Author Topic: [HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?  (Read 254447 times)

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1000 on: 25 December, 2015, 06:57:41 pm »
A fascinating read and a truly remarkable endeavour, having followed this from January I have been surprised by the emotional 'rollercoaster' it has taken me on. From something I considered mildly interesting, through OMG when Steve was hit by the moped, to my latest serious concerns for his mental/physical wellbeing. It's been a heck of a ride and that's from a comfy chair behind a screen.

In the beginning I was fully behind Steve, quite anti Kurt and, beyond an understanding that it was a task way beyond me, totally clueless. In a sense I bought into the Steve hype, the romanticism of his approach and the individualism that underpinned it. I now think that I was just listening to heart over mind, the numbers aren't hard to run and his speed averages always nagged at me. Whereas Kurt has grown on me, partly the underdog aspect as he seemed so ill prepared. But he has adapted rapidly, overcome hurdles and I suspect his style of approach will be the template others look to in the future.

For me this was always primarily a mental challenge and I believed that was where Steve held the edge. I now worry that the very mental strength I considered his ace up the sleeve could now cause him harm.
Nuns, no sense of humour

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1001 on: 25 December, 2015, 09:41:11 pm »
Quote from: Day 140...

From FaceBook

Here is a Christmas message and progress update from Steve Abraham - to all of you who've supported him through the year:

"As you are all probably aware, I have had a heavy loss of miles over the last 6 weeks or so.

That is down to a number of reasons.

Adaption to my new diet was very tough, but has all gone pretty much as expected.

My diet plan was modified so that I could take a few short cuts and also to account for my cycling demands. In theory I should not have been exercising for my first 2 weeks of adaption, which is why I lost so much weight.

 My weight has been stable since my first week of adaption. My team and I took on the new diet for several reasons.

*Safeguarding my health so that I can keep going.

*Improving my performance (though that was not the main reason, it is a likelihood, even if only through speeding up my recovery, which I believe it could be doing).

*Practical reasons.

I was eating on the move during late summer and early autumn to save time. However, it wasn't working all that well because of the sheer volume of food I eat. It still takes time to prepare food to eat on the move and this was taking longer as the weather grew colder.

I could forsee spending as much time not moving as I did last winter. Once my new diet is in full flight I think I may be able to spend less time stopped in winter than I did last year, though this remains to be seen.

My new diet is well under way but not quite up to speed yet. I initially needed 4 big feeds a day and now only need 3.

Next step is to space out those feeds and I should also not need to eat as much for each feed, which will save even more time.

While my adaption was going on, there was also a lot of bad weather. Bad enough that trucks and busses were literally blown off the road!

My team and I anticipated the losses of Adaption for my new diet to be between 700-1000 miles. It was more like 1040, so considering the bad weather I would say we were pretty much spot on.

The next problem was my getting my stomach trouble, which hit the miles very hard. I never felt especially bad, except for one weekend, it just took it out of me as well as caused practical delays from toilet stops.

Tests were done at a private clinic and things seem to be on the up. Some results from my tests at the clinic are indicating that the new diet is improving my health and is working. I have felt much better in the last two days - and feel stronger.

I have been preparing myself for the tough winter ahead since September and now that my new diet is beginning to work and my tummy trouble seems to be going away, feel ready to take on winter with gusto.
 
With very nearly a year done I feel as if I have had a good warm up and ready to go. Thanks to my team for all of your hard work - and I include those who are no longer in the team.

I couldn't have done what I have without your help and support and I will never forget all that you have put in to help me even get started as well as keeping me going.

Also many thanks to the many people who have helped along the way by helping me get started as well as volunteering to help.

I also thank everyone who enjoys watching my progress and those who come out to cheer me along on the road.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all - and hope to see you on the road sometime next year.

Steve Abraham"


Wonderful post.   I hope some of you naysayers will read this and begin to understand.   Somehow I doubt it.

Roll on Steve.  :thumbsup:

LMT

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1002 on: 25 December, 2015, 10:01:18 pm »
Understand what exactly? Steve makes many points.

