COVID19 and Audax UK

[rob]

Currently all tt are suspended till at least the 5th of july, it seeme like half the country ( England)  they are expecting some big change to happen on the 4th of july!

Club TTs to 5th July.  Opens for an extra couple of weeks.  Both dates to be reviewed after 4th July.

CTT have issued detailed guidance and risk assessments that explain how they expect TTs to be run should they be able to and if the organiser is willing.

This is what you might call a roadmap for a return to racing, albeit with some caveats. 

[FifeingEejit]

...
Same, I've been specifically thinking about how Hostels can operate shared spaces, and the follow up to that for hiking clubs using huts and hostels.
I came to the conclusion that it's likely to be "phase 4" in Scottish parlance; and that's nae gonae be this year.
Ach weel at least we can sit oot in the pairk an enjoy the haar fae thirsday....

Nothing to do with Audax; but given how much dosh our YHA (& SYHA?) make from group bookings, they would seem nae trouble quite feasible for family groups. Same with bothys or small club huts. [Just leave a week between bookings, basically.]

Hostels with Ensuite private room capacity should be able to operate to some level; problem is, that's not a lot of them and not very many rooms.
There's still then the problem of shared kitchens and dining areas which potentially cuts things down to one group at a time.

The problem with larger groups is they tend to be multi-household and therefore the 2m rule and needing to deep clean everything...
Same goes for club huts although running them as private lets for families is possibly feasible they're not necessarily covered for that by regs and insurance.

It's bad enough having to wipe down the office every evening to meet teh rulez.

Bothies are potentially fucked, land owners are pissed off enough at people wandering through working areas, fly camping is making things worse and when it comes to using the bothies, they're starting to get locked by the owners.
This all sets back land access rights which has been a delicate balance in some places already...

But aye way off audax now; was really just to highlight the feasibility of longer distance rides with shared facilities at controls.

I cannot find any details on either the Scottish or UK websites about long distance travelling or indeed traveling around the UK and not in 'bubbles'. Can you please supply any references about this as it will be a minority subject. All I can find is stay at home and stay in bubbles. I can not find anything to support the idea that long distance cycling will be allowed, let along organised or encouraged. The CTT advice is very strange as all events are sanctioned by the police and there is advice to check that they still support events sanctioned.

Maybe this just my reading of the advice, but when camp sites will only under strict restrictions be able to operate showers I find it hard to see how long distance traveling and stopping to eat and drink will be supported.

"Stay Local" disappears at Phase 3 in Scotland (there would be feck all point accommodation providers opening if that stayed in place); in England you can go as far in England as you want as long as you can get home and don't need to stop for the bog.

"Glen Coe" ski centre have halved the number of lodges and camping pitches they'll have open.
This also indicates that shared ablutions will be open, or Scot Loo* are getting a big order for installing extra facilities..

* Other purveyors of temporary cludgie facilities are available.

[Bianchi Boy]

All this been said the rate in the UK population is now (according to the latest figures) down to 1 in 1600 people and if you are fit and healthy and do not have any of the risk factors like diabetes then risk of death from infection does not rise until you are over 70. There have been rare and highly publicised cases of young people been made very ill with Corvid-19, but more under 21s have died with electrical accidents since the lock down than with Corvid-19.

If this happens next year there will have to be a very hard discussion about risk because we will not be able to afford the NHS as the economy and national debt will be in such a state if we do lock down again.

To come back to audax and the whole traveling and risk thing. For the people involved in say LEJOG there is no extra risk. The lock down has not been done for these people, it has been so the NHS does not get overwhelmed with people over 70 becoming ill. This is all about the bubble and can you effectively be in one when you ride and sleep overnight in an Audax style. Sort of depends what the authorities think and what the appetite for risk is, which currently looks like zero. Which is OK if a vaccine is produced, but if not we will be in this for years.

BB 

[Bianchi Boy]

Point of order: TTs do not require police approval, they have an automatic right to happen as long as the police are informed with a legal minimum notice period.

Unless things have changed since I was involved in TTs all courses are risk assessed and the routes are submitted to the police. Some busy roads had to to car counted and this would be considered and the course withdrawn or only allowed to run at certain times. So if the course is approved and the risk assessment accepted and the police have no objection because of perceived danger to riders or the public or the time or date, then yes they will be allowed to run.

