Surprising that this is not yet mentioned here like on the AUK forum.
New research overturns a myth that has persisted for nearly four decades -- that competing in endurance sports, like this weekend's London Marathon, suppresses the body's immune system and makes competitors more susceptible to infections.
Just ride.
Post missing or off limits to me, apparently.Surprising that this is not yet mentioned here like on the AUK forum.
That's because we already have a massive thread about it in the relevant board: https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=114653.0;topicseen
As a member of an at-risk group, it hasn't put me off cycling (which is generally beneficial to my lung health). But avoiding public transport to organised events may become prudent.
Just ride.Lack of sleep, poor diet and getting cold/wet may be factors in disease susceptability
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/04/180420122807.htmQuoteNew research overturns a myth that has persisted for nearly four decades -- that competing in endurance sports, like this weekend's London Marathon, suppresses the body's immune system and makes competitors more susceptible to infections.
Just ride.Lack of sleep, poor diet and getting cold/wet may be factors in disease susceptability
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/04/180420122807.htmQuoteNew research overturns a myth that has persisted for nearly four decades -- that competing in endurance sports, like this weekend's London Marathon, suppresses the body's immune system and makes competitors more susceptible to infections.
So as long as your audax doesnt involves those factors then the exercise is beneficial.
That's because we already have a massive thread about it in the relevant board: https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=114653.0;topicseenPost missing or off limits to me, apparently.
As a member of an at-risk group, it hasn't put me off cycling (which is generally beneficial to my lung health). But avoiding public transport to organised events may become prudent.
No the original post asked specifically about increased risk due to post exercise immunity suppression.Just ride.Lack of sleep, poor diet and getting cold/wet may be factors in disease susceptability
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/04/180420122807.htmQuoteNew research overturns a myth that has persisted for nearly four decades -- that competing in endurance sports, like this weekend's London Marathon, suppresses the body's immune system and makes competitors more susceptible to infections.
So as long as your audax doesnt involves those factors then the exercise is beneficial.
Though all of this misses the point that it's everyone's responsibility to slow down and minimise the peak. If workplaces are closed, schools are closed, etc, then I can't see how running popular Audax events visiting cafes, village halls etc is appropriate.
I agree with Simon. If you work on the assumption that at least one person turning up will be a carrier, whether they know it yet or not, I find it hard to see how you can go ahead with any large social gathering. Unless your goal is to thin the herd of old duffers.Why would you work on that assumption? Even with 1000 cases in the country (and we are still some way below that) then then is a 99.8% chance that 100 random people will all be uninfected.
Ride yo bike on yo own.
(I'd say cancel any indoor hospitality, but that just moves the problem outside...)
We are some way beyond 1000 cases. The reported number is days behind new infection and is doubling every 3.5 days.
Surprising that this is not yet mentioned here like on the AUK forum.
That's because we already have a massive thread about it in the relevant board: https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=114653.0;topicseen
As a member of an at-risk group, it hasn't put me off cycling (which is generally beneficial to my lung health). But avoiding public transport to organised events may become prudent.
Response to the Coronavirus
With coronavirus dominating the news at the moment, we’ve spent time considering options for the Dirty Reiver weekend and have consulted with partners and landowners. We are determined that the event should go ahead on April 17-19th and know that the majority of riders want that. We don’t underestimate the seriousness of the virus threat, but take the view that while the experts don’t think that a ban on events with large crowds is necessary, an outdoor event such as the Dirty Reiver is justified. Cancelling would have a financial impact on the small businesses and suppliers we work with, along with hundreds of riders who have invested time, effort and money on training and logistics. The demographic of the event does not include those at increased risk from the effects of Corvid19.
Measures planned to reduce transmission risk
Extending registration opening, from Midday to 11pm on Friday, to reduce crowding.
Communicate rider numbers in advance and separate registration by rider number.
Increase hand washing/sanitisation facilities and suggest riders bring hand sanitiser
Give a start window of 30 mins and separate starters, reducing crowding,
Have sealed foodstuffs served in portions at feeds - no shared servings etc.
Provide additional cleaning equipment etc for staff at feeds
Ensure there are additional bins and staff around the castle and reduce litter.
Have a wrapped/sealed finishers meal
Use the final rider briefing to suggest other measures that should be taken by individuals.
At all times we would advise riders to follow any NHS/Medical guidance given with respect to your own health and that of other riders, staff and local people.
It is fairly clear that the UK Government will move from phase 1 of their plan (Containment) to phase 2 (Delay) in the near future. It is far from clear what measures will then be adopted however. With the situation likely to change several times before the event, we will wait and act upon guidance in place just prior to event weekend.
Entries, transfers and refunds
We have done as much as we can recently to accommodate transfers of entries, but the entry system is now locked down with numbers and other goods ordered and for timing, medics and catering to be set up. After 23rd March, we become liable for much greater costs and will be reviewing our actions carefully then.
If the event cannot go ahead in April, all entries will automatically be transferred to a new date later in the year. Riders will then have time to consider a number of options:
Attend the Dirty Reiver on the new postponed date (date TBC).
Transfer to another of our events - the Frontier300 (+£35) or The Distance (where places are available). www.frontier300.cc or www.thedistance.cc
Apply for a refund.
In the event of postponement, accommodation would need to be sorted out with the provider. Tepee bookings and overflow camping through Northern Star would be transferred or refunded. Kielder campsite are looking at availability for new dates and we are working out refunds with Steve at the campsite - please do not contact him about refunds.
Thank you for your support and understanding in what is a challenging period.
It's been covered, with the specific advice from the Board, on the AUK Forum for the last 10 days. http://forum.audax.uk/index.php?topic=1821.0 (http://forum.audax.uk/index.php?topic=1821.0)
The advice ends with:
"For the moment, we will be keeping a watching brief on government guidance and on any relevant recommendations made by Sport England or similar bodies. We will pass on any specific information to members and organisers via this forum."
There will almost certainly be another Board conference call as more advice from government does emerge but, at this stage, it's hard to see what guidance AUK can offer except for organisers and members to give taking part the same consideration that they would when considering any activities that will bring them into close contact with others.
Apparently if you sit on the back of a group and never take a turn then you are cycling in a stream of exhaled droplets. if you spend more time at the front you are safe.Masks are best worn by those with the virus to protect those without, they are very poor at protecting the wearer, as the virus will stay on the damp mask which is positioned over your mouth and nose.
Instead I have bought a mask.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
The Dutch 300km brevet this weekend is going ahead as planned, with a note on the registration page for participants to act sensibly.
We are some way beyond 1000 cases. The reported number is days behind new infection and is doubling every 3.5 days.
Plus side for me is, if loads of the events I've entered are delayed, I might get to ride them if my leg ever recovers....
Plus side for me is, if loads of the events I've entered are delayed, I might get to ride them if my leg ever recovers....
Must be a bugger watching your fitness leech away.
Plus side for me is, if loads of the events I've entered are delayed, I might get to ride them if my leg ever recovers....
Must be a bugger watching your fitness leech away.
I feel sorry for many who are significantly through their RRtY attempt.
I've got 9/12 of the AUK RRtY. Am supposed to be doing 10/12 on Monday...
J
I feel sorry for many who are significantly through their RRtY attempt.
I've got 9/12 of the AUK RRtY. Am supposed to be doing 10/12 on Monday...
J
To mitigate effects
1. Postal start and finish
2. Staggered start times
3. Only information controls
4. Self sufficiency for food
.... but then it isn’t really an audax anymore.
I think the autumn is going to be busy.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Apparently if you sit on the back of a group and never take a turn then you are cycling in a stream of exhaled droplets. if you spend more time at the front you are safe.Masks are best worn by those with the virus to protect those without, they are very poor at protecting the wearer, as the virus will stay on the damp mask which is positioned over your mouth and nose.
Instead I have bought a mask.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
We did indeed decide a similar course of action for the Heerlen 300 on saturdayAlso falls under the government decree of all sports events cancelled regardless of size. So no choice
-only pre-entry
-only electronic payment online
-staggered start
-free controls
The Belgian governments decision of yesterday late evening changed all this, all bars and restaurants are closed, all non essential shops are closed during the weekend. All sports manifestations regardless of size are cancelled.
So we had to cancel as well. Not the conditions you want an early season 300 to be held under.
No reason why they can't do a 200km DIY comprising a figure of 8 with two 100km loops from their house. No need to stop anywhere
I feel sorry for many who are significantly through their RRtY attempt.
I've got 9/12 of the AUK RRtY. Am supposed to be doing 10/12 on Monday...
J
DIY 200km by GPS, food taken with you. Water could be a problem in hot weather.
Don't touch anything when out there.
I cant help thinking that this is a problem that is only going to get worse over the coming weeks/months resulting in further restrictions as and when deemed necessary, therefore putting any planned events for the future in jeopardy.
I have a very strong feeling that two weeks from now things will be very different.Yes.
DIY 200km by GPS, food taken with you. Water could be a problem in hot weather.
Don't touch anything when out there.
That’s what I’ve been doing since PBP, going out around 3am and doing around 120km, home for brekky, then out again for 80km. Doing Audax on the cheap (not working). Hoping to do some calendar events later on for an SR.No reason why they can't do a 200km DIY comprising a figure of 8 with two 100km loops from their house. No need to stop anywhere
I feel sorry for many who are significantly through their RRtY attempt.
I've got 9/12 of the AUK RRtY. Am supposed to be doing 10/12 on Monday...
J
Sensible words from Kingston Wheelers re Sunday's Gently Bentley.That's more like it. Good for them resisting the herd panic mentality.
"Currently we are still planning to run the event. We are though keeping a close eye on what is happening and what the government are recommending.
We would like to ask any riders if they are feeling unwell not to ride.
The point might be that you will be coming into contact with different people to those you normally meet.
And you might be the carrier.
Sensible words from Kingston Wheelers re Sunday's Gently Bentley.That's more like it. Good for them resisting the herd panic mentality.
"Currently we are still planning to run the event. We are though keeping a close eye on what is happening and what the government are recommending.
We would like to ask any riders if they are feeling unwell not to ride.
No reason why they can't do a 200km DIY comprising a figure of 8 with two 100km loops from their house. No need to stop anywhere
Sensible words from Kingston Wheelers re Sunday's Gently Bentley.That's more like it. Good for them resisting the herd panic mentality.
"Currently we are still planning to run the event. We are though keeping a close eye on what is happening and what the government are recommending.
We would like to ask any riders if they are feeling unwell not to ride.
I've just done 12 hours on trains to get back from Copenhagen. I timed it well, just as I was leaving Germany I got the news that Denmark is closing it's border effective 1200 tomorrow.
Where ever you stand on the rights and wrongs of cancelling or continuing with events, there is one thing that this thread tells me. Entries will be will fewer compared to normal. Whilst I have cancelled my event alongside others, I wish my continuing colleagues and entrants the best - just stay healthy and look after yourselves.
I would just ask people to refrain from being negative to others who support or cancel future events. Every one has their own legitimate reason for their decision and it is not for you to judge. Courtesy is free.
I would just ask people to refrain from being negative to others who support or cancel future events. Every one has their own legitimate reason for their decision and it is not for you to judge. Courtesy is free.
I would just ask people to refrain from being negative to others who support or cancel future events. Every one has their own legitimate reason for their decision and it is not for you to judge. Courtesy is free.
This.
I was about to say the same after observing the talk on Facebook...
