Author Topic: [HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?  (Read 254287 times)

TimC

  • Old blerk sometimes onabike.
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #475 on: 05 December, 2015, 07:44:05 am »
The change of diet has affected Steve far more than I'm sure he or his team feared, but it's done now and the lost miles can't be undone. The double whammy of the diet change and the deterioration in the weather has made life very difficult for him. Steve has shown in the couple months before the change that he is capable of riding at greater than 'Standard Godwin' pace consistently when things are going well, and I'm sure he'll get back to that. Whether he can recover the lost miles on top of that is rather more difficult to predict, but I'm bloody certain he'll try!

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #476 on: 05 December, 2015, 05:27:27 pm »
Sadly (and I mean that) I don't think Steve will get / hold the record. Nor will anyone attempting it in the UK. There are far easier (for certain values of "easy") places in the world to do the sort of mileages necessary. The UK is too crowded, too trafficed and too hilly.
We are making a New World (Paul Nash, 1918)

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #477 on: 05 December, 2015, 05:35:41 pm »
Agreed, rat fletcher.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #478 on: 05 December, 2015, 06:40:31 pm »
Sadly (and I mean that) I don't think Steve will get / hold the record. Nor will anyone attempting it in the UK. There are far easier (for certain values of "easy") places in the world to do the sort of mileages necessary. The UK is too crowded, too trafficed and too hilly.

Luckily, Arthur Humbles, Walter Greaves, Tommy Godwin, Rene Menzies did not share that view. I think 80,000 is possible in the UK and Kurt won't get 80k. I think Tommy could have done 80k without the poor winter of 1939.

CrazyEnglishTriathlete

  • Miles eaten don't satisfy hunger
  • Chartered accountant in 5 different decades
    • CET Ride Reports and Blogs
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #479 on: 06 December, 2015, 07:08:29 am »
I'm just sitting back and thinking what Steve has achieved, 58000 miles on a bike in a year and counting - even with a period off for a broken ankle. 

1) That's further than anyone had cycled in a year in the last 76 years (there seems to have been a lot of fuss about some tennis players winning a trophy for the first time in 79 years recently

2) Steve had the courage to set out and give it a go, and even with his injury, proved that tackling 'the impossible record' was possible

3) He's created interest in the record which, assuming Kurt stays upright, will be beaten, and will have another serious attempt next year.

4) For all the talk of attempts in good climates - the trials and tribulations of Miles Smith, who had flat fast roads and a Mediterranean climate, show just how tough this is, I think other challengers such as Bruce Berkeley will find this too.

And he still has a good chance of beating the record.  On something like a '24' there is always a tough spot during the night - when the legs don't work, and you lose speed.  But that's often forgotten the next morning.  For Steve 15th November - the end of February is the equivalent of that night, where he will have bad days and hold it together, but I think you will see if he does (and I have no reason to suspect that he won't), that the speeds will pick up in the spring.

Forza Steve
Eddington Numbers 130 (imperial), 182 (metric) 574 (furlongs)  114 (nautical miles)

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #480 on: 06 December, 2015, 08:34:33 am »
Great posting C E T  thanks

Wowbagger

  • Stout dipper
    • Stuff mostly about weather
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #481 on: 06 December, 2015, 10:53:07 am »
I haven't experienced the Melbourne climate, but I think it can change very dramatically from day to day. I spoke to my daughter there one day last month and on the day in question it was as warm in Essex (17°) as it was in Melbourne. The previous day the temperature reached 34°C. That unpredictability must bring with it its own problems.
Quote from: Dez
It doesn’t matter where you start. Just start.

Jaded

  • The Codfather
  • Formerly known as Jaded
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #482 on: 06 December, 2015, 10:55:24 am »
Wot CET said.

It is simpler than it looks.

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #483 on: 06 December, 2015, 11:13:15 am »
The "4 seasons in 1 day" Crowded House song was about Melbourne.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

CrazyEnglishTriathlete

  • Miles eaten don't satisfy hunger
  • Chartered accountant in 5 different decades
    • CET Ride Reports and Blogs
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #484 on: 06 December, 2015, 02:20:55 pm »
I haven't experienced the Melbourne climate, but I think it can change very dramatically from day to day. I spoke to my daughter there one day last month and on the day in question it was as warm in Essex (17°) as it was in Melbourne. The previous day the temperature reached 34°C. That unpredictability must bring with it its own problems.