BB   

[FifeingEejit]

There's 2 elements to the travel
1) is not spreading it about the island which is where your argument about most demographic groups having v. Low risk of death fails a bit as we still don't fully understand asymptomatic transmission or length of contact required to transmit.
The later is why we're still encouraged to minimize how often we shop

2) is about how health care is provisioned and funded.
If you were to come off your bike on oh say the Berriedale braes, there's a provisioning problem because you have to be got to Inverness, normally that's not too bad, either an ambulance appears from wick and takes you south or one of the 4 helicopters turns up.
Problem is, the crews are socially distancing and ppe'ed to the hilt, whys this a problem? It slows response time down.
People will die and will have died because of slower emergency response due to infection control.
The funding is a bit more interesting. (this isn't 100% but is my understanding of it), it's based on population with some uplift for tourists, sort of. Its not a direct problem because of you turn up at raigmore with an NHS number, you get a Chi and a bill gets sent to the appropriate Trust, if I turn up, some sort of jigger poker goes on and Fife somehow pay for it.
The problem is there's only enough beds for locals and a handful of tourists based on a balance of acceptable care and affordable care, then there's the elephant in the room.
Theaters, wards and recovery rooms have been turned into sub-hospitals to cover for patients turning up with covid, that's not just patients with breathing problems etc, that's patients turning up with sprained ankles, broken legs etc.
And for as long as we care about trying to avoid hospital acquired sars-cov-2 that's going to have to remain the case.

Also if 1 in 16000 are estimated to curently have Sara cov 2 on them, that's 40.5k people UK wide.

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[Karla]

Point of order: TTs do not require police approval, they have an automatic right to happen as long as the police are informed with a legal minimum notice period.

Unless things have changed since I was involved in TTs all courses are risk assessed and the routes are submitted to the police. Some busy roads had to to car counted and this would be considered and the course withdrawn or only allowed to run at certain times. So if the course is approved and the risk assessment accepted and the police have no objection because of perceived danger to riders or the public or the time or date, then yes they will be allowed to run.

BB

You're misremembering.  Risk assessments and traffic counts are purely internal measures; the latter were introduced for sporting rather than safety reasons, though they're now regarded as having a safety element.  Police do not need to give permission for a TT to be run on a road, they only need to be notified that it will run whether they like it or not.  This has been the case since well before your racing time - unless you happen to date back to the 19th century.  If you remember the police giving permission, you remember wrong. 

[Davef]

Also if 1 in 16000 are estimated to curently have Sara cov 2 on them, that's 40.5k people UK wide.

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16,000 x 40,500 = 648,000,000

You either have an extra zero somewhere or illegal immigration was higher than reported.

Edit: on reading the previous post I see it was meant to be 1 in 1600.

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[Davef]

There's 2 elements to the travel
1) is not spreading it about the island which is where your argument about most demographic groups having v. Low risk of death fails a bit as we still don't fully understand asymptomatic transmission or length of contact required to transmit.
The later is why we're still encouraged to minimize how often we shop

2) is about how health care is provisioned and funded.
If you were to come off your bike on oh say the Berriedale braes, there's a provisioning problem because you have to be got to Inverness, normally that's not too bad, either an ambulance appears from wick and takes you south or one of the 4 helicopters turns up.
Problem is, the crews are socially distancing and ppe'ed to the hilt, whys this a problem? It slows response time down.
People will die and will have died because of slower emergency response due to infection control.
The funding is a bit more interesting. (this isn't 100% but is my understanding of it), it's based on population with some uplift for tourists, sort of. Its not a direct problem because of you turn up at raigmore with an NHS number, you get a Chi and a bill gets sent to the appropriate Trust, if I turn up, some sort of jigger poker goes on and Fife somehow pay for it.
The problem is there's only enough beds for locals and a handful of tourists based on a balance of acceptable care and affordable care, then there's the elephant in the room.
Theaters, wards and recovery rooms have been turned into sub-hospitals to cover for patients turning up with covid, that's not just patients with breathing problems etc, that's patients turning up with sprained ankles, broken legs etc.
And for as long as we care about trying to avoid hospital acquired sars-cov-2 that's going to have to remain the case.

