Author Topic: Current thoughts on the record attempt?  (Read 119443 times)

Justin(e)

  • On my way out of here
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #25 on: May 24, 2015, 03:31:49 pm »
So the required is almost a 400km each day, with a 400km recovery ride the next day no recovery ride, and repeat...  Mind is boggling again.

Go Steve!

Go Steve indeed.

BUT ...
I really don't think it is constructive to speculate on an average of 400km/day for the rest of the year. 
Some day - perhaps in my lifetime - we'll see a sub 2hr marathon.  But this is the sub 1:50 equivalent.  Possible to maintain the pace for a couple of days but not humanely possible to keep up through summer, autumn and winter.

Matching Tommy Goodwin is pretty superhuman.  Shading the record is possible and probable if all things went well.  But smashing it to smithereens, is just not on the cards.  Some sanity please.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #26 on: May 24, 2015, 04:57:45 pm »
To hell with sanity. Many of humanity's greatest achievements have been completed by flying in the face of sanity. We'll only know if someone can achieve the seemingly impossible by giving it a decent go.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #27 on: May 24, 2015, 05:05:06 pm »
So the required is almost a 400km each day, with a 400km recovery ride the next day no recovery ride, and repeat...  Mind is boggling again.

Go Steve!

Go Steve indeed.

BUT ...
I really don't think it is constructive to speculate on an average of 400km/day for the rest of the year. 
Some day - perhaps in my lifetime - we'll see a sub 2hr marathon.  But this is the sub 1:50 equivalent.  Possible to maintain the pace for a couple of days but not humanely possible to keep up through summer, autumn and winter.

Matching Tommy Goodwin is pretty superhuman.  Shading the record is possible and probable if all things went well.  But smashing it to smithereens, is just not on the cards.  Some sanity please.

Interesting that you're so confident it's only possible to maintain an average over 400km/day for a couple of days. Tommy Godwin managed it for a couple of months straight in June and July - and even though his mileage fell off in August and September, that only dropped his 4-month average to 399.5km/day.

(In fact, a 308 mile day on May 31st tips his 123 day average back over the 400km mark - at 400.3 - astonishing.)

Tommy Godwin daily average
June 1939: 255.37 miles/411km
July 1939: 276.87 miles/445km
August 1939: 237.65 miles/382km
September 1939: 222.47 miles/358km

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #28 on: May 26, 2015, 01:41:07 pm »
Quote
Miles is clearly insane and I just don't think any human is capable of doing what he's trying to do for 365 days without their body breaking down at some point.

Partially collapsed lung and chest infection. The body cannae take any more cap'n. GWS.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #29 on: May 26, 2015, 08:38:08 pm »
A point that seems to be getting forgotten is that Tommy Godwin was a 29yr old full time rider and racer in his prime; it is almost dismissive of his efforts to think that a couple of 50yr olds are competing at the same level of potential performance (not very well put but someone will understand I hope), even if endurance riders do hit their peak later in life than short distance riders (and on that score it is also interesting to note the extremely tender ages of some of the pioneering french diagonalists).

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #30 on: May 27, 2015, 11:11:35 am »
Steve isn't 50, but I definitely do take your point.

The 'bounce back' ability of a 29-year-old is far greater than someone over 40.
<i>Marmite slave</i>

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #31 on: May 28, 2015, 06:44:09 pm »
With the recent progress that Steve has made are we likely to see the start of a concurrent record attempt shortly?

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #32 on: May 28, 2015, 06:58:37 pm »
I'd not rule out a concurrent attempt starting 1st of July or August.  looking at Steve's lower target for June was 265 miles per day with July being 285 per day.  I doubt he would wish to start before he was up to speed (so to speak) on that basis
none of us doubt he will choose the best timing mindful of his proven track record!
G O    S T E V E

 :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:-

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #33 on: May 28, 2015, 07:00:27 pm »
ps  which 400 or 600 is he doing this weekend for PBP ???

wilkyboy

  • "nick" by any other name
    • 16-inch wheels
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #34 on: May 28, 2015, 08:14:24 pm »
ps  which 400 or 600 is he doing this weekend for PBP ???

Steve's already qualified: Asparagus & Strawberries 400 (trice) and The Flatlands 600 (upright with crutches) on consecutive weekends two weeks ago.  He re-rode The Flatlands last weekend for fun (upright without crutches)   :thumbsup:

I've no idea what he's riding this weekend.
Back on the single-RRTY treadmill, whew! :)  LEL-ahoy — X32

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #35 on: May 28, 2015, 08:16:20 pm »
Riding the same event twice doesn't count. I make it that he has ridden 200, 400 and 600 qualifiers so far, so missing a 300+ BRM.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

wilkyboy

  • "nick" by any other name
    • 16-inch wheels
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #36 on: May 28, 2015, 08:17:51 pm »
Riding the same event twice doesn't count. I make it that he has ridden 200, 400 and 600 qualifiers so far.

