Coronavirus and Audax

[citoyen]

Park run can be easily made socially distant...

Have you ever done a parkrun?

[Greenbank]

It's not rocket science and nobody will catch the virus by standing for a couple of seconds within 2 mt of another... otherwise the average R wouldn't be 3, but more like 30

Unless they sneeze or cough, which is one of the major drivers behind the 2m distance.

The spread of airborne droplets will drop off at somewhere between square and cube of distance from source, but if you're within 2m when someone coughs or sneezes you've got a fraction of a second before you're inhaling what they've just expelled. (Obviously it'll be worse if you're standing right next to them.)

Without a cough or a sneeze I think it's something like ~15 minutes for borderline "safety" with a 2m separation, so standing in a queue outside a supermarket for 45 minutes, 2m apart from someone in front and someone behind isn't particularly safe either.

[citoyen]

The last weekend before lockdown was Whitstable parkrun #500. There had been lots of plans to make it a big celebratory event but on the day, numbers were down quite significantly on the usual turnout - I thought long and hard about it myself and with hindsight I think I probably made the wrong decision to attend.

When it first started, the council placed a restriction on numbers - 200, I think - because they didn't want the seafront being overrun. For the first few years, that wasn't an issue. But in the last couple of years, turnout has regularly been in excess of 400, and it's been clear to me for a while that it has outgrown its location (which is one of the reasons I tend to prefer to go to Canterbury parkrun instead these days).

Even though it's obviously a much smaller event than Wimbledon, you'd still have to impose a similar restriction on numbers to that suggested by Greenbank to make it workable with social distancing.

In any case, Paul Sinton-Hewitt has already rejected the idea outright, so there's no chance of it happening.

[Davef]

For my local parkrun (Wimbledon Common) you'd probably have to limit it to 1/10th of the usual field, probably even less, such are the width of some of the paths on the early part of the course.

[ EDIT - let's have some fun with maths... ]

600 people funnel through here: https://goo.gl/maps/xwgG5J7CHAkdwSut6 within 400m of the start. The bit at the end is easily under 2m wide so everyone would need to go through one at a time.

The fast people (~15min) will be through 400m in just over a minute. The slow people (1h) will be through 400m in just under 5 minutes.

So you have 240 seconds to get 600 people through that gap one at a time, so each person has 0.4 seconds to travel 2m through the gap to maintain distance. 2m in 0.4 seconds is 18kph. Nope.

The last park run at Wimbledon common had 293 entrants, so 9kph. Also there is a time element to exposure. The South Koreans use 15 minutes at 2m as the criteria for a track and trace “hit”.

You can also carry on your maths, with r0 of 2.4 you are expecting in a non socially distance normal life (commuting, sharing beds, going to pub) one infected person over a 5.1 day period infect 2.4 other people. If there is one infected person on a park run for half an hour, how many do you think they could infect ?

Edit: and if the problem is a bottleneck near the start reverse the course.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Jaded]

For my local parkrun (Wimbledon Common) you'd probably have to limit it to 1/10th of the usual field, probably even less, such are the width of some of the paths on the early part of the course.

[ EDIT - let's have some fun with maths... ]

600 people funnel through here: https://goo.gl/maps/xwgG5J7CHAkdwSut6 within 400m of the start. The bit at the end is easily under 2m wide so everyone would need to go through one at a time.

The fast people (~15min) will be through 400m in just over a minute. The slow people (1h) will be through 400m in just under 5 minutes.

So you have 240 seconds to get 600 people through that gap one at a time, so each person has 0.4 seconds to travel 2m through the gap to maintain distance. 2m in 0.4 seconds is 18kph. Nope.

The last park run at Wimbledon common had 293 entrants, so 9kph. Also there is a time element to exposure. The South Koreans use 15 minutes at 2m as the criteria for a track and trace “hit”.

You can also carry on your maths, with r0 of 2.4 you are expecting in a non socially distance normal life (commuting, sharing beds, going to pub) one infected person over a 5.1 day period infect 2.4 other people. If there is one infected person on a park run for half an hour, how many do you think they could infect ?