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1003 on: 25 December, 2015, 10:50:43 pm »
Steve is currently about 1800 miles behind Godwin's record. With 225 days left in his second attempt, Steve needs to exceed the 206 mile average daily distance by about 8 miles to match Tommy. Pretty much 214 miles need to be ridden every single day from now on.

Kurt looks likely to add about 1200 miles to Tommy's record. To match Kurt, Steve would need about 13 miles daily beyond Tommy's average. That is perilously close to averaging 220 miles every single day till the second attempt finishes.

Steve was barely able to consistently exceed 220 miles days at the height of Summer. He is currently dropping 1-2 Godwins a week and Winter hasn't started yet (flowers are blooming!). Assuming no more than 10 hours (total) a day off the bike to sleep, shower and shit (and fill water bottles, dress, eat, etc), Steve needs to average 15.7 mph (25.3 km/h) just to reach 220 miles, let alone exceed it.

Check the numbers, they were done on the back of a fag packet. By my reckoning, Steve needs to be riding noticeably faster through the whole day AND spending more time on the bike than he has been averaging. While both should improve, I can't see them changing enough to let Steve take the record.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

LMT

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1004 on: 25 December, 2015, 11:06:09 pm »
Steve is currently about 1800 miles behind Godwin's record. With 225 days left in his second attempt, Steve needs to exceed the 206 mile average daily distance by about 8 miles to match Tommy. Pretty much 214 miles need to be ridden every single day from now on.

Kurt looks likely to add about 1200 miles to Tommy's record. To match Kurt, Steve would need about 13 miles daily beyond Tommy's average. That is perilously close to averaging 220 miles every single day till the second attempt finishes.

Steve was barely able to consistently exceed 220 miles days at the height of Summer. He is currently dropping 1-2 Godwins a week and winter hasn't started yet (flowers are blooming!). Assuming no more than 10 hours (total) a day off the bike to sleep, shower and shit (and fill water bottles, dress, eat, etc), Steve needs to average 15.7 mph (25.3 km/h) just to reach 220 miles, let alone exceed it.

Check the numbers, they were done on the back of a fag packet. By my reckoning, Steve needs to be riding noticeably faster through the whole day AND spending more time on the bike than he has been averaging. While both should improve, I can't see them changing enough to let Steve take the record.

For arguments sake, let's say you're team chief and there was another crack at the record in the near future. What would you want, what would you change and how would you do it.

I don't dispute what you say, just curious as to what you would do and the changes you would make given that you say that Steve has the ability (which I don't doubt).

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1005 on: 26 December, 2015, 12:17:36 am »
Stop the second attempt at the end of the year, Steve to rest up and then train for speed through the rest of Winter at least. Once the numbers look good enough (relaxed flatland average around 19-20 mph), start a third attempt, probably in Spring. Use the down time to check out possible food and equipment changes and arrange the new support set up.

Alicia is the biggest advantage Kurt has had. She has kept him focused, studied the weather, sorted accommodation and so on. Every time Kurt has weakened mentally, she has adjusted the situation, arranged riding companions and brought him back on track. She has been (mostly) able to keep him riding, despite multiple efforts to destroy bikes.

Given that a fit Steve is almost as fast as Kurt, Steve needs to ride a little more time each day than Kurt does. Assume 7 hours sleep a night (can't afford any sleep deprivation) plus another 2 hours to shower, shit, dress and a sit down meal or 2. Allow up to another hour for traffic lights, pee stops, adding or stripping off clothes on the road, medical, etc. that leaves 14 hours each day that Steve can actually ride. If Steve had somebody to hand him up water and food without stopping or to hand him a rain jacket, warm clothing or a replacement bike, along with routes with minimal traffic lights/ stop signs and good use of tailwinds, that would allow him to achieve up to 250 miles in a day without losing sleep that kills distance the following day. RAAM riders brush their teeth while riding, not while they're stopped. Everything should be aimed at minimising the number of minutes that Steve is riding at less than 15 mph and ideally minimising time spent below 18 mph.

He should be eating solid food on the bike more and using things like Winter & Summer Training Fuels (developed for Hoppo's first RAAM) or other such drinks that suit his stomach to reduce the time spent stationary. Nuun is good hydration but not enough by itself.

