Author Topic: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?  (Read 37071 times)

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #25 on: 09 January, 2023, 10:47:52 am »
Indeed, the 84hr start feels very low key compared to the 90hr start, until later in the event when you are passing 90hr starters. HK much prefers that small event feel while I like the fuss and drama of the 90hr (not done an 80hr start yet). Of course, slower riders self-select away from the 84hr starts.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #26 on: 09 January, 2023, 04:59:02 pm »
I did 84 last time I rode and wouldn't do it again.  Many of the control staff were clearly exhausted and several controls had run out of food.  Early 90-hour was good in many ways but I do remember it as a 'dark ride' - lots of nighttime riding.  If riding solo again I'd do the 80 hour.   

Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #27 on: 09 January, 2023, 05:48:20 pm »
Lots of night riding isn’t so bad if you don’t deal with the heat well.  It’s what I did on PBP 15.  Sleeping during the peak heat of the day and riding at night.

Wycombewheeler

  • PBP-2019 LEL-2022
Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #28 on: 10 January, 2023, 11:30:10 am »
Lots of night riding isn’t so bad if you don’t deal with the heat well.  It’s what I did on PBP 15.  Sleeping during the peak heat of the day and riding at night.
My garmin log from 2019 has a minimum night time temperature of 6C, and a maximum daytime temperature of 25C (It felt warmer than that on the wednesday afternoon) I'd prefer 25C to 6C any time.

It's also an approach for those with dynamos

Eddington  127miles, 170km

Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #29 on: 10 January, 2023, 01:03:54 pm »
Lots of night riding isn’t so bad if you don’t deal with the heat well.  It’s what I did on PBP 15.  Sleeping during the peak heat of the day and riding at night.

I have sometimes done daytime naps to dodge heat in Italy or the Balkans, and was surprised more people didn't do it on LEL 2013, but my main temperature memory of 2015 was it being really cold on the Tuesday morning - down to about 3 degrees leaving Loudeac. But conditions can vary quite a bit if you are further up the road. 

Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #30 on: 10 January, 2023, 01:14:59 pm »
If there are any inquisitive first-timers reading this, then particular focus should be paid to being adequately prepared for the late evening/night time/early morning temperature roughly between Loudeac and Carhaix on the outward leg, between Carhaix and St. Meen le Grand on the homeward leg, and in the Perche region.....(apart from 2007 when it was 14 degrees day and night), these stretches have always been much colder than anticipated when riding at night or early morning.

In 2003, the event took place at the tail end of a heatwave, with daytime temperatures in excess of 32 degrees Celsius. At night, the temperature plummeted, a real shock to the system, with a morale crushing effect. There was a hoar frost in the countryside leaving Loudeac on the way back.

In 2019, my Garmin registered an average of 6 degrees for the 80 kms leg between Loudeac and Carhaix, with a low reading of 4 degrees, it felt colder on the descents. On the homeward section the average was 7 degrees for 100 kms from Carhaix to St. Meen, with a low of 5 degrees. After Mortagne, the mercury dropped to 6 degrees for 20/30 kms. It always feels colder though.

As mentioned above, the daytime temps were easily around 25 degrees.

When the body and mind are tired and sleep deprived, these fluctuations can have a dramatic effect on mood and resolve, so my tip is, at the very least, to take a lightweight/packable gilet with some thermal quality to counteract the adverse physical and mental effects of the cold.



#makewattsnotwar

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #31 on: 10 January, 2023, 02:15:36 pm »
Some of this information is worthwhile but perhaps it should be in a different thread that isn't discussing the likelihood of getting a PBP entry (I am as bad an offender as anybody on this thread).
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #32 on: 14 January, 2023, 11:34:30 pm »

Pre-registrations will be open on 14/01/2023 at noon (Paris time)[for those with 1000km+ BRMs or LRMs, and then every fortnight (600, 400, 300, 200 last on 11 Mar)] with overall 2500 starts reserved for 'French nationals'.
Start date Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00    1250
20/08    90h00    4800
21/08    84h00    1550

The ACP over the past years tried to persuade people to start in the 84 hour group.
On saturday, Faburel stated quite clearly that he expects that everyone who qualifies can start but that those who didn't pre-qualify run the chance of missing their prefered starting slot.
I understand this as if you haven't pre-qualified, then there's a chance that you won't get a 90h starting spot but have to do with 84h.

