A wee bit too simple, though the coffee-cup analogy is OK. The nullschool.net site gives a far better picture of what's really happening, though. If you take it up to 250 hPa it's even more emphatic.
One thing I have found is that the forecast average wind speed is pretty well what you get with the "Sfc" parameter for height, while the 850 hPa value is close to gusting speed. My private theory is that turbulence causes the higher airstream to dip, causing the gusts, but that could be completely wrong.