Plugging into a headwind all day is counterproductive. No more than an hour at a time into the wind. If Steve wants to ride laps around a fixed base (Milton Keynes?), pay somebody to look after the home base - clean, prepare and hand up food and bottles, wash and periodically disinfect clothing. Home help on Steve's team (Lesley) has been wonderful but she has plenty of other demands on her time and that can't be ideal for Lesley or Steve. The bike maintenance aspect has mostly worked too. Currently Steve spends a lot of time stopped in Milton Keynes. How much of that is doing stuff that somebody else can do while he is on the bike?

Otherwise you are looking at a motorhome approach like Kurt or at least a motorised approach, to chase the combination of tailwinds and fast flat roads. If so, you want 1 or 2 people available every couple of hours whenever Steve is awake. That is a lot to ask of volunteers. Driving Steve upwind should occur EVERY time there is a consistent wind but daylight hours shouldn't be wasted in a vehicle. That pretty much means driving across the country in the evening while Steve eats/ sleeps, otherwise Steve runs out of England before the next day's ride finishes.

In contrast to Alicia and Kurt, Steve's team has discouraged anybody from riding with him. Steve is hard as nails mentally but riding with others not only helps instantaneous speed but maintains the rider's focus and enthusiasm. It also makes it easier to find out about little niggles (e,g, medical or equipment) and take steps to fix them early. That works best with traffic-free/ traffic-light laps of a flat circuit with a fast surface.

Steve's wheels, tyres and aero position are already pretty good. There aren't many gains to be made there. A lighter bike would help in the hills but the idea is avoid them completely anyway. There isn't much aero advantage from a different bike frame at less than 20 mph.

I think Steve carries too much stuff on the bike all the time, mostly because he doesn't count on anybody's support all day. If Steve has access to everything he could possibly need every 2 hours or less (just call), he doesn't need to carry it with him. That is a significant difference from his current approach.

Steve needs to do interviews only while he is riding, either by phone or with somebody on a bicycle or motorcycle beside him.

The team needs to be small but able to replace people during the attempt. A year is a long time for anybody to commit to supporting Steve and circumstances change. At least one person on the team should talk with Steve each day and should look for what he isn't saying, not just what he does say.

Steve's performance needs to be closely monitored and appropriate adjustments made without delay, otherwise deficits grow quickly. There should be daily or at least weekly updates on what is happening.

Just some thoughts late at night. There are a lot of possibilities to optimise this rough outline but basically it is an extension of how HK and I supported Steve through 3 x 24hr TTs, modified by HK's experience of fitting high annual mileage targets around life and work, which leads to a 'minimise wasted time' approach.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

Kim

  • Timelord
    • Fediverse
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1006 on: 26 December, 2015, 12:21:46 am »
I agree with all that, but am looking forward to being proved wrong by Steve and his team.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1007 on: 26 December, 2015, 06:53:50 am »
Check the numbers, they were done on the back of a fag packet. By my reckoning, Steve needs to be riding noticeably faster through the whole day AND spending more time on the bike than he has been averaging. While both should improve, I can't see them changing enough to let Steve take the record.

That depends on what record he is actually chasing at the moment... Besting Kurt is virtually impossible at this point, being first to 100k miles is not. I can think of no other sane reason for Steve to continue past Jan 1st.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1008 on: 26 December, 2015, 07:47:53 am »
Who would ratify the 100k mile record?

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1009 on: 26 December, 2015, 08:33:07 am »
^^^^ That is a good summary, LWAB. I agree with it all apart from potential aero gains. 

Aero does matter at Steve's speeds and his position, his bars and his head, are extremely high. He is leaving miles on the table by not getting more aero. Of course it's a trade-off between what is comfortable and what is fast, but, with the right stretching programme, improvements can be accommodated, and they can be made gradually, and backed off if need be.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1010 on: 26 December, 2015, 09:05:10 am »
^^^^ That is a good summary, LWAB. I agree with it all apart from potential aero gains. 

