of being a centralised point of information. Thus we have rumour and speculation going crazy, and seemingly random searches by disparate countries and organisations.

I'm sure that by now most of these things have been or are being addressed, but it's been a demonstration of how not to do it! However, the complete disappearance of an aircraft is not an easy thing to deal with so I think we can cut the Malaysians some slack.

[Regulator]

A 777 isn't a Cessna Cub, you cant land it in a field you need about a mile of nice smooth tarmac or concrete to set one down on.
Plus they had nowhere near enough fuel to make it anywhere near a western country.

Yes, but they might have THOUGHT you could.

I'll be keeping my eyes peeled in Lincolnshire anyway.

 

No.

If a Malaysian national wanted to claim asylum in UK (and why would they?), they could get on a plane to London. Malaysia is not Soviet-era Russia.

Err...yeah, but then they would have had to go through security and might be sent back.
This way they just blend in, get a job in a car wash, and if the authorities come they just pretend they've lost their passport.

Eh?

As in,  like getting into the back of a lorry but a bit more comfortable and quicker.

How many Malaysians do you think are trying to get into the UK to get a job in a car wash?

[Ningishzidda]

A New Zealander oil rig worker reported ( 500 km away ) he saw a ‘fireball’ in the sky.

If there was not a missing aeroplane, this would have been reported as an ‘Orange Orb’, common sighting.

[Ningishzidda]

Not the B Ark then?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26503469

A likely crowd of people to colonise a 'New Earth'.

No war, no money, no hunger.

I'm jealous.

[TimC]

Wall Street Journal are sticking to the story of continued data transmission which locate the aircraft in the Andaman Sea. The US are moving a warship to the area, and have given the Indian authorities directions on where to search. The plot thickens.

[mrcharly-YHT]

The story of the pings doesn't necessarily contradict what RR have said. The airline hadn't signed up to the RR monitoring service, so their servers wouldn't be recording signals. But the engine transponders still sent a request for contact - and the 'merkins are saying that their WorldOverlord satellites picked that up.