Author Topic: Tour de France 2018  (Read 133794 times)

Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #750 on: 25 July, 2018, 10:12:00 am »
The team is more important than the ego of a single member. Something Nigel Mansell found out to his cost, but it did lead to him being the only person ever to achieve world champion status in both F1 and Indy Car. Apologies, I'll collect my anorak on my way out.

It'll be handed to you by Mario Andretti, who did it first.
And by Emerson Fittipaldi, who did it in between the two.  And by Jacques Villeneuve, who did it afterwards.
(Montoya got pretty close, too.)

Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #751 on: 25 July, 2018, 10:20:13 am »
It'll kick off today.

I have a hunch Sky might use Froome to launch attacks to wear out Dumoulin in order to preserve GT's lead. Something about Froome's body language during the last interview I saw tells me he's dejected.

It'll kick off today.

I have a hunch Sky might use Froome to launch attacks to wear out Dumoulin in order to preserve GT's lead. Something about Froome's body language during the last interview I saw tells me he's dejected.

With the bonus, for Froome, that if it works he might overhaul Thomas in the GC as well, or take out enough of a chunk that he can be overhauled in the TT.  If Froome gaps GT and TD, GT would have to be very strong/confident to try and close the gap without dragging TD as well. On past form Froome could leave it until the last 2 or 3km of today's final climb. On current form, who knows?  It certainly didn't work out that way for him on Alpe D'Huez.

Beardy

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Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #752 on: 25 July, 2018, 10:24:49 am »
The team is more important than the ego of a single member. Something Nigel Mansell found out to his cost, but it did lead to him being the only person ever to achieve world champion status in both F1 and Indy Car. Apologies, I'll collect my anorak on my way out.

It'll be handed to you by Mario Andretti, who did it first.
I didn’t kno that.

The team is more important than the ego of a single member. Something Nigel Mansell found out to his cost, but it did lead to him being the only person ever to achieve world champion status in both F1 and Indy Car. Apologies, I'll collect my anorak on my way out.


It'll be handed to you by Mario Andretti, who did it first.
And by Emerson Fittipaldi, who did it in between the two.  And by Jacques Villeneuve, who did it afterwards.
(Montoya got pretty close, too.)

Nor did I kno that.

Well, it seems I don’t kno much about the history of Indy Car world champions. Hey ho.  8)
For every complex problem in the world, there is a simple and easily understood solution that’s wrong.

mattc

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Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #753 on: 25 July, 2018, 10:33:32 am »
of course "Indy Car WORLD Champion" is an interesting concept.  #bloodyyanks
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Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #754 on: 25 July, 2018, 10:47:44 am »
They have in the past held Indycar races in Britain*, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Brazil, Argentina, Japan, Australia, Canuckistan and Transmuralia, so at least they're trying a bit harder than their pals in throwball and rounders.

* hence the "Indy circuit" moniker for the short circuit at Brands.
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Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #755 on: 25 July, 2018, 11:13:54 am »
They have in the past held Indycar races in Britain*, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Brazil, Argentina, Japan, Australia, Canuckistan and Transmuralia, so at least they're trying a bit harder than their pals in throwball and rounders.

* hence the "Indy circuit" moniker for the short circuit at Brands.
Veering further OT: wasn't there also a race at Silverstone way back when?

Transmuralia ROFL  ;D

Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #756 on: 25 July, 2018, 11:36:17 am »
Sky need to do something - if they do nothing, Dumoulin could win the TT and overtake Thomas and Froome for yellow.  Same is true of Roglic, who put 2 minutes into Dumoulin in the TT at the end of the Giro last year.

My suspicion is that Sky will try to send Froome up the road and make Dumoulin and Roglic chase.  Thomas can just sit on Dumoulin, and if he cracks can try to bridge to Froome. They can't risk sending Thomas up the road, because they can't be sure he won't blow up, but they definitely need to gain time.

Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #757 on: 25 July, 2018, 11:50:24 am »
Nah, the Giro TT where Roglic hammered Dumoulin was the mid-race one in 2016, when TD had just suffered a jour sans and Roglic had the benefit of running on dry roads.  I don't think any of the top four will put more than a handful of seconds into each other in the TT.

quixoticgeek

  • Mostly Harmless
Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #758 on: 25 July, 2018, 12:07:21 pm »
Sky need to do something - if they do nothing, Dumoulin could win the TT and overtake Thomas and Froome for yellow.  Same is true of Roglic, who put 2 minutes into Dumoulin in the TT at the end of the Giro last year.

