Author Topic: Coronavirus and Audax  (Read 90055 times)

quixoticgeek

  • Mostly Harmless
Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #100 on: 14 March, 2020, 04:43:52 pm »
^this

Your audax points arent, perhaps, as important as you might think they are

I think it would be a good time for AUK to suspend RRtY. It will stop people taking unnecessary risks...

J
--
Beer, bikes, and backpacking
http://b.42q.eu/

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #101 on: 14 March, 2020, 04:45:48 pm »
In some respects RRTY is less of an issue. Especially if you take your own packed lunch.

I think itll all be academic in a week or two, anyway.

bludger

  • Randonneur and bargain hunter
Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #102 on: 14 March, 2020, 05:13:33 pm »

One of the things to consider. How would you feel in x weeks time when you find out that someone's gran died, and vector/contact tracing puts you on the transmission path. As an event organiser, that's a lot of people "because of you".

J
It would not have been because of the organiser. This is an illness and everyone is doing the best they can. Would you apply the same reasoning to someone who contracted seasonal flu from an audax to their granny? What about someone being killed by a motorist on an audax, is that the organisers fault too?
YACF touring/audax bargain basement:
https://bit.ly/2Xg8pRD



Ban cars.

Jaded

  • The Codfather
  • Formerly known as Jaded
Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #103 on: 14 March, 2020, 05:18:32 pm »

One of the things to consider. How would you feel in x weeks time when you find out that someone's gran died, and vector/contact tracing puts you on the transmission path. As an event organiser, that's a lot of people "because of you".

J
It would not have been because of the organiser. This is an illness and everyone is doing the best they can. Would you apply the same reasoning to someone who contracted seasonal flu from an audax to their granny? What about someone being killed by a motorist on an audax, is that the organisers fault too?

It wouldn’t be their fault, but there could be some level of culpability, depending on the risk assessment.
It is simpler than it looks.

Davef

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #104 on: 14 March, 2020, 05:20:43 pm »
As I said way back up the thread, postal start and finish. Staggered start. No set cafe controls. Perhaps reduced max field size. If it is deemed necessary to close cafes and pubs and restaurants that will happen. Whether you get to them by bike or car or on foot should not really matter. I also totally respect the decisions whether organisers choose to adjust, postpone or cancel. Cycling is a non contact outdoor activity in small groups or alone.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #105 on: 14 March, 2020, 05:35:01 pm »
Maybe, just maybe, it is time to stop thinking about yourself.

Maybe it is time to start thinking about the people on the sharp end of this. The people who end up being hospitalised, and the staff who will inevitably have to leave many of them to die.

Maybe it's time for you to think what you can do to guarantee that you dont make the situation worse.

The people who will be dying in mid-April already have the virus, but they dont know it yet. Think about that.

bludger

  • Randonneur and bargain hunter
Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #106 on: 14 March, 2020, 05:39:12 pm »
Maybe, just maybe, it's time for you to stop telling everyone to ignore the national strategy to manage the problem and to stop stoking fear and guilt onto people for absolutely no good reason. Holding an organiser liable for the impact of a worldwide illness is barmy.
YACF touring/audax bargain basement:
https://bit.ly/2Xg8pRD



Ban cars.

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #107 on: 14 March, 2020, 05:47:27 pm »
Im not holding an organiser liable. But, as per AUK directive, they might have to choose to cancel if they cant operate safely.

 Let's review this in a week and see where we are.

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #108 on: 14 March, 2020, 05:49:23 pm »
The Sport England message is quite subtle in saying you *can* go ahead with events, and that people *should exercise*, but it avoids saying going ahead with events is good (or even neutral) or that cancelling them is bad, or that observing good hygiene mitigates any risk.


Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #109 on: 14 March, 2020, 05:59:58 pm »
Maybe, just maybe, it's time for you to stop telling everyone to ignore the national strategy to manage the problem and to stop stoking fear and guilt onto people for absolutely no good reason. Holding an organiser liable for the impact of a worldwide illness is barmy.

The national strategy risks dissolving into chaos as the number requiring ICU care escalates. The current guidance is unllikely to slow transmission significantly - even a 20% reduction in the peak (as per press conference on Thursday) means 10m people ill together somewhere between the middle of May and end of June. It's transmitting faster than the various models I've looked at have suggested and we keep bringing the peak dates forward. Unless planned steps are taken fairly rapidly, we will be into a complete horror show I fear.

