COVID19 and Audax UK

[bairn again]

I plan to do a DIY200 tomorrow, its not really going to count for much as Im not a RRTY enthusiast and Ive done other 200s this season already.  Id jump at the chance to do longer events and ideally complete a SR this season (all on a solo DIY basis which was my approach in most other non PBP years) and Im hoping that AUK will allow validation of these very soon.  In the absence of any greater detail my assumption is that they are wanting to check that “Super Saturday” passed off without incident before giving the green light to longer permanents. 

[Tomsk]

If the limit is 200km for the rest of the year, then I think I'd like to ride the route of one of my longer events in September, but as a series of 200km brevets with a civilised finish time and a night in a hotel. I wonder how this sits with AUK. If the answer is no then I'll probably ride anyway, at much the same daily distance, but as a tour ...

[tonyh]

There doesn't seem to be a limit on the number of 200 Perms you can ride, or on the length of each one. Sounds as if they might be DIYs, although based on your Perms.

(I'm ashamed to be uncertain about the rules around nights away.)

Not a very useful post... but a chance to express admiration of ACME (amongst other excellent Audax Regions of course!)

[Davef]

Whether or not it is validated there is definitely something to attempting rides to an audax standard. Without the self imposed audax rules on my recent lejog i would not have felt the same level of satisfaction finishing and may indeed have quit on day 2 after a series of unfortunate mechanicals.

[Lightning Phil]

There’s no problem with nights away unless in a local lockdown area.  Plenty of people having staycations right now throughout the UK.

[tonyh]

Thanks Phil!

[Tomsk]

There doesn't seem to be a limit on the number of 200 Perms you can ride, or on the length of each one. Sounds as if they might be DIYs, although based on your Perms.

(I'm ashamed to be uncertain about the rules around nights away.)

Not a very useful post... but a chance to express admiration of ACME (amongst other excellent Audax Regions of course!)

  Thanks for the approval Tony. There's a lot of disapproval about at the moment unfortunately.

[Bikeabilityman]

My plan for this Audax year had been to do one SR, keep my RRtY gong, and get back into TTs and racing (as if I’m fast!!). Now I’ll probably just do some DIY 200s with a food stop at home, although I have been to some local cafes that have very good Covid measures in place. I’d be happy to see the longer distances back on the menu though.

[Charco]

Interesting to see triathlon has restarted. Hopefully this bodes well for Audax events

https://www.113events.com/cotswold-classic-2020-post-race-mail/

https://www.charleswhittonphotography.com/group28112.html

[rabbit]

Crickey. I'm a bit injured at the moment so just planning next years training whilst I have the time to think about it and figured a few audaxes might be fun. I'm most surprised to see the level of restrictions still in place. 

[Delph Cyclist]

My own cautious approach is perhaps influenced by living in Greater Manchester, where Covid rates are apparently quite high and I am not allowed to visit my family, not even in the garden.  I'm very apprehensive of going out of the house at all, I worry about going to the local Co-op for the weekly shop, and there's no way I'd go to a pub or cafe.  It's beginning to feel a bit agoraphobic.  I have no argument with AUKs current policy.

That said, I'm out for a 100km Perm over the weekend.  I intend to have nothing to do with anyone at all.

[Karla]

My own cautious approach is perhaps influenced by living in Greater Manchester, where Covid rates are apparently quite high and I am not allowed to visit my family, not even in the garden.  I'm very apprehensive of going out of the house at all, I worry about going to the local Co-op for the weekly shop, and there's no way I'd go to a pub or cafe.  It's beginning to feel a bit agoraphobic.  I have no argument with AUKs current policy.

That said, I'm out for a 100km Perm over the weekend.  I intend to have nothing to do with anyone at all.

You're in Oldham aren't you?  The current infection rate there  is 66.6 per 100,000 people.    If the mortality/infection ratio is still 1%, that's 0.66 deaths per 100k people per week.

About 5 people die per day on British roads  That's 3 deaths per 100,000 people per year, or 0.06 per week.  Then again, you'll be significantly more at risk than most people, due to the number of miles you do on a bicycle, which is one of the riskier forms of transport out there.  The risks are really in the same ballpark, and if you're worried about C19, you should be equally worried about audax full stop.

[Jaded]

My own cautious approach is perhaps influenced by living in Greater Manchester, where Covid rates are apparently quite high and I am not allowed to visit my family, not even in the garden.  I'm very apprehensive of going out of the house at all, I worry about going to the local Co-op for the weekly shop, and there's no way I'd go to a pub or cafe.  It's beginning to feel a bit agoraphobic.  I have no argument with AUKs current policy.

