Author Topic: PBP Registration website  (Read 86911 times)

SPB

Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #225 on: 30 January, 2019, 09:40:03 am »
2221 places left as at 0900 today UK time.  Rumours Predictions of it being sold out by now have been somewhat  overstated.

Date   Time limit   Available places
18/08   80h00   617
18/08   90h00   1205
19/08   84h00   399

I'd estimate that c 1900 places will be left by 11th Feb when 400s can register and that there will still be well over 1000 places left when riders with 300s can register.

I'd not be surprised if there were still places left for riders with a 200.

Forgive me, I'm new here, but I think c.1700 places went to the 1200/1000 pre-qualifiers and c.2200 places to the 600 pre-qualifiers.  I'd have thought there'd be even more 400 pre-qualifiers, not fewer?

simonp

Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #226 on: 30 January, 2019, 09:44:55 am »
There are more 400 pre qualifier *rides* but there is an overlap and usually also more repetition of riders at shorter distances. It’s unclear what this means but there is a good chance indeed that the 400s will take all the places.

I’m after an 80h slot which will hopefully be last group to sell out.

SPB

Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #227 on: 30 January, 2019, 09:59:16 am »
True, but I'd have thought there were more people who had 400 as their longest 2018 BRM than had 600.  In the same way that there were more who had 600 than 1200/1000.

Smeth

  • less Grimpeur than Whimpeur...
Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #228 on: 30 January, 2019, 10:10:30 am »
True, but I'd have thought there were more people who had 400 as their longest 2018 BRM than had 600.  In the same way that there were more who had 600 than 1200/1000.  Do you think that's not the case then?
Many 400s are ridden by folks doing an SR series that has to include a 600. Ditto most of the 1000s will have ridden an SR. Many will have ridden more than one 600/400. It's all speculation. So you're probably right but it may not be as bad as apparent. Also those with successively shorter rides last year are less likely to enter a 1200. My cup is 50.000001% full! But then I'm in

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Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #229 on: 30 January, 2019, 10:12:20 am »
People who didn’t achieve a 600 will be less interested in attempting PBP, which balances out them being far greater in number.

Phil W

Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #230 on: 30 January, 2019, 11:39:11 am »
People who didn’t achieve a 600 will be less interested in attempting PBP, which balances out them being far greater in number.

Not necessarily.  They may not have entered a 600 last year , may have been sick for their 600,  may be just working up the distances, thought a 400 would suffice for PBP having noted the opinion given out by the PBP organizers over a year ago.

Pedal Castro

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Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #231 on: 30 January, 2019, 12:10:41 pm »
People who didn’t achieve a 600 will be less interested in attempting PBP, which balances out them being far greater in number.

Not necessarily.  They may not have entered a 600 last year , may have been sick for their 600,  may be just working up the distances, thought a 400 would suffice for PBP having noted the opinion given out by the PBP organizers over a year ago.

That's the only reason I did a 400 last year, recovering as I was from my spill the year before.

SPB

Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #232 on: 30 January, 2019, 12:58:43 pm »
Many 400s are ridden by folks doing an SR series that has to include a 600. Ditto most of the 1000s will have ridden an SR. Many will have ridden more than one 600/400. It's all speculation. So you're probably right but it may not be as bad as apparent. Also those with successively shorter rides last year are less likely to enter a 1200. My cup is 50.000001% full! But then I'm in

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Ah, OK.  I guess there are two kinds of prospective entrant then.  What you might call the old guard, who do the majority of their long distance rides as audaxes and ride an SR every year, and what you might call the newcomers, like myself, who generally do other kinds of long distance riding but included an audax or two in their calendar last year just for PBP pre-registration.   I suppose I was imagining there were more like me, but perhaps my kind are only a small percentage.

rob

Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #233 on: 30 January, 2019, 01:01:49 pm »
Many 400s are ridden by folks doing an SR series that has to include a 600. Ditto most of the 1000s will have ridden an SR. Many will have ridden more than one 600/400. It's all speculation. So you're probably right but it may not be as bad as apparent. Also those with successively shorter rides last year are less likely to enter a 1200. My cup is 50.000001% full! But then I'm in

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Ah, OK.  I guess there are two kinds of prospective entrant then.  What you might call the old guard, who do the majority of their long distance rides as audaxes and ride an SR every year, and what you might call the newcomers, like myself, who generally do other kinds of long distance riding but included a BRM or two in their calendar last year just for PBP pre-registration.   I suppose I was imagining there were more like me, but perhaps my kind are only a small percentage.