Aero does matter a Steve's speeds and his position, his bars and his head, are extremely high. He is leaving miles on the table by not getting more aero. Of course it's a trade-off between what is comfortable and what is fast, but, with the right stretching programme, improvements can be accommodated, and they can be made gradually, and backed off if need be.

Frank, it's not only stretching. When the years progress your body gets damaged, either through work or through sports. Don't forget that Steve didn't have an office job. Doing manual labour or labour where a lot of lifting is involved will inevitably damage your back or your shoulders. This will impair your ability to sit low on your bike. If you still do it, you're bound to get injuries. In this regard, Kurt has a major advantage, having done office work for most of the decades before his attempt.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1011 on: 26 December, 2015, 09:32:44 am »
Do you know that is the case?  I've never discussed with Steve why his position is so high and he may well have an old injury.  Even so, I'd be surprised if he couldn't improve on it with the right advice and adaptation programme.  In my experience, physios always go on about how bad it is for your back to sit at a computer all day. 


Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1012 on: 26 December, 2015, 09:38:26 am »
Do you know that is the case?  I've never discussed with Steve why his position is so high and he may well have an old injury.  Even so, I'd be surprised if he couldn't improve on it with the right advice and adaptation programme.  In my experience, physios always go on about how bad it is for your back to sit at a computer all day.

I don't know about Steve but I know my limitations regarding position due to 20 years of non computer work. Now I work with a computer during 2 years and I've had no new issues. I feel that my body is suffering less damaged due to the computer work as due to physical work. Even a good level physio (of one of the national speedskating teams) could offer not much help for my shoulder problem, about half the work force of my old work had shoulder issues.
I know that at my old work I never had to take a day off due to a sporting issue but several weeks in total due to work induced injuries.
Since I know that warehouse work usually involves a lot of reaching and lifting there should be some level of damage to Steve's body due to this. How big this level is I don't know.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1013 on: 26 December, 2015, 09:49:26 am »
Understand what exactly? Steve makes many points.

Exactly.   Steve makes many good points.

Understand then that there is proactive work going on in the background, that there is a plan.   Steve has strategically changed his diet to help with his shot at the record to increase his moving time over winter and the mileage 'shortfall' was expected, planned in, and therefore nothing for them to get overly exercised about.

Seems to me like Steve and the Team have it all in hand.   

As for what he should do about his bike or his riding position: I am sure that Steve and the team have that in hand too.   I recall that Steve spent a good deal of time getting the bike setup spot on for him before he set out on this quest. 

I'm sure that many will disagree of course...   

SoreTween

  • Most of me survived the Pennine Bridleway.
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1014 on: 26 December, 2015, 09:54:45 am »
I agree with Kim.

The part of LWABs post I would most like to see Steve adopt is company on the road. Were he to accept help from an experienced group of riders to knock out 250 every Saturday for example he could focus on matching Kurt's average the rest of the week.

What is the best flatwood park equivalent anywhere in the UK? 11km loop, among trees, very good traffic free surface and 4m climb per lap.
2023 targets: Survive. Maybe.
There is only one infinite resource in this universe; human stupidity.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1015 on: 26 December, 2015, 09:58:04 am »
As for what he should do about his bike or his riding position: I am sure that Steve and the team have that in hand too.   I recall that Steve spent a good deal of time getting the bike setup spot on for him before he set out on this quest. 

I'm sure that many will disagree of course...   

The point is that the ideal position for a year is different from the ideal position for a 24 which again is different as the ideal position for the track pursuit.
Many years ago when I was still doing silly things like 24 hour speedskating on a track I met Marnix ten Kortenaar during one of these 24 hour races. He advised me to sit deeper. I replied to him that this would be good for a 5k race but not for a 24 hour race. He nearly fell out of his skates but agreed that the ideal position would be different for each distance.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1016 on: 26 December, 2015, 10:04:04 am »
True; and the ideal position a year ago will be different from what it will be now, after having ridden 60,000 miles and got a year older!

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1017 on: 26 December, 2015, 10:06:38 am »
And what evidence do we have that Steve's riding position is not changing at all?

