Shimano 105 going electronic

[Hot Flatus]

....probably

https://cyclingtips.com/2021/09/shimano-105-di2-r7100-is-coming/

Confirmed that 11sp mech Ultegra only continued for a year, then no more cables.

[citoyen]

Quick, lock the thread!

[grams]

Can you edit the title to add “Some random guy with column inches to fill and zero insider information sez”?

[DuncanM]

Not sure James Huang is a random guy, but there is a distinct lack of actual news in that article.

[Cudzoziemiec]

Some controversial opinions in that article:

However, it also seems clear that the entry point for drop-bar riding is now gravel bikes, not traditional road bikes

Some feathers will ruffle! 

[citoyen]

Not sure James Huang is a random guy, but there is a distinct lack of actual news in that article.

I think it’s what you’d call an educated guess, no?

[Hot Flatus]

Huang is pretty well-connected. He's about as far from 'a random guy' as it gets in cycling journalism.

I don't think he is writing this just to pass the time.

[TimC]

105 is the new Ultegra. Well, it will be when the new generation is announced. No problem with that - R7000 105 is arguably better than any Ultegra before R8000, and it's certainly no hardship to use it. It also makes sense that Shimano maintains a mechanical 105 option as it introduces Di2. From the article, it looks like the price gap between the mechanical and electronic 105 will be larger on release than it currently is between mech and elec Ultegra, but I wonder how long that large gap will survive market forces?

As the author points out, Sram haven't attempted to update their mechanical groupsets in parallel with their electronic ones, and Red 22 is now 8 years old. Shimano are kind of following that trend for the higher-level groupsets. Looking at the street prices of Sram Rival AXS, I'd expect 105 Di2 to settle at around £1100-1200, which - if it happens - is a very compelling offer. R7000 105 mech/disc is currently around £700, and I'd hope that the 12-speed iteration wouldn't be much more. At that kind of price, 12-speed becomes relatively easily achievable (yes, I'm aware that we are talking quite a lot of money here).

The supply issues that are distorting the market (worldwide) just now will not be with us for ever, and I'd anticipate that the competitive status quo will resume within the next year. The product names may be different, but the product standard available for a given price is continuing to improve.

[rogerzilla]

Problem is, there is a huge leap in price to Di2 (compare mechanical amd electronic Ultegra), so they're pricing a lot of people out of the market.  I have absolutely zero interest in electronic shifting, anyway.  It doesn't solve any problems for me.  If they could invent a self-cleaning drivetrain, *that* would be attractive.

[mrcharly-YHT]

Problem is, there is a huge leap in price to Di2 (compare mechanical amd electronic Ultegra), so they're pricing a lot of people out of the market.  I have absolutely zero interest in electronic shifting, anyway.  It doesn't solve any problems for me.  If they could invent a self-cleaning drivetrain, *that* would be attractive.

Rolhoff with chaincase or belt drive. Job done.

[Hot Flatus]

Problem is, there is a huge leap in price to Di2 (compare mechanical amd electronic Ultegra), so they're pricing a lot of people out of the market.  I have absolutely zero interest in electronic shifting, anyway.  It doesn't solve any problems for me.  If they could invent a self-cleaning drivetrain, *that* would be attractive.

It solves the problem of degraded shifting. No need to change outers and inners every year or so.

The rest is, I agree, more moot.

[DuncanM]

Problem is, there is a huge leap in price to Di2 (compare mechanical amd electronic Ultegra), so they're pricing a lot of people out of the market.  I have absolutely zero interest in electronic shifting, anyway.  It doesn't solve any problems for me.  If they could invent a self-cleaning drivetrain, *that* would be attractive.

Out of which market? That of high end groupsets?
I run 105 mechanical (and lower) so it makes no odds to me, but I assume they would place electronic 105 around where mechanical Ultegra was, meaning they still hit the same price-points, just with a different balance between electronic and mechanical.
I can see how it would solve the problems my daughter has with shifting (tiny hands), but there's no way I'm putting electronic shifting on her bike!

[Cudzoziemiec]

It will price people out when/if they cease making mechanical shifting at 105 and below. Or to view it another way, it will shift the point at which mid-range becomes high-end from Ultegra to 105 or Tiagra or wherever they get to. Unless they can produce electronic shifting for mechanical prices, which maybe they will be able to in bulk.

