Starting to get sensible numbers out of the predictive model I'm using. So long as I assume that I am burning 60% of the calories suggested by the usual estimates for cycling, the model quite accurately predicts my weight loss. To make the calorie tracking software I'm using help me along those lines, I've had to set a net calorie goal of 600kcal on the days I commute. However, my model suggests that I'm only really running at a 500kcal daily deficit, and this fits my (lack of) hunger and weight loss data. I'm basically doing 60km a day during the week*, aiming to eat ~2300kcal a day including at the weekend.
For me, those "well done, you've burnt 1500kcal" messages are a hindrance. Telling myself "No I can't have an extra helping of toffee apple pie and vanilla crunch ice cream" is not made easier by them.
*my BMR is quite low, and my lifestyle is utterly sedentry other than cycling