Also if 1 in 16000 are estimated to curently have Sara cov 2 on them, that's 40.5k people UK wide.

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Those are all good arguments against tourism but not specifically about tourism by bike. If authorities decide tourism is ok and the benefits outweigh the risks, then I would have thought that would apply to bicycle travel too.


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[FifeingEejit]

Yes hence why "the travel"

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[Frank9755]

If this happens next year there will have to be a very hard discussion about risk because we will not be able to afford the NHS as the economy and national debt will be in such a state if we do lock down again.

We will be able to afford the NHS.  We might choose not to pay for it, but that would be a political choice.

This is the chart that explains it: national debt as % of GDP has risen recently but remains low by historical levels, and would still be within the post-war range were next year to see a second wave (which seems to be the base case for government scientists now). 

[Bianchi Boy]

If this happens next year there will have to be a very hard discussion about risk because we will not be able to afford the NHS as the economy and national debt will be in such a state if we do lock down again.

We will be able to afford the NHS.  We might choose not to pay for it, but that would be a political choice.

This is the chart that explains it: national debt as % of GDP has risen recently but remains low by historical levels, and would still be within the post-war range were next year to see a second wave (which seems to be the base case for government scientists now). 

The economy will shrink by about 10% this year (but who knows) and the costs of ferloughing are not yet known. The rest of the world is doing this as well. Who knows what will happen?

[Bianchi Boy]

Also if 1 in 16000 are estimated to curently have Sara cov 2 on them, that's 40.5k people UK wide.

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16,000 x 40,500 = 648,000,000

You either have an extra zero somewhere or illegal immigration was higher than reported.

Edit: on reading the previous post I see it was meant to be 1 in 1600.

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The error is 1,600 x 40,500 = 64,800,000

Some where the 1:1600 became 16,000 in requote.

BB

[giropaul]

To come back to audax and the whole traveling and risk thing. For the people involved in say LEJOG there is no extra risk. The lock down has not been done for these people, it has been so the NHS does not get overwhelmed with people over 70 becoming ill. This is all about the bubble and can you effectively be in one when you ride and sleep overnight in an Audax style. Sort of depends what the authorities think and what the appetite for risk is, which currently looks like zero. Which is OK if a vaccine is produced, but if not we will be in this for years.

BB

The issue becomes that even if one of the participants is an asymptotic carrier, there is the possibility that any person returning from the event could “ seed” a new infection cluster.
The only model available as far as I know at the moment is the golf/ football one, where the “ bubble” of people can only leave the bubble following rigorous testing (at the organiser’s cost as far as I can ascertain).

[Bianchi Boy]

To come back to audax and the whole traveling and risk thing. For the people involved in say LEJOG there is no extra risk. The lock down has not been done for these people, it has been so the NHS does not get overwhelmed with people over 70 becoming ill. This is all about the bubble and can you effectively be in one when you ride and sleep overnight in an Audax style. Sort of depends what the authorities think and what the appetite for risk is, which currently looks like zero. Which is OK if a vaccine is produced, but if not we will be in this for years.

BB

So if that view of the bubble is accepted how on earth do we run Audax events with overnight stops?

The issue becomes that even if one of the participants is an asymptotic carrier, there is the possibility that any person returning from the event could “ seed” a new infection cluster.
The only model available as far as I know at the moment is the golf/ football one, where the “ bubble” of people can only leave the bubble following rigorous testing (at the organiser’s cost as far as I can ascertain).

[Davef]

To come back to audax and the whole traveling and risk thing. For the people involved in say LEJOG there is no extra risk. The lock down has not been done for these people, it has been so the NHS does not get overwhelmed with people over 70 becoming ill. This is all about the bubble and can you effectively be in one when you ride and sleep overnight in an Audax style. Sort of depends what the authorities think and what the appetite for risk is, which currently looks like zero. Which is OK if a vaccine is produced, but if not we will be in this for years.

BB

The issue becomes that even if one of the participants is an asymptotic carrier, there is the possibility that any person returning from the event could “ seed” a new infection cluster.
The only model available as far as I know at the moment is the golf/ football one, where the “ bubble” of people can only leave the bubble following rigorous testing (at the organiser’s cost as far as I can ascertain).

