[HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?

[Justin(e)]

What odds was he offering, or wasn't he prepared to 'put his money where his ( big ) mouth is'?

A secondary market in establishing the odds of success would certainly be interesting.

Whilst my heart is definitely with Steve, I think it highly unlikely that he will hold the HAM'R record at this attempt.  My rationale is that time trials are all about consistency.  And the crash has made smooth milages impossible.  Even now there is a large degree of bumpiness in the daily distances.

At this stage Kurt looks like a really solid bet.  But continuing the cricketing metaphor above, if this was a one day match, the team batting first has the runs on the board and that is a huge advantage.  I reckon you'd have to favour Tommy to come out on top at the end.   

[TimC]

If we've learned nothing else about this venture, it's now obvious just what an incredible achievement Tommy Godwin's 1939 effort really was. The fact that he managed 361 miles on 21 June - which I think is more than any of the current aspirants have achieved on any single day - signifies how intent he was on setting the record beyond any meaningful competition which could be envisaged in those days. Kurt, Steve and Miles are all exceptional - no, beyond exceptional - cyclists, and it's by no means certain that any of them will exceed Tommy's total. Kurt's looking most likely right now, but Steve and Miles' experiences have shown how easily things can be derailed. My admiration for all of them is immense. I just hope that they all achieve enough to feel that they've done their best.

[Wobbly]

If we've learned nothing else about this venture, it's now obvious just what an incredible achievement Tommy Godwin's 1939 effort really was.

That.

[Morrisette]

If we've learned nothing else about this venture, it's now obvious just what an incredible achievement Tommy Godwin's 1939 effort really was.

That.

+1.

361 miles in ONE day?? We are all sure that Tommy Godwin wasn't an android sent from the future to stop John Connor being born and ensure the machines will take over the world set an actual unbeatable record? (not that I think it is unbeatable...my current thought on the attempt is that Steve can still do it).

[Exit Stage Left]

Godwin was assisted in his rides by the Raleigh record beating team, who had been at their endeavours for two years, backed by the largest cycle company in the world. The year record included pacing.

To prove the new hub to the “speedman”, Raleigh-Sturmey Archer engaged Charlies Holland, Bert James and Sid Ferris to undertake a series of long distance rides on Raleigh Record Aces with AR hubs to beat the records then held by derailleur-equipped machines starting in summer 1937. On 3 June Ferris did Edinburgh-London in 20 hours 19 minutes, besting the previous record by 1 ½ hours and 20 July Land’s End to John O’Groats in 2 days 6 hours 33 minutes, beating Opperman’s time by 2 hours 28 minutes and standing for 21 years. When his June Edinburgh-London record was disallowed because of a rule violation by a assistant rider that October, the opportunity was seized to try again that month and Ferris broke the record again despite riding 15 hours of it in the dark and also proving the worth of another new (1936) Sturmey-Archer innovation, the 12 v. dynohub lighting system.

On 19 March 1938 Bert James cut 9 mins. 53 secs. off the 100-mile record on an RRA with AR hub, clocking 3 hours 45 mins and 51 secs. for an average speed of 27 mph. That year Sid Ferris capped his remarkable career breaking the RRA 24-hour record at 465.75 miles from Edinburgh to the South Coast, again using a Record Ace with the AR hub and Dynohub. That year, Charles Holland, riding for Raleigh/Sturmey-Archer, broke the RRA record for Liverpool-Edinburgh in June, clocking 10 hours for the 210 miles, 12 minutes faster than the previous record held by Frank Southall. On 13 October 1938 he dropped 25 minutes off the Land’s End-London record, doing the 287 miles in 13 hours 44 minutes at an average 21 mph despite hours of rain and four punctures en route riding the new Charles Holland Continental model of the RRA (see below) with an AM hub. Another RRA with AR hub record run was Bert James’ London-Portsmouth roundtrip (137 miles) clocked at 8 hours, 33 minutes and 57 seconds despite poor weather and punctures.

http://threespeedhub.com/pre-war-raleigh-record-ace-rra/

[TimC]

If we've learned nothing else about this venture, it's now obvious just what an incredible achievement Tommy Godwin's 1939 effort really was.