If an org cancels, they’ve not done so lightly, and only done so because they believe it’s the right thing to do
If they don’t cancel, you can make a personal choice to ride or not
It’s only a bike ride, people seem to be losing perspective!
To all AUK organisers.
Sport England issued a statement regarding sporting events in light of the measures announced by the Government following the COBRA meeting on Thursday 12 March. Follow this link for the latest advice updates:-
https://www.sportengland.org/news/coronavirus-information-sector
AUK’s specific advice:-
Ensure you & your helpers pay scrupulous attention to hygiene at controls you organise.
Check that none of your helpers have any symptoms (as described in official advice), and do not allow them to attend. Similarly for yourself, hand over duties to someone else if you have symptoms. Elderly or otherwise vulnerable helpers should be asked to stay away.
Minimise contact with others, e.g. cards could be laid out on a table for self-collection.
Encourage riders to use hand-washing facilities, and ensure these are adequately stocked.
If your event attracts a very large entry, consider staggering start-times to reduce the numbers at any one time.
If you feel that your event poses too great a risk to health for any particular reason, you should discuss the possibility of cancellation or other measures with your regional delegate. AUK will offer support for your decision.
AUK may issue further updates as the situation develops.
Organisers are advised to include the following in communications with their entrants:-
Do not attend an event if you have any symptoms (as described in official advice), or have been in recent contact with any sufferers.
At controls and during the event, observe good hygiene procedures (hand-washing, minimal personal contact, avoid crowding any area).
After the finish it may be prudent to leave promptly, or find space away from others.
AUK may issue further updates as the situation develops.
13 March 2020
^this
Your audax points arent, perhaps, as important as you might think they are
It would not have been because of the organiser. This is an illness and everyone is doing the best they can. Would you apply the same reasoning to someone who contracted seasonal flu from an audax to their granny? What about someone being killed by a motorist on an audax, is that the organisers fault too?
One of the things to consider. How would you feel in x weeks time when you find out that someone's gran died, and vector/contact tracing puts you on the transmission path. As an event organiser, that's a lot of people "because of you".
J
It would not have been because of the organiser. This is an illness and everyone is doing the best they can. Would you apply the same reasoning to someone who contracted seasonal flu from an audax to their granny? What about someone being killed by a motorist on an audax, is that the organisers fault too?
One of the things to consider. How would you feel in x weeks time when you find out that someone's gran died, and vector/contact tracing puts you on the transmission path. As an event organiser, that's a lot of people "because of you".
J
Maybe, just maybe, it's time for you to stop telling everyone to ignore the national strategy to manage the problem and to stop stoking fear and guilt onto people for absolutely no good reason. Holding an organiser liable for the impact of a worldwide illness is barmy.
Doubling time is now 2 days
Maybe, just maybe, it is time to stop thinking about yourself.Was that aimed at me ? I am considering carefully what I do. I consider cycling to be low risk. I have drastically reduced working for the time being because I consider that higher risk so I have a bit of time on my hands. I myself would doubtless be fine but other family members would not. I am also using cafes where there is outside seating as the people running the cafes depend on that income. I have adjusted my behaviour in line with what I am told both publicly and privately. Thank you for your words of advice.
Maybe it's time for you to think what you can do to guarantee that you dont make the situation worse.
I've returned from Mallorca this evening; the island is shutting down today all the bars and restaurants have closed we met a lady who's been sent home from work unpaid for at least 2 weeks. The airport will probably close Monday ( we weren't even allowed to pay the shuttle bus driver it was free)
They have 18 cases on the island...
Interesting that the English voice sounds rather British but makes clearly non-native grammatical mistakes (eg "stay a safe distance with..."). Okay, maybe it's not really that interesting but it's probably better than depressing yourself with viral doom.I've returned from Mallorca this evening; the island is shutting down today all the bars and restaurants have closed we met a lady who's been sent home from work unpaid for at least 2 weeks. The airport will probably close Monday ( we weren't even allowed to pay the shuttle bus driver it was free)
They have 18 cases on the island...
Apparently Benidorm https://twitter.com/privowen/status/1238916943802961920?s=20
Maybe, just maybe, it's time for you to stop telling everyone to ignore the national strategy to manage the problem and to stop stoking fear and guilt onto people for absolutely no good reason. Holding an organiser liable for the impact of a worldwide illness is barmy.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/
-All over 70s to be put in lockdown, at home, in next few weeks...for 4 months
-Closure of pubs, bars and restaurants - some time after next weekend's ban on mass gatherings
Not sure if I need to spell it out anymore, do I?
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/
-All over 70s to be put in lockdown, at home, in next few weeks...for 4 months
-Closure of pubs, bars and restaurants - some time after next weekend's ban on mass gatherings
Not sure if I need to spell it out anymore, do I?
Imean you don't, because you're not an epidemiologist. There is no knowing if these lockdowns will be effective in beating the disease, they could make things worse by 'squashing' it for it to come bouncing back again once the lockdown ends (which it inevitably will)..
The contexts which have been most effective in managing the illness, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong, have used quarantines etc highly selectively. They use proportionate and targeted screening and testing. Taiwan has controlled 'mass events' but their definition is based on the WHO definition of an event of 1,000 people or more, against which 40-60 people starting in batches from a car park is a pretty dubious comparison. Further in the Taiwanese government advice they say that events which have a distance between participants of a metre or more, and are outside, the risk is low. See https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/Detail/yAhL46r86lz1uIi4r2DqSQ?typeid=158 for their full large scale public gathering guidance. And https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-best-response.html?auth=login-google for an excellent write-up of the effectiveness of the Singaporean, Hong Kong and Taiwanese management plans
My personal opinion is that Boris' inertia is dangerously complacent.
Anyone can get some statisticians to support their side of the argument.
Many people better-qualified than me are reducing at least some of their social activities.
I am over 60, as are many of my friends. Most of us have 'underlying health conditions' but I don't see myself as 'old'.
If I get poorly then that's my hard luck.
For 20% though it wont be. They will need hospital care, and of them 20% will need ICU care, or they die. Imagine being that doctor who has to decide who lives and who dies, and all because as a society we had not observed social distancing, hygiene, or social exclusion. The rate of infection depends on our behaviour choices and not the virus.
Crude stats from Wuhan.For 20% though it wont be. They will need hospital care, and of them 20% will need ICU care, or they die. Imagine being that doctor who has to decide who lives and who dies, and all because as a society we had not observed social distancing, hygiene, or social exclusion. The rate of infection depends on our behaviour choices and not the virus.
The above is based on what?
If I get poorly then that's my hard luck.
If I get poorly then that's my hard luck.
Unbelievable.
Me me me me me me.
It's also the hard luck of the people you infect in the days you are going around without symptoms.
To be fair, I do not think anybody knows what is going to happen. The government response if successful will allow us to save a few more people.
We do not know if a short sharp awful shut down like Italy is better in the long run or the UK plan. All our experts we whistling in the dark.
If I get poorly then that's my hard luck.
Unbelievable.
Me me me me me me.
It's also the hard luck of the people you infect in the days you are going around without symptoms.
Even 3 days ago, an awful lot of people seemed to think it was no big deal.
Surely DIYs solve that problem?^this
Your audax points arent, perhaps, as important as you might think they are
I think it would be a good time for AUK to suspend RRtY. It will stop people taking unnecessary risks...
J
Surely DIYs solve that problem?^this
Your audax points arent, perhaps, as important as you might think they are
I think it would be a good time for AUK to suspend RRtY. It will stop people taking unnecessary risks...
J
nice out of context quote from a post two days ago. It's pretty clear that I meant if I'm poorly in the course of doing my job or going to an NHS donor centre to give blood it's my hard luck that I can't do the ride (which is currently set to go ahead) because I'll be laid up in bed, not that I intend to go and spread an illness.If I get poorly then that's my hard luck.
Unbelievable.
Me me me me me me.
It's also the hard luck of the people you infect in the days you are going around without symptoms.
Me riding a bike solo isn't a risk to anybody else and traffic has been dramatically reduced in the past week. I can’t see any reason for me to stop riding a DIY. Riding solo isn’t a sport, just me self-isolating on my bike.
No you went back to posts from 2 days ago to make a cheap shot. Because you're a dick.
Plenty of wind bags on this thread (typical of YACF I must say).
This is a plea that I have made previously and shall repeat.
Please let AUK and event organisers make their decisions accordingly. They have their rationales for continuing, ceasing or adjusting events. It is not for anyone here to be critical of their decisions.
I see that most posters that have never taken on any organisational responsibility yet are prepared to criticise those that do. Audaxes are managed and operated by volunteers who take on responsibility for the event. They are not public services to which are entitled. If you don't like that fact, pack your bags and ride commercially operated sportives instead.
Plenty of wind bags on this thread (typical of YACF I must say).
This is a plea that I have made previously and shall repeat.
Please let AUK and event organisers make their decisions accordingly. They have their rationales for continuing, ceasing or adjusting events. It is not for anyone here to be critical of their decisions.
I see that most posters that have never taken on any organisational responsibility yet are prepared to criticise those that do. Audaxes are managed and operated by volunteers who take on responsibility for the event. They are not public services to which are entitled. If you don't like that fact, pack your bags and ride commercially operated sportives instead.
Nobody is criticising audax organisers. Most of this is about personal responsibility and consequences
....and, it's a forum. People come here to discuss. If people choose to criticise decisions made by AUK and organisers that is their prerogative, just as you, and maybe me will be able to defend them, accordingly.
I'm guessing all of this will be moot at some point soon anyway.
I wouldn't be surprised that, within a month or so, the advice from the Government / Sport England / British Cycling / etc means that even recreational cycling is strongly discouraged (or even banned as it is in Italy as of March 9th).
I'm guessing all of this will be moot at some point soon anyway.Taiwan has had a highly effective management of the illness and cycling was not banned. Their audaxes continued and are indeed still going on. Korea seems to be doing the same http://www.korearandonneurs.kr/
I wouldn't be surprised that, within a month or so, the advice from the Government / Sport England / British Cycling / etc means that even recreational cycling is strongly discouraged (or even banned as it is in Italy as of March 9th).
France has banned sporting events with more than 10 participants.
Looks like it is still possible get a flight to Taiwan.
Surely DIYs solve that problem?
I understand the government strategy, although there is little detail of next steps apart from ‘leaks’ to Peston - a poor way of governing imho. I believe the strategy is a risky one and that, when this is past (could be a fairly long time) the impact and decision processes should be reviewed. We are stuck where we are.
There are a lot of factors here to think about, and only a few we can manage as individuals. What we can do is whatever we can to slow the spread and minimise the peak - that means limiting our social contact. The government policy to date hasn’t helped, because it makes working from home less easy than it might be for those that can and hasn’t set out how low paid workers will be supported. That may come.
I am convinced that doctors will be presented with horrible choices to make about who gets treatment and that the aftermath will be one of shock for all those left. I think that will be a consequence of both the number of deaths that will touch the whole nation, and world, and the helplessness we face in dealing with numbers. That’s not anybody’s fault really and I will be the first to say that I wouldn’t want to be in the prime minister’s shoes at the moment.
Be kind to each other.
I wonder if this is the time to think about a national wage, paid to all irrespective of work. My understanding of where it has been trialled is that it is generally positive.
ICU doctors make choices everyday on who to admit but never at this level. generally they may delay somebodies surgery by a few days or a week. But these decisions will be orders of magnitude greater and I worry about their longterm mental health. Knowing that you have condemned 500 people to death in a couple of months must be very hard.
