Yet Another Cycling Forum
General Category => Audax => Topic started by: Shreds on 03 January, 2016, 09:52:24 am
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An 09:25 start heading North West for Steve. :thumbsup:
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An 09:25 start heading North West East for Steve. :thumbsup:
Go Steve!
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Steve is absolutely incredible, isn't he? Whilst he still thinks there's the slightest chance of taking the record in August, he will give it his best shot. I have never met anyone with such grit and determination*. If he gets just a fraction of the luck he deserves, he will do it.
*With the possible exception of Gary Kasparov.
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I am totally in awe of Steve's ability to get up and do it day after day, no matter how bad he's feeling and no matter how far behind the curve he is. He certainly deserves a decent run of luck. I'm not optimistic he'll do it, but I'm bloody impressed at the way he's going about it.
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Allez!
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Steve on a "Northern Trek" by the look of things and probably only 20-30 miles from Kajsa if the respective trackers are accurate.
Allez Steve.
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It's days like today that are a measure of Steve. It's one of the shittiest days imaginable to be out on a bike, short of sleet and hail - for all I know he might be suffering them as well. It's typical bloody January here - windy, not desperately cold, but not warm, and raining. It has hardly got properly light all day - there was some pink in the sky when I got out of bed at 8 this morning for my pre-breakfast potter, but it didn't last long.
He's one hard bastard.
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Agreed. I took one look at the weather this morning and wimped out. Steve's power to inspire didn't quite make the grade today!! ;D
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He's one hard bastard.
Incredibly so.
I hope he has a lift home arranged or tomorrow is going to be a pig.
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We pottered about for a couple of hours this morning. I was glad to get home before the worst of the weather and couldn't help but admire Steve all the more for getting out there.
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We pottered about for a couple of hours this morning. I was glad to get home before the worst of the weather and couldn't help but admire Steve all the more for getting out there.
I rode to the Severn Bridge in desperate rain all the way. Every moment I thought of Steve repeating that four times daily. At least the sun came out briefly for the ride home.
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Steve looks to be going at his standard pace - which is below the 216 miles a day required. I await the plan that was mentioned in the radio interview. I have never hoped as much that I was wrong but it looks like the sand is slipping between the fingers. 216 miles a day now required and needs to speed up by 2mph to be able to complete the distance in the same time and have a good nights sleep. Every day like this and the daily total goes up.
All the best Steve
BB
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But it's worth remembering what was posted on FB a few days ago when they reported the result of his more positive blood tests:
Steve will begin to build up his daily mileage again - gradually - from this weekend (in order to avoid reversing any health gains from the rest days).
There is no plan to be riding 219 mile days today, and given the absolutely foul weather I'd say a 180-190 mile day at his "standard pace" would be both prudent and anticipated.
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I think you are both right - he can't afford to risk his health by ramping straight up again, but he can't afford not to, or the runs required per over will spiral out of control. Very hard. If he pulls it off, this is where he will have done it. This is the heat of his battle. I suspect he might be enjoying it!
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That approach means that Steve would need to hit 230+ daily miles for months on end after winter.
I don't think he has that in him, given his current condition and likely rate of improvement. He hasn't shown the required average speed (for the whole day) at any point in the past year and hasn't had even a week averaging 230 daily miles. It is the combination of minimum average speed and hours in the saddle (without stopping) that will limit him. Unless he can increase his daily average speed by at least 2 mph very soon, he runs out of hours in the day.
It is good that Steve is improving his daily performance but it still isn't enough to take the record.
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LWAB that is exactly my thoughts I hope I am wrong but there are the worst six weeks of weather coming up and things could get worse not better. The maths for this is getting worse for Steve all the time another month of the current pace gives a daily average of 220miles and Steve needs to increase his speed by 2.5mph - that is enormous and it is only the average. Calorie intake will increase and fatigue will be greater. This is a step change of 15% - all my cycling has told me that this is unachievable unless there is major change in something.