That.

+1.

361 miles in ONE day?? We are all sure that Tommy Godwin wasn't an android sent from the future to stop John Connor being born and ensure the machines will take over the world set an actual unbeatable record? (not that I think it is unbeatable...my current thought on the attempt is that Steve can still do it).

I hope you'll forgive me if I express some doubt that Steve will beat Tommy's record, at least in the current attempt (Jan-Dec 2015). I believe that his broken ankle - not unreasonably! - has made such a dent in his efforts that it's now unfair to expect him to average the 250+ miles per day he needs to for the rest of the year. Every day he rides less than 250 miles increases the pressure - yesterday was 'just' 132. I think it's time for us to accept that whatever total Steve achieves in 2015, it will probably be less than the 75k Tommy did, but will still have been an amazing effort. If - as was mooted a while back - Steve restarts the challenge then we should, as he will, treat that as an entirely separate endeavour.

[Legs]

+1 to TimC.

It's a tough call to make, because resting up in advance of a Miles-style reboot is going to dent progress towards the 100,000 mile record that Steve may have had an eye on.  He is obviously capable of knocking out 260-280 mile rides now, but they're being wasted if he doesn't count them towards the reboot record.  And, IANASportsScientist, but I don't think that he needs to put in the miles for 'training', either.  One thing's for sure - if/when he starts again (officially), he needs to hit the ground (bad choice of words) running riding.

[Fidgetbuzz]

I have been otherwise committed in the last 2 weeks - and have only just caught up with this thread - but noticed that a few days ago there were posts about the cash position.

I am sure that you will understand that I am not going to be specific about the position , but as far as i am aware since the accident not a single standing order has been cancelled or amended. There are still one off donations from individuals and from audax events coming in and the occasional new standing order, sometimes for an amount that I would describe as very generous.

You would not expect to hear much about the money side if all is looking OK, after all it is the miles that matter not the money.

So here is the best I can do to provide a modicum of comfort  -....     I am sleeping well at night !!
Roger

[tonyh]

     Many thanks, FB.

[mcshroom]

Good to hear

[Arry-R]

Plus 1   

[Marmitegeoff]

Many Thanks FB.   I feel sure that if the situation were otherwise then some small hints would start appearing.   Glad you are sleeping well.

[Tim Hall]

A news letter has flooded in. Not from Mrs Trellis of North Wales but from Steve's team.  Excellent stuff. Keep on keeping us informed.

[Vince]

Mrs Trellis' URL: http://us9.campaign-archive1.com/?u=f184c841a68a86ce82d222948&id=87cc69a110

[Kim]

I particularly liked:

Who are you competing against Tommy Godwin or Kurt Searvogel?
 
Neither. I’m just trying to do as many miles as I can and pass Godwin’s total. I’m not competing against him - as he’s not here - and I’m riding under different conditions.

   GO STEVE!

[simonp]

The graph on Jo's website seems to suggest Steve is not yet consistently able to achieve the daily distances needed to get to 75,000 miles in 2015.

[andyoxon]

Given that there have been a number of ~205mile rides recently, it could be that Steve has already started a new/concurrent attempt...  Just speculation.

Go Steve!

[mattc]

Given that there have been a number of ~205mile rides recently, it could be that Steve has already started a new/concurrent attempt...  Just speculation.

Go Steve!

Yes, that seems a sound speculation!

IIRC the last target figure to catch-up was over 240miles-a-day? He's a long way off that recently.

[wajcgac]

From Steves facebook page -

Steve's plan is still to try and pass Tommy Godwin's mileage by year end. He realises the 'audacity' of the task, but at this point he's still willing to give it everything he has. He is likely to start running a concurrent (new) record attempt next month, so that he still gives himself a full 12 months to see what he is truly capable of. That's the plan thus far. Regards, Steve's Support Team.

No login required

https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015

Good to see that the concurrent attempt is still in the pipeline.

Go Steve !

[TimC]

Has it been confirmed that the UCMA will accept concurrent attempts by an athlete?