Edit: and if the problem is a bottleneck near the start reverse the course.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

You've never been to or done a Parkrun, have you.

[citoyen]

There are two separate issues here - one is the actual risk of transmission, the other is compliance with current social distancing guidelines.

The latter is an insurmountable problem for parkrun. Anyone who thinks otherwise is clueless.

On the former, is it really worth undertaking the experiment to find out exactly how many people can get infected?

[Davef]

For my local parkrun (Wimbledon Common) you'd probably have to limit it to 1/10th of the usual field, probably even less, such are the width of some of the paths on the early part of the course.

[ EDIT - let's have some fun with maths... ]

600 people funnel through here: https://goo.gl/maps/xwgG5J7CHAkdwSut6 within 400m of the start. The bit at the end is easily under 2m wide so everyone would need to go through one at a time.

The fast people (~15min) will be through 400m in just over a minute. The slow people (1h) will be through 400m in just under 5 minutes.

So you have 240 seconds to get 600 people through that gap one at a time, so each person has 0.4 seconds to travel 2m through the gap to maintain distance. 2m in 0.4 seconds is 18kph. Nope.

The last park run at Wimbledon common had 293 entrants, so 9kph. Also there is a time element to exposure. The South Koreans use 15 minutes at 2m as the criteria for a track and trace “hit”.

You can also carry on your maths, with r0 of 2.4 you are expecting in a non socially distance normal life (commuting, sharing beds, going to pub) one infected person over a 5.1 day period infect 2.4 other people. If there is one infected person on a park run for half an hour, how many do you think they could infect ?

Edit: and if the problem is a bottleneck near the start reverse the course.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

You've never been to or done a Parkrun, have you.

Me, 7. You ?

Edit: 7 different ones. Would have to check how many times in total.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[S2L]

You can also carry on your maths, with r0 of 2.4 you are expecting in a non socially distance normal life (commuting, sharing beds, going to pub) one infected person over a 5.1 day period infect 2.4 other people. If there is one infected person on a park run for half an hour, how many do you think they could infect ?

This is the thing... with such a low average transmission rate, it's not as easy to catch as being close to someone for a few seconds.

As for the coughing and sneezing... when was the last time someone sneezed at you?
Coughing and sneezing are quickly becoming part of the "not to do" things in public, like farting in an elevator or burping in a restaurant.

There are currently around 4,000 positive cases a day, with much increased testing, so probably not a million miles from the real picture... despite the lockdown there are still millions of people out there, often interacting at short distance and unprotected (hospitals, care homes, building sites, public services) an yet, very few get it.

The risk outdoors is massively overplayed to stay on the safe side of things

[Davef]

There are two separate issues here - one is the actual risk of transmission, the other is compliance with current social distancing guidelines.

The latter is an insurmountable problem for parkrun. Anyone who thinks otherwise is clueless.

On the former, is it really worth undertaking the experiment to find out exactly how many people can get infected?

Obviously it does not comply with the current rules which make it illegal to have gatherings of more than 2. We are guessing what the future loosening of restrictions might be.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[citoyen]

We are guessing what the future loosening of restrictions might be.

With regard to parkrun specifically, it's a moot point, since Paul Sinton-Hewitt has ruled out restarting parkrun with any restrictions, however loose.

[Jaded]

For my local parkrun (Wimbledon Common) you'd probably have to limit it to 1/10th of the usual field, probably even less, such are the width of some of the paths on the early part of the course.

[ EDIT - let's have some fun with maths... ]

600 people funnel through here: https://goo.gl/maps/xwgG5J7CHAkdwSut6 within 400m of the start. The bit at the end is easily under 2m wide so everyone would need to go through one at a time.

The fast people (~15min) will be through 400m in just over a minute. The slow people (1h) will be through 400m in just under 5 minutes.

So you have 240 seconds to get 600 people through that gap one at a time, so each person has 0.4 seconds to travel 2m through the gap to maintain distance. 2m in 0.4 seconds is 18kph. Nope.

The last park run at Wimbledon common had 293 entrants, so 9kph. Also there is a time element to exposure. The South Koreans use 15 minutes at 2m as the criteria for a track and trace “hit”.