SE Australia has a weather cycle driven by fronts that pass along the south coast and turn up into the Tasman Sea.  A spell of settled weather is followed by increasing winds from the north west and then the "Southerly Buster" which can reach gusts of about 50mph.  In the summer this does result in a sudden temperature drop of 15 - 20C over 2 -5 hours as air heated up over the Australian deserts is replaced with cold air from the South Atlantic.  However, as someone who grew up in Plymouth, it was reasonably tame compared with a channel storm, and the strong winds didn't last for days on end like they do here. 
Eddington Numbers 130 (imperial), 182 (metric) 574 (furlongs)  114 (nautical miles)

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #485 on: 06 December, 2015, 05:55:29 pm »
C E T   What a mime of knowledge you are.  Thanks for sharing with us and please continue to do so!

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #486 on: 06 December, 2015, 06:43:46 pm »
If Steve can start and continue with the 'positive gradient' asap, doing a Godwin +7miles/day, he'd back at the WR line by end of March-ish (I think).  Even if the line was reached by beginning of May, he'd have three summer months to have Kurt S's new total (assuming etc...) in his sights.   OYTT is just such a monumental task!

Go Steve.
Cycle and recycle.   SS Wilson

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #487 on: 06 December, 2015, 08:14:44 pm »

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #488 on: 07 December, 2015, 08:50:55 am »
If Steve can start and continue with the 'positive gradient' asap, doing a Godwin +7miles/day, he'd back at the WR line by end of March-ish (I think).  Even if the line was reached by beginning of May, he'd have three summer months to have Kurt S's new total (assuming etc...) in his sights.   OYTT is just such a monumental task!

Go Steve.








He will not be averaging much over 190 per day now until early March's.  Then will need 220-230 every day for at least 90 days approx to catch up.   If this very mild winter continues it will help no end. Good luck Steve

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #489 on: 07 December, 2015, 10:43:52 am »
Although, Steve averaged ~180mls/dy Jan-Mar, when the strategy was different and the plan was to do really big miles in the summer AFAIA.
Cycle and recycle.   SS Wilson

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #490 on: 07 December, 2015, 10:56:43 am »
I see that Kurt is going to finish his year with a 300km Randonee in Florida. That makes quite a neat end to his story. It would be nice to film that, especially if was possible to get Steve out there for a bit of warm-weather riding.
Steve will still have 7 months to go at that point, and a trip to Florida would answer some of the questions about the effects of weather on the attempt.

marcusjb

  • Full of bon courage.
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #491 on: 07 December, 2015, 11:04:26 am »
a trip to Florida would answer some of the questions about the effects of weather on the attempt.

And jetlag.  ;)
Right! What's next?

Ooooh. That sounds like a daft idea.  I am in!

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #492 on: 07 December, 2015, 11:07:15 am »
That rather assumes that Steve would be constrained by a day/night schedule. Numerous riders from around the world didn't find this a problem on PBP. An interesting point for a short film in itself.

mattc

  • n.b. have grown beard since photo taken
    • Didcot Audaxes
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #493 on: 07 December, 2015, 11:30:40 am »
Internet Scepticism Trigger #58:
Any post containing "... didn't find this a problem ... "

e.g. "1939 transmissions  were clearly inferior to what is available now."
"Well Tommy Godwin didnt find this a problem when he set the record."

QED!
Has never ridden RAAM
---------
No.11  Because of the great host of those who dislike the least appearance of "swank " when they travel the roads and lanes. - From Kuklos' 39 Articles

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #494 on: 07 December, 2015, 01:25:28 pm »
The finish of a TT has obvious appeal as a subject. I've done a few 24s over the years. So Kurt's finish is something I've thought about. It would be an expensive thing to do speculatively, but I've never been to the States.

The question then arises as to how to emphasise that it's not the end of the story, with Steve still riding for more than half a year.

Chris S

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #495 on: 07 December, 2015, 01:27:53 pm »
The question then arises as to how to emphasise that it's not the end of the story, with Steve still riding for more than half a year.

Take Steve with you?  ;D

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #496 on: 07 December, 2015, 01:40:03 pm »
The Raleigh he rides is based on a US model, and they make a 'Record Ace', so there's a potential tie-in there.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #497 on: 07 December, 2015, 10:51:13 pm »
It makes a lot of sense for the UMCA and Kurt for the challenge to continue, not to mention Strava. This is all assuming that all goes to plan of course.

One of the joys of Audax for me is the thought that at any time there is someone, somewhere, who's keeping the dream alive, and it doesn't matter to me what country that is happening in.

That's the appeal of the One Year Time Trial to me, it's a pinnacle of that idea of audacity. So passing on that baton would be a critical moment. The ideal would be to record the moment of passing the current record, and the passing of the year.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #498 on: 08 December, 2015, 07:03:58 am »
You forgot to say in Marsh Gibbon of course.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #499 on: 08 December, 2015, 01:24:34 pm »
I'm pleased to see that the mileage graph seems to show a point of inflection a few days back, that is, downward trend is now slowing. Hopefully this means that it won't be too long before Steve will be averaging enough miles a day to begin catching up some of the lost ground.