In any case, if Steve is to have a chance of taking the record, he needs to get the big miles in consistently while the weather is good - as he recognised with his high/low schedules. He doesn't have the benefit of good winter weather that Kurt was able to take advantage of, and maintaining the average record pace of 205+mpd in a UK winter is asking a great deal. So, whether the original attempt continues or this becomes a new attempt from some date in the near future, Steve needs to be racking up those 240+mpd efforts while the weather's good and the days are long. It isn't happening, and that worries me.

[simonp]

From Steves facebook page -

Steve's plan is still to try and pass Tommy Godwin's mileage by year end. He realises the 'audacity' of the task, but at this point he's still willing to give it everything he has. He is likely to start running a concurrent (new) record attempt next month, so that he still gives himself a full 12 months to see what he is truly capable of. That's the plan thus far. Regards, Steve's Support Team.

No login required

https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015

Good to see that the concurrent attempt is still in the pipeline.

Go Steve !

Thanks!

Hidden in a comment - took me some time to find it despite being directed there by your post.

Looks like 19 months elapsed if starting again on 1st August.

[wajcgac]

Has it been confirmed that the UCMA will accept concurrent attempts by an athlete?

I guess Miles would be a good person to ask about this as he has restarted his attempt but may know if his original attempt is effectively still running as well. I think he may have other things more pressing to attend to though.

So, whether the original attempt continues or this becomes a new attempt from some date in the near future, Steve needs to be racking up those 240+mpd efforts while the weather's good and the days are long. It isn't happening, and that worries me.

I'm hoping that this is because he is still getting up to full fitness, rather than he is not capable of doing so when fully fit. I'm sure this is why he is waiting another month before any potential restart - he needs to be at his peak otherwise his new attempt would be compromised immediately.

Steve looked to be well on target before the incident with the moped rider. He was nearly 2700 miles up on Tommy on the 28th March when it happened and I think he would have increased this for a further 2 months as Tommy didn't really get going till June.

We don't know if Steve could have matched the huge mileage in the summer months without the injury but he had a buffer to work with and I think he would have gained more miles later in the year.

Only after 12 months of Steve cycling fully fit will we know the reality.

However, if he is determined to beat Tommy's record and hold the record of the highest mileage ridden in a year - regardless of UMCA age category he may well find that the bar has been set higher by Kurt.

[TimC]

Recent statements by Steve suggest he thinks he can still do it. I think that's probably a bit too optimistic; he's around 8000 miles below the cumulative average mileage and about 5500 miles behind Tommy's curve. With 179 days to go, that means he needs to average around 30 miles a day more than Tommy, or about 250 miles every day for the rest of the year. If he follows Tommy's curve but does that 30 miles a day more, he'd need to be doing something well over 300 miles a day now. That just doesn't seem likely.

If, on the other hand, Steve restarts the challenge on some date in the near future, he has to either equal Tommy's daily mileage or hope he can significantly beat it through the winter period to allow a more achievable target in the remaining summer months. That seems a lot more do-able - he was about 3000 miles ahead of Tommy when the accident happened. An out-of-the-gate daily figure of 220-230 miles a day from, say, 1 August followed by a winter of 180-200 mpd, then racking up next summer to 220-230 again would see him past the 75k - but, as you say, not necessarily beyond Kurt's total!

It remains fascinating whichever route Steve decides to take, and I continue to wish him all success.

[Oakhambike]

Agree with previous post though I was thinking that a 1st September re-start more likely than 1st August - but most of all GOOD LUCK Steve.

Wondering about the huge mileages Tommy did  through the Summer of '39 - do we know whether these were the result of time on the bike and not much sleep or due to higher speed? If the latter I wonder if being paced had a big effect for Tommy ?

[Salvatore]

Agree with previous post though I was thinking that a 1st September re-start more likely than 1st August - but most of all GOOD LUCK Steve.

Wondering about the huge mileages Tommy did  through the Summer of '39 - do we know whether these were the result of time on the bike and not much sleep or due to higher speed? If the latter I wonder if being paced had a big effect for Tommy ?

Both organised pacing and very long days according to an article in the Western Daily Press on August 10 1939:

The whole article: