Solar tile panels

[Canardly]

http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/

[Auntie Helen]

"PRESS STATEMENT

In response to speculation on our position on the government’s review of Feed-in Tariffs, an Energy Saving Trust spokesperson said:

“We’ve been working on a draft consumer guidance document in relation to the Fast Track Review of Feed in Tariffs for Solar PV to pre-empt the Government consultation which is expected next week. Preparing advice on a potential announcement was the responsible thing to do as the leading consumer advice body in this area. Unfortunately, due to a technical error this document was made available for search.

“This is a work in progress document which is no longer on our web site and cannot be relied upon as the Government consultation has yet to be announced. Then and only then will we know the precise contents. We cannot confirm anything within our fact sheet until then.”

Ends"

[Tewdric]

How could they possibly have decided the new rate when they haven't conducted the public consultation yet?

[border-rider]

Even at at a FIT of 40p or whatever I still think the economics of this were marginal, and at 21p it seems to make little sense even with an install cost of say 10k. Either way it would rely on that FIT still being in place in 20 years time, and I have little confidence of that - or at least, that it would continue to be inflation-linked.

I've run the calculations every which-way, including compounding-up the FIT income etc, and I still reckon that you can find far better returns if you're happy to have your money tied up for 20 years

Given that I find the environmental case a bit sparse also, and that we'd have to apply for planning permission, then it looks as if this is the end of the road for our ambitions in this direction

My guess is that in a few years panel efficiencies will be much higher and install costs lower, and it might then be worth revisiting it.

[Adam]

True, but having read through the original legislation for the FITs, these have the figures and RPI increases cast in stone.

Whilst it would not be beyond the realms of possibility to alter the rates for existing installations at some point down the line, it is very unusual for any Government to introduce retrospective legislation in this way, and realistically I couldn't see them getting away with it.

[toontra]

There was a government minister (didn't catch the name) on You and Yours (R4) yesterday saying any changes to the FIT tariff would not affect those already registered.  From what I gather this will likely also apply to anyone who is fully signed-up by December this year.

[Hot Flatus]

Even at at a FIT of 40p or whatever I still think the economics of this were marginal, and at 21p it seems to make little sense even with an install cost of say 10k. Either way it would rely on that FIT still being in place in 20 years time, and I have little confidence of that - or at least, that it would continue to be inflation-linked.

This is precisely the conclusion I have come to after mulling over it for a year. The gamble is not so much on the stated payback terms but on whether you trust the government to stick to them.

[Jacomus]

13-Year-Old Makes A Solar Breakthrough With Fibonacci Sequence

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2011/08/13-year-old-makes-solar-breakthrough-with-fibonacci-sequence.php

http://www.amnh.org/nationalcenter/youngnaturalistawards/2011/aidan.html

Sadly, an update: http://www.treehugger.com/clean-technology/blog-debunks-13-year-olds-solar-power-breakthrough.html

[Biggsy]

Sadly, an update: http://www.treehugger.com/clean-technology/blog-debunks-13-year-olds-solar-power-breakthrough.html

Oops.  The trees would have been ridiculously expensive to make anyway.

I like TreeHugger's upbeat comment:

The blog finally concludes with: "How did this confused science project became international news?"

While I can't do the calculations to prove or disprove the teen's science experiment, I can answer this question. Because we all love hearing about teens doing interesting, cool things in school. Because we all enjoy knowing that children still take an interest in something other than video games. Because it's exciting to hear that a teenager is thinking about things we care about. Because we would trust that when a teen gets an award from the American Museum of Natural History, then he's probably right, or at least right enough, to write about. Because he seems cool, and we like that.

[Exit Stage Left]

Even at at a FIT of 40p or whatever I still think the economics of this were marginal, and at 21p it seems to make little sense even with an install cost of say 10k. Either way it would rely on that FIT still being in place in 20 years time, and I have little confidence of that - or at least, that it would continue to be inflation-linked.

This is precisely the conclusion I have come to after mulling over it for a year. The gamble is not so much on the stated payback terms but on whether you trust the government to stick to them.

We had a bloke round the other week. I don't really like the idea of other consumers subsidising a high FIT, and I also envisage problems with the installation in terms of buggering up the slates. Which as the change in the tarrif rates will probably put the installers out of business would be down to me to sort out.

[pdm]

I was all costed up and quoted out, poised with pen and chequebook to sign up on Friday last week when the news broke. My installer (the one with the best quote - £3.50/W and the one I trust most) cannot deliver by the 8th Dec so the deal is off. Second choice is more expensive, can deliver, but I have some reservations about the over budget quote and I have lost faith in the gubbinment not to pull out the rug in the future when paying that price.
Being a slightly more complicated install, mine would have been at the more expensive end of the available spectrum. Break even on 43.3p FIT vs another investment available to me for the same money would have been around 14 years - note, this is not the same as "paying for itself" which would have been 8.5 years, but reaching the same actual capital+return values. At 21p, it comes in at over 21 years with generous assumptions!
I suspect the thing to do is to wait until the costs fall a lot more, as indeed they will, so that the installation is cost effective on a lower and sustainable FIT, if a FIT is still necessary.

[David Martin]

I was talking to a person who runs a renewable energy business (an electrician who also does solar). He said that in his experience (a lot of fixing existing installations) the returns were not as good as anticipated because:
a) inverters fail relatively quickly and are expensive
b) the panels don't standup to a Scottish climate terribly well. (or to be precise, the fittings that come with them)
c) Scotland. Sunshine. lack of.

So whilst he wouldn't advise me to not go down that route if I was so inclined he suggested that if it broke even over the lifetime of the panels then I shoudl consider it a bonus.

So that will be a resounding NO then. Which is a shame.

[Polar Bear]

Some friends of mine in Rugby had solar in September 2010.   Because of a willow tree on public land it meant that their calculations expected payback in 25 years.   they were still happy to proceed.   The willow tree had to be severely pollarded in September this year after a couple of large branches fell into the road and onto a public footpath.   The differences this past three months compared to last year are startling.   Of course they don't have enough data yet but their installer revised the original calcs based upon the tree no longer being there and they now get payback in fifteen years.

The payback calculation is interesting because you get paid for generating electricity as well as a feed in tariff.   Apparently it works out better for them to use their generated juice rather than feed it in.   I cannot remember the exact deal but as one of them is home a lot they tend to do the washing etc. during sunny days rather than by economy 7.