So if that view of the bubble is accepted how on earth do we run Audax events with overnight stops?
The issue becomes that even if one of the participants is an asymptotic carrier, there is the possibility that any person returning from the event could “ seed” a new infection cluster.
The only model available as far as I know at the moment is the golf/ football one, where the “ bubble” of people can only leave the bubble following rigorous testing (at the organiser’s cost as far as I can ascertain).
I was trying to avoid saying it outright, but... I don't think it's particularly feasible.
This is why professional sports that don't socially distance by default are coming back before amateur.
At work we've been told that any reason to quarantine will need to be taken as annual leave and to discuss with line managers.
Although that's aimed at holidays, the same applies for the sports people amongst us.
Scottish Football (yes yes I know) are postponing the start of next season and shortening it by 9 games for all but the "Premier" league in the hope of avoiding restrictions on players, many are part time and have better paying jobs to go to.
In the same way as visiting the supermarket (or zoo or vendor of soft furnishings) you could pick up an infection and”seed” a new cluster. I will assess risks nearer the time and decide whether to use provided accommodation or food (if either is still offered) and decide whether to isolate on return (something I would not bother with after a trip to the supermarket). The cycling part of audax must be one of the most risk free activities in existence from a covid point of view. It is how and to what extent you engage in the non cycling parts that could pose a risk.
People will continue to get covid-19 for months or even years to come. The infrastructure (testing, contact tracing,isolation) needs to be in place to stop infected people causing an outbreak.
Viral load from brief encounters is likely to be minimal, so the supermarket etc, not too bad.
It's one of the reasons with lockdown the shift from community spread to care home and hospital wards was so noticeable.
But then patients are getting pre-screened before electives and outpatient attendances and testing positive with no symptoms so there's transmission in the wilds too.
Cycling in isloation is indeed one of the most risk free you can get, and if it does go wrong, you can probably walk home, or if it's bad bad and need to be carted off to a nearby hospital at least there's no firemen needed to cut you out or (usually) MRT to recover you, just a paramedic and a driver needed before the ED take over.
Obviously aimed at walk ins but:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVMCvbqngpA gives an idea of what extra is involved.
It's just the split of capacity that's a problem if everyone goes nuts and demand goes back to normal.
Could be worse... could be Ne'ers...