[lissotriton]

I'm sure electronic shifting already is cheaper to manufacture. Just a question of marketing as to what level they sell it for.
So it will soon trickle down to the cheaper groupsets. And probably some cheap Chinese copies, which could be compatible with the Shimano stuff.

[TimC]

Problem is, there is a huge leap in price to Di2 (compare mechanical amd electronic Ultegra), so they're pricing a lot of people out of the market.  I have absolutely zero interest in electronic shifting, anyway.  It doesn't solve any problems for me.  If they could invent a self-cleaning drivetrain, *that* would be attractive.

I disagree. Those who would buy mechanical 105 will still be able to, and at much the same price, but it will be 12-speed (current disc 105 here). Di2 105 is likely to be considerably cheaper than the current Ultegra Di2 (see here). And by 'considerably' I mean somewhere in the order of £700+ cheaper. That brings Di2 to a whole new market, as Rival AXS has done already. You won't be able to buy mechanical Ultegra but, frankly, I doubt too many will worry about that - R7100 mechanical 105 will be at least as good as the current R8000 mechanical Ultegra.

[Frank9755]

I'm sure electronic shifting already is cheaper to manufacture. Just a question of marketing as to what level they sell it for.
So it will soon trickle down to the cheaper groupsets. And probably some cheap Chinese copies, which could be compatible with the Shimano stuff.

Absolutely. 
It is usually easier to predict the long term future than the road by which we get there - and less risk of being proven wrong any time soon!

In 10-15 years time:
- Gears will be like watches.  Virtually every bike will have electronic gears, mainly because it is cheaper but also a bit better for most people as well.  There might be might be some high end mechanical systems for particular niches such as retro
- Shifters will be cheaper than they are now.  Most relevant patents will have expired (that is what stops copies of Di2, etc, not engineering challenges) so there will be low-cost options.

The challenges for Shimano et al are:
- to delay the inevitable as long as they can
- invent more new stuff to justify/support premium pricing
- manage the lifecycle of Di2 to maximise their profits
Basically the same challenges that companies which design and manufacture things have always faced.

So they will try to keep electronic priced at a premium to mechanical as long as they can.  The main purpose of high-end mechanical at this point is probably not to make money (hence no investment in it and few people buy it) but to support the price of electronic - to give it something to be premium to. 

They will also try to patent all sorts of different things to defend Di2 as long as possible - but it won't work.  At some point the dam will break and good alternatives will be available for surprisingly little money.  Archer is something like $300 for rear-only, but they are not manufacturing at scale.  Maybe it will be more like £100 for front and rear shifters within 5 years. 

This will be great for the utility market but Shimano and the others will make sure that there are some things that it cannot do so that it is not great for high end.  And the fashion gatekeepers will hate it!

[T42]

Knowing SFA about Di2 other than that I can't afford it, I've just been through this https://bettershifting.com/di2-for-dummies-beginners-guide-to-di2-manual/ and decided that I don't want it either.  I had a shufti at the latest Ultegra DM as well.  Jesus wept: more connectors to get screwed up, little blobby external doo-hickeys to get in the way, more real estate on the frame/handlebars usurped, and bloody wee blinkenlichts to be kept an eye on.

Colour me Luddite.  I'm going to lay in a big enough stock of cables and shifter covers to last me until I croak.

[Hot Flatus]

You charge the battery every thousand miles.

If you can't remember how many you've ridden you press any shifter button for a few seconds and you get a battery level readout. Green=OK. Red= not OK.  Red and green= almost not OK.

And that's it.

[TimC]

Knowing SFA about Di2 other than that I can't afford it, I've just been through this https://bettershifting.com/di2-for-dummies-beginners-guide-to-di2-manual/ and decided that I don't want it either.  I had a shufti at the latest Ultegra DM as well.  Jesus wept: more connectors to get screwed up, little blobby external doo-hickeys to get in the way, more real estate on the frame/handlebars usurped, and bloody wee blinkenlichts to be kept an eye on.

Colour me Luddite.  I'm going to lay in a big enough stock of cables and shifter covers to last me until I croak.

Di2 (and Sram ETAP) uses no more 'real estate' than mechanical groupsets - less, as there's no cabling at all in ETAP, and none on the bars with the new Di2. The old Di2 (and the new 105 Di2 is likely to be similar) has a very simple wiring layout that's much easier than mechanical cabling to install. And it never needs adjusting. As HF says, charging is required about every 1000km. It's as easy as charging your phone. It's expensive compared to mechanical shifting, but it is far better. And, as Frank says, it's likely to be the default choice before too long - and a lot cheaper.