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1018 on: 26 December, 2015, 10:06:38 am »
As I said, a rough outline and very much subject to improvements. Tweaking Steve's position for aero advantage may fit in there.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1019 on: 26 December, 2015, 10:08:24 am »
A thoughtful summary by LWaB.  Personally I see another advantage Kurt has - when riding with a tailwind, he's no so often at risk of running out of land in his chosen direction. As our prevailing winds are south westerly, Steve (when riding form MK) regularly has to turn at Cromer. Not ideal, but a limitation of UK geography.
We are making a New World (Paul Nash, 1918)

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1020 on: 26 December, 2015, 10:08:51 am »
What is the best flatwood park equivalent anywhere in the UK? 11km loop, among trees, very good traffic free surface and 4m climb per lap.

Richmond Park?
Eddington Number = 132

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1021 on: 26 December, 2015, 10:13:30 am »
Too hilly
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

Karla

  • car(e) free
    • Lost Byway - around the world by bike
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1022 on: 26 December, 2015, 10:19:19 am »
ISTM that another advantage Kurt has is being able to put a few thousand miles of latitude between  his summer and winter riding bases.  Steve could do good mileage in the summer but the winter has slowed him down - which isn't a problem that Kurt has.  Renting a winter base in e.g. Spain and spending at least November-Feb down there would be a big gain IMO, and one I'd happily donate to support.

TimC

  • Old blerk sometimes onabike.
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1023 on: 26 December, 2015, 10:20:27 am »
Understand what exactly? Steve makes many points.

Exactly.   Steve makes many good points.

Understand then that there is proactive work going on in the background, that there is a plan.   Steve has strategically changed his diet to help with his shot at the record to increase his moving time over winter and the mileage 'shortfall' was expected, planned in, and therefore nothing for them to get overly exercised about.

Seems to me like Steve and the Team have it all in hand.   

As for what he should do about his bike or his riding position: I am sure that Steve and the team have that in hand too.   I recall that Steve spent a good deal of time getting the bike setup spot on for him before he set out on this quest. 

I'm sure that many will disagree of course...   

Yes, me for one. If this is an attempt where everything is going to plan and is all in hand, I'd hate to see what you'd regard as one that is falling apart!

Don't get me wrong, Steve has achieved amazing things and I am full of admiration for his determination, guts (no, that's not ironic!), and persistence. But 'planning' to lose 1000 miles when you're already struggling to make the average daily distance required seems, at the least, a little odd. I appreciate that Steve's diet needed attention, for reasons that aren't entirely clear but may be guessed at, but this seems a very expensive way to go about it.

I think many of us commenting here are seeing some parallels with Miles' attempts, in that the daily mileage achieved is short of what's needed but the participant and their closest allies are insisting that everything's ok. It's patently not ok, and those of us who are wishing it was ok and would like to see it returning to being ok aren't seeing how it's going to become ok - and every day that the mileage falls short increases the mileage required and the doubts that it can be achieved.

None of that is a personal comment on Steve; it's observation coupled with some rational extrapolation based on what Steve has demonstrated over the last year that he can achieve. The evidence suggests that a successful conclusion is now unlikely, and that therefore - if the target is the HAM'R (or at least Godwin's 75000 miles) - something else needs to change. If we had seen Steve regularly and consistently put down repeated 220-mile days at some point in the year, and could see a rapid return to that form coming back, then we could remain confident in his ability to pull this back - not to mention wondering in awe what 'could have been', had he not suffered the setbacks he has. But he hasn't done that. Steve's best run has seen him at or around daily Godwins, and therefore, even if the diet and the weather allow him to return to that best demonstrated form, the record is out of reach.

That is why I agree with the sentiments expressed above by Kim and others that this attempt should end on December 31st, a great deal of pride and satisfaction taken in what has been achieved under very trying circumstances, and a return to the drawing-board to plan (if he can face it) a fresh attempt in 2017 taking all this accumulated experience into account.

Wowbagger

  • Stout dipper
    • Stuff mostly about weather
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #1024 on: 26 December, 2015, 10:37:37 am »
That's the point. It's not a binary position. It is perfectly possible be very supportive of Steve but also aware that things aren't going according to plan.
Quote from: Dez
It doesn’t matter where you start. Just start.