^assumes immunity after infection
Also assumes no vaccine, which is a year or more away, admittedly.
ICU doctors make choices everyday on who to admit but never at this level. generally they may delay somebodies surgery by a few days or a week. But these decisions will be orders of magnitude greater and I worry about their longterm mental health. Knowing that you have condemned 500 people to death in a couple of months must be very hard.
I will continue to commute to work as it is all on backroads and I know the roads well but I have decided in the last few hours that i will not be undertaking any long rides outside until this is over.
And I will continue to ride my bike. I live about 200m from open countryside. I haven't ever needed hospitalisation for anything, so the risk of me needing it because of an incident on the bike during this crisis is extremely low. I will ride DIY-by-GPS, or perm-by-GPS, and carry everything I need, plus the Big Bottles. I probably won't be riding another calendar event for the foreseeable — not to avoid catching Covid-19, but in case I am an asymptomatic carrier.
My point is this: we all need to catch this — just not all at the same time. And to catch it, we do all need to continue to interact with other people, just limited in order to control the rate of infection, not the overall sum of infection.
And I will continue to ride my bike. I live about 200m from open countryside. I haven't ever needed hospitalisation for anything, so the risk of me needing it because of an incident on the bike during this crisis is extremely low. I will ride DIY-by-GPS, or perm-by-GPS, and carry everything I need, plus the Big Bottles. I probably won't be riding another calendar event for the foreseeable — not to avoid catching Covid-19, but in case I am an asymptomatic carrier.
My point is this: we all need to catch this — just not all at the same time. And to catch it, we do all need to continue to interact with other people, just limited in order to control the rate of infection, not the overall sum of infection.
I think i agree with everything you have said. I think the only point we disagree on is the riding outside long distance. For many of us on this board our cycling is part of our mental self care and therefore important. i agree that there is little or no chance of developing Covid on a DIY. So far you have not had a need for hospital attendance whilst cycling. However IF you do have an accident then you will clog up a bed which otherwise would be used to save somebody else. The odds are very low but at 61 i would like to be given the opportunity of a bed if needed. Currently in Mial I believe I would not even be offered anything more than IV fluids.
And there are as-great risks from a traffic accident (as an occupant), as a pedestrian being mown down by a vehicle, or slipping over in the shower. I'm yet to see mention of a ban on walking, driving ... or baths :hand:
From our perspective, with an immune-compromised person in the house, the UK government approach whiffs of ‘the weak are disposable/ can’t be saved anyway’.
In Italy they are all complying without moaning, so stiff upper lip <mod>bit removed for niceness. It is a truly difficult situation, but we are a community. Be nice</mod>
With some people being symptomless and symptoms similar to other diseases (flu) and without widespread testing, nobody can be sure who has already had the virus and is presumably immune. The only viable option is to assume that everybody is infected at all times, including yourself, for the next year. Hopefully a viable vaccine comes along.
In Italy they are all complying without moaning, so stiff upper lip <mod>bit removed for niceness. It is a truly difficult situation, but we are a community. Be nice</mod>
Italy is an exception — their intensive care facilities are already overwhelmed many times over. If we (the UK) do get to that point then, as I said, I reserve the right to change my mind.
Right now I don't think I'm being selfish with my "I'll continue to ride my bike" line: I am being pragmatic and basing it on rational and reasonable argument and real data. The risks from riding my bike are no greater than walking to the shops, or standing in a bath to have a shower, probably less-so the latter. I am taking the corners a little gentler, just to be on the safe side. And by "risks" I mean "medical assistance for a serious injury".
The risks of NOT riding for any length of the time are long-term health issues and general loss of well-being. I don't own a turbo, that's what the outdoors is for.
If we all stick to challenging people's attitude, and remember they are challenging our attitude, then no need to get personal or abusive...
The attitude I'd like to challenge is:
"It has not happened here / to me,
therefore it might never happen,
therefore I should carry on as normal (within the law),
and NOT panic!"
IMO that is bound to speed the spread of the virus, compared to:
"I'm not going to take any unnecessary risks, to my health or that of others."
Unfortunately in the incredibly unlikely scenario that immunity is not achieved post recovery we are screwed as that means no vaccine will be possible either.^assumes immunity after infection
Yes it does. That is the entire basis of the Government's thinking. If immunity is found to NOT be a by-product of successfully fighting the infection then the entire policy is completely wrong and will be found to be so.
Surely DIYs solve that problem?^this
Your audax points arent, perhaps, as important as you might think they are
I think it would be a good time for AUK to suspend RRtY. It will stop people taking unnecessary risks...
J
In Italy and Spain you can't cycle for sport anymore... it is perceived to be an activity that might put you at risk to end up in A&E...
Of course then it comes down to what is cycling as a sport... which basically is lycra Vs non lycra
Is there a "Coronavirus and not Audax" thread anywhere?
talking of general cycling I was due to go on a 4 day cycling trip to Paris in 2 weeks which is clearly not going to happen, however it's confounded by;
1. I can't cancel and claim on travel insurance yet because FCO advice (and even the French government's) has not actually yet advised against it.
2. My flights / ferry can be changed for free to a later date but I've no idea if / when I'll be able to reschedule within the next 13 days.
3. 2 of the nights I've booked in hotels are now non-refundable via the booking website so no idea if I'll get a refund on them.
4. If France comes out with Italy and Spain and bans all leisure cycling I clearly can't get about while there, but would the insurance company class that as a valid reason to cancel?
I think a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money in every aspect from travel to work income, and the insurers / PTB will weasel out of it.
I’m an actuary, not an epidemiologist - although I nearly became one back in the day. We have similar and slightly overlapping skill sets.My understanding is the intention is to have a peak in 10 to 11 weeks time so that we are into the long tail before the next seasonal flu season starts. The peak has to be flat enough not to overwhelm nhs but not too flat for the isolation of vulnerable people to be too long (12 weeks is deemed acceptable). The timing of announcements will be designed to keep the rate just right, not too high and not too low.
I am being cautious. I have stopped riding my bike as I don’t want to be turned away from A&E if I have an off, but it turns out to be full. I expect that, all being well for me, I’ll start riding again towards the end of the year or into next year.
I understand the government strategy, although there is little detail of next steps apart from ‘leaks’ to Peston - a poor way of governing imho. I believe the strategy is a risky one and that, when this is past (could be a fairly long time) the impact and decision processes should be reviewed. We are stuck where we are.
There are a lot of factors here to think about, and only a few we can manage as individuals. What we can do is whatever we can to slow the spread and minimise the peak - that means limiting our social contact. The government policy to date hasn’t helped, because it makes working from home less easy than it might be for those that can and hasn’t set out how low paid workers will be supported. That may come.
One area that we don’t know is whether the modelling suggests that a very long spread would lead to more deaths overall as a consequence of the NHS being overwhelmed for 12-16 months rather than 3-4. It’s easy to assume economics has driven this just because we don’t like the government etc, but we don’t actually know.
I am convinced that doctors will be presented with horrible choices to make about who gets treatment and that the aftermath will be one of shock for all those left. I think that will be a consequence of both the number of deaths that will touch the whole nation, and world, and the helplessness we face in dealing with numbers. That’s not anybody’s fault really and I will be the first to say that I wouldn’t want to be in the prime minister’s shoes at the moment.
Be kind to each other.
:thumbsup:If we all stick to challenging people's attitude, and remember they are challenging our attitude, then no need to get personal or abusive...
The attitude I'd like to challenge is:
"It has not happened here / to me,
therefore it might never happen,
therefore I should carry on as normal (within the law),
and NOT panic!"
IMO that is bound to speed the spread of the virus, compared to:
"I'm not going to take any unnecessary risks, to my health or that of others."
If we all stick to challenging people's attitude, and remember they are challenging our attitude, then no need to get personal or abusive...
The attitude I'd like to challenge is:
"It has not happened here / to me,
therefore it might never happen,
therefore I should carry on as normal (within the law),
and NOT panic!"
IMO that is bound to speed the spread of the virus, compared to:
"I'm not going to take any unnecessary risks, to my health or that of others."
Is all cycling carrying an 'unnecessary risk', with the impending clinical crisis then?
It’s easy to assume economics has driven this just because we don’t like the government etc, but we don’t actually know.
Is there a "Coronavirus and not Audax" thread anywhere?
Yes there is and its growing exponentially and be warned it's not a comfortable read, especially the more recent pages.
This is a link to page 50 with postings on the 10th March.
https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=114653.1225 (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=114653.1225)
You have to 'opt in' using your personal settings on yacf to see this thread, because it has been deemed (by somebody) to fall under the 'political' sub-forum, a place where not everyone is nice all the time.
I'm no medic but I think assuming that catching this will confer immunity is a big assume. If I believed that as an 'at-risk category' person my best strategy (a couple of weeks ago, now its too late) would have been to lay myself open to infection ASAP.QuoteIt’s easy to assume economics has driven this just because we don’t like the government etc, but we don’t actually know.
A few people have been unable to avoid making political points on this thread and I wish they wouldn't. I know it's difficult because we are talking about 'government advice' but even so there's another place for scoring political points, not here.Is there a "Coronavirus and not Audax" thread anywhere?
Yes there is and its growing exponentially and be warned it's not a comfortable read, especially the more recent pages.
This is a link to page 50 with postings on the 10th March.
https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=114653.1225 (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=114653.1225)
You have to 'opt in' using your personal settings on yacf to see this thread, because it has been deemed (by somebody) to fall under the 'political' sub-forum, a place where not everyone is nice all the time.
QuoteIt’s easy to assume economics has driven this just because we don’t like the government etc, but we don’t actually know.
A few people have been unable to avoid making political points on this thread and I wish they wouldn't. I know it's difficult because we are talking about 'government advice' but even so there's another place for scoring political points, not here.
I’m an actuary, not an epidemiologist - although I nearly became one back in the day. We have similar and slightly overlapping skill sets.My understanding is the intention is to have a peak in 10 to 11 weeks time so that we are into the long tail before the next seasonal flu season starts. The peak has to be flat enough not to overwhelm nhs but not too flat for the isolation of vulnerable people to be too long (12 weeks is deemed acceptable). The timing of announcements will be designed to keep the rate just right, not too high and not too low.
I am being cautious. I have stopped riding my bike as I don’t want to be turned away from A&E if I have an off, but it turns out to be full. I expect that, all being well for me, I’ll start riding again towards the end of the year or into next year.
I understand the government strategy, although there is little detail of next steps apart from ‘leaks’ to Peston - a poor way of governing imho. I believe the strategy is a risky one and that, when this is past (could be a fairly long time) the impact and decision processes should be reviewed. We are stuck where we are.
There are a lot of factors here to think about, and only a few we can manage as individuals. What we can do is whatever we can to slow the spread and minimise the peak - that means limiting our social contact. The government policy to date hasn’t helped, because it makes working from home less easy than it might be for those that can and hasn’t set out how low paid workers will be supported. That may come.
One area that we don’t know is whether the modelling suggests that a very long spread would lead to more deaths overall as a consequence of the NHS being overwhelmed for 12-16 months rather than 3-4. It’s easy to assume economics has driven this just because we don’t like the government etc, but we don’t actually know.