FWIW, my brother had a work colleague turn up on Thursday, cough all over everyone despite his son having recently returned from northern Italy and colleague has now been confirmed to have Covid-19. My brother is in a vulnerable group and his spouse is severely immuno-compromised - I think a bit more thought and consideration would have been good.

Separately, my wife needs some tests and is booked in at the end of March. I will not be surprised if they are cancelled. That could have very serious consequences too.

There are plenty of vulnerable people on here to, so let's give a bit of care and try and get beyond the governments guidelines - that appear likely to change imminently in any case. Planning on the hoof so to speak, but not really confidence inspiring.

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #110 on: 14 March, 2020, 06:02:36 pm »
Oh, in terms of pace. We expected official cases to hit 1,000 tomorrow, not today. We know these are undercounted due to the limited testing etc. That will now get worse as testing will cease for the majority of cases, so we won't have good information.

None of this is aligned with WHO guidance.

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #111 on: 14 March, 2020, 06:04:37 pm »
Doubling time is now 2 days

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #112 on: 14 March, 2020, 06:20:23 pm »
Doubling time is now 2 days

Possibly. It's actually still somewhat uncertain as the level of testing is too low for clarity. PLus, the confirmed cases date from 3 to 7/9 days ealier infection.

Whatever, it's very transmissible/reproducible and has high levels of risk for vulnerable individuals at the very least, together with lower, but non-zero, risk levels for the rest.

S2L

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #113 on: 14 March, 2020, 06:41:43 pm »
I have decided to draw a line on all the events I have signed up for this year and take an Audax gap year.. if I get any money back fine, otherwise it doesn't matter, it's probably less than a 100 quid all in. I'll do something different, try to build up more power and lose a bit of weight instead of logging endless slow miles...

Davef

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #114 on: 14 March, 2020, 06:49:06 pm »
Maybe, just maybe, it is time to stop thinking about yourself.

Maybe it's time for you to think what you can do to guarantee that you dont make the situation worse.
Was that aimed at me ? I am considering carefully what I do. I consider cycling to be low risk. I have drastically reduced working for the time being because I consider that higher risk so I have a bit of time on my hands. I myself would doubtless be fine but other family members would not. I am also using cafes where there is outside seating as the people running the cafes depend on that income. I have adjusted my behaviour in line with what I am told both publicly and privately. Thank you for your words of advice.


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hellymedic

  • Just do it!
Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #115 on: 14 March, 2020, 07:24:03 pm »
My personal opinion is that Boris' inertia is dangerously complacent.

Anyone can get some statisticians to support their side of the argument.

Many people better-qualified than me are reducing at least some of their social activities.

I am over 60, as are many of my friends. Most of us have 'underlying health conditions' but I don't see myself as 'old'.

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #116 on: 14 March, 2020, 08:30:39 pm »
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/

-All over 70s to be put in lockdown, at home, in next few weeks...for 4 months

-Closure of pubs, bars and restaurants - some time after next weekend's ban on mass gatherings

Not sure if I need to spell it out anymore, do I?


Martin

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #117 on: 14 March, 2020, 09:19:06 pm »
I've returned from Mallorca this evening; the island is shutting down today all the bars and restaurants have closed we met a lady who's been sent home from work unpaid for at least 2 weeks. The airport will probably close Monday ( we weren't even allowed to pay the shuttle bus driver it was free)

They have 18 cases on the island...

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #118 on: 14 March, 2020, 09:25:58 pm »
I've returned from Mallorca this evening; the island is shutting down today all the bars and restaurants have closed we met a lady who's been sent home from work unpaid for at least 2 weeks. The airport will probably close Monday ( we weren't even allowed to pay the shuttle bus driver it was free)

They have 18 cases on the island...


Apparently Benidorm  https://twitter.com/privowen/status/1238916943802961920?s=20
Not fast & rarely furious

tweeting occasional in(s)anities as andrewxclark

Cudzoziemiec

  • Ride adventurously and stop for a brew.
Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #119 on: 14 March, 2020, 09:51:50 pm »
I've returned from Mallorca this evening; the island is shutting down today all the bars and restaurants have closed we met a lady who's been sent home from work unpaid for at least 2 weeks. The airport will probably close Monday ( we weren't even allowed to pay the shuttle bus driver it was free)

They have 18 cases on the island...