I'm not sure I like being called part of the old guard.

SPB

Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #234 on: 30 January, 2019, 01:13:12 pm »
No offence  :)

SPB

Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #235 on: 30 January, 2019, 01:16:49 pm »
Let's say dedicated randonneurs rather than Johnny-come-latelies..


Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #236 on: 30 January, 2019, 01:28:42 pm »
Many 400s are ridden by folks doing an SR series that has to include a 600. Ditto most of the 1000s will have ridden an SR. Many will have ridden more than one 600/400. It's all speculation. So you're probably right but it may not be as bad as apparent. Also those with successively shorter rides last year are less likely to enter a 1200. My cup is 50.000001% full! But then I'm in

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Ah, OK.  I guess there are two kinds of prospective entrant then.  What you might call the old guard, who do the majority of their long distance rides as audaxes and ride an SR every year, and what you might call the newcomers, like myself, who generally do other kinds of long distance riding but included a BRM or two in their calendar last year just for PBP pre-registration.   I suppose I was imagining there were more like me, but perhaps my kind are only a small percentage.

It's not that simple. There is a worldwide network of Audax-Randonee associations. All of them promote rides to the ACP formula. Paris-Brest Paris is essentially their Olympics, and PBP is the pinnacle of their sport. All the Brevets around the world are run by volunteers, they can't be commercial.

PBP itself is run by volunteers, with input from professional caterers. Those volunteers are mainly local. Participants pay for food on the way round, unlike LEL, where you've paid for the food beforehand.

The result is that if there are a lot of people dropping out along the way, there's a lot of unsold food and wastage. The same is true of LEL, but food's already been paid for, so it's a problem of waste, not of finance.

The qualification is to try to ensure that riders don't drop out. More people are capable of qualifying than there are places. So far PBP hasn't ever sold out, but the pre-qualification system seems the fairest way of dealing with that possibility, and prefers those riders around the world, who participate in ACP-sanctioned events.

ACP's loyalty should initially be to Audax organisations around the world, and they are growing fastest in Asia. I think they've got the formula right. It does make it more difficult than before for someone who has picked up on PBP from articles in magazines and online, and isn't working their way through the Audax system.

The system ensures that someone in Thailand, Alaska or New Zealand knows they have a place before they start their qualifiers, and can book tickets in advance. It's not designed for someone in the UK who fancies giving PBP a go, and doesn't need to plan very far ahead.

Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #237 on: 30 January, 2019, 01:48:41 pm »
I’ve been reading this thread with interest . I’ve successfully completed PBP in 2007 in the 80HR wave , and the 90HR in 2015.

I’d never completed a pre-qualifying in previous PBP years , but something about the wave of riders from sportives who were looking for bigger challlenges made me ride one late last year .

I know there’s  a lot of conjecture on here , so I thought I’d pick your brains . My thought process for only riding a 200k was I never predicted that 6500 riders would be so organised - looks like this is not the case !

So my question is ; What is the probability on me being able to pre-register for the 80HR wave ?

Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #238 on: 30 January, 2019, 02:17:05 pm »
Predictions can only be conjecture. I'd say that those who wanted to book their arrangements well in advance ensured that they would get a place with a 1000 or 1200 ride. They already had flights, hotels and annual leave sorted, so locking in at an early stage was a good idea. There was a bit less certainty with a 600. Those riders can be assumed to have no problem with the qualifiers.

The next groups to book will have to be doing their qualifiers in winter in the Northern Hemisphere, so we can expect a lot of the less experienced to drop out, especially as there is a niggling doubt about getting a place.