After 12 hours there has been 1,779 registrations in total. While ACP might want to encourage people into the 84h group this is not proving popular with the punters so far, with 23% of the total places taken the 80h limit is at 25% taken, 90h 26% but 84h only 13% (all numbers based on the lower 7,600 places at the start of pre-registrations). Previously as pre-registrations have got into the shorter "longest rides" the preference for 90h increases. In 2019 ACP moved some hundreds of unused places from 84h into the 90h limit group during the pre-registration period and eventually the 84h group was 13.7% of the total fully registered riders.

Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #33 on: 18 January, 2023, 04:40:25 pm »
Latest figures seem to be:

Initial "capacity"RemainingTaken% Taken
80hr125088736329.0
90hr48003200190033.3
84hr1550131623415.1
Overall76005403219728.0

Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #34 on: 21 January, 2023, 12:19:46 am »
Looks like some admin / cleaning up of partial / duplicate / failed / unpaid pre-registrations done in the first week as the "available" has gone up by 42 places in the last 12 hours. French non-FFCT get a go from Saturday (noon?)

Currently

Date    Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00            885
20/08    90h00          3209
21/08    84h00          1311

(was 877 / 3173 / 1310 12 hours ago)

Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #35 on: 27 January, 2023, 12:44:53 pm »
Looks like some admin / cleaning up of partial / duplicate / failed / unpaid pre-registrations done in the first week as the "available" has gone up by 42 places in the last 12 hours. French non-FFCT get a go from Saturday (noon?)

Currently

Date    Time limit    Remaining places
20/08    80h00            885
20/08    90h00          3209
21/08    84h00          1311

(was 877 / 3173 / 1310 12 hours ago)
600 in 2022 opportunity to pre-register opens in 22 hours. About 100 more have pre-registered in the last 7 days.

Date    Time limit Remaining places
20/08    80h00    859
20/08    90h00    3138
21/08    84h00    1296

CrazyEnglishTriathlete

  • Miles eaten don't satisfy hunger
  • Chartered accountant in 5 different decades
    • CET Ride Reports and Blogs
Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #36 on: 27 January, 2023, 06:23:21 pm »
I rode 90hr in 2007 and 80hr in 2011, 2015.  Although I am slower now than in 2015 will still aim for the 80hr for the following reasons:

1) riders seemed to be much better at riding in formation and so the passage as far as Villaines was much easier.
2) staff at controls are fresh and the queues are manageable so I don't have to go hunting for food
3) earlier start time - I really don't like late evening starts as my dead time (11 - 3) comes too early in the ride) and it means I can make Brest on the Monday night, which I can't do with the 90-hour start times.

As for places, if it's sold out, I still have a week's pass for late August so will just do something nice on my tod instead.
Eddington Numbers 130 (imperial), 183 (metric) 574 (furlongs)  116 (nautical miles)

Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #37 on: 28 January, 2023, 03:09:34 pm »

600 in 2022 opportunity to pre-register opens in 22 hours. About 100 more have pre-registered in the last 7 days.

Date    Time limit Remaining places
20/08    80h00    859
20/08    90h00    3138
21/08    84h00    1296

Four hours after it opened for the people with a 600 the website has settled down a little. Now showing

Date    Time limit Remaining places
20/08    80h00    638
20/08    90h00    1959
21/08    84h00    1144

So still 3741 places left. Earliest available 90 hour start is now 19:15.

CrazyEnglishTriathlete

  • Miles eaten don't satisfy hunger
  • Chartered accountant in 5 different decades
    • CET Ride Reports and Blogs
Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #38 on: 28 January, 2023, 09:06:44 pm »
I just got my preferred slot at the back of the vedettes, the A and B groups were showing as 0 available but I think they are reserved for particularly fast riders. 
Eddington Numbers 130 (imperial), 183 (metric) 574 (furlongs)  116 (nautical miles)

phil dubya

  • It's a fast bike, but the engine's knackered.
Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #39 on: 28 January, 2023, 10:48:07 pm »
As it stands nearly over 3300 entries still available.