You can also carry on your maths, with r0 of 2.4 you are expecting in a non socially distance normal life (commuting, sharing beds, going to pub) one infected person over a 5.1 day period infect 2.4 other people. If there is one infected person on a park run for half an hour, how many do you think they could infect ?

Edit: and if the problem is a bottleneck near the start reverse the course.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

You've never been to or done a Parkrun, have you.

Me, 7. You ?

Edit: 7 different ones. Would have to check how many times in total.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Oh, I've been around the world with Parkrun. Number of runners from c25 to c800

I cannot think of a single one that could easily and sensibly, given the low cost, volunteer-run nature, comply with social distancing and good bio-security.

[S2L]

We are guessing what the future loosening of restrictions might be.

With regard to parkrun specifically, it's a moot point, since Paul Sinton-Hewitt has ruled out restarting parkrun with any restrictions, however loose.

He'll change his mind... restrictions are here to stay... there might be restrictions in 10 years time.

The flu vaccine has not eradicated the flu... and it doesn't even work that well

[citoyen]

He'll change his mind... restrictions are here to stay... there might be restrictions in 10 years time.

Maybe. Maybe not. It's all conjecture at this point.

[Davef]

We are guessing what the future loosening of restrictions might be.

With regard to parkrun specifically, it's a moot point, since Paul Sinton-Hewitt has ruled out restarting parkrun with any restrictions, however loose.

There will be some forms of social distancing until a vaccine is readily available, so many many months. Park run said yesterday there would be no park runs in May and 2 weeks notice will be given before restart. It may well be that they aren’t expecting any for many many months but I do not get that impression. I would be very surprised if by end of July there had not been some park runs in the uk.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Davef]

For my local parkrun (Wimbledon Common) you'd probably have to limit it to 1/10th of the usual field, probably even less, such are the width of some of the paths on the early part of the course.

[ EDIT - let's have some fun with maths... ]

600 people funnel through here: https://goo.gl/maps/xwgG5J7CHAkdwSut6 within 400m of the start. The bit at the end is easily under 2m wide so everyone would need to go through one at a time.

The fast people (~15min) will be through 400m in just over a minute. The slow people (1h) will be through 400m in just under 5 minutes.

So you have 240 seconds to get 600 people through that gap one at a time, so each person has 0.4 seconds to travel 2m through the gap to maintain distance. 2m in 0.4 seconds is 18kph. Nope.

The last park run at Wimbledon common had 293 entrants, so 9kph. Also there is a time element to exposure. The South Koreans use 15 minutes at 2m as the criteria for a track and trace “hit”.

You can also carry on your maths, with r0 of 2.4 you are expecting in a non socially distance normal life (commuting, sharing beds, going to pub) one infected person over a 5.1 day period infect 2.4 other people. If there is one infected person on a park run for half an hour, how many do you think they could infect ?

Edit: and if the problem is a bottleneck near the start reverse the course.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

You've never been to or done a Parkrun, have you.

Me, 7. You ?

Edit: 7 different ones. Would have to check how many times in total.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Oh, I've been around the world with Parkrun. Number of runners from c25 to c800

I cannot think of a single one that could easily and sensibly, given the low cost, volunteer-run nature, comply with social distancing and good bio-security.

I have a bigger range: smallest 11, biggest 1046.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[S2L]

He'll change his mind... restrictions are here to stay... there might be restrictions in 10 years time.

Maybe. Maybe not. It's all conjecture at this point.

Once they do the maths and realise the costs involved in having gatherings inside and outside bars, venues and pubs and how the tax revenue doesn't make up for that, you'll see that there will be plenty of restrictions... Covid or not... we'll learn to live with restrictions, which is probably a good thing in an overpopulated world

[telstarbox]

When it first started, the council placed a restriction on numbers - 200, I think - because they didn't want the seafront being overrun. For the first few years, that wasn't an issue. But in the last couple of years, turnout has regularly been in excess of 400, and it's been clear to me for a while that it has outgrown its location (which is one of the reasons I tend to prefer to go to Canterbury parkrun instead these days).
 