Apparently Benidorm  https://twitter.com/privowen/status/1238916943802961920?s=20
Interesting that the English voice sounds rather British but makes clearly non-native grammatical mistakes (eg "stay a safe distance with..."). Okay, maybe it's not really that interesting but it's probably better than depressing yourself with viral doom.
Riding a concrete path through the nebulous and chaotic future.

vorsprung

  • Opposites Attract
    • Audaxing
Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #120 on: 14 March, 2020, 10:42:51 pm »
Maybe, just maybe, it's time for you to stop telling everyone to ignore the national strategy to manage the problem and to stop stoking fear and guilt onto people for absolutely no good reason. Holding an organiser liable for the impact of a worldwide illness is barmy.

Flatus might be a little more blunt about this than is strictly necessary but he is right

AUK is saying - basically - keep calm and carry on - because that's what everyone else in the UK is doing

Leaving it up to riders to stay at home if they feel a bit peaky isn't a strong preventative measure.  But to be fair to AUK - this is simply reflecting current public policy in the UK

It is irrelevant that AUK riders are fit.  It is irrelevant that most of the action is on the road no where near other people.  Any gathering, anywhere, of anyone means the rate of infection will increase

AUK advice will change in the next few days/weeks, as will that of the government

bludger

  • Randonneur and bargain hunter
Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #121 on: 14 March, 2020, 10:56:24 pm »
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/

-All over 70s to be put in lockdown, at home, in next few weeks...for 4 months

-Closure of pubs, bars and restaurants - some time after next weekend's ban on mass gatherings

Not sure if I need to spell it out anymore, do I?

I mean you don't, because you're not an epidemiologist. There is no knowing if these lockdowns will be effective in beating the disease, they could make things worse by 'squashing' it for it to come bouncing back again once the lockdown ends (which it inevitably will).

The contexts which have been most effective in managing the illness, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong, have used quarantines etc highly selectively. They use proportionate and targeted screening and testing. Taiwan has controlled 'mass events' but their definition is based on the WHO definition of an event of 1,000 people or more, against which 40-60 people starting in batches from a car park is a pretty dubious comparison. Further in the Taiwanese government advice they say that events which have a distance between participants of a metre or more, and are outside, the risk is low. See https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/Detail/yAhL46r86lz1uIi4r2DqSQ?typeid=158 for their full large scale public gathering guidance. And https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-best-response.html?auth=login-google for an excellent write-up of the effectiveness of the Singaporean, Hong Kong and Taiwanese management plans.
YACF touring/audax bargain basement:
https://bit.ly/2Xg8pRD



Ban cars.

simonp

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #122 on: 14 March, 2020, 11:02:42 pm »
Korea have done about 10x as much testing per capita as the uk. We’re just not bothering by comparison. If we’re not using testing to prevent them we’d need a lot more social distancing.

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #123 on: 14 March, 2020, 11:04:42 pm »
^ Exactly.

Re: Coronavirus and Audax
« Reply #124 on: 14 March, 2020, 11:05:48 pm »
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/

-All over 70s to be put in lockdown, at home, in next few weeks...for 4 months

-Closure of pubs, bars and restaurants - some time after next weekend's ban on mass gatherings

Not sure if I need to spell it out anymore, do I?

I mean you don't, because you're not an epidemiologist. There is no knowing if these lockdowns will be effective in beating the disease, they could make things worse by 'squashing' it for it to come bouncing back again once the lockdown ends (which it inevitably will).

The contexts which have been most effective in managing the illness, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong, have used quarantines etc highly selectively. They use proportionate and targeted screening and testing. Taiwan has controlled 'mass events' but their definition is based on the WHO definition of an event of 1,000 people or more, against which 40-60 people starting in batches from a car park is a pretty dubious comparison. Further in the Taiwanese government advice they say that events which have a distance between participants of a metre or more, and are outside, the risk is low. See https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/Detail/yAhL46r86lz1uIi4r2DqSQ?typeid=158 for their full large scale public gathering guidance. And https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-best-response.html?auth=login-google for an excellent write-up of the effectiveness of the Singaporean, Hong Kong and Taiwanese management plans
.

Sorry. You arent an epidemiologist.