The radio interview only went on about the Tommy average of 205 and not the current values. Makes me wonder if the team are using the same numbers.
BB
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I think after Steve's Strava pronouncements and Idai's interview, we have to accept that they know where they stand and that this month is make-or-break. Let's watch and see what happens, and wish Steve as strong a following wind as he can get.
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I don't think the team is looking at the numbers required in any meaningful way. They didn't seem to be doing so before the crash and they don't seem to be doing so now. Even Idai's interview didn't actually say that they'd pull the pin on Steve if he was even further behind at the end of January.
Everything seems to be relying on Steve's assessments and we know they are hopelessly optimistic. Even after breaking his ankle, he thought there was still a decent chance of breaking Tommy's record when it was obvious to everybody else that it had become impossible.
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I think after Steve's Strava pronouncements and Idai's interview, we have to accept that they know where they stand and that this month is make-or-break. Let's watch and see what happens, and wish Steve as strong a following wind as he can get.
I agree. I think Steve knows what a tall order it is, and it's one of the things that distinguishes him from ordinary mortals. He's prepared to back himself against massive odds. I will be absolutely amazed if he succeeds, but then I have found so much of the past 12 months' cycling so utterly amazing that I will be the first to shake his metaphorical hand (and his real one, when I get the chance), congratulate him and say "I was wrong!"
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and wish Steve as strong a following wind as he can get.
he's had one all day, but there was only 69 miles on the tracker by getting on 4pm, 6+ hours after he'd been on the road,
122 now, but he's been stopped for over an hour in Knaith Park, thats round the corner from me, theres nothing there apart from 20 houses ???
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The last tracking point is bang on the Stags Head pub.
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8:30pm 11 hours on the road with a helpful wind and 196km completed. Another three hours will give 60 km extra and only just over 250km - I hope the tracker is wrong. :'(
BB
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At the average speeds he is currently holding on the road, Steve needs to basically spend every waking minute moving to achieve his required daily mileage. Without full-time intensive support and a body that can completely recuperate during the time he is stopped, you end up with a series of 1-3 long days followed by 1-2 short days that lose any gain towards the required daily average.
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20 houses and a pub them ;D
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I think after Steve's Strava pronouncements and Idai's interview, we have to accept that they know where they stand and that this month is make-or-break. Let's watch and see what happens, and wish Steve as strong a following wind as he can get.
I agree. I think Steve knows what a tall order it is, and it's one of the things that distinguishes him from ordinary mortals. He's prepared to back himself against massive odds. I will be absolutely amazed if he succeeds, but then I have found so much of the past 12 months' cycling so utterly amazing that I will be the first to shake his metaphorical hand (and his real one, when I get the chance), congratulate him and say "I was wrong!"
Yes, we all know how much Steve has to do to get back on track, and we've said so over and over in the 'thoughts' thread. No point in saying it yet again. Whatever Steve, Idai and the team are thinking, and what numbers they're using, they've said that an assessment will be made at the end of this month. Ok, fair enough - so let's let them get on with it and we can all update the conversation at that time. If they're no nearer achieving the required miles, we can once again urge a break and regroup. If the miles are coming, as Steve believes they will, then let's get behind him and give him whatever morale lift we can.
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If I gave any impression that I wasn't rooting for Steve 100% then let me correct that now. I am, and I have been all year. I would love to be proved wrong in this case.
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If I gave any impression that I wasn't rooting for Steve 100% then let me correct that now. I am, and I have been all year. I would love to be proved wrong in this case.
Me too
BB
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Yes, we all know how much Steve has to do to get back on track, and we've said so over and over in the 'thoughts' thread. No point in saying it yet again. Whatever Steve, Idai and the team are thinking, and what numbers they're using, they've said that an assessment will be made at the end of this month. Ok, fair enough - so let's let them get on with it and we can all update the conversation at that time. If they're no nearer achieving the required miles, we can once again urge a break and regroup. If the miles are coming, as Steve believes they will, then let's get behind him and give him whatever morale lift we can.
