Coronavirus and Audax

[chrisbainbridge]

You haven't answered any of the questions though, you just bring up cases of poor research papers... of which there are many... so what? That's why you need a good body of evidence before taking any decision, rather than running around like a headless chicken after every contradictory report...

What questions? Who to believe?  Make your own mind up.  This started because Dave said he would trust scientists.  I was trying to point out that they are no more trustworthy in the current new environment than anybody else.  The article on superspreaders I think started this first followed by my comments about aerosol droplets, and minimum virulent dose.

Like almost everything there is no easy answer.  The government is currently parroting the mantra that they are following the science.  Which Science?  Ours, the Germans, the Swedes?

[citoyen]

they are no more trustworthy in the current new environment than anybody else

What, not even Donald Trump?

[chrisbainbridge]

they are no more trustworthy in the current new environment than anybody else

What, not even Donald Trump?

Well he is not anybody of course.  He is an absolutely brilliant, natural research genius.

[S2L]

I take the completely opposite view...

After years of disgrace, when people have believed all sorts of crap, from the No Vax movement, to those who promote the Flat Earth, finally and I mean finally, people in the hour of need are going back to believing in the science... good science, bad science, but science! And that has to be taken as a great opportunity to get rid of imbeciles like Trump, Salvini, Bolsonaro...

[citoyen]

they are no more trustworthy in the current new environment than anybody else

What, not even Donald Trump?

Well he is not anybody of course.  He is an absolutely brilliant, natural research genius.

Fair point!

[Ben T]

You haven't answered any of the questions though, you just bring up cases of poor research papers... of which there are many... so what? That's why you need a good body of evidence before taking any decision, rather than running around like a headless chicken after every contradictory report...

What questions? Who to believe?  Make your own mind up.  This started because Dave said he would trust scientists.  I was trying to point out that they are no more trustworthy in the current new environment than anybody else.  The article on superspreaders I think started this first followed by my comments about aerosol droplets, and minimum virulent dose.

Like almost everything there is no easy answer.  The government is currently parroting the mantra that they are following the science.  Which Science?  Ours, the Germans, the Swedes?

I would trust a scientific consensus, but wouldn't trust anything that came out of somebody's mouth just because they were, or claimed to be, a "scientist".
On a slight possibly contrasting tangent, but possibly related, a relative once said she didn't trust wikipedia "because it was written by the general public", but that she would trust it more if it were written by "scholars". My response was, well who are these "scholars"? What's the definition of one?
If you had wikipedia that could only be edited by "scholars", it would still be able to be edited by anybody, but the consensus size would be shrunk to those that can be arsed to jump through the hoops of calling themselves a "scholar".

Maybe the same can be said for "scientists". What's the definition of a "scientist"? Is there a particular qualification you can achieve that affords you the ability to call yourself a "scientist", or is it just somebody who happens to practice science.

[Davef]

Much of Wikipedia is written by experts and it is peer reviewed.

Have a look at something like greens theorem. Try making a change to it and see how successful you are !


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[LMT]

What looks to be indefinite (subject to vaccine) social distancing measures, I don't see any calendar events in the UK being okayed any time soon. Might be different for overseas and here's hoping that DIY's are allowed, if not then I have my trainer and Zwift.

[Kim]

What looks to be indefinite (subject to vaccine) social distancing measures, I don't see any calendar events in the UK being okayed any time soon. Might be different for overseas and here's hoping that DIY's are allowed, if not then I have my trainer and Zwift.

There's always the intermediate option of Bike Rides™, which are likely to be permissible sooner (in as much as it isn't already).

[LMT]

What looks to be indefinite (subject to vaccine) social distancing measures, I don't see any calendar events in the UK being okayed any time soon. Might be different for overseas and here's hoping that DIY's are allowed, if not then I have my trainer and Zwift.

There's always the intermediate option of Bike Rides™, which are likely to be permissible sooner (in as much as it isn't already).

True dat, but I'm taking about Audax rides as per the OP.

[Cudzoziemiec]

If we foresee a future of compulsory social distancing without lockdown (in as much as we have "lockdown" anyway) for the next couple of years, then it's possible to see DIYs and solo perms happening and possibly small calendar events. The difficulty will be cafes – the ones that survive lockdown will be running at maybe one third capacity if there's to be at least 2m between customers.