My suspicion is that Sky will try to send Froome up the road and make Dumoulin and Roglic chase.  Thomas can just sit on Dumoulin, and if he cracks can try to bridge to Froome. They can't risk sending Thomas up the road, because they can't be sure he won't blow up, but they definitely need to gain time.

My money is that Thomas will be the super domestique to help Froome. Froome is going to give it full gas from the off, there's going to be a team sky person every 1km or so on the climbs to fuel them, when Froome hits the top of the climbs, he's going to power straight over, no 10 second ease up breather to recover before the descent, no easy spinning while he puts a jacket on to descent, the Zoncolan was the test run, today is deployment. It's going to be cold, calculated, and executed with precision.

Dumoulin is on his own with no backup[1]. Sky have a team of 2. That 2 is going to beat the 1 every day.

Either Froome crosses the line and has pulled out a lead to 3-5 mins, or he's going to crash out trying. If sky are lucky, Thomas will still be in P2, but if they have to burn him completely to keep Dumoulin at bay, they will.

I'm happy to be wrong about this. But it's my prediction.

J

[1] his nearest team mate is in p26, down in the second arrow of the grid, but he has a team sky rider in P23 just ahead of him to mark him off.
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Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #759 on: 25 July, 2018, 12:14:14 pm »
Nah, the Giro TT where Roglic hammered Dumoulin was the mid-race one in 2016, when TD had just suffered a jour sans and Roglic had the benefit of running on dry roads.  I don't think any of the top four will put more than a handful of seconds into each other in the TT.
Fair enough - Roglic is a bit of a wild card (he hadn't been riding GC then either, so could have been comparatively fresh).  This article seems to have a bit more research though and demonstrates that Dumoulin has the pedigree to beat Froome by enough time in the TT:
https://cyclingtips.com/2018/07/today-at-the-tour-tom-dumoulins-dilemma/

However Thomas hasn't raced proper long TTs with something on the line for ages (if ever?). So it's much harder to work out how he stacks up against Dumoulin.  I suspect that Thomas finishes close enough in the TT to stay ahead if there is no change in time over the next 2 days. Assuming he stays upright and doesn't have a jour sans. I guess we'll find out... :)

citoyen

  • Occasionally rides a bike
Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #760 on: 25 July, 2018, 12:27:24 pm »
[1] his nearest team mate is in p26, down in the second arrow of the grid, but he has a team sky rider in P23 just ahead of him to mark him off.

I did wonder if blocking tactics might come into play but from what I've read this morning, it sounds highly unlikely as the road is wide and overtaking will be easy.

The length and difficulty of the first climb (15km at 6.7%) means any early attackers will find it hard to stay away from the chasing pack all the way to the summit and still have enough left to be in contention at the finish.
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Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #761 on: 25 July, 2018, 12:33:03 pm »
I, for one, will be a bit pissed off if T $ky throw GT under the bus for Froome.
Do not clench. It only makes it worse.

quixoticgeek

  • Mostly Harmless
Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #762 on: 25 July, 2018, 12:37:45 pm »
I, for one, will be a bit pissed off if T $ky throw GT under the bus for Froome.

You and a couple of million others. Since when have Sky cared about public opinion?

J
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citoyen

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Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #763 on: 25 July, 2018, 12:40:48 pm »
@INRNG on twitter:
"Timeline feels too full of references to today's start grid. Yes it's novel + visible but the three climbs and the toboggan descent off the Col d'Azet surely all more significant?"

https://twitter.com/inrng/status/1022080121707130881

He can usually be relied on to know what he's talking about.
"The future's all yours, you lousy bicycles."

Samuel D

Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #764 on: 25 July, 2018, 12:51:07 pm »
I, for one, will be a bit pissed off if T $ky throw GT under the bus for Froome.

There has been no sign they will do so. On the contrary, it looks like Thomas is being given every opportunity to win the Tour if he can. I think that will continue and Froome will have to race Thomas if he wants to win. He’ll try that today if he has the legs.

I cannot see the starting grid having an effect on the race. The GC riders aren’t going to sprint and keep going until the Col de Peyresourde is climbed! As likely as not they’ll not even sprint out of the blocks for show. Teams that want to regroup will do so in the first few minutes without difficulty. Of course breakaway riders will be up the road by then, but so what (from the perspective of teams with a GC guy in the hunt).