I am convinced that doctors will be presented with horrible choices to make about who gets treatment and that the aftermath will be one of shock for all those left. I think that will be a consequence of both the number of deaths that will touch the whole nation, and world, and the helplessness we face in dealing with numbers. That’s not anybody’s fault really and I will be the first to say that I wouldn’t want to be in the prime minister’s shoes at the moment.
Be kind to each other.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
I'm no medic but I think assuming that catching this will confer immunity is a big assume.If you are infected by a virus and the infection lasts more than a few days (and you survive), then then adaptive immune system has kicked in. It will remember this response if you are infected even years later. This is also how vaccinations work, by injecting something that “looks like” the virus but does not make you ill the adaptive immune system is set up ready. The main problem is viruses mutate so the sars-cov-2 virus responsible for the COVID19 disease may change so that a future version is not recognised. This does not seem to be the case at the moment.
@ mike
Of course economics is a factor! It has to be a factor, it's important. The internet is full of crap about Cummings using this as an opportunity to advance his eugenics ideology and Johnson secretly rubbing his hands at the possibility of the virus solving the social care crisis and the pensions deficit.
Truth is, food still needs to be delivered to supermarkets, utility companies still need to function, banks still need to operate or we are in deeper shit.
But anyway, the audax board is for endless squabbling about arcane rules, points, and massive failures of financial management, not politics. :P
It is going to be grim.I’m an actuary, not an epidemiologist - although I nearly became one back in the day. We have similar and slightly overlapping skill sets.My understanding is the intention is to have a peak in 10 to 11 weeks time so that we are into the long tail before the next seasonal flu season starts. The peak has to be flat enough not to overwhelm nhs but not too flat for the isolation of vulnerable people to be too long (12 weeks is deemed acceptable). The timing of announcements will be designed to keep the rate just right, not too high and not too low.
I am being cautious. I have stopped riding my bike as I don’t want to be turned away from A&E if I have an off, but it turns out to be full. I expect that, all being well for me, I’ll start riding again towards the end of the year or into next year.
I understand the government strategy, although there is little detail of next steps apart from ‘leaks’ to Peston - a poor way of governing imho. I believe the strategy is a risky one and that, when this is past (could be a fairly long time) the impact and decision processes should be reviewed. We are stuck where we are.
There are a lot of factors here to think about, and only a few we can manage as individuals. What we can do is whatever we can to slow the spread and minimise the peak - that means limiting our social contact. The government policy to date hasn’t helped, because it makes working from home less easy than it might be for those that can and hasn’t set out how low paid workers will be supported. That may come.
One area that we don’t know is whether the modelling suggests that a very long spread would lead to more deaths overall as a consequence of the NHS being overwhelmed for 12-16 months rather than 3-4. It’s easy to assume economics has driven this just because we don’t like the government etc, but we don’t actually know.
I am convinced that doctors will be presented with horrible choices to make about who gets treatment and that the aftermath will be one of shock for all those left. I think that will be a consequence of both the number of deaths that will touch the whole nation, and world, and the helplessness we face in dealing with numbers. That’s not anybody’s fault really and I will be the first to say that I wouldn’t want to be in the prime minister’s shoes at the moment.
Be kind to each other.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Yes, exactly. But the numbers revealed to date aren’t pretty. CMO suggested 50% of infections in a 3-4 week period around the peak. If that is a two sided spread and the projection of 80% of population being infected that suggests an average of about 3.5m per week over that period. We don’t actually know how many of total infections will require ICU care, because the rates are measured against confirmed cases that may miss mild or asymptomatic infections. However, even if the measures are successful and that is the intent, that still looks like being a difficult period.
Of course, more measures may well be introduced and this may still prove the best course.
I could add more, but I would be straying further from my field and into conjecture.
Mike
@HotF
Yep, I know economics is a consideration - not least because economic meltdown would kill lots more people. However, I was trying to avoid making political points in this arcane place;)
Meanwhile, and perhaps this belongs back the politics board, this chap has listed some interesting background to the research and planning
https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1239209782894002177 (https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1239209782894002177)
...the pressure on A&E will drop once we're forced to take the same route Spain is...Anecdotally it has already dropped. Just half the number in my dept we would normally expect on a Sunday and it was similar yesterday. The calm before the storm??
People are too busy panic-buying and terror-scrolling to go out and have an accidentmost people don't attend ED with accidents!! ;)
People are too busy panic-buying and terror-scrolling to go out and have an accidentmost people don't attend ED with accidents!! ;)
Yes there is and its growing exponentially and be warned it's not a comfortable read, especially the more recent pages.
This is a link to page 50 with postings on the 10th March.
https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=114653.1225 (https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=114653.1225)
You have to 'opt in' using your personal settings on yacf to see this thread, because it has been deemed (by somebody) to fall under the 'political' sub-forum, a place where not everyone is nice all the time.
Where is this setting? I can't find it anywhere obvious...
Edit: Scratch that, I found it.
J
All pubs to close in Eire to night. Norn Iron schools closing. France all bars and restaurants closed on friday. Holland too, and schools.but it wouldn't be an exemption- there is no rule.
Struggling to believe that we will, somehow, be exempt.
...the pressure on A&E will drop once we're forced to take the same route Spain is...Anecdotally it has already dropped. Just half the number in my dept we would normally expect on a Sunday and it was similar yesterday. The calm before the storm??
I thought there was an unwritten law that you never ever commented to the effect "it's quiet today..."I never said the 'Q' word!!
We are going to take all relevant injuries direct from triage as from this week. This will be interesting as we are not set up for major blood loss management, ATLS screening, etc.Relevant conditions going direct to appropriate specialities? Every cloud has a silver lining! :P
At this juncture it would make a great deal more sense to restrict unnecessary motor vehicle trips than anyone cycling since motorists hospitalise themselves and each other more than cyclists. It could be done via regulation of fuel sales.At last, I see someone has mentioned it.
My take on this is as follows. I am NOT an epidemiologist, but then I chose to train as an engineer instead. I am not a sociologist, nor an economist either, but I don't think that bans me from having an informed opinion.
I've put a spoiler on it only because it's long, which is my style, and looks at lots of points, which is also my style, and is not tabloid-worthy and so can make for tedious reading if you just wanted a soundbite to dig your teeth into, which is also my style.(click to show/hide)
I'm comfortable with the idea that my current point of view is naïve or misinformed, but it's based on a fair bit of reading around and piecing things together myself. I reserve the right to change my point of view based on reasonable and rational counter-arguments, as has already happened thanks to the sharing of thoughts by others on this thread.
FWIW, Ewa and I decided to postpone the Cambridge Pork Pie and Spring Dash next weekend (21 March) on the basis that we have no confidence that we would be able to run it — either because of a ban on gatherings, or a requirement from AUK, or because either of us having to self-isolate. We would definitely not have been able to run the start/finish the way we like — relaxed, informal, all-welcoming, chatty — and for riders and for us that has become an important part of the events. Hopefully we'll get to reschedule later in the year when the bulge has passed; if not then so be it.
And I will continue to ride my bike. I live about 200m from open countryside. I haven't ever needed hospitalisation for anything, so the risk of me needing it because of an incident on the bike during this crisis is extremely low. I will ride DIY-by-GPS, or perm-by-GPS, and carry everything I need, plus the Big Bottles. I probably won't be riding another calendar event for the foreseeable — not to avoid catching Covid-19, but in case I am an asymptomatic carrier.
My point is this: we all need to catch this — just not all at the same time. And to catch it, we do all need to continue to interact with other people, just limited in order to control the rate of infection, not the overall sum of infection.
Don't take flu so lightly. Last year it was a serious killer. Good flu control seems to depend heavily on vulnerable people getting the right vaccine - which wasn't the case last year. For the moment there is no effective vaccine for Covid-19 and no sight of one on the horizon. Herd immunity may work or it may be a total hecatombe but the flu comparison is not a good one.
Don't take flu so lightly. Last year it was a serious killer. Good flu control seems to depend heavily on vulnerable people getting the right vaccine - which wasn't the case last year. For the moment there is no effective vaccine for Covid-19 and no sight of one on the horizon. Herd immunity may work or it may be a total hecatombe but the flu comparison is not a good one.
Agreed. I had flu earlier this year. I spent 2 weeks in bed, losing 3kg in the process. Then a further 2 weeks feeling pretty crappy with no energy. At the end of it, I came out the otherside having lost all my fitness.
Ironically, its the first year I ever got a flu vaccine...
J
moderators,
this thread isn't about audax and the virus
pointless speculation about public events should be in the politics board
Thanks
You have to 'opt in' using your personal settings on yacf to see this thread, because it has been deemed (by somebody) to fall under the 'political' sub-forum, a place where not everyone is nice all the time.
I shall ask my droid friends if the CoronaVirus thread should be relocated out of POBI.
Can it be placed somewhere that isn't google-able please.
I shall ask my droid friends if the CoronaVirus thread should be relocated out of POBI.
Can it be placed somewhere that isn't google-able please.
To those who are only prepared to listen to experts (and let's be honest - none of us have experienced a pandemic before, including our politicians and our media)... here is one, please take the trouble to listen:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhbAAgS6Kps
...I shall be partaking of Zwift ... Is it now time for virtual Audax to be a thing...?
I'm selling my turbo in a couple of weeks if anyone interested?
£18k posted.
I'm selling my turbo in a couple of weeks if anyone interested?
£18k posted.
Many commentators are saying that the UK strategy will be good for the economy at the cost of more people dead
...
The question worth considering is: why is the UK gov doing different things to the rest of the world?
Panic means people are taking it seriously and will take action.
Glib complacency and selfishness will kill people.
Some senior WHO bod disagrees with you.
Take the non-Audax chat elsewhere.
If you have any symptoms for example a cough or temperature, no you should not.
Otherwise just make sure you wash hands regularly etc.
Take the non-Audax chat elsewhere.
Ok, strictly on topic:
I’m supposed to be controlling on an audax in two weeks. As things stand it’s going ahead. Should I do it? If it’s simply a question of personal safety, it’s a no-brainer - my health comes before your bike ride. But I’ve got to weigh up how much actual risk there is to my personal health. And there may be measures I can take to mitigate the risk to an acceptable level. Lots to think about.
Of course, with the speed this situation is developing, two weeks is a very long time away...
I’m considering how I can make it a non-contact control - help-yourself stamp/stickers seems the obvious solution. And use my portable picnic table to set up the control outside the building (weather permitting).
A big pen like a bingo marker that you can use without having to touch the Brevet card might work.
A big pen like a bingo marker that you can use without having to touch the Brevet card might work.
It would have to be a very big pen indeed to overcome the 2m proximity rule.
Purely anecdotally, I've heard fewer sirens this weekend (live up the hill from a major road which is a busy siren-artery). But I wouldn't claim to distinguish ambies from cops by sound alone anyway....the pressure on A&E will drop once we're forced to take the same route Spain is...Anecdotally it has already dropped. Just half the number in my dept we would normally expect on a Sunday and it was similar yesterday. The calm before the storm??
A big pen like a bingo marker that you can use without having to touch the Brevet card might work.
It would have to be a very big pen indeed to overcome the 2m proximity rule.
Rider puts card on table and retreats, you approach table and mark it and retreat, rider collects card and goes.
Rider tells you their name/number so you can mark them off the list.
Cycling in Spain was banned yesterday. The towns are deserted cafes restaurants and all non essential shops closed. UK next for the 14 day lock down?
The Audax Board have emailed.