[Davef]

My prediction is 1st july, outdoor sporting events with up to 1000 participants will  be allowed.


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[S2L]

If we foresee a future of compulsory social distancing without lockdown (in as much as we have "lockdown" anyway) for the next couple of years, then it's possible to see DIYs and solo perms happening and possibly small calendar events. The difficulty will be cafes – the ones that survive lockdown will be running at maybe one third capacity if there's to be at least 2m between customers.

The thing with perms and DIY is that it's a small group of hardy AUK riders who do a lot of them (probably a few hundred members). They would not justify a membership of 8,000 and of course they would be of no use to non AUK members...

In other words, without calendar events, AUK wouldn't survive for very long

[Greenbank]

If we foresee a future of compulsory social distancing without lockdown (in as much as we have "lockdown" anyway) for the next couple of years, then it's possible to see DIYs and solo perms happening and possibly small calendar events. The difficulty will be cafes – the ones that survive lockdown will be running at maybe one third capacity if there's to be at least 2m between customers.

The thing with perms and DIY is that it's a small group of hardy AUK riders who do a lot of them (probably a few hundred members). They would not justify a membership of 8,000 and of course they would be of no use to non AUK members...

In other words, without calendar events, AUK wouldn't survive for very long

AUK, and its members, would just adapt if this is going to be a long term situation. If DIYs/Perms became allowed then faced with no chance of calendar events returning, and not much other choice, some of the people who used to do them would come across to doing DIYs/Perms. Obviously not everyone as many do Audax for the companionship and social aspect but enough for something to be needed to handle the validation/etc until such a time that calendar events can restart.

I very much doubt calendar events will be banned forever, if so then the fate of AUK is the least of the world's problems.

[Jaded]

I very much doubt calendar events will be banned forever, if so then the fate of AUK is the least of the world's problems.

Also, organisations with healthy cash reserves for a rainy day will survive longer.

[De Sisti]

I take the completely opposite view...
.... get rid of imbeciles like Trump, Salvini, Bolsonaro... Orban, Aung San Suu Kyi........

[Wycombewheeler]

If we foresee a future of compulsory social distancing without lockdown (in as much as we have "lockdown" anyway) for the next couple of years, then it's possible to see DIYs and solo perms happening and possibly small calendar events. The difficulty will be cafes – the ones that survive lockdown will be running at maybe one third capacity if there's to be at least 2m between customers.

The thing with perms and DIY is that it's a small group of hardy AUK riders who do a lot of them (probably a few hundred members). They would not justify a membership of 8,000 and of course they would be of no use to non AUK members...

In other words, without calendar events, AUK wouldn't survive for very long

AUK, and its members, would just adapt if this is going to be a long term situation. If DIYs/Perms became allowed then faced with no chance of calendar events returning, and not much other choice, some of the people who used to do them would come across to doing DIYs/Perms. Obviously not everyone as many do Audax for the companionship and social aspect but enough for something to be needed to handle the validation/etc until such a time that calendar events can restart.

I very much doubt calendar events will be banned forever, if so then the fate of AUK is the least of the world's problems.

If such a change were to happen they audax uk will need to look at the handling of DIYs as I suspect the workload would exceed the capacity of the current arrangements  withe more volunteers with smaller areas each or some sort of automated approvals.  I wonder what percentage of DOY submissions are rejected.

[citoyen]

audax uk will need to look at the handling of DIYs as I suspect the workload would exceed the capacity of the current arrangements

I think it already did pre-lockdown, tbh.

[S2L]

If we foresee a future of compulsory social distancing without lockdown (in as much as we have "lockdown" anyway) for the next couple of years, then it's possible to see DIYs and solo perms happening and possibly small calendar events. The difficulty will be cafes – the ones that survive lockdown will be running at maybe one third capacity if there's to be at least 2m between customers.

The thing with perms and DIY is that it's a small group of hardy AUK riders who do a lot of them (probably a few hundred members). They would not justify a membership of 8,000 and of course they would be of no use to non AUK members...

In other words, without calendar events, AUK wouldn't survive for very long

AUK, and its members, would just adapt if this is going to be a long term situation. If DIYs/Perms became allowed then faced with no chance of calendar events returning, and not much other choice, some of the people who used to do them would come across to doing DIYs/Perms. Obviously not everyone as many do Audax for the companionship and social aspect but enough for something to be needed to handle the validation/etc until such a time that calendar events can restart.

