LEL weather

[Ivo]

Now we're within 14 days of the event, somewhat reliable weather predictions start to appear.
Interestingly, for the part south of the Pennines there seems to be a constant 3-4beaufort northern wind. This might throw everyone's calculations out of the window. (And reduce the amount of people out of time/packing)

[Lightning Phil]

Nah the weather is too variable here, to rely on a forecast this far out.

“ Still the chance of some periods of organised rain in the north at times.”

[Wycombewheeler]

Now we're within 14 days of the event, somewhat reliable weather predictions start to appear.

In the UK, I wouldn't generally trust anything above 3 days. But it does seem the jet stream is well establish north of us this summer, so maybe...

Interestingly, for the part south of the Pennines there seems to be a constant 3-4beaufort northern wind.

I've been sacrificing livestock against a south wind, so it seems to be working

[Fidgetbuzz]

My FB post that you may not see .. was that I want riders to have a demanding  ride so I have been consulting Macbeth witches to see what can be arranged for Scotland and Lear's fool to set up thunder and lightening in the fens.

[Lightning Phil]

My nemesis the heat wave doesn't seem to be appearing in any forecasts, admittedly a week out.  I don't do well in heat, usually melting, but other weather I can deal with quite happily.

[Flite]

19C and a cool NW breeze in Weardale at the moment. (Monday 13.45)
Nice cycling weather...

[madcow]

Interestingly, for the part south of the Pennines there seems to be a constant 3-4beaufort northern wind.

Any wind, from any direction , would be an improvement on the 2017 leg from Spalding to St. Ives.
A tailwind home will just offset the extra miles and climbing bestowed upon us by the idiots staffing County Durham Highways dept.

[FifeingEejit]

My FB post that you may not see .. was that I want riders to have a demanding  ride so I have been consulting Macbeth witches to see what can be arranged for Scotland and Lear's fool to set up thunder and lightening in the fens.

They are ensconsed in the Sidlaw hills, they have power over the lands of MacBeath and MacDuff, Birnam Woods may march on Dunsinane but what do they make of the arse end of the Kingdom? 
You have 2 of Scotland's capitals on route (Edinburgh and Dunfermline), had the other (Scone) been added via another 2 (Markinch and Falkland) as I (not seriously) suggested to Danial at PBP 2019 those witches power would have been closer to home. 

At least you never fell into the trap that Fife is flat 

[Fidgetbuzz]

Failed to make contact with any evil spirits .. so currently it looks like a benign ride
Roger

[Wycombewheeler]

Failed to make contact with any evil spirits .. so currently it looks like a benign ride
Roger

let's let the birds hatch before counting. As I recall the forecast for PBP last time was minimum temperatures of about 12, but it turned out to be overnight lows of 4C

[Lightning Phil]

Forecast is for some heat once we get back to the Fens

[zacklaws]

Running Phil's North and South bound tracks through "Weather Bagel" certainly gives it good weather. Think I might just ride in "Speedo budgie smuggler" trunks and a "singlet" carry a few tubes of factor 50 sunscreen., if its good good for triathete's, its good enough for me, just don't have the body shape for it though.

But, running the scenario of my usual average speed for long rides based on my start time, it gives me about a 12mph headwind from Hessle to the finish.
But riding slower and close to the minimum speed, it becomes a good backwind for the same section.

But I find it annoying, that I spent a lot of time planning using my flight calculator and pen and paper to work out where and when I would be at certain places and where it will be night sections yesterday for certain average speed scenario's, all because my MS Excel program that would do it in a few minutes has become corrupted and I cannot find the fault, my two programs for PBP timings would not do it, the Audax UK timing program will only go up to a 1000k event.

And I completely forgot, that I could have got all this information from "Weather Bagel" of where and when I would be at certain places etc along with the weather and just wrote the info down from there. It would have saved me about 2 hours of frustration.

[Redlight]

Maybe you're over-thinking it all a little. Yes, it's a good idea to have a rough sense of what kind of average speed you need to maintain in order to reach the controls before they close and have sufficient time in hand for eating, resting, etc., but (IME) trying to plan a 1500km ride to the nearest hour or two is fruitless. Terrain, weather, tiredness, lethargy, speed of service at controls.... all will conspire to upset your plan.

By all means, have some rough targets for reaching, say, Louth, Barnard, Brampton, Edinburgh in each direction, but if you fixate on them you'll not enjoy the ride so much, and what's the point of not enjoying it?

[jdsnape]

On my last 600km ride I had to do a timetable because I needed to be in certain places before the shops shut, and as there was a long section with no provisions I had to be prepared to get stuff elsewhere if I wasn't going to make it. I found myself 1/2 hour behind almost from the start and it definitely affected my mood and I felt like I was constantly catching up.

I've resisted the temptation to do any real planning for this - I'm going to try and keep non-sleep control stops to < 30 minutes with an alarm on my phone and ride at a comfortable pace between controls. I'll try and get a short sleep at Malton or maybe Barnard Castle if I'm doing OK, then play it by ear from then on. There's not really much else I can do anyway!

[Notfromrugby]

By all means, have some rough targets for reaching, say, Louth, Barnard, Brampton, Edinburgh in each direction, but if you fixate on them you'll not enjoy the ride so much, and what's the point of not enjoying it?

This is it... I knew I was never going be a proper Randonneur, when I realised I was spending too much time planning details and getting annoyed when things didn't go to plan. Enjoy it (within reason) or don't bother... life is too short to do things you don't enjoy

[Ajax Bay]

My nemesis the heat wave doesn't seem to be appearing in any forecasts, admittedly a week out.  I don't do well in heat, usually melting, but other weather I can deal with quite happily.