In the same way as visiting the supermarket (or zoo or vendor of soft furnishings) you could pick up an infection and”seed” a new cluster. I will assess risks nearer the time and decide whether to use provided accommodation or food (if either is still offered) and decide whether to isolate on return (something I would not bother with after a trip to the supermarket). The cycling part of audax must be one of the most risk free activities in existence from a covid point of view. It is how and to what extent you engage in the non cycling parts that could pose a risk.

People will continue to get covid-19 for months or even years to come. The infrastructure (testing, contact tracing,isolation) needs to be in place to stop infected people causing an outbreak.


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[Kim]

Caravan and Camping Club discussing their plans for reopening sites; doesn't bode well for communal accommodation like hostels, bunkhouses, bothies and village hall audax controls
https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/scotlands-camping-caravan-sites-set-18414491

The article supposedly^[1] discusses the Caravan and Motorhome Club (formerly the Caravan Club), which is a different organisation to the Camping and Caravanning Club.  This is a bit People's Front of Judea, I know, but it's important if you want to use a members-only site or camp in a tent.

C&CC have a statement detailing their COVID-19 measures here: https://www.campingandcaravanningclub.co.uk/helpandadvice/travelplanning/coronavirus/


_{[1] The quoted statements look suspiciously like those on the above page, so it's possible the author was confused, or they've heavily borrowed from each other's wording (I can't tell, the Caravan and Motorhome Club website isn't working).}

[Bianchi Boy]

Caravan and Camping Club discussing their plans for reopening sites; doesn't bode well for communal accommodation like hostels, bunkhouses, bothies and village hall audax controls
https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/scotlands-camping-caravan-sites-set-18414491

The article discusses the Caravan and Motorhome Club (formerly the Caravan Club), which is a different organisation to the Camping and Caravanning Club.  This is a bit People's Front of Judea, I know, but it's important if you want to use a members-only site or camp in a tent.

I think the point I was trying to make was that if an organised site is imposing such strict rule how can an event that has no controls or structure happen?

BB

[Kim]

I think the point I was trying to make was that if an organised site is imposing such strict rule how can an event that has no controls or structure happen?

Sure, I just thought it was prudent to flag up that there are two organisations with similar names, since their policies may differ and one of them is basically useless for cycle-campers.

[FifeingEejit]

So if that view of the bubble is accepted how on earth do we run Audax events with overnight stops?

The issue becomes that even if one of the participants is an asymptotic carrier, there is the possibility that any person returning from the event could “ seed” a new infection cluster.
The only model available as far as I know at the moment is the golf/ football one, where the “ bubble” of people can only leave the bubble following rigorous testing (at the organiser’s cost as far as I can ascertain).

I was trying to avoid saying it outright, but... I don't think it's particularly feasible.

This is why professional sports that don't socially distance by default are coming back before amateur.
At work we've been told that any reason to quarantine will need to be taken as annual leave and to discuss with line managers.
Although that's aimed at holidays, the same applies for the sports people amongst us.

Scottish Football (yes yes I know) are postponing the start of next season and shortening it by 9 games for all but the "Premier" league in the hope of avoiding restrictions on players, many are part time and have better paying jobs to go to.

In the same way as visiting the supermarket (or zoo or vendor of soft furnishings) you could pick up an infection and”seed” a new cluster. I will assess risks nearer the time and decide whether to use provided accommodation or food (if either is still offered) and decide whether to isolate on return (something I would not bother with after a trip to the supermarket). The cycling part of audax must be one of the most risk free activities in existence from a covid point of view. It is how and to what extent you engage in the non cycling parts that could pose a risk.

People will continue to get covid-19 for months or even years to come. The infrastructure (testing, contact tracing,isolation) needs to be in place to stop infected people causing an outbreak.

Viral load from brief encounters is likely to be minimal, so the supermarket etc, not too bad.
It's one of the reasons with lockdown the shift from community spread to care home and hospital wards was so noticeable.
But then patients are getting pre-screened before electives and outpatient attendances and testing positive with no symptoms so there's transmission in the wilds too.

Cycling in isloation is indeed one of the most risk free you can get, and if it does go wrong,  you can probably walk home, or if it's bad bad and need to be carted off to a nearby hospital at least there's no firemen needed to cut you out or (usually) MRT to recover you, just a paramedic and a driver needed before the ED take over.
Obviously aimed at walk ins but: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVMCvbqngpA gives an idea of what extra is involved.