[Pedal Castro]

I put Di2 Ultegra on my last build just to try it out. It's different but not sufficiently better that I would do it again.

[T42]

Knowing SFA about Di2 other than that I can't afford it, I've just been through this https://bettershifting.com/di2-for-dummies-beginners-guide-to-di2-manual/ and decided that I don't want it either.  I had a shufti at the latest Ultegra DM as well.  Jesus wept: more connectors to get screwed up, little blobby external doo-hickeys to get in the way, more real estate on the frame/handlebars usurped, and bloody wee blinkenlichts to be kept an eye on.

Colour me Luddite.  I'm going to lay in a big enough stock of cables and shifter covers to last me until I croak.

Di2 (and Sram ETAP) uses no more 'real estate' than mechanical groupsets - less, as there's no cabling at all in ETAP, and none on the bars with the new Di2. The old Di2 (and the new 105 Di2 is likely to be similar) has a very simple wiring layout that's much easier than mechanical cabling to install. And it never needs adjusting. As HF says, charging is required about every 1000km. It's as easy as charging your phone. It's expensive compared to mechanical shifting, but it is far better. And, as Frank says, it's likely to be the default choice before too long - and a lot cheaper.

The Ultegra DM shows various positions for charging points etc., one of which is on the end of the bars, and another on a doo-hickey zip-tied to the bars or under the stem. Sorry, space already taken.

[Hot Flatus]

I put Di2 Ultegra on my last build just to try it out. It's different but not sufficiently better that I would do it again.

Wait until its 6 years old and it still shifts like new, without ever having had to recable, lube cable, change outers (ballache if internal) or adjust indexing. You might feel different about it....I did.

[DuncanM]

Knowing SFA about Di2 other than that I can't afford it, I've just been through this https://bettershifting.com/di2-for-dummies-beginners-guide-to-di2-manual/ and decided that I don't want it either.  I had a shufti at the latest Ultegra DM as well.  Jesus wept: more connectors to get screwed up, little blobby external doo-hickeys to get in the way, more real estate on the frame/handlebars usurped, and bloody wee blinkenlichts to be kept an eye on.

Colour me Luddite.  I'm going to lay in a big enough stock of cables and shifter covers to last me until I croak.

Di2 (and Sram ETAP) uses no more 'real estate' than mechanical groupsets - less, as there's no cabling at all in ETAP, and none on the bars with the new Di2. The old Di2 (and the new 105 Di2 is likely to be similar) has a very simple wiring layout that's much easier than mechanical cabling to install. And it never needs adjusting. As HF says, charging is required about every 1000km. It's as easy as charging your phone. It's expensive compared to mechanical shifting, but it is far better. And, as Frank says, it's likely to be the default choice before too long - and a lot cheaper.

The Ultegra DM shows various positions for charging points etc., one of which is on the end of the bars, and another on a doo-hickey zip-tied to the bars or under the stem. Sorry, space already taken.

New DI2 has no Doohickey. The brake levers have coin cells that are supposed to last a year, and the chargepoint for the rest of it is on the derailleur.

[TimC]

The Ultegra DM shows various positions for charging points etc., one of which is on the end of the bars, and another on a doo-hickey zip-tied to the bars or under the stem. Sorry, space already taken.

The new system has the charging point in the rear mech. Sram ETAP has detachable (and interchangeable) mech batteries. If you want to find objections to it, of course you can - and the expense will be the major one for most people. However, once you've lived with it, it's very hard to go back! I still have mechanical groupsets from all three major manufacturers on some of my bikes, and they're great. But there's no pretending they're as easy to use or live with as the electronic versions.

Edit: my Sram Red ETAP 'Wide-Fi' (the second version of the first generation ETAP) is on its original shifter batteries two years in. They're still fine, though I should probably replace them soon.

[Feanor]

The Ultegra DM shows various positions for charging points etc., one of which is on the end of the bars, and another on a doo-hickey zip-tied to the bars or under the stem. Sorry, space already taken.

The new system has the charging point in the rear mech.

Out of curiosity, what kind of connnector are they using for the charging port, and how water/crud proof does it seem given it's exposed location?