20/08   80h00   572
20/08   90h00   1697
21/08   84h00   1106

I think if you Audaxed in 2022 on a qualifying ride of 300km+ then you'll probably be ok.  As mentioned above, if you don't get in initially you will by August.  I've not checked any historic data, but I think LEL riders who got in early due to the 2022 delay, would have otherwise ridden a 600k anyway, so it's likely to have settled down now.


frillipippi

  • from Italy
Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #40 on: 28 January, 2023, 11:55:44 pm »
I just got my preferred slot at the back of the vedettes, the A and B groups were showing as 0 available but I think they are reserved for particularly fast riders.
Two weeks ago groups A and B were available, they must have filled up in the meanwhile.

Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #41 on: 29 January, 2023, 12:22:00 am »
As it stands nearly over 3300 entries still available.

...... so it's likely to have settled down now.

Pre-registrations for 2023 are currently running a few hundred ahead of the same point in 2019.

There are a few factors that will determine where we end up.

1. While all the announcements have referenced a total of 8000 places with a quota for French of 2500 (ie rest 5500) the actual "available" at the start of pre-registration only added up to 7600 so someone has 400 places up their jersey sleeve to distribute somewhere.
2. The organisers want to spread the bulge by encouraging riders into the 84h group but this is again still not very popular so far, after 12 hours of the 600 group pre-reg there is 56% of total places taken with 54% of the 80h limit taken, 65% of 90h but only 29% of 84h. In previous years 84h places have been reallocated to 90h during the pre-reg but will this happen again, if not then slower riders may have to take 84h places as the 90h places will likely fill up first.
3. The "French" quota may come into play, in 2019 only 24% of final registered riders were French (1573 of 6673) and ACP are aiming for at least 31% in 2023 (2500 of 8000) but early indications seem to be lower. On Monday 16/01 Elisabeth Lavaill (an ACP ride organiser so perhaps knowledgeable as to the numbers) reassured ACP FB readers that "there were still over 2200 places available for French riders") , this at a time when there were about 2000 pre-reg in total so say 300 French equals only 15% (but pure speculation from one data point!)

Still a way to go, still no 2022 BRM numbers so no guide from there (there were 2800 LRM compared with 1600 in 2018). Keep riding.

frillipippi

  • from Italy
Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #42 on: 29 January, 2023, 08:25:06 am »
As it stands nearly over 3300 entries still available.

...... so it's likely to have settled down now.

Pre-registrations for 2023 are currently running a few hundred ahead of the same point in 2019.

There are a few factors that will determine where we end up.

1. While all the announcements have referenced a total of 8000 places with a quota for French of 2500 (ie rest 5500) the actual "available" at the start of pre-registration only added up to 7600 so someone has 400 places up their jersey sleeve to distribute somewhere.
2. The organisers want to spread the bulge by encouraging riders into the 84h group but this is again still not very popular so far, after 12 hours of the 600 group pre-reg there is 56% of total places taken with 54% of the 80h limit taken, 65% of 90h but only 29% of 84h. In previous years 84h places have been reallocated to 90h during the pre-reg but will this happen again, if not then slower riders may have to take 84h places as the 90h places will likely fill up first.
3. The "French" quota may come into play, in 2019 only 24% of final registered riders were French (1573 of 6673) and ACP are aiming for at least 31% in 2023 (2500 of 8000) but early indications seem to be lower. On Monday 16/01 Elisabeth Lavaill (an ACP ride organiser so perhaps knowledgeable as to the numbers) reassured ACP FB readers that "there were still over 2200 places available for French riders") , this at a time when there were about 2000 pre-reg in total so say 300 French equals only 15% (but pure speculation from one data point!)

Still a way to go, still no 2022 BRM numbers so no guide from there (there were 2800 LRM compared with 1600 in 2018). Keep riding.

2. I loved 84h in 2015, but 5AM to 6AM is very early, I'd say too early, especially keeping into account that 2.1) Rambouillet hotels etc. haven't got enough beds for all of us and our accompanying families and 2.2) trains from Paris Montparnasse don't run so early in the morning. Maybe from Chartres, but it's not easy to make your family wait for you in Chartres when the name of the event is Paris-Brest-Paris. Many threads in YACF talk about the fact that the starting place of a well organised brevet should be easily reached without a car, I won't say anything more here.