Ah, my bad: I forgot he was a 300 short.  Surely they'll let him ride anyway as a multiple ancien?
Back on the single-RRTY treadmill, whew! :)  LEL-ahoy — X32

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #37 on: May 28, 2015, 08:19:12 pm »
That is not a given. Hopefully he is looking at doing another qualifier, to do it properly.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #38 on: May 28, 2015, 08:26:19 pm »
Steve isn't 50, but I definitely do take your point.

The 'bounce back' ability of a 29-year-old is far greater than someone over 40.

Yes and I was thinking more of the two vénérables than of Steve who has demonstrated awesome rebound characteristics (although even there there is a logic to vets starting at 40).

Hillbilly

  • AUK4922
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #39 on: May 30, 2015, 09:51:39 pm »
As Steve's recovery comes on leaps and bounds, will we soon be speaking about his Second current attempt?

Tim Hall

  • Bright are the stars that shine Dark is the sky
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #40 on: May 30, 2015, 10:50:34 pm »
Idle back of envelope sums:

Steve's miles to date : 22279

That's more or less at the end of May

Looking at his published schedules, going with the 82835 first, June to December is scheduled to be 52285.  Add that to the mileage so far gives 74564, which is a shade under the 75065.

If we use the figures from the higher 87129 schedule, June to September is 54480. Add the mileage so far takes us to 76759.

Have I missed anything?
There are two ways you can get exercise out of a bicycle: you can
"overhaul" it, or you can ride it.  (Jerome K Jerome)

Hillbilly

  • AUK4922
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #41 on: May 31, 2015, 06:34:32 am »
Looks in line with what jo's chart is suggesting.

Of course, both are just projections. It is possible Steve could force himself to ride further distances than originally planned when is gets to the back end of 2015.

Every day that Steve posts a sub 200 mile day, it is a large chunk out of his prospects of achieving Tommy's high water mark.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #42 on: May 31, 2015, 08:31:29 am »
I'm just calculating Steve's daily required average for the rest of 2015 which is approaching 245miles

Kurt is piling in big rides right now but his required average is currently 208 against his ridden average of 201 so at this pace it will still be a couple of weeks before he is level with Tommy

red marley

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #43 on: May 31, 2015, 08:34:45 am »
In case you missed it, the OYTT chart page always shows the required daily average figure for each rider. It's at the bottom of the page in the column 'Min target (mpd)'.

Tim Hall

  • Bright are the stars that shine Dark is the sky
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #44 on: May 31, 2015, 09:50:07 am »
In case you missed it, the OYTT chart page always shows the required daily average figure for each rider. It's at the bottom of the page in the column 'Min target (mpd)'.
Yes I had missed it.  Thanks for poiting it out. (and thanks for all the visualisation goodness).
There are two ways you can get exercise out of a bicycle: you can
"overhaul" it, or you can ride it.  (Jerome K Jerome)

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #45 on: May 31, 2015, 10:03:48 am »
excellent job thanks jo  :thumbsup:

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #46 on: May 31, 2015, 11:15:40 am »
So atm for the 2015 attempt Steve requires ~37mls or 60km/day more than Kurt's current projected min 207mls/day ~20mls/day more than TG's min of 225mls/day at this stage...
"an inordinate fondness for beetles"

recumbentim

  • Only 6 SR,s No hyper yet
Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #47 on: June 01, 2015, 04:51:24 pm »
Thanks Jo and the most astounding thing to me is Kurt's average 17.6 overall . I know he uses a recumbent and must do flat loops but ??

LMT

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #48 on: June 01, 2015, 07:06:59 pm »
Steve and his team need to make the distinction between the 'Tommy Godwin' record and the Ham'r. Once you do that everything becomes clearer and then you can start on a strategy.

Re: Current thoughts on the record attempt?
« Reply #49 on: June 01, 2015, 07:34:27 pm »
The problem with that is that when Steve does achieve the first HAMR 365 day record, although it'll be magnificent in its own right it'll be overshadowed if he hasn't passed 75k miles, and doubly so if Kurt is (a) significantly ahead and/or (b) on course to surpass 75k miles himself.

The thing that staggers me is that no matter how great the achievements of all HAMR participants so far, they are still behind the average needed across the year (even if ahead of TG's 1939 progress so far).