I very much doubt calendar events will be banned forever, if so then the fate of AUK is the least of the world's problems.

If such a change were to happen they audax uk will need to look at the handling of DIYs as I suspect the workload would exceed the capacity of the current arrangements  withe more volunteers with smaller areas each or some sort of automated approvals.  I wonder what percentage of DOY submissions are rejected.

But it won't happen, because only those who are interested in awards and points do Perms and especially DIY... that number won't change. It's a minority.
I for one, have done a few DIY over the past couple of years because I was chasing an AAA award... done that, no longer interested = no more DIY... why should I pay 4 pounds and fill a form to go for a ride?

[Greenbank]

But it won't happen, because only those who are interested in awards and points do Perms and especially DIY... that number won't change. It's a minority.
I for one, have done a few DIY over the past couple of years because I was chasing an AAA award... done that, no longer interested = no more DIY... why should I pay 4 pounds and fill a form to go for a ride?

If you extrapolate from a single negative case then sure.

But in reality I'm guessing quite a few people are competitive enough (in a non-competitive hobby) to want to pay for validation of their rides, and AUK will almost certainly be able fulfill that given its volunteer run nature.

[S2L]

But it won't happen, because only those who are interested in awards and points do Perms and especially DIY... that number won't change. It's a minority.
I for one, have done a few DIY over the past couple of years because I was chasing an AAA award... done that, no longer interested = no more DIY... why should I pay 4 pounds and fill a form to go for a ride?

If you extrapolate from a single negative case then sure.

But in reality I'm guessing quite a few people are competitive enough (in a non-competitive hobby) to want to pay for validation of their rides, and AUK will almost certainly be able fulfill that given its volunteer run nature.

Are these people who weren't interested in points before, but suddenly they are?
Those who were not interested before, will keep not being interested, and they are the majority, those who were before will continue to be interested in points and might do more DIY to make up for the lack of calendar events, but alas, small numbers... hundreds, not thousands

[Ian H]

In other words, without calendar events, AUK wouldn't survive for very long

The only essential parts are an ACP correspondant and a few willing organisers.  All the rest is just fluff.

[Greenbank]

RTTY accounts for a reasonable churn in DIYs/Perms, especially in the winter months where many people don't have suitable local events (or the local event happens to fall on the wrong weekend, etc).

AUK started as hundreds, it can quite happily carry on as hundreds of people. It doesn't need thousands of active members (assuming calendar events can't be put back on, which is what we're talking about).

[S2L]

RTTY accounts for a reasonable churn in DIYs/Perms, especially in the winter months where many people don't have suitable local events (or the local event happens to fall on the wrong weekend, etc).

AUK started as hundreds, it can quite happily carry on as hundreds of people. It doesn't need thousands of active members (assuming calendar events can't be put back on, which is what we're talking about).

It probably didn't need thousands of members before the royal IT project, now it probably does to avoid bankruptcy? Doesn't the management of the site alone absorb 5 figures off the budget?

Anyway, the moral is that if 540 calendar events become zero for a sustained period of time, then it's game over, like it or not

[Greenbank]

RTTY accounts for a reasonable churn in DIYs/Perms, especially in the winter months where many people don't have suitable local events (or the local event happens to fall on the wrong weekend, etc).

AUK started as hundreds, it can quite happily carry on as hundreds of people. It doesn't need thousands of active members (assuming calendar events can't be put back on, which is what we're talking about).

It probably didn't need thousands of members before the royal IT project, now it probably does to avoid bankruptcy? Doesn't the management of the site alone absorb 5 figures off the budget?

No, I don't think there's any chance of bankruptcy. The previous company doing the IT project went into administration and there was talk of engaging one of the developers in a direct contract to carry on. If they've done that it may be interesting financially, but it won't be in that person's interest to bankrupt AUK to force payment of the contract. AUK still has money in the bank to pay for ongoing hosting fees (which are considerably less now that the other company isn't charging for support/maintenance).

Anyway, the moral is that if 540 calendar events become zero for a sustained period of time, then it's game over, like it or not

Again, I disagree. I think there will be a reasonable demand for DIYs/Perms should that become reasonable (in terms of social distancing guidelines) and the only choice for disgruntled Audaxers.