Cycling in Spain was banned yesterday. The towns are deserted cafes restaurants and all non essential shops closed. UK next for the 14 day lock down?
I think it's crazy. Neither Korea or Taiwan have banned cycling. The spanish will let you walk down to the shops to buy cancer sticks but throw a fit for riding a bike.
The people in Spain I'm keeping an eye on have gotten around it by cycling via a circuitous route to the grocer's and buying a calypso.
Cycling in Spain was banned yesterday. The towns are deserted cafes restaurants and all non essential shops closed. UK next for the 14 day lock down?
I think it's crazy. Neither Korea or Taiwan have banned cycling. The spanish will let you walk down to the shops to buy cancer sticks but throw a fit for riding a bike.
The people in Spain I'm keeping an eye on have gotten around it by cycling via a circuitous route to the grocer's and buying a calypso.
Just published two new events for 24th October and paid deposit for the start venue. Hope it is all tailing down by then or i am going to be out of pocket! ;)
Cycling in Spain was banned yesterday. The towns are deserted cafes restaurants and all non essential shops closed. UK next for the 14 day lock down?
I think it's crazy. Neither Korea or Taiwan have banned cycling. The spanish will let you walk down to the shops to buy cancer sticks but throw a fit for riding a bike.
The people in Spain I'm keeping an eye on have gotten around it by cycling via a circuitous route to the grocer's and buying a calypso.
So good to know people are going out unnecessarily to keep the pandemic going ::-)
Nothing new though, same stance as a few days ago....but appropriate and proportional IMHO.
Nothing new though, same stance as a few days ago....but appropriate and proportional IMHO.
Well done them for putting their own needs above the health of the nation, we'll see how that turns out.Really not seeing any material difference between someone walking 30 mins to a shop and back and buying 20 cancer sticks and someone doing a 30 km route to the same shop and back on their own and getting a lolly tbh.
Well done them for putting their own needs above the health of the nation, we'll see how that turns out.Really not seeing any material difference between someone walking 30 mins to a shop and back and buying 20 cancer sticks and someone doing a 30 km route to the same shop and back on their own and getting a lolly tbh.
There is going to be life after this illness. This is a golden opportunity to popularise cycling and avert climate change, which is forcasted to kill tens of millions of people. I am pretty sick of watching countless people tell me and my generation that we can go and get fucked for being 'entitled' in wanting action on climate change to save ourselves and vulnerable communities worldwide, but then getting shamed for going out for a bike ride.
the advice is subject to change as circumstances and officialdom dictate. It may well alter but that doesn't make it the wrong advice now.Nothing new though, same stance as a few days ago....but appropriate and proportional IMHO.
We'll see how well it ages.
Walking about to buy cancer sticks you're much more likely to be sharing touching surfaces and being in close physical contact with non-symptomatic carriers than going for a solo spin on quiet roads.Well done them for putting their own needs above the health of the nation, we'll see how that turns out.Really not seeing any material difference between someone walking 30 mins to a shop and back and buying 20 cancer sticks and someone doing a 30 km route to the same shop and back on their own and getting a lolly tbh.
There is going to be life after this illness. This is a golden opportunity to popularise cycling and avert climate change, which is forcasted to kill tens of millions of people. I am pretty sick of watching countless people tell me and my generation that we can go and get fucked for being 'entitled' in wanting action on climate change to save ourselves and vulnerable communities worldwide, but then getting shamed for going out for a bike ride.
you can travel a lot further and to a much greater area on a bike than walking to a shop
Cycling is safe. This is a golden opportunity to popularise it and make a safer future for everyone.
the advice is subject to change as circumstances and officialdom dictate. It may well alter but that doesn't make it the wrong advice now.
the advice is subject to change as circumstances and officialdom dictate. It may well alter but that doesn't make it the wrong advice now.
Quite. I'm guessing that within two weeks from now, all sporting events will probably be cancelled, but since that is purely a guess, I'm assuming that any event not officially cancelled is still officially going ahead.
Hence making plans now for how to operate a control safely - but with the expectation that it most likely won't happen.
If/when it gets to the point where I feel it isn't safe but the organiser decides to go ahead anyway, I'll make a unilateral decision to withdraw my services - but that's a conversation for me to have with the organiser.
... Solo cyclists who don't stop anywhere are not a contagion risk unlike the cigarette buyers, who are being given carte blanche. This is a disproportionate double standard. I refuse to abandon common sense in the face of anti cyclist prejudice. I cycled into town today to pick up my work laptop and the closest I got to anyone was about 5 metres. We are not a danger to anyone. Indeed in Spain delivery cyclists are still legally working. https://blog.glovoapp.com/sin-categorizar/coronavirus-informacion-y-medidas/
The cycling restrictions in Spain at first glance might seem illogical. Under the guise of social distancing, cycling would appear to be the ideal physical activity in a lockdown. A lone rider or a small group of cyclists on an open road or trail are far away from the closed, indoor spaces that authorities are most concerned about.
Yet Spanish health authorities are urging cyclists to stay at home not only because of the threat of infection, but rather the risk of putting additional stresses in case of an accident on an already over-burdened healthcare system.
On Saturday evening, Carlos Mascias, medical director of a private hospital in the outskirts of Madrid, posted a message on the Twitter account of the Vuelta a España explaining the risk of cycling during the state of alarm.
🚨🙏🏼 #quedateencasa
🚲🙏🏼 #aparcatubici pic.twitter.com/iECRv86hiI
— La Vuelta (@lavuelta) March 14, 2020
“Stay at home and put the bike aside,” Mascias said. “Whatever possibility to minimize the impact on the resources of medical services that is not directed toward coronavirus is primordial.
“If any cyclist suffers an incident and needs an ambulance or a bed in intensive care, we are taking it away from people who truly need it, who are now arriving en masse to hospitals,” he continued. “If something happens to you now, maybe you have a chance [to be treated], but you will be taking it away from someone else … but in 48 hours, if something happens to you, the one who is left without [ICU] might be you, those who are now riding your bikes.”
Can you really not see any difference between a necessary journey (30 minute walk to get food) and an entirely unnecessary/recreational journey (a nice bimble on the bike to get an ice lolly)?Cycling is not a 'nice to have', it does people a huge amount of good, physically and mentally. There are people in this country who would be dead or otherwise chronically ill if they couldn't ride a bike. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/757756/Cycling_and_walking_for_individual_and_population_health_benefits.pdf
Funny how measures that were not going to happen or were weeks away, now seem imminent.
Can't possibly mean the modelling was wrong. 'Course not.
As I said before, comments made even a day or two ago may age badly.
It's not highly contagious though. It has spread widely because carriers are asymptomatic at the start. Consider everyone now a potential carrier. Wash your hands in an effective manner, preferably with soap and water. Try to avoid touching your face. Isolate if you have symptoms.Cycling is safe. This is a golden opportunity to popularise it and make a safer future for everyone.
Sure, just not when there's a lockdown because of a highly contagious pandemic.
Funny how measures that were not going to happen or were weeks away, now seem imminent.
Can't possibly mean the modelling was wrong. 'Course not.
As I said before, comments made even a day or two ago may age badly.
FWIW I stand by mine. Load of panic which for many will be a bad cold.
It's not highly contagious though. It has spread widely because carriers are asymptomatic at the start. Consider everyone now a potential carrier. Wash your hands in an effective manner, preferably with soap and water. Try to avoid touching your face. Isolate if you have symptoms.
Hospitalisation risk from cycling is extremely minimal especially in a scenario when road traffic is down. The vast, vast majority of cyclist injuries aren't caused by cycling. They're caused by motorists. By all means suspend the KOM attempts on the Colibier descent and the downhill MTB centres but if riding bikes was actually a mortal risk to anyone then audax would be outlawed.
QuoteCan you really not see any difference between a necessary journey (30 minute walk to get food) and an entirely unnecessary/recreational journey (a nice bimble on the bike to get an ice lolly)?Cycling is not a 'nice to have', it does people a huge amount of good, physically and mentally. There are people in this country who would be dead or otherwise chronically ill if they couldn't ride a bike. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/757756/Cycling_and_walking_for_individual_and_population_health_benefits.pdf
Again, these same 'emergency measures' advocates didn't give a shit about the 1.3 million people killed yearly by motorists or the forecasted killings of tens of millions by anthropogenic climate change. Don't try and kid me that I'm some kind of villain by staying proportionate.
That's a false argument, no-one is talking about banning certain types of riding outside of a pandemic situation. They are talking about banning unnecessary journeys during a pandemic situation. Your definition of "unnecessary" disagrees with that of the Spanish authorities.If people don't go cycling they'll do something else. That something else could involve going up and down stairs that kills or stepping in and out of a shower, which hospitalises people all the time. If the most recent accident from RP, which is has hundreds of thousands of visitors a year, is from over half a decade ago then that's an acceptable risk. 13 children every day are seriously hurt by burns and scalds in this country, 4,000 a year are hurt falling out of windows ( https://www.rospa.com/Home-Safety/Advice/General/Facts-and-Figures ). Ban kettles and nail the windows shut until the crisis is over!
Who knows what the modelling suggests? Maybe it suggests that fewer cars on the road would encourage more people to go out cycling leading to more accidents than if they'd been told to stay off the roads. Unintended consequences and all that.
Reminds me of a previous post I saw about Richmond Park being "flat and safe". Sure it is the vast majority of the time, but there are still accidents there that don't involve any other vehicles: https://road.cc/content/news/127634-man-dies-after-15mph-crash-richmond-park
They want the health service to be as free from that kind of thing as possible, that's all they're asking.
Again, you're stretching the argument way too far.Au contraire. I think you and a great deal many other people are hyperfocusing on one problem and ignoring proportionality. Cycling is hugely important to me, firstly as a means of revenue (which even the Spanish haven't outlawed - so cycling in Spain is actually legal so long as you are signed into a delivery app, even when this is clearly much more of a public health risk than solo cycling) and as a means of protecting my health.
Proportionality? If the 1% mortality rate of Covid-19 is true, and this becomes a worldwide pandemic that doesn't get stopped early then you're looking at ~70 million dying. Will recreational cyclists be responsible for making this number measurably bigger than it should be? No, but that's not really the point, but it could have a real effect at a very local/individual level.They didn't do it in Korea or Taiwan who have managed the disease exceptionally well. For ABSOLUTELY NO REASON we are looking at Spain and Italy as the model to emulate instead of these two places which performed the best.
Who knows, maybe this pandemic will have a bigger effect on anthropogenic climate change than anything else. Maybe it'll make people realise that they don't need to fly/drive/travel as much as they do (although people quickly got over the hiatus caused by the Icelandic volcano). Maybe it'll make more people realise they can work remotely and that much business can be done over video conferencing.It could well do - especially if the authorities don't lose their minds and criminalise cycling. The death toll to be inflicted by climate change has been apparent for decades and the progress made against it is a joke. I have nothing but contempt for this double standard which looks the other way at an existential threat to the species but bigs up recreational cycling as some kind of criminality that must be controlled.
Try measles for highly contagious. You know the disease we have a vaccine for that some people shun. You can be infected just by entering a room an infected person had been in two hours earlier without even touching any surfaces!It's not highly contagious though. It has spread widely because carriers are asymptomatic at the start. Consider everyone now a potential carrier. Wash your hands in an effective manner, preferably with soap and water. Try to avoid touching your face. Isolate if you have symptoms.
:thumbsup: I'm not sure how contagious coronavirus is or isn't, but the rest I agree with completely.