Out of interest how did they enforce that? What happened if a mob from Herne Bay turned up for example?

[citoyen]

I would be very surprised if by end of July there had not been some park runs in the uk.

It will be either all or none, for the reasons PSH has set out.

It may be that for the long term, parkrun has to change how it operates if it is going to continue, but that would require changing the ethos of parkrun at a fundamental level.

[S2L]

It may be that for the long term, parkrun has to change how it operates if it is going to continue, but that would require changing the ethos of parkrun at a fundamental level.

Like democracy, freedom of speech... or capitalism?

[citoyen]

Out of interest how did they enforce that? What happened if a mob from Herne Bay turned up for example?

I'm not aware of it ever having been practically enforced and it was never necessary in the early days anyway.

I don't believe the restriction has ever formally been lifted but it's certainly not enforced now either. Not sure how it would be possible to enforce it anyway - it may theoretically become an issue one day if something happens to upset the locals and the council demand it be enforced or revoke the licence.

[citoyen]

It may be that for the long term, parkrun has to change how it operates if it is going to continue, but that would require changing the ethos of parkrun at a fundamental level.

Like democracy, freedom of speech... or capitalism?

I have no idea know what point you're trying to make here. But in simple practical terms, it would have to convert to being run more like other kinds of events (eg audax) with some kind of formal entry mechanism.

[Greenbank]

parkrun already has the concept of Freedom runs: https://support.parkrun.com/hc/en-us/articles/200565333-What-is-parkrun-Freedom-

But rolling this out as a replacement for official parkuns would just encourage many people to go run their local courses which may not be suitable. Not everyone has the ability to record/measure/run an arbitrary 5k route, those without GPSes (or apps on their phone) rely on their local parkrun course to ensure they do the distance and provide the timing (and the whole community aspect is a completely different level).

I know I've changed my usual running routes to avoid as many of the pinch points where maintaining adequate social distancing is tricky if there are others about. But then I'm also happy to stop and wait to allow people to pass, or walk down narrow alleyways, which is a complete anathema to many people I see out running.

[Davef]

I would be very surprised if by end of July there had not been some park runs in the uk.

It will be either all or none, for the reasons PSH has set out.

It may be that for the long term, parkrun has to change how it operates if it is going to continue, but that would require changing the ethos of parkrun at a fundamental level.

previously all park runs in the world were stopped simultaneously and now “It is likely therefore that some countries will re-open before others, although, again, it’s too early to predict at this stage.”. I think it very unlikely that all park runs will restart on the same day. Some might not restart at all.
 


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[TimC]

He'll change his mind... restrictions are here to stay... there might be restrictions in 10 years time.

Maybe. Maybe not. It's all conjecture at this point.

Once they do the maths and realise the costs involved in having gatherings inside and outside bars, venues and pubs and how the tax revenue doesn't make up for that, you'll see that there will be plenty of restrictions... Covid or not... we'll learn to live with restrictions, which is probably a good thing in an overpopulated world

All varieties of pandemic die out in time, along with the temporary measures put in place to control them. This one will be no different. In two years' time, there will be little remaining of any of the measures currently in place. Life will get back to normal eventually, no matter how much you might wish it were not so.

[S2L]

He'll change his mind... restrictions are here to stay... there might be restrictions in 10 years time.

Maybe. Maybe not. It's all conjecture at this point.

Once they do the maths and realise the costs involved in having gatherings inside and outside bars, venues and pubs and how the tax revenue doesn't make up for that, you'll see that there will be plenty of restrictions... Covid or not... we'll learn to live with restrictions, which is probably a good thing in an overpopulated world

All varieties of pandemic die out in time, along with the temporary measures put in place to control them. This one will be no different. In two years' time, there will be little remaining of any of the measures currently in place. Life will get back to normal eventually, no matter how much you might wish it were not so.

HIV never went away, we just learned to live with it... the kind of free sex that was common in 60s and 70s has long gone.

I was reading today that Covid 19 has the same hospital death rate of Ebola, which is quite sobering