Author Topic: It's snowing! (Read 639844 times)

Wowbagger · « **Reply #3075 on:** 07 February, 2012, 06:58:16 pm »

It seems to have stopped at -3 in Shoebury, and got a bit warmer here. Now -2.1°C.

Chris S · « **Reply #3076 on:** 07 February, 2012, 06:59:47 pm »

Quote from: Wowbagger on 07 February, 2012, 06:58:16 pm

It seems to have stopped at -3 in Shoebury, and got a bit warmer here. Now -2.1°C.

You may find it's clouding over. There's some decaying shower activity in the North Sea that may give some flurries later.

Canardly · « **Reply #3077 on:** 07 February, 2012, 07:11:07 pm »

Coldest night of the year due apparently forecast -10C here.

Cudzoziemiec · « **Reply #3078 on:** 07 February, 2012, 09:15:16 pm »

Quote from: Chris S on 07 February, 2012, 05:31:41 pm

Quote from: Wowbagger on 07 February, 2012, 05:27:15 pm
I will say that I've been very impressed with the Met Office's forecasting over the past few days. It's snowed when they said it would, the fog has come and gone at the right time, and their wish seems to be the temperature's command. Is it easier to get it right when it's a cold easterly?

No - it's much harder. I think it's just luck. The Easterly has clearly returned; the air is much drier and the temperature has been falling all day. Looks to be well below freezing out there now (checks) - ah yes, Wattisham reporting -4c currently (and it's only 17:30).

I don't know anything about this, but I do remember hearing that one of the advantages many weather forecasters in continental Europe and much of America have over those in Britain, is that because most weather patterns come from the west, they have advance info from stations to the west - whereas we have only the Atlantic. Perhaps in east England you get enough info to counteract this though?

Bledlow · « **Reply #3079 on:** 07 February, 2012, 09:30:48 pm »

Nowadays there are things called ships, aircraft, & satellites to give warning.

I think our problem isn't lack of warning, but changeability. We're on a boundary between sea & land. Quite a small change in direction or intensity of a weather system rolling in from the Atlantic can make a big difference to our weather.

Chris S · « **Reply #3080 on:** 07 February, 2012, 09:50:38 pm »

We've become quite good at short-term, broad-scale forecasting. So we can say "The broad pattern will be westerly and cyclonic over the next five days" and such. We have computers, satellites and a lot of data to thank for that.

This is useful for airlines who want to know which NAT track to use to get from Europe to North America (position of the Jet Stream is key) but totally useless for Auntie Vera who wants to know if she should wear a Mac on her weekly shopping trip on Tuesday morning.

This is all fine when the natural West to East flow is working. When the (normal) balance is upset by (for example) a damn great blocking High over Siberia, the computers become quite poor at predicting anything useful beyond a couple of days.

The accuracy with which the computer models predicted last weekend's snow was quite stunning. In a trough disrupted, blocked scenario (a traditionally very hard situation to forecast) they got several things as near as dammit spot on. They forecast the exact time of the onset of snow, accurately to within 2 hours. They predicted the stalling of the progression of the mild air intrusion very well - such that areas south and east of a line from the Wash to Brighton remained below freezing all day Sunday - a key component to the forecast.

They very VERY rarely get this forecast scenario even close to reality. They out-performed themselves this time.

But I think it was luck. Another time, they'll get it completely wrong. And that's why weather forecasting is ultimately doomed - Mother Nature will always have the last laugh.

Wowbagger · « **Reply #3081 on:** 07 February, 2012, 10:08:09 pm »

This situation we have had this weekend is unprecedented in my experience: a band of snow which has approached SE England from the west and hung around for days. Normally, snow from the west is the front of the warm air meeting the cold and dominating it. If we're going to get snow which lasts, it's almost invariably from the east or north-east. 1963, 1970-71, 1980-81, 1987 were all hard winters in Essex and were all as a result of an easterly airstream which hung around for days and, occasionally, weeks.

Paul D · « **Reply #3082 on:** 08 February, 2012, 12:15:08 pm »

Quote from: interzen on 07 February, 2012, 01:47:42 pm

Scarily enough, the Strathpuffer is on my 'to do' list for (possibly) next year ...

It's been on my list for the last couple of years, but without much enthusiasm as it's the other side of the world from me in Dorset.

Want to put a (YACF) team entry in for 2013? I can probably rope in at least a 3rd ~~loony~~ team member. Probably a discussion for a separate thread.