Edited to add: the young and healthy (I still count myself in this group) do need to catch this at some point to protect everyone else; just not all at the same time. And so the risk of giving it to others should be reduced — not to zero, but not coughing all over everyone in the pub either.
Exactly. Want to bet that the same advocates of these 'lock it down' measures will vote for comparatively extreme action on climate change which is literally a threat to the whole species?
Will they fuck they'll go back to business as normal without a second's hesitation and tell people who have to live with the consequences to screw themselves.
They want the health service to be as free from that kind of thing as possible, that's all they're asking.
I'm not sure how contagious coronavirus is or isn't, but the rest I agree with completely.
Try measles for highly contagious. You know the disease we have a vaccine for that some people shun. You can be infected just by entering a room an infected person had been in two hours earlier without even touching any surfaces!
https://www.cdc.gov/measles/transmission.html (https://www.cdc.gov/measles/transmission.html)
Nothing like a bit of snobbish arseholery, it is a national hobby I suppose...Exactly. Want to bet that the same advocates of these 'lock it down' measures will vote for comparatively extreme action on climate change which is literally a threat to the whole species?
Will they fuck they'll go back to business as normal without a second's hesitation and tell people who have to live with the consequences to screw themselves.
I think the people advocating these measures are public health experts in an immediate crisis.
I'm impressed that you can second guess what their opinions on climate change might be, just as I am impressed that you feel qualified to gain say the words of a Spanish hospital Director quoted by Greenbank.
You are wasted on the gig economy.
[/b]They want the health service to be as free from that kind of thing as possible, that's all they're asking.
Trying to double-guess this as a complete outsider (UK), this is my thought: the ban on cycling has very little to do with accidents and visits to A&E and far more to do with control of whole populations. As soon as authorities are seen to make exceptions then everyone thinks they're excepted, or else they claim ignorance or indifference and the police (et al) will have to waste time dealing with it. It will only be for a short time, otherwise whole populations will rise up and civil disobedience will ensue.
However, in the UK you almost never see a police car down a lane, so it should be trivial to go out riding and staying undiscovered, should such a restriction be brought in, at least for those people who live in or very close to the countryside. Mobilise the TA, though, and that changes a little, at least on the main roads. Or else the police just hook into Strava for a month ...
I still think standing up in the bath to shower should be banned, the statistics don't lie (although I'm basing this on a hunch).
But if you're in a hunch, then you're not really standing up...
... Solo cyclists who don't stop anywhere are not a contagion risk unlike the cigarette buyers, who are being given carte blanche. This is a disproportionate double standard. I refuse to abandon common sense in the face of anti cyclist prejudice. I cycled into town today to pick up my work laptop and the closest I got to anyone was about 5 metres. We are not a danger to anyone. Indeed in Spain delivery cyclists are still legally working. https://blog.glovoapp.com/sin-categorizar/coronavirus-informacion-y-medidas/
It's not highly contagious though. It has spread widely because carriers are asymptomatic at the start.
https://youtu.be/aox7CeOdmOY
NSFW
A colleague is keeping a beedy eye on Madagascar....
https://youtu.be/aox7CeOdmOY"dyslexic blancmange" ;D ;D
NSFW
The decision by Spain to ban cycling is not discrimination, it's to try and control movement of the population at a time of alarming growth of the disease in both countries. I'm sure the police are cracking down on drivers and walkers who are not making essential journeys too.
Nobody here is either in Spain or a Spanish national ATM so I don't think it's worth commenting. Neither is the effectiveness of Spain or Italy's approach known yet it's only been a few days.
It will be interesting to see what France decide later, I think the UK will take their cue from that. I also think that the knee-jerk reaction of confining over 70s whilst the rest move freely will prove unworkable, not everyone has younger relatives / friends living close by, the online grocery delivery services are at capacity, and what are they supposed to do about domestic chores they may not be able to perform?
The decision by Spain to ban cycling is not discrimination, it's to try and control movement of the population at a time of alarming growth of the disease in both countries. I'm sure the police are cracking down on drivers and walkers who are not making essential journeys too.
Nobody here is either in Spain or a Spanish national ATM so I don't think it's worth commenting. Neither is the effectiveness of Spain or Italy's approach known yet it's only been a few days.
It will be interesting to see what France decide later, I think the UK will take their cue from that. I also think that the knee-jerk reaction of confining over 70s whilst the rest move freely will prove unworkable, not everyone has younger relatives / friends living close by, the online grocery delivery services are at capacity, and what are they supposed to do about domestic chores they may not be able to perform?
... Solo cyclists who don't stop anywhere are not a contagion risk unlike the cigarette buyers, who are being given carte blanche. This is a disproportionate double standard. I refuse to abandon common sense in the face of anti cyclist prejudice. I cycled into town today to pick up my work laptop and the closest I got to anyone was about 5 metres. We are not a danger to anyone. Indeed in Spain delivery cyclists are still legally working. https://blog.glovoapp.com/sin-categorizar/coronavirus-informacion-y-medidas/
I'm wondering what is going to happen next week. We deliver a lot to elderly people. By it's nature we do so at close proximity, and they sign a device we pass to them. That sounds distinctly sub optimal. This assumes we're working at all by then. On the plus side, fewer tourists to run over...
J
For our young gig working friend - in France the bars are shut, the restaurants are shut but if you work for Uber, Deliveroo or whatever you can continue to deliver the food that the restaurant servers aren't allowed to serve, and no control on whether you wash your hands by the side of the road after each contact. Stop the audax, just ride alley cats with an Uber bag on your back!... Right, which is obviously more likely to spread the illness than going for a solo bike ride. This is literally my entire point.
I wonder if professional cyclists (especially those in France and Spain) will be discouraged
from riding their bikes by the authorities?
I wonder if professional cyclists in France and Spain will be discouraged from riding their bikes by the authorities?
PM: "stop non-essential travel"
PM: "stop non-essential travel"
So to confirm, if I cycle on my own for however many miles with no cafe stops and no contact with other human beings, it’s ok?
So to confirm, if I cycle on my own for however many miles with no cafe stops and no contact with other human beings, it’s ok?
It is OK, for now
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/
-All over 70s to be put in lockdown, at home, in next few weeks...for 4 months
-Closure of pubs, bars and restaurants - some time after next weekend's ban on mass gatherings
Not sure if I need to spell it out anymore, do I?
How do you get to the start?
I cant see how a DIY audax isn't "unneccesary travel" even if it could be achieved with zero social contact (and in a non emergency situation is better overall than being a couch spud etc etc).
Looks like my new favourite audax for a bit will be H-G-H (House Garage House).
Fire up the turbo trainer!
I cant see how a DIY audax isn't "unneccesary travel" even if it could be achieved with zero social contact (and in a non emergency situation is better overall than being a couch spud etc etc).Dont end up at a place you didn't start, dont interact with anyone, don't stop anywhere. How is it different to going out for a run?
Looks like my new favourite audax for a bit will be H-G-H (House Garage House).
Fire up the turbo trainer!
OED definition:
TRAVEL verb: to make a journey, usually over a long distance
TRAVEL noun: the activity of travelling
Unnecessary travel does not mean commuting to work by public transport. Many of us have to go to work.Define "travel".
Unnecessary travel means journeys that you do not have to do.
... having an accident adds more pressure to the overstretched NHS services.Having an accident doesn't always result in NHS services being involved.
Unnecessary travel does not mean commuting to work by public transport. Many of us have to go to work.Define "travel".
Unnecessary travel means journeys that you do not have to do.
If I told you that I liked travel, such as riding to somewhere 6 miles away, I think you'd piss yourself.
Unnecessary travel does not mean commuting to work by public transport. Many of us have to go to work.
Unnecessary travel means journeys that you do not have to do.
Do you have to do a Perm or a DIY?
...............
Anyway, this will very soon become irrelevant.
Define "travel".
...
* If one person in any household has a persistent cough or fever, everyone living there must stay at home for 14 days
* Those people should, if possible, avoid leaving the house "even to buy food or essentials" - but they may leave the house "for exercise and, in that case, at a safe distance from others"
...
As I probably said in the other thread, in the absence of an actual ban I intend to keep cycling, because regular exercise away from the pollution of home helps me clear the asthmatic crud off my lungs that can otherwise lead to infection. The allergy season is looming, and getting hospitalised with some boring secondary bacterial chest infection isn't going to do anyone any favours.
just back from a 250k ride (it was fab - dry roads, sunshine, no wind..). what did i miss? ;)Er, you haven't missed anything. Just a load of conjecture and speculation. There was a bit of noise about the definition of travel and unnecessary travel. As far as I know, none of the contributors hold government office so they can offer no further information than what is already in the public domain. The situation changes by the minute so no doubt this thread will run for a while, which is the sole purpose of internet forums as I understand.
(i'll catch up on this thread tomorrow, where i've left yesterday. off to the kitchen to stuff my face with food.)
thanks for the summary! my post elsewhere (with capitals!):just back from a 250k ride (it was fab - dry roads, sunshine, no wind..). what did i miss? ;)Er, you haven't missed anything. Just a load of conjecture and speculation. There was a bit of noise about the definition of travel and unnecessary travel. As far as I know, none of the contributors hold government office so they can offer no further information than what is already in the public domain. The situation changes by the minute so no doubt this thread will run for a while, which is the sole purpose of internet forums as I understand.
(i'll catch up on this thread tomorrow, where i've left yesterday. off to the kitchen to stuff my face with food.)How was your ride, where did you go, what was the weather like?- sorry keep on topic!
Selective quoting? Seriously?Define "travel".
Would that really help? Seriously?
So to confirm, if I cycle on my own for however many miles with no cafe stops and no contact with other human beings, it’s ok?
It is OK, for now
The board has decided that all calendar, permanent and DIY events, with immediate effect, until further notice.
No more debate needed.
Not sure...perhaps a discussion about how to preserve tyres and do some fettling😬😆The board has decided that all calendar, permanent and DIY events, with immediate effect, until further notice.
No more debate needed.
But what is MattC going to fill his days-at-home with?
Come to think of it, what am I going to fill mine with? ::-)
I just got an email saying all our county's libraries are closed;
Lucky I don't read books much...
I am struggling to see why if it is so crucial that cyclists be stopped that Taiwan and Korea have neither restricted our hobby.
Why is it that we instinctively ape European countries instead of looking to where they have most effectively managed the problem.
I've not seen the Taiwanese/Korean management strategy in the popular media once. Just panic mongering footage of Mediterranean settlements. Presumably because it makes for better 28 Days Later-seeming TVand you can get cheap vox pops of Brits moaning about their lovely holiday being spoiled.
For once I'm with Bludger. The risk of ANY accident doesn't change because of Covid-19.Exactly.
The risk of me having a hospitalising accident while riding my bike is something vanishingly small like once in every 100,000km ridden. Yet the chance of me slipping in the shower is something like 1 in 1000. Why stop one and not the other? SOME riders probably do need to stop riding, because their risks are greater through a different level of bike control, or balance issues, but some of us grew up with mountain bikes, and that, anecdotally, transfers well onto the road to reduce the chance of a big off, so probably not me personally; I bounce.
The risk of cycling isn't very much greater than being hit by a car while walking, or tripping over the corner of a paving slab and smacking your head — seriously, it's in the same ball park, statistically speaking. Stop walking? Stop driving?!!