3. You can find some interesting numbers here: www.paris-brest-paris.org/la-premiere-vague-des-pre-inscriptions-quelques-chiffres   It looks like French riders are taking the pre-inscription more easily than foreigners. It's understandable: the farther you come from, the earlier you start organizing your trip and holiday.

Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #43 on: 29 January, 2023, 10:01:17 am »
There's a hug campsite in Rambouillet with lot's of luxury options, as cabins and safari tents. Why focus on hotels?

Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #44 on: 29 January, 2023, 11:16:31 am »
There's a hug campsite in Rambouillet with lot's of luxury options, as cabins and safari tents. Why focus on hotels?
Off topic for an 'odds' thread, but Huggopia options which most non-riding familes might consider 'luxury'  are fully booked, @Ivo. Or are you "focusing" on another campsite? My family enjoyed using our cabane last time, while I/we were 'en route'. YFMV

Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #45 on: 29 January, 2023, 01:08:29 pm »
Just booked large tent with electric hook up at Huttopia Rambouillet  17 Aug to 26 Aug

frillipippi

  • from Italy
Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #46 on: 29 January, 2023, 03:27:00 pm »
There's a hug campsite in Rambouillet with lot's of luxury options, as cabins and safari tents. Why focus on hotels?
I wasn't focusing on hotels: I wrote "hotels etc." where the etc. was meant to include other forms of accomodation.
Anyway you're right, Ivo, in the sense that there's more than just accomodation: the demand for an 84h start time compatible with public transport from Paris doesn't arise from an accomodation issue only - if any, I grant you - but more generally from the fact that accompanying families find Paris more attractive than Rambouillet: Louvre vs Bergerie Nationale or whatever the main attraction of Rambouillet is.
My opinion is that in order to make 84h groups more attractive, PBP organization should either find a way to have some special train leaving from Paris Montparnasse early enough, or adjust the start time to consider train timetables. Where I live the second option would be way more reasonable than the first; I don't know if in France things would be very different. So, in the current situation, no wonder that 84h slots remain almost empty.

CrazyEnglishTriathlete

  • Miles eaten don't satisfy hunger
  • Chartered accountant in 5 different decades
    • CET Ride Reports and Blogs
Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #47 on: 29 January, 2023, 05:50:34 pm »
Most of the people that I have met that have tried the 84h have found it harder than they thought - the start time (plus the need to be at the start somewhat earlier than for a low key Audax event) means that they start with a short/disturbed night of sleep.  They then have to ride through the tail and into the bulge of the 90-hour riders, which means they get the worst of the controls.  I thought about it briefly the last two times, but reckoned if I was fast enough to get round the 84h, I'd probably be able to make the 80h.
Eddington Numbers 130 (imperial), 183 (metric) 574 (furlongs)  116 (nautical miles)

CrazyEnglishTriathlete

  • Miles eaten don't satisfy hunger
  • Chartered accountant in 5 different decades
    • CET Ride Reports and Blogs
Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #48 on: 29 January, 2023, 05:55:47 pm »
As for accommodation, have booked a hotel in Maintenon - which is 20 mins from Chartres and 1 hour from Orleans - which are easier places for Mrs CET to visit than Paris, if she does decided to accompany me.  It's 22km from the start, which won't be a problem going in - a gentle warm up, but is on a tramline to Rambouillet if the legs don't fancy it after the finish.
Eddington Numbers 130 (imperial), 183 (metric) 574 (furlongs)  116 (nautical miles)

Re: Pbp 2023 - what are the odds?
« Reply #49 on: 29 January, 2023, 06:46:40 pm »
There's a hug campsite in Rambouillet with lot's of luxury options, as cabins and safari tents. Why focus on hotels?
Off topic for an 'odds' thread, but Huggopia options which most non-riding familes might consider 'luxury'  are fully booked, @Ivo. Or are you "focusing" on another campsite? My family enjoyed using our cabane last time, while I/we were 'en route'. YFMV

I booked the cabane in november, then there was still plenty of space.