:thumbsup:
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I don't think the team is looking at the numbers required in any meaningful way. They didn't seem to be doing so before the crash and they don't seem to be doing so now. Even Idai's interview didn't actually say that they'd pull the pin on Steve if he was even further behind at the end of January.
Everything seems to be relying on Steve's assessments and we know they are hopelessly optimistic. Even after breaking his ankle, he thought there was still a decent chance of breaking Tommy's record when it was obvious to everybody else that it had become impossible.
I respect your thinking on all of this.
However, I think Steve’s assessments during the post-leg fracture period were a reflection of his way of maintaining a positive outlook. In fact the impact of the injury and the one-legged recovery were much greater than could have been predicted - to the extent that if it had not occurred Steve may well have already broken the record. There were also other setbacks later in the year. These setbacks could be once-only events in that there is nothing to say that they will repeat themselves. He has also, during that time, made a profound change to his diet which should pay dividends in the longer run. In addition, there does seem to have been a change in his attitude to headwind avoidance via lifts.
So I can understand that Steve may feel that all in all, he has not had a fair crack of the whip yet and that he has not been able to give of his best. The record remains achievable.
Go Steve!
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He's off up past the Goodbye Yorkshire Christmas Pudding route this morning. Travelodge M18/M180 for tonight?
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Goole Premier Inn at 23:45 with pretty poor weather all day.
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<SNIP> In fact the impact of the injury and the one-legged recovery were much greater than could have been predicted - to the extent that if it had not occurred Steve may well have already broken the record. There were also other setbacks later in the year. These setbacks could be once-only events in that there is nothing to say that they will repeat themselves. He has also, during that time, made a profound change to his diet which should pay dividends in the longer run. In addition, there does seem to have been a change in his attitude to headwind avoidance via lifts.
So I can understand that Steve may feel that all in all, he has not had a fair crack of the whip yet and that he has not been able to give of his best. The record remains achievable.
Go Steve!
Before the crash, Steve had already hit his 'maximum riding hours in a day' limit and hadn't yet started to gain ground on his deficit to Tommy. Granted, his average speed was finally starting to lift a little at the end of March but the further average speed increase he needed to take the record was still significant. It was doubtful at that stage whether Steve could have taken the record, even if he avoided all illness or injury for the remainder of the year.
Multiple people have run the numbers necessary for Steve to take the record in this attempt and they all say the same thing. He needs to ride for more hours, he needs to ride significantly faster and he needs to do it now.
I do agree that Steve hasn't been able to give of his best and he may yet take the record but it won't be within this attempt. His only chance to do so is to stop, recover, regain his speed and tackle the record again, taking account of hard-won lessons.
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I'm bored of hearing the same thing in hundreds of different ways...it doesn't add anything to what's already been said.
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Kind of like 'Go Steve'?
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Kind of like 'Go Steve'?
You've got to be fairly bitter to have that reaction to words of encouragement.
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At least that's only two words.
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I'm very pleased to see that folk in general have become more positive since a couple of pieces of info have come out of the camp.
I'm backing Steve to have a good January and for the record attempt to remain live and kicking. :thumbsup:
< Glass half full kinda bear! >
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Kind of like 'Go Steve'?
You've got to be fairly bitter to have that reaction to words of encouragement.
No. Just bored with those folk who actually choose not to use their intelligence. The Go Steve thing was to catch their attention.
I'll let the train continue to crash in slow motion now. What a waste.
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Is there an opposite of 'kibitzer'? :-\
The time for encouragement has passed. Now is the time to dispassionately look at facts and numbers.
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Kind of like 'Go Steve'?
Could not agree MORE and well posted
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Is there an opposite of 'kibitzer'? :-\
The time for encouragement has passed. Now is the time to dispassionately look at facts and numbers.