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #239 on: 30 January, 2019, 02:21:57 pm »
I’ve been reading this thread with interest . I’ve successfully completed PBP in 2007 in the 80HR wave , and the 90HR in 2015.

I’d never completed a pre-qualifying in previous PBP years , but something about the wave of riders from sportives who were looking for bigger challlenges made me ride one late last year .

I know there’s  a lot of conjecture on here , so I thought I’d pick your brains . My thought process for only riding a 200k was I never predicted that 6500 riders would be so organised - looks like this is not the case !

So my question is ; What is the probability on me being able to pre-register for the 80HR wave ?


Limited, but better than for any other start time. The 90hr start will fill first, then 90hr-preferred entrants will spill into the 84hr start. I don't know how many 90hr-preferred entrants will opt for an 80hr start if they have little chance of actually finishing in 80hr. The last of the 84hr-preferred entrants will spill into the 80hr start when the 84hr start fills.
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frankly frankie

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Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #240 on: 30 January, 2019, 02:24:55 pm »
ACP's loyalty should initially be to Audax organisations around the world, ...

Not to their compatriots?
when you're dead you're done, so let the good times roll

Ben T

Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #241 on: 30 January, 2019, 02:26:38 pm »
Are there (likely to be) more "special" places (e.g. recumbents, trikes, etc) available (later) than normal ones? If so, might we get people taking up trike, tandem or recumbent riding just as a way to get a place?

LittleWheelsandBig

  • Whimsy Rider
Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #242 on: 30 January, 2019, 02:28:00 pm »
I expect the special bikes for special folk start times will be the very last to fill, specifically the 84hr VS start. All of the discussions above have been about 'normal bikes'.

Folk self-identify into VS, so they don't need to ride a weirdie machine to be there, though some frowning might result (personally, I'd not let them start). Plenty of normal-ish but not-normal bikes have appeared in VS (Bromptons, Moultons, Drew Buck museum pieces) but I've ridden my 3 x Moulton PBPs in the normal 84hr or 90hr starts.
Wheel meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

mattc

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Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #243 on: 30 January, 2019, 02:29:57 pm »
ACP's loyalty should initially be to Audax organisations around the world, ...

Not to their compatriots?

He did say "should".
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Ben T

Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #244 on: 30 January, 2019, 02:30:49 pm »
I expect the special bikes for special folk start times will be the last to fill, specifically the 84hr VS start.
Yeah, so it might be as good a reason as any to get a 'special' bike :)

Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #245 on: 30 January, 2019, 02:32:37 pm »
Is there a definition of “special”?

Smeth

  • less Grimpeur than Whimpeur...
Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #246 on: 30 January, 2019, 02:35:17 pm »
There are some wise and experienced commentators here but nobody really knows. Best put a reminder in the calendar and forget about it until the day. And I've run out of popcorn. I wish I could practice the following: http://www.mindmojo.co/journal/2017/9/15/speculation-a-pointless-pastime

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Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #247 on: 30 January, 2019, 02:44:42 pm »
ACP's loyalty should initially be to Audax organisations around the world, ...

Not to their compatriots?

It was interesting in 2015 that French riders who wanted to ride together in the group A were spread around the 80 hour groups. I had a word with Richard Leon about that at the velodrome. The allocation of start places is very linked to pre-qualification, and isn't amenable to preference for local riders. I expect that any serious contenders did long rides in 2018.

One problem with treating the whole world the same is that riders from nearer the tropics DNF because they have no experience of the temperature extremes.

Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #248 on: 30 January, 2019, 02:54:58 pm »
Date   Time limit   Available places
18/08   80h00   617
18/08   90h00   1205
19/08   84h00   399

The number of available 90 hour places has gone up to 1226. It this trend continues there will be space for absolutely everyone.

simonp

Re: PBP Registration website
« Reply #249 on: 30 January, 2019, 02:57:23 pm »
Looks like a few have jumped to 80h. Sensible. Ahead of the bulge is an easier ride. I finished with more time in hand on 80h limit than on 90h.