LottoNL-Jumbo, Movistar, AG2R, or Sunweb will probably try a long-range attack (in about that order of likelihood?), perhaps on the second climb (Col de Val Louron-Azet). It probably won’t work and Sky, Dumoulin, and assorted others will reel it in. If Froome has the legs, I think he’s likely to go early on the Col du Portet when someone like Bardet attacks, in the hope of taking major time on Thomas and Dumoulin if they crack. I reckon he has a good chance of winning the stage but not by enough time to unseat Thomas.

My hope, on the other hand, is that Froome goes on the descent of the Col de Val Louron-Azet and Thomas, Dumoulin, Bardet and others have to make a wild chase.

Dumoulin may do better than expected on these steep climbs. Yesterday’s long and fast but attack-free stage was much easier for a big guy like him than for the pure climbers.

Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #765 on: 25 July, 2018, 01:31:02 pm »
Apparently only once in the last 10 years has the yellow jersey holder been overturned at this stage, and that was Cadel Evans from Voeckler in 2011.
Cycle and recycle.   SS Wilson

Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #766 on: 25 July, 2018, 01:48:59 pm »
He’d have needed a full minute on Alaphilippe to survive that descent.
Nah. Yates was matching him on the descent and would have held off until the finish.

Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #767 on: 25 July, 2018, 02:07:05 pm »
Apparently only once in the last 10 years has the yellow jersey holder been overturned at this stage, and that was Cadel Evans from Voeckler in 2011.
But in 2008, stage 17 was the stage that Sastre took over from Schleck F, who went on to only finish 5th...
In 2007, stage 17 was the stage which Rasmussen didn't start, which changed the YJ holder...
In 2006, stage 17 was the famous Lazarus of Morzine stage on which Landis brought himself back into contention to retake the jersey in the later TT...

Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #768 on: 25 July, 2018, 02:21:04 pm »
Sky need to do something - if they do nothing, Dumoulin could win the TT and overtake Thomas and Froome for yellow.  Same is true of Roglic, who put 2 minutes into Dumoulin in the TT at the end of the Giro last year.

My suspicion is that Sky will try to send Froome up the road and make Dumoulin and Roglic chase.  Thomas can just sit on Dumoulin, and if he cracks can try to bridge to Froome. They can't risk sending Thomas up the road, because they can't be sure he won't blow up, but they definitely need to gain time.

My money is that Thomas will be the super domestique to help Froome. Froome is going to give it full gas from the off, there's going to be a team sky person every 1km or so on the climbs to fuel them, when Froome hits the top of the climbs, he's going to power straight over, no 10 second ease up breather to recover before the descent, no easy spinning while he puts a jacket on to descent, the Zoncolan was the test run, today is deployment. It's going to be cold, calculated, and executed with precision.

Dumoulin is on his own with no backup[1]. Sky have a team of 2. That 2 is going to beat the 1 every day.

Either Froome crosses the line and has pulled out a lead to 3-5 mins, or he's going to crash out trying. If sky are lucky, Thomas will still be in P2, but if they have to burn him completely to keep Dumoulin at bay, they will.

I'm happy to be wrong about this. But it's my prediction.

J

[1] his nearest team mate is in p26, down in the second arrow of the grid, but he has a team sky rider in P23 just ahead of him to mark him off.

No way.

He'll wait for his team, as will all the other GC contenders. It won't go off until the last or the penultimate climb.

woollypigs

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Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #769 on: 25 July, 2018, 02:23:16 pm »
Well that start was a bit of meh
Current mood: AARRRGGGGHHHHH !!! #bollockstobrexit

citoyen

  • Occasionally rides a bike
Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #770 on: 25 July, 2018, 02:23:38 pm »
I think the riders made their feelings on the grid start pretty clear with the looks of disdain as they rolled away casually.
"The future's all yours, you lousy bicycles."

T42

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Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #771 on: 25 July, 2018, 02:24:32 pm »
Business as usual.
I've dusted off all those old bottles and set them up straight

T42

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Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #772 on: 25 July, 2018, 02:36:25 pm »
34.5°C on the road. Must be bloody hot in the middle of the pelican.
I've dusted off all those old bottles and set them up straight

citoyen

  • Occasionally rides a bike
Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #773 on: 25 July, 2018, 02:52:45 pm »
A wonderful bird is the pelican...
"The future's all yours, you lousy bicycles."

quixoticgeek

  • Mostly Harmless
Re: Tour de France 2018
« Reply #774 on: 25 July, 2018, 02:57:11 pm »

Quintana is having a lot of issues with the Di2 of his front wheel. Poor sod.

J
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