What is the scope for improvements in CoP/SPF over time? If it's just tweaking motor and compressor efficiency, probably not much? I was always rubbish at thermodynamics at university, and refrigeration/HVAC wasn't covered anyway.
There is a Carnot cycle formula for maximum efficiency, which is indoor temp/(temp difference) but that's about as useful as an ideal Otto cycle, giving CoP of over 11 for 21oC indoors and -5oC outdoors. So where are the biggest losses? Is it in the phase changes? Do different refrigerants make much difference?
It's a bit naughty to quote heat pumps as 300% efficient if CoP is 3; they're really under 30% efficient compared to the ideal cycle.