That said, I'm out for a 100km Perm over the weekend.  I intend to have nothing to do with anyone at all.

You're in Oldham aren't you?  The current infection rate there  is 66.6 per 100,000 people.    If the mortality/infection ratio is still 1%, that's 0.66 deaths per 100k people per week.

About 5 people die per day on British roads  That's 3 deaths per 100,000 people per year, or 0.06 per week.  Then again, you'll be significantly more at risk than most people, due to the number of miles you do on a bicycle, which is one of the riskier forms of transport out there.  The risks are really in the same ballpark, and if you're worried about C19, you should be equally worried about audax full stop.

Riding a bicycle doesn't make three other people you meet ride a bicycle.

[rabbit]

It's interesting how differently people have responded to Covid.

Those who have worked through solidly, and been on the road (for work) during the lockdown, or on the frontline in healthcare that I know are the most laidback about the situation.

Those who have been furloughed and isolated seem to be those who are the most worried regarding the relaxation of lockdown.

Although most people I know are definitely moving toward being less cautious.

Just an observation really.

I had to work through the whole thing, and have been in numerous workplaces since March. I really dont worry about the consequences of riding a bike and supporting one of our desperate cafes en route. However, equally, I respect those who are cautious and I always try to keep a high level of personal hand hygiene, keep my distance and wear a mask where required.

It makes no odds to me whether I ever do an audax again, although I would like to at some point. I doubt I would be so relaxed about it if I was still a bit of an audax addict.

[Karla]

My own cautious approach is perhaps influenced by living in Greater Manchester, where Covid rates are apparently quite high and I am not allowed to visit my family, not even in the garden.  I'm very apprehensive of going out of the house at all, I worry about going to the local Co-op for the weekly shop, and there's no way I'd go to a pub or cafe.  It's beginning to feel a bit agoraphobic.  I have no argument with AUKs current policy.

That said, I'm out for a 100km Perm over the weekend.  I intend to have nothing to do with anyone at all.

You're in Oldham aren't you?  The current infection rate there  is 66.6 per 100,000 people.    If the mortality/infection ratio is still 1%, that's 0.66 deaths per 100k people per week.

About 5 people die per day on British roads  That's 3 deaths per 100,000 people per year, or 0.06 per week.  Then again, you'll be significantly more at risk than most people, due to the number of miles you do on a bicycle, which is one of the riskier forms of transport out there.  The risks are really in the same ballpark, and if you're worried about C19, you should be equally worried about audax full stop.

Riding a bicycle doesn't make three other people you meet ride a bicycle.

If you drive to an event though, you risk running someone over.  All those parcels you ordered on Amazon and Wiggle while in lockdown?  Any of the delivery trucks involved in their manufacture and supply risk running someone down too - and the victim wouldn't have died if you hadn't ordered that new stem.

At what point do you cease to be responsible for your own tiny contribution to the background level of risk? 

[Jaded]

My own cautious approach is perhaps influenced by living in Greater Manchester, where Covid rates are apparently quite high and I am not allowed to visit my family, not even in the garden.  I'm very apprehensive of going out of the house at all, I worry about going to the local Co-op for the weekly shop, and there's no way I'd go to a pub or cafe.  It's beginning to feel a bit agoraphobic.  I have no argument with AUKs current policy.

That said, I'm out for a 100km Perm over the weekend.  I intend to have nothing to do with anyone at all.

You're in Oldham aren't you?  The current infection rate there  is 66.6 per 100,000 people.    If the mortality/infection ratio is still 1%, that's 0.66 deaths per 100k people per week.

About 5 people die per day on British roads  That's 3 deaths per 100,000 people per year, or 0.06 per week.  Then again, you'll be significantly more at risk than most people, due to the number of miles you do on a bicycle, which is one of the riskier forms of transport out there.  The risks are really in the same ballpark, and if you're worried about C19, you should be equally worried about audax full stop.

Riding a bicycle doesn't make three other people you meet ride a bicycle.

If you drive to an event though, you risk running someone over.  All those parcels you ordered on Amazon and Wiggle while in lockdown?  Any of the delivery trucks involved in their manufacture and supply risk running someone down too - and the victim wouldn't have died if you hadn't ordered that new stem.

At what point do you cease to be responsible for your own tiny contribution to the background level of risk?

  Every parcel I order from Amazon means three other people order parcels 

[Davef]

Months ago I read a report on the contact tracing done in Wuhan. Of the 7487 successful attributions of infection 7486 were indoors and 1 outdoors. None involved a bicycle.

Since then I have minimised time indoors as much as possible, particularly indoors with lots of people.