It's just the split of capacity that's a problem if everyone goes nuts and demand goes back to normal.
Could be worse... could be Ne'ers...

[FifeingEejit]

Caravan and Camping Club discussing their plans for reopening sites; doesn't bode well for communal accommodation like hostels, bunkhouses, bothies and village hall audax controls
https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/scotlands-camping-caravan-sites-set-18414491

The article supposedly^[1] discusses the Caravan and Motorhome Club (formerly the Caravan Club), which is a different organisation to the Camping and Caravanning Club.  This is a bit People's Front of Judea, I know, but it's important if you want to use a members-only site or camp in a tent.

C&CC have a statement detailing their COVID-19 measures here: https://www.campingandcaravanningclub.co.uk/helpandadvice/travelplanning/coronavirus/


_{[1] The quoted statements look suspiciously like those on the above page, so it's possible the author was confused, or they've heavily borrowed from each other's wording (I can't tell, the Caravan and Motorhome Club website isn't working).}

I'm sure it said CCC* when I posted it, I jsut spotted

They will not be opening Ready Camp Safari Tents, Pods or Self-Catering units this season

That's interesting as Pods and Self-Catering units is something a lot of places are opening in lieu of anything else; guess it must be partly down to staffing as most CCC and CC sites are staffed by an old couple living in a caravan next to reception and if they're lucky, some assistants.

* This is how their membership fee appears on my Direct Debits, I'm always slightly disapointed that it's not a revival of Cars and Car Conversions

[Ajax Bay]

The cycling part of audax must be one of the most risk free activities in existence from a covid point of view. It is how and to what extent you engage in the non cycling parts that could pose a risk.
People will continue to get covid-19 for months or even years to come. The infrastructure (testing, contact tracing,isolation) needs to be in place to stop infected people causing an outbreak.

Cycling in isloation is indeed one of the most risk free you can get

I wonder what the risk of virus transmission would have been in this Tyneside Vagabonds CC Reliability Ride in '62?
https://youtu.be/6DNUIxubdGg

[frankly frankie]

So if that view of the bubble is accepted how on earth do we run Audax events with overnight stops?

I hate to break it to you but cycling very long distances need not always turn into a serial sleepover.  Some randonneurs are perfectly capable of socially-distancing their way round a 600, in fact it's their default mode 

[Solocle]

So if that view of the bubble is accepted how on earth do we run Audax events with overnight stops?

I hate to break it to you but cycling very long distances need not always turn into a serial sleepover.  Some randonneurs are perfectly capable of socially-distancing their way round a 600, in fact it's their default mode 

A bivvy bag in a bush isn't risking infecting anybody, even though overnighting away from home is currently against regulations. You could get around that by having a support car arrive to pick you up, take you home, then drive you back to the point where you stopped...

Surly it makes more sense to just carry a tent/bag with you, but them's the rules, for now.

[Redlight]

  Some randonneurs are perfectly capable of socially-distancing their way round a 600, in fact it's their default mode 

Some of us have no choice 

[Bianchi Boy]

So if that view of the bubble is accepted how on earth do we run Audax events with overnight stops?

I hate to break it to you but cycling very long distances need not always turn into a serial sleepover.  Some randonneurs are perfectly capable of socially-distancing their way round a 600, in fact it's their default mode 

A bivvy bag in a bush isn't risking infecting anybody, even though overnighting away from home is currently against regulations. You could get around that by having a support car arrive to pick you up, take you home, then drive you back to the point where you stopped...

Surly it makes more sense to just carry a tent/bag with you, but them's the rules, for now.

This encapsulates the issue, its not the riding that is the issue, it is the stopping. You also become very unhygienic on a long ride. Where is the soap and water to wash your hands? I always carry hygienic hand wipes so I can clean my hands when needed (too much detail?). As for overnighting still been an issue it will be interesting to see how hotels start to open up as this will dictate the rules for overnight stays and will be done before hostels and communal sleeping areas. I do not think people biveing solo in fields has crossed the policy makers minds.

I will comment on the support car topic, that will open another can or worms.

BB