And if I say "picnic plus the Big Bottles", surely you can see that I mean zero-contact? Sneezing on a park bench is a facile example — transmission would be because the other party failed to wash their hands, that must always be the case, otherwise you can never touch a door handle again without blaming somebody else.
Let's keep this discussion sane, people — the facts (for many of us at least) do NOT show any but a minuscule risk of requiring medical attention, and even then most probably a bandage or a simple cast, which can be done well away from frontline Covid-19 staff.
For once I'm with Bludger. The risk of ANY accident doesn't change because of Covid-19.
The risk of me having a hospitalising accident while riding my bike is something vanishingly small like once in every 100,000km ridden. Yet the chance of me slipping in the shower is something like 1 in 1000. Why stop one and not the other? SOME riders probably do need to stop riding, because their risks are greater through a different level of bike control, or balance issues, but some of us grew up with mountain bikes, and that, anecdotally, transfers well onto the road to reduce the chance of a big off, so probably not me personally; I bounce.
It would be good to get further statement that for the time being solitary exercise walking, running or on a bike is ok otherwise there will just be abuse from motorists.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
It would be good to get further statement that for the time being solitary exercise walking, running or on a bike is ok otherwise there will just be abuse from motorists.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
1:1000 slipping in the shower & needing medical help???
In 2008, an estimated 234,094 nonfatal bathroom injuries among persons aged ≥15 years were treated in U.S. EDs, for an injury rate of 96.4 per 100,000 population.
.. and because someone in your household has a cough and so you shouldn’t be going out at all for 14 days.
I havent ridden my bike for a week, not because I think I'm a danger to myself, but because I think at this very stressful time motorists may be far more distracted. (and because I'm lazy)
1:1000 slipping in the shower & needing medical help???
I had to look that one up. In the snappily named report 'Nonfatal Bathroom Injuries Among Persons Aged ≥15 Years --- United States, 2008' https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6022a1.htm?s_cid=mm6022a1_w (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6022a1.htm?s_cid=mm6022a1_w)QuoteIn 2008, an estimated 234,094 nonfatal bathroom injuries among persons aged ≥15 years were treated in U.S. EDs, for an injury rate of 96.4 per 100,000 population.
Approximates to 1 in 1000 per year!
.. and because someone in your household has a cough and so you shouldn’t be going out at all for 14 days.
I havent ridden my bike for a week, not because I think I'm a danger to myself, but because I think at this very stressful time motorists may be far more distracted. (and because I'm lazy)
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
From WHOIt should also mention that if you need to go to a supermarket wearing Lycra will guarantee you an exclusion area of several metres.
(https://scontent.flhr3-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/89494655_1422849904555203_1656481835670044672_n.jpg?_nc_cat=107&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=Ep-sVONsRZYAX8-Pn4p&_nc_ht=scontent.flhr3-2.fna&oh=3a9e2938022739e37ffe8162e957d2a9&oe=5E9810D3)
The risk of me having a hospitalising accident while riding my bike is something vanishingly small like once in every 100,000km ridden. Yet the chance of me slipping in the shower is something like 1 in 1000. Why stop one and not the other? SOME riders probably do need to stop riding, because their risks are greater through a different level of bike control, or balance issues, but some of us grew up with mountain bikes, and that, anecdotally, transfers well onto the road to reduce the chance of a big off, so probably not me personally; I bounce.
For once I'm with Bludger. The risk of ANY accident doesn't change because of Covid-19.
The risk of me having a hospitalising accident while riding my bike is something vanishingly small like once in every 100,000km ridden. Yet the chance of me slipping in the shower is something like 1 in 1000. Why stop one and not the other? SOME riders probably do need to stop riding, because their risks are greater through a different level of bike control, or balance issues, but some of us grew up with mountain bikes, and that, anecdotally, transfers well onto the road to reduce the chance of a big off, so probably not me personally; I bounce.
The risk of cycling isn't very much greater than being hit by a car while walking, or tripping over the corner of a paving slab and smacking your head — seriously, it's in the same ball park, statistically speaking. Stop walking? Stop driving?!!
And if I say "picnic plus the Big Bottles", surely you can see that I mean zero-contact? Sneezing on a park bench is a facile example — transmission would be because the other party failed to wash their hands, that must always be the case, otherwise you can never touch a door handle again without blaming somebody else.
Let's keep this discussion sane, people — the facts (for many of us at least) do NOT show any but a minuscule risk of requiring medical attention, and even then most probably a bandage or a simple cast, which can be done well away from frontline Covid-19 staff.
Perhaps not statistically valid I have had one of each. One major off on a bike that resulted in an ambulance trip but no broken bones, the opposite of my bathroom based accident.For once I'm with Bludger. The risk of ANY accident doesn't change because of Covid-19.
The risk of me having a hospitalising accident while riding my bike is something vanishingly small like once in every 100,000km ridden. Yet the chance of me slipping in the shower is something like 1 in 1000. Why stop one and not the other? SOME riders probably do need to stop riding, because their risks are greater through a different level of bike control, or balance issues, but some of us grew up with mountain bikes, and that, anecdotally, transfers well onto the road to reduce the chance of a big off, so probably not me personally; I bounce.
The risk of cycling isn't very much greater than being hit by a car while walking, or tripping over the corner of a paving slab and smacking your head — seriously, it's in the same ball park, statistically speaking. Stop walking? Stop driving?!!
And if I say "picnic plus the Big Bottles", surely you can see that I mean zero-contact? Sneezing on a park bench is a facile example — transmission would be because the other party failed to wash their hands, that must always be the case, otherwise you can never touch a door handle again without blaming somebody else.
Let's keep this discussion sane, people — the facts (for many of us at least) do NOT show any but a minuscule risk of requiring medical attention, and even then most probably a bandage or a simple cast, which can be done well away from frontline Covid-19 staff.
So for every 100km covered on the bike you risk a slip in the shower? If your average daily ride is only 50km you double your risk of slipping in the shower (assuming you shower after each ride).
I'm not advocating not riding your bike at all, but in answer to the above there is a difference between injuring yourself going down your stair, or slipping in your bathroom and crashing your bike on a nice ride.
It's really hard to live your life without using your bathroom.
I havent ridden my bike for a week, not because I think I'm a danger to myself, but because I think at this very stressful time motorists may be far more distracted. (and because I'm lazy)
Perhaps not statistically valid I have had one of each. One major off on a bike that resulted in an ambulance trip but no broken bones, the opposite of my bathroom based accident.For once I'm with Bludger. The risk of ANY accident doesn't change because of Covid-19.
The risk of me having a hospitalising accident while riding my bike is something vanishingly small like once in every 100,000km ridden. Yet the chance of me slipping in the shower is something like 1 in 1000. Why stop one and not the other? SOME riders probably do need to stop riding, because their risks are greater through a different level of bike control, or balance issues, but some of us grew up with mountain bikes, and that, anecdotally, transfers well onto the road to reduce the chance of a big off, so probably not me personally; I bounce.
The risk of cycling isn't very much greater than being hit by a car while walking, or tripping over the corner of a paving slab and smacking your head — seriously, it's in the same ball park, statistically speaking. Stop walking? Stop driving?!!
And if I say "picnic plus the Big Bottles", surely you can see that I mean zero-contact? Sneezing on a park bench is a facile example — transmission would be because the other party failed to wash their hands, that must always be the case, otherwise you can never touch a door handle again without blaming somebody else.
Let's keep this discussion sane, people — the facts (for many of us at least) do NOT show any but a minuscule risk of requiring medical attention, and even then most probably a bandage or a simple cast, which can be done well away from frontline Covid-19 staff.
So for every 100km covered on the bike you risk a slip in the shower? If your average daily ride is only 50km you double your risk of slipping in the shower (assuming you shower after each ride).
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
As for bike handling skills the MTB argument is pish. I've commuted across Birmingham and raced tt, track, cross, road, crits and mtbs starting from the age of 12 - but I still fall off occasionally. you can't allow for the unexpected and the actions of other road users.
Just want to throw into the stats that I've done less than 1000 outdoor kilometers since my last crash that warranted medical intervention.
Just because the risk is low, does not mean you know when it will come. (which is pretty much what my brain said when I barrelled into the 'invisible' gate).
If it's any consulation Travelodge now are allowing even Saver rate bookings to be changed to a later date (but the same hotel)
If it's any consulation Travelodge now are allowing even Saver rate bookings to be changed to a later date (but the same hotel)
The problem with that is not knowing when to rebook for.
You have to alter it before it's due.
It's almost like were going to be playing chicken with insurance rules...
The board has decided to suspend all calendar, permanent and DIY events, with immediate effect, until further notice.
No more debate needed.
For once I'm with Bludger. The risk of ANY accident doesn't change because of Covid-19.
The risk of me having a hospitalising accident while riding my bike is something vanishingly small like once in every 100,000km ridden. Yet the chance of me slipping in the shower is something like 1 in 1000. Why stop one and not the other? SOME riders probably do need to stop riding, because their risks are greater through a different level of bike control, or balance issues, but some of us grew up with mountain bikes, and that, anecdotally, transfers well onto the road to reduce the chance of a big off, so probably not me personally; I bounce.
The risk of cycling isn't very much greater than being hit by a car while walking, or tripping over the corner of a paving slab and smacking your head — seriously, it's in the same ball park, statistically speaking. Stop walking? Stop driving?!!
And if I say "picnic plus the Big Bottles", surely you can see that I mean zero-contact? Sneezing on a park bench is a facile example — transmission would be because the other party failed to wash their hands, that must always be the case, otherwise you can never touch a door handle again without blaming somebody else.
Let's keep this discussion sane, people — the facts (for many of us at least) do NOT show any but a minuscule risk of requiring medical attention, and even then most probably a bandage or a simple cast, which can be done well away from frontline Covid-19 staff.
If I’d thought there was a chance DIY rides would be cancelled, I’d have done my March 200 yesterday. Don’t put off until the end of the month what you can do at the beginning! Club riders are turning to solo rides now.
Would need to check it if it meets the requirements, problem is as its only advisory just now they'll probably treat that as disinclincation to travel rather than not being able to.If it's any consulation Travelodge now are allowing even Saver rate bookings to be changed to a later date (but the same hotel)
The problem with that is not knowing when to rebook for.
You have to alter it before it's due.
It's almost like were going to be playing chicken with insurance rules...
I wonder if travel insurance covers NCNR train tickets
What is the risk of falling over in the shower because you're tired from your cycle ride (actually not you but some other loon who hasn't dosed their effort)? And it's never us that will have an accident , always someone else, so we never need to have legislation for us (or against us) but always for someone else. The same arguement is regualarly used about speed limits, safety equipement and a whole raft of other things.
Note, one of the things that has spurred the sudden and dramatic increase in "repression" in France is the fact that the previous level did not work because people thought they knew better and ignored the rules. Of course whether they were right or wrong is something we hope we will find out in due course ( if we're not dead ignorant already)
Too soon to talk about helmets? :demon:
Too soon to talk about helmets? :demon:I don't think I've never caught a cold whilst wearing one. Does this mean they are effective against Covid-19?
isn't the restriction of movement that is happening in some countries against the uk's human rights act 1998 article 5 (right to liberty and security)? maybe there are better/more suitable laws around this subject (ianal).
if i am, say, cyclo-touring through a country with restrictions and my "home" is a tent, how do i go about my basic needs to access food and sanitation?