I cannot help but disagree but I'm not wasting my life in a bunfight over it.
If you have followed all the threads, that's what is reported from the Idai interview in the doom and gloom thread.
The end of the world is nigh...
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Is there an opposite of 'kibitzer'? :-\
The time for encouragement has passed. Now is the time to dispassionately look at facts and numbers.
I cannot help but disagree but I'm not wasting my life in a bunfight over it.
If you have followed all the threads, that's what is reported from the Idai interview in the doom and gloom thread.
The end of the world is nigh...
Fact and numbers were precisely what was missing from the Idai interview linked to by jackt, or in the CTC interview.
There's assertion - and it's always going to be assertion - but there wasn't really anything from which you could conclude that Idai or other team members have a grasp on the actual daily numbers needed, or had done any analysis to support their assertion that Steve will be able to increase his daily distances to those which are necessary.
The only specific daily distances Idai mentions in the CTC piece - granted, as casual references - seem to raise more questions than they answer, about how they've been derived and what they imply.
I'd still love to see Steve take the prize, but I just hope that this current effort isn't going to leave him broken.
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It's not that simple a binary choice.
I'd encourage Steve although (and this is a personal choice, everyone is free to do what they want) I don't know what value, if any, posting "Go Steve" on a thread on an Internet forum actually has. He certainly doesn't read every single thread, if any, and if he does he's (a) possibly wasting valuable time, and (b) going to encounter plenty of negative comments that won't help him. More than likely the gist of things [only the postive stuff if they have any sense] is reported back to him by his team who are reading this and I doubt this includes a list of people who've said "Go Steve" on each thread.
But, despite rooting for him, I don't think he's got much chance at all of beating the record this time round (I'll be more than happy to be proven wrong), but I don't think he should stop yet. My logic goes something like this:-
If he's not going to restart again in the future then me may as well carry on. I'm not sure what my criteria for pulling the plug would be but obviously it's somewhere between the 219 miles per day required (as it is roughly now and I think he should continue) and 300 miles per day (which he obviously couldn't do), but exactly where I don't know. My guess is it's a bit more complicated than that and will be based on whether his start times get later and later, or his average speed starts to drop, or the stopped time during the rides start to get longer and longer, all of which point to the cumulative fatigue becoming too much.
If he's going to restart again then the most obvious date for a restart (in my mind at least) is 1st Jan 2017 to keep the 'calendar year' purists happy and is more in the spirit of the original Year challenge, this also gives himself time to wind down, rest, recover, replan, test new things, and train properly even if he finishes the current attempt on 6th August 2016 I think ~145 days is enough time to do this before he goes again.
Whether or not he has the head/legs for another 7 months of riding, 5 months of some relief (but still some reasonable hard work to give him self the best shot of a new record) and then another full 12 months on is something that only Steve can answer. There's also the question of funding for those 24 months, especially if the replan includes things that cost more (a 24/7 aide, an RV or just lifts to the start of a tailwind) but despite FB's reports on funds we're pretty much in the dark as to what the finances are like (and predicting the future is nigh on impossible).
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Is there an opposite of 'kibitzer'? :-\
The time for encouragement has passed. Now is the time to dispassionately look at facts and numbers.
I think it's "kibitzer" that you want.
In a very-long-distance cycle race, it's trivially easy to do the sums and come to a conclusion. In chess, which is the only other forum in which I have heard the expression, kibitzers ask the grandmasters, during the game's post-mortem, questions about why they chose one move over another. It's a genuine desire for more understanding and the answer is very often quite complex.
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Aha, I lazily assumed that the term was being used to refer to (my and others') perceived cynicism and negativity. You're absolutely right - I didn't realise it referred to all types of back-seat driving.
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Used in bridge too - I hadn't heard it used for chess spectators/amateur analysts until Wow brought it up in another thread a wee while ago.