Many cafes have put considerable thought into working in a covid safe way - I like the way Emberton country park cafe have rearranged so the cake counter at the front of the shop up against the window so you choose from outside.

Just saying the old normal is no longer ok is not good enough, we have to adapt to a new normal that has a reasonable balanced risk.

[Bianchi Boy]

My own cautious approach is perhaps influenced by living in Greater Manchester, where Covid rates are apparently quite high and I am not allowed to visit my family, not even in the garden.  I'm very apprehensive of going out of the house at all, I worry about going to the local Co-op for the weekly shop, and there's no way I'd go to a pub or cafe.  It's beginning to feel a bit agoraphobic.  I have no argument with AUKs current policy.

That said, I'm out for a 100km Perm over the weekend.  I intend to have nothing to do with anyone at all.

You're in Oldham aren't you?  The current infection rate there  is 66.6 per 100,000 people.    If the mortality/infection ratio is still 1%, that's 0.66 deaths per 100k people per week.

About 5 people die per day on British roads  That's 3 deaths per 100,000 people per year, or 0.06 per week.  Then again, you'll be significantly more at risk than most people, due to the number of miles you do on a bicycle, which is one of the riskier forms of transport out there.  The risks are really in the same ballpark, and if you're worried about C19, you should be equally worried about audax full stop.

Kalka you are confusing two different things, this has been common in a lot of discussions. The first is random change probability and this you have correctly attributed to the incidence of road accidents. The second causal chance that is increased with contact and the difference is that you 'cause' an increase in infections by having an incident, in random chance you do not increase the chance of other people having an accident because you have had one. It is this factor that made the spread exponential and this is highly dangerous and what happened at the start of the outbreak. So in short you are correct in your analysis of the chance of getting C-19 today if you went out, but the impact would go on for weeks and possibly cause many other cases.

By the way they think the outbreak in NY was caused by a single super sreader who they think infected as many as 200 people in a single day. Then bang thousands have and spread the virus. Now I am not saying that cycling alone on roads is a risk, but we all stop and have traveled from out locality  and the risk is not just what happens on the day.....

BB

[Davef]

There is no issue travelling non locally to an area of similar infection level. There seems to be a perception that it is like spreading flu to the aztecs (or was it mayans). I don’t believe there is anywhere on mainland Britain that has avoided covid and the infection rate is pretty constant bar from a few areas where it is higher.

You should avoid travelling to those areas because you are more likely to catch covid because more people have it. You should avoid travelling from those areas as you are more likely to have it and spread it.

[Karla]

My own cautious approach is perhaps influenced by living in Greater Manchester, where Covid rates are apparently quite high and I am not allowed to visit my family, not even in the garden.  I'm very apprehensive of going out of the house at all, I worry about going to the local Co-op for the weekly shop, and there's no way I'd go to a pub or cafe.  It's beginning to feel a bit agoraphobic.  I have no argument with AUKs current policy.

That said, I'm out for a 100km Perm over the weekend.  I intend to have nothing to do with anyone at all.

You're in Oldham aren't you?  The current infection rate there  is 66.6 per 100,000 people.    If the mortality/infection ratio is still 1%, that's 0.66 deaths per 100k people per week.

About 5 people die per day on British roads  That's 3 deaths per 100,000 people per year, or 0.06 per week.  Then again, you'll be significantly more at risk than most people, due to the number of miles you do on a bicycle, which is one of the riskier forms of transport out there.  The risks are really in the same ballpark, and if you're worried about C19, you should be equally worried about audax full stop.

Kalka you are confusing two different things, this has been common in a lot of discussions. The first is random change probability and this you have correctly attributed to the incidence of road accidents. The second causal chance that is increased with contact and the difference is that you 'cause' an increase in infections by having an incident, in random chance you do not increase the chance of other people having an accident because you have had one. It is this factor that made the spread exponential and this is highly dangerous and what happened at the start of the outbreak. So in short you are correct in your analysis of the chance of getting C-19 today if you went out, but the impact would go on for weeks and possibly cause many other cases.

By the way they think the outbreak in NY was caused by a single super sreader who they think infected as many as 200 people in a single day. Then bang thousands have and spread the virus. Now I am not saying that cycling alone on roads is a risk, but we all stop and have traveled from out locality  and the risk is not just what happens on the day.....

BB

I'm not confusing anything.  The issue you need to address, but are failing to address, is how much you are responsible for damage caused by your actions. 