Phil is off line till he stops riding but I fear his nemesis is going to be very much in evidence on Thursday and Friday, noon till six.

[toontra]

My nemesis the heat wave doesn't seem to be appearing in any forecasts, admittedly a week out.  I don't do well in heat, usually melting, but other weather I can deal with quite happily.

Phil is off line till he stops riding but I fear his nemesis is going to be very much in evidence on Thursday and Friday, noon till six.

Apparently Phil packed yesterday morning at Hessle (unless rumours are not accurate and he's just offline as you say).

[LittleWheelsandBig]

DNF rate looks likely to be sizeable.

[The French Tandem]

DNF rate looks likely to be sizeable.

From discussing with many riders who decided to pack at Barney, covid-related lack of training seems to be the major factor. Headwind on the outbound leg is also a depressing factor. Tell the riders that they 'll have a tailwind on the return leg, and they say the wind can change 

A

[Alex B]

From discussing with many riders who decided to pack at Barney, covid-related lack of training seems to be the major factor. Headwind on the outbound leg is also a depressing factor. Tell the riders that they 'll have a tailwind on the return leg, and they say the wind can change 

The wind is light enough it shouldn't have been a major factor, even if it does look likely to turn more into mild crosswind than mild tailwind on the return.

The heat makes it very tough for riders not used to that.

It's noticeable from looking at Strava over the last 18 months and seeing unexpected DNFs that the collective fitness of the randonneur "corps" has suffered from the pandemic, and in many individual cases a bout of COVID has affected training (here I am on a sofa and not riding the NC4000 for that reason).

But IMHO what makes this LEL really hard is the mandatory route and the notch up in climbing. There's no dodging those hills this time, and the necessary diversion in the Pennines looks brutal, especially southbound (the appropriately named Killhope Cross topping out at 24% e.g.).

I always thought there would be a 50% DNF rate - because of he heat I now think it could be quite a bit higher.

Still, it's not meant to be easy.

[Notfromrugby]

From discussing with many riders who decided to pack at Barney, covid-related lack of training seems to be the major factor. Headwind on the outbound leg is also a depressing factor. Tell the riders that they 'll have a tailwind on the return leg, and they say the wind can change 

The wind is light enough it shouldn't have been a major factor, even if it does look likely to turn more into mild crosswind than mild tailwind on the return.

The heat makes it very tough for riders not used to that.

It's noticeable from looking at Strava over the last 18 months and seeing unexpected DNFs that the collective fitness of the randonneur "corps" has suffered from the pandemic, and in many individual cases a bout of COVID has affected training (here I am on a sofa and not riding the NC4000 for that reason).

But IMHO what makes this LEL really hard is the mandatory route and the notch up in climbing. There's no dodging those hills this time, and the necessary diversion in the Pennines looks brutal, especially southbound (the appropriately named Killhope Cross topping out at 24% e.g.).

I always thought there would be a 50% DNF rate - because of he heat I now think it could be quite a bit higher.

Still, it's not meant to be easy.

The real heatwave hasn't even started... it's forecasted from Wednesday/Thursday onwards, so it will hit the return leg. In my opinion, the issue is that a sizeable slice of randonneurs doing long distance events are always on the edge of failure... moving speed is too slow, waste too long at controls and tend to be rather overweight and unfit, as athletes. Inevitably, any small variation to the theme, being that more hills, more wind or more heat cause many of them to go into failure mode.

[GavinC]

In my opinion, the issue is that a sizeable slice of randonneurs doing long distance events are always on the edge of failure... moving speed is too slow, waste too long at controls and tend to be rather overweight and unfit, as athletes. Inevitably, any small variation to the theme, being that more hills, more wind or more heat cause many of them to go into failure mode.

You’ve summed up pretty well why I packed at at Hessle yesterday 

[Notfromrugby]

There is also a clear lack of preparation, but not the kind of preparation people do, which typically involve killing themselves with an impossible schedule of overnight rides for months. I mean a scientific approach to training... ride smart, don't ride yourself into a rabbit hole. As a result, they get slower, rather than faster. They would be better off not riding at all and concentrating on losing weight and eating healthy.
I know a local very passionate randonneur, who has a phenomenal failure rate at anything above a 300, but when I look at what he does on Strava, it is obvious to me that he is in desperate need of rest... you just have to look at the bags under his eyes to figure out that he needs to sleep more and cycle less... yet he thinks that doing more is the way to be ready for the next big event, where he will fail once again.

There are cycling coaches, some of them understand long distance cycling rather well... many would benefit from working with one.

[mrcharly-YHT]

The real heatwave hasn't even started... it's forecasted from Wednesday/Thursday onwards, so it will hit the return leg. In my opinion, the issue is that a sizeable slice of randonneurs doing long distance events are always on the edge of failure... moving speed is too slow, waste too long at controls and tend to be rather overweight and unfit, as athletes. Inevitably, any small variation to the theme, being that more hills, more wind or more heat cause many of them to go into failure mode.

Hang on a minute, here you are saying that a lot of audaxers are overweight and unfit.

Then here,

ere is also a clear lack of preparation, but not the kind of preparation people do, which typically involve killing themselves with an impossible schedule of overnight rides for months.

you are saying they are overtraining.

That's a load of negativity.

I know people from this forum who (back when I used to ride a fair bit), who looked sizeable, but could ride me into the ground anytime. I was consistently at my heaviest when commuting 250miles a week; the mileages demanded a lot of eating.

Your point about the need to sleep and quality training, rather than endless miles, is a good one.

[farfetched]

I'm not an expert on any of this, I dont handle sleep deprivation well so I am stuck with 300-400 rides.

Wouldnt qualification rides help a bit in reducing the DNF ?  Surely a minimum BRM600 to qualify ?