TimO · « **Reply #3083 on:** 08 February, 2012, 01:47:11 pm »

It was very very lightly snowing on my way in this morning, more so in Croydon than once I got nearer to South Ken.

PaulF · « **Reply #3084 on:** 08 February, 2012, 01:57:51 pm »

Quote from: Paul D on 08 February, 2012, 12:15:08 pm

Quote from: interzen on 07 February, 2012, 01:47:42 pm
Scarily enough, the Strathpuffer is on my 'to do' list for (possibly) next year ...

It's been on my list for the last couple of years, but without much enthusiasm as it's the other side of the world from me in Dorset.

Want to put a (YACF) team entry in for 2013? I can probably rope in at least a 3rd ~~loony~~ team member. Probably a discussion for a separate thread.

Does sound suitably barmy. Pencil me in as 'curious'

spesh · « **Reply #3085 on:** 09 February, 2012, 11:07:49 pm »

Looks like it's finally condescended to sprinkle a bit of SNO in ~~Mos Eisley Spaceport~~ Pompey.

Which means that for anyone north of Waterlooville, the SNOpocalypse must be at hand...

Jurek · « **Reply #3086 on:** 09 February, 2012, 11:12:55 pm »

It has been giving it some, here in SE Londres for at least couple of hours.

But the 2.2°C displayed on the thermometer says it is unlikely to settle on anything other than the cars.

Jaded · « **Reply #3087 on:** 09 February, 2012, 11:15:05 pm »

We has whiteness everywhere here

her_welshness · « **Reply #3088 on:** 09 February, 2012, 11:17:37 pm »

Am staying with my sister in east sheen and it's been snowing here for at least three hours.

nicknack · « **Reply #3089 on:** 09 February, 2012, 11:30:44 pm »

It hasn't made it to my bit of North Kent yet - thank goodness.

Kim · « **Reply #3090 on:** 09 February, 2012, 11:42:01 pm »

It seems to have avoided us yet again. Bored now.

Sergeant Pluck · « **Reply #3091 on:** 09 February, 2012, 11:48:45 pm »

Quote from: her_welshness on 09 February, 2012, 11:17:37 pm

Am staying with my sister in east sheen and it's been snowing here for at least three hours.

I'm not too far from there and wondering if the tube (Kew Gardens) will work tomorrow. Not riding as I don't have the studded tyres on and, more so, I have a stinker of a cold.

Bledlow · « **Reply #3092 on:** 09 February, 2012, 11:49:40 pm »

Kim:
You can have ours if you like. Been snowing lightly on & off for 6 hours. It's nice & wet, & started out melting on the roads before settling. A small drop in temperature & we'll have sheets of ice everywhere.

border-rider · « **Reply #3093 on:** 10 February, 2012, 12:02:24 am »

just raining here at the mo. We may catch the edge of it in a few hours.

TimO · « **Reply #3094 on:** 10 February, 2012, 12:29:27 am »

I just cycled home, and it was lightly snowing the entire way. It has been settling everywhere but the roads, I'd guess because of the metric shitload of grit that they've been pouring onto the roads every night for the last week or so.

Most of the footways, cyclepaths, grass, car etc have settled snow on them (not that it slowed me in the slightest on Vince with his studded tyres), but the roads were almost entirely clear.

It's also not really all that cold either, and I met Kai outside when I got home. He came in briefly to ensure that my skills at opening tins were still adequate, before going back out of the cat flap back into the slightly whiter back garden.

nightrider · « **Reply #3095 on:** 10 February, 2012, 03:58:44 am »

Another good covering here.Its getting boring now.

rafletcher · « **Reply #3096 on:** 10 February, 2012, 07:44:34 am »

Seems to vary around here, some 3" in Oxford, down to around 1" around Hemel. But all major roads running fine, you just have to be careful turning onto the minor ones. And the car park at work is ploughed again (though not yet salted). The benefits of a Swedish employer perhaps?

Aidan · « **Reply #3097 on:** 10 February, 2012, 07:45:20 am »

We had loads last night, roads are awful this morning . The main road to York has been shut because of ice and accidents. I've postponed my meeting in York this morning

numbnuts · « **Reply #3098 on:** 10 February, 2012, 09:10:29 am »

we had snow....about 2mm

Notsototalnewbie · « **Reply #3099 on:** 10 February, 2012, 09:28:30 am »

Roads from Stockwell to Central Londonton were absolutely fine, I had no trouble cycling.

Author Topic: It's snowing! (Read 639844 times)

Chris S

Chris S

border-rider