There's a small chance you might die of a disease you catch because of me living my life, when I didn't know I had it.  Me merely existing puts you at risk.  Equally, your mere existence puts me at risk.  I'm not going to lose any sleep over this: I have always, throughout my entire life, stood a chance of being negatively affected due to your non-negligent actions but I'm not going to blame you for that.  Equally, I expect the same from you.

The logic of "If I do X, bad thing Y might happen to person Z" only goes so far.  At some point, person Z has to suck it up as the cost of living - otherwise I'd just have to kill myself now so I never risk breathing bad air in your face.

[rabbit]

The logic of "If I do X, bad thing Y might happen to person Z" only goes so far.  At some point, person Z has to suck it up as the cost of living - otherwise I'd just have to kill myself now so I never risk breathing bad air in your face.

Yup. This 

[Ajax Bay]

Bring it back to basics and managing the additional risk of spreading or being infected by COVID-19 virus while engaged in an Audax UK sanctioned event, and let's keep this to Perms/DIYs at this stage - acknowledging nevertheless that calendar events are at the heart of worldwide cycle randonneuring.
General
Do not travel/ride/leave home if you think you might have COVID-19 (variety of rationales for such a judgement, well documented)
Outdoors
Other cyclists:
*  in group: no groups of more than the government allowed group number (6 in England); maintain SD when stationary or moving; no bottle/food/eqpt sharing; do not join group which already has 6 in
*  alone: pass (fleeting closeness moment)
Pedestrians and vehicles: Pass
Taps: Wipe before and after use, and use cloth to avoid physically touching tap.
ATMs: Wipe before and after use
Indoors
*  Pubs: Avoid
*  Shop/garage/cafe:
  #  minimise such stops (by choice, and by carrying sufficient food and two bottles);
  #  wash ungloved hands with carried (or provided) liquid before/on entry and on/after exit;
  #  adhere to SD and mask wearing (latter not Wales);
  #  rely on COVID risk mitigation measures put in place by establishments for everyone, even cyclists; carry and use own lock: no sharing
  #  choose to sit outside if possible
Comment: Use of shop implies no more NB 'additional' risk to the rider or others in the shop than a 'normal' visit to a shop to buy groceries.
*  Toilets: wash ungloved hands before/on entry and on/after exit; adhere to advertised COVID risk mitigation measures
Overnight stop (once 400+ audaxes are sanctioned)
*  Avoid if reasonable or (DIY) design route to allow 'home' as option
*  See 'Outdoors' and 'Indoors' above

As an aside the Audax UK 'Behaviour Code' says:
"You should wear a suitable face covering when required to do so, e.g. if entering retail premises. If you propose to continue cycling afterwards and find the face covering uncomfortable, you should dispose of it safely, or store it in a sealable plastic bag. If you need to use a face covering later in the ride, you should use a different new or clean one."
Given that a mask's function is to prevent transmission of an asymptomatic individual's viral load, it's not clear to me what merit there is to bag a used mask and not use it again. I expect a proportion of audax cyclists will use a buff anyway so that will be reused.

[mattc]

My own cautious approach is perhaps influenced by living in Greater Manchester, where Covid rates are apparently quite high and I am not allowed to visit my family, not even in the garden.  I'm very apprehensive of going out of the house at all, I worry about going to the local Co-op for the weekly shop, and there's no way I'd go to a pub or cafe.  It's beginning to feel a bit agoraphobic.  I have no argument with AUKs current policy.

That said, I'm out for a 100km Perm over the weekend.  I intend to have nothing to do with anyone at all.

You're in Oldham aren't you?  The current infection rate there  is 66.6 per 100,000 people.    If the mortality/infection ratio is still 1%, that's 0.66 deaths per 100k people per week.

About 5 people die per day on British roads  That's 3 deaths per 100,000 people per year, or 0.06 per week.  Then again, you'll be significantly more at risk than most people, due to the number of miles you do on a bicycle, which is one of the riskier forms of transport out there.  The risks are really in the same ballpark, and if you're worried about C19, you should be equally worried about audax full stop.

Riding a bicycle doesn't make three other people you meet ride a bicycle.

Do you think long-distance cyclists will have an R-number of 3 once we're allowed to ride as much as we like under AUK regs?
(because if not, your comparison is total gibberish, which is unlike you)

Care to share your reasoning on this figure of 3?

[Jaded]

I'm applying the same finger in the air resining you are.

Anyway, the whole thread has been summarised here:

The logic of "If I do X, bad thing Y might happen to person Z" only goes so far.  At some point, person Z has to suck it up as the cost of living - otherwise I'd just have to kill myself now so I never risk breathing bad air in your face.

Me Me Me!

[Davef]

If anyone has any specific questions about SIR mathematical epidemic models I can consult with our in house expert.