What is the risk of falling over in the shower because you're tired from your cycle ride (actually not you but some other loon who hasn't dosed their effort)? And it's never us that will have an accident , always someone else, so we never need to have legislation for us (or against us) but always for someone else. The same arguement is regualarly used about speed limits, safety equipement and a whole raft of other things.
I think you're missing my point. There's a bunch of people saying "don't ride, you might have an accident, that might cause extra burden on NHS at this time" and I'm arguing that the logic is flawed, because of all the other things that are at least as likely to put you in A&E and that nobody actually seems to be curtailing those.
DIY is way riskier than riding your bike, but with all this home-time then it's not unreasonable to see an increase, eh? Nobody seems to be telling anyone not to do that.
AND gov.uk clearly stated that we are currently okay to continue exercising, I read that they even recommended it. And WHO recommends the same.
This is NOT an argument about my rights over your rights, as you put it. It's about interpretation — and wrongful interpretation — of real-world probabilities. Lies, damned lies, and statistics, and all that.
At the moment it feels like misaligned thinking, along the lines of being thorough about recycling at home, and then taking a couple of fly-away holidays a year — the effects of the recycling are utterly insignificant compared to the impact from the flights (to misquote Robert Peston).
Yes, that makes things a little easier. I’ve yet to get my RRtY up to date with Huggy, but January finished run number 8. I went out on a windy day at the end of Feb to start number 9, when I knew I didn’t have to, but I’ve done at least a 200 each month since I joined in March 2013, so I’ve had 7 continuous years. As you say, I might still do a pointless 200 this month, if only for the fun of it!If I’d thought there was a chance DIY rides would be cancelled, I’d have done my March 200 yesterday. Don’t put off until the end of the month what you can do at the beginning! Club riders are turning to solo rides now.
If it's for the RRtY, it doesn't matter. You can pick up where you left off whenever things return to 'normal'. If you just fancied riding 200km for fun, you can still do that. It just won't count as an Audax ride.
/snip
Pure Tragedy of the Commons.
I havent ridden my bike for a week, not because I think I'm a danger to myself, but because I think at this very stressful time motorists may be far more distracted.
Transport for Wales have just emailed me to say they won't charge admin on refunds for cancelled trips.
Advance purchase tickets can change dates.
I havent ridden my bike for a week, not because I think I'm a danger to myself, but because I think at this very stressful time motorists may be far more distracted.
I tend to agree. I've had several close passes when riding short loops on the local lanes in the past few days. This is unusual.
PS. Now that AUK has rightly called off events for an indefinite period, it will lose its main income stream. Thank goodness it hasn't been lobbing money at some misconceived IT project...
But anyway, the audax board is for endless squabbling about arcane rules, points, and massive failures of financial management, not politics. :P
I'm going to X.Massively - thanks! :thumbsup:
My anecdata is Y.
HTH.
Not directly relevant to Audax (but there isn't any Audax for a while, so what the hell):
Dr Rachel Aldred on twitter:
Open letter from public health & transport researchers calls on government to support safe walking & cycling (in terms of infection & injury risks) during the COVID-19 pandemic: https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vR5AdOmF2effrg-lpBXtvh0stbxM0W6xTDwV2J-xIgHB8rPfZl5bLVR5eL7VV2m_W9xx5PgH26TB0vq/pub
I do not intend to increase my cycling (and thus marginally risk increasing my burden on the NHS): I just plan to carry on doing the usual amount.
(actually a bit less, as I would normally ride a number of long Audaxes in March-June time).
I believe I've been to A&E twice as a customer - both times involved a car [once I was driving, once I was cycling]. It was the driving incident that led to a 9-week stretch.
What is the risk of falling over in the shower because you're tired from your cycle ride (actually not you but some other loon who hasn't dosed their effort)? And it's never us that will have an accident , always someone else, so we never need to have legislation for us (or against us) but always for someone else. The same arguement is regualarly used about speed limits, safety equipement and a whole raft of other things.
I think you're missing my point. There's a bunch of people saying "don't ride, you might have an accident, that might cause extra burden on NHS at this time" and I'm arguing that the logic is flawed, because of all the other things that are at least as likely to put you in A&E and that nobody actually seems to be curtailing those.
In the context of similar bans (and justification) in various other European countries and Audax distance riding.
The point is that by continuing to choose to do certain activities you are continuing to choose to elevate your risk profile. You could choose to lower it by not going out on those rides, or by going out on shorter rides, etc.
You could choose to increase it by taking extra baths/showers every day (and increasing the risk of slipping over), or you could keep it the same by doing what you already do, or you could even lower it slightly by washing less frequently, who knows whether that would be significant.DIY is way riskier than riding your bike, but with all this home-time then it's not unreasonable to see an increase, eh? Nobody seems to be telling anyone not to do that.
AND gov.uk clearly stated that we are currently okay to continue exercising, I read that they even recommended it. And WHO recommends the same.
You could choose to increase your risk profile by doing home improvements (I'll avoid calling it DIY), again it's your choice. I know I won't at this time as I really wouldn't want to end up in A&E at this time. I've got enough other shit that doesn't need hard labour to be getting on with in the mean time, those kinds of home improvements can wait either for a professional or a more appropriate time.
A recommendation to keep doing exercise is not carte blanche to keep doing 200km+ rides. No matter how smart/experienced/amazing/indestructible a rider you think you may be you do not have the same reactions/concentration/discipline/etc throughout an 8 hour ride.
As I've said before, you already have a better cardiovascular and immune system because of the rides you have already done. You don't need to keep doing 200km+ rides in order to keep your immune system in great shape. I agree that you need to do some riding for mental health benefits, but maybe not as much as you'd really like to do with loads of spare time on your hands.
Continuing to do long distance riding, especially as DIY Audaxes are now not even going to be validated, is still elevating your risk profile. Again, that's your choice.
It doesn't matter that other people might be choosing to do home improvements and raising their risk profile. That's nothing to do with you, that's their problem. You are still choosing to raise your own risk profile.This is NOT an argument about my rights over your rights, as you put it. It's about interpretation — and wrongful interpretation — of real-world probabilities. Lies, damned lies, and statistics, and all that.
As others have said, in the next few months you will either have an accident whilst riding that results in serious injury and extensive hospital treatment, or you won't. Your riding won't cause 0.000001 accident's worth of extra work for the NHS or whatever the odds are, it'll either be 0 or 1. 1 being a big chunk of work for them.At the moment it feels like misaligned thinking, along the lines of being thorough about recycling at home, and then taking a couple of fly-away holidays a year — the effects of the recycling are utterly insignificant compared to the impact from the flights (to misquote Robert Peston).
But that argument is essentially that if someone takes a couple of fly-away holidays a year there's no point in them recycling, since the comparative impact is next to nothing and therefore, whilst many people are taking flights there's no point in anyone recycling at all. Pure Tragedy of the Commons.
At the end of the day the decision is yours, but at least understand that you are making a specific choice in this, and stop using other people's (bad) choices to somehow justify yours. Accept that you are increasing your own risk profile. You could choose not to do as much riding and that would still get you exercise and lessen your chances (no matter how small already) of causing a bigger problem for other people.
FWIW I'll continue to do some utility cycling but then I haven't done an Audax length ride for a good few years. I certainly won't be looking at this as an opportunity for increasing my riding significantly. I'll continue to do some running on the general physical and mental health grounds, but no more than I've generally been doing for the last few months anyway.
A semi-lockdown is announced for Belgium from tomorrow noon.
But interestingly recreational outdoor activities as walking and cycling are still permitted, albeith either solo or with fellow members (or one friend).
Just re-read some of my comments — fook, I seem to be suffering from cabin fever already and we're only on day two :facepalm:
Sorry.
CTC has cancelled all activities too...
If it's any consulation Travelodge now are allowing even Saver rate bookings to be changed to a later date (but the same hotel)
.. and because someone in your household has a cough and so you shouldn’t be going out at all for 14 days.
I havent ridden my bike for a week, not because I think I'm a danger to myself, but because I think at this very stressful time motorists may be far more distracted. (and because I'm lazy)
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
On a non audax but cycling related topic I had an e-mail from Strava this morning. Maybe they should turn off segments for a while to stop numpties putting themselves at risk of hospitalisation by chasing downhill KOM/PBs?
Think a lot of us will go stir crazy before this passes :-\NHS D&G or the health Secretary are probably hunting you down to keep you occupied for a few months.
Think a lot of us will go stir crazy before this passes :-\NHS D&G or the health Secretary are probably hunting you down to keep you occupied for a few months.
I'm only half joking
Sent from my BKL-L09 using Tapatalk
...
We would like to take a moment to reassure you that, despite the current global challenges, BringRingVR has taken proactive actions to ensure that all services will continue at our usual high-standards (without disruption).
On a non audax but cycling related topic I had an e-mail from Strava this morning. Maybe they should turn off segments for a while to stop numpties putting themselves at risk of hospitalisation by chasing downhill KOM/PBs?
I have a persistent cough but have had it for years - side effect of meds. Monitoring temperature as I wouldn't consider a cough to be a symptom.
If it's any consulation Travelodge now are allowing even Saver rate bookings to be changed to a later date (but the same hotel)
Premier Inn will also let you switch hotel for any booking (including non flex) up to 30th April
If it's any consulation Travelodge now are allowing even Saver rate bookings to be changed to a later date (but the same hotel)
Premier Inn will also let you switch hotel for any booking (including non flex) up to 30th April
Yes, I called them on Tuesday when I saw it on their website.
You don't have to give them a new date straight away, but have 270 days to do so.
Email them once the new booking has been paid for and they will reimburse the old one.
Too soon to talk about helmets? :demon:
If it's any consulation Travelodge now are allowing even Saver rate bookings to be changed to a later date (but the same hotel)
Premier Inn will also let you switch hotel for any booking (including non flex) up to 30th April
Yes, I called them on Tuesday when I saw it on their website.
You don't have to give them a new date straight away, but have 270 days to do so.
Email them once the new booking has been paid for and they will reimburse the old one.
Thanks :thumbsup: I was just looking at using the room I booked for Saturday for Essex 3R's in November (not that it's anywhere near it would just be a novel place to ECE back to) but I'll wait
If it's any consulation Travelodge now are allowing even Saver rate bookings to be changed to a later date (but the same hotel)
Premier Inn will also let you switch hotel for any booking (including non flex) up to 30th April
Yes, I called them on Tuesday when I saw it on their website.
You don't have to give them a new date straight away, but have 270 days to do so.
Email them once the new booking has been paid for and they will reimburse the old one.
Thanks :thumbsup: I was just looking at using the room I booked for Saturday for Essex 3R's in November (not that it's anywhere near it would just be a novel place to ECE back to) but I'll wait
Make sure you ring them to cancel the old one, they'll put a note on the booking saying you'll rebook at a later date.
Was on hold for 25 minutes when I did but it saved me £112 I thought I'd not get back :)
I had a mail from the club president this morning with the official guidance of the FFCT. Not surprisingly Mme Cano is siding with the administration. So she advises all FFCT members to stay at home and not ride at all. The idea is that the more we obey the lockdown rules the sooner it will be all over and we can get back to normal. The thing for the moment is to avoid creating work for the Urgences by having accidents.Not from me - I haven't got time to get irate about Foreigns' Laws.(it's clearly stupid, if you want to know :) )
I know that some reading this will at once cry out loud that cycling is a safe sport and that it's the motorists fault there are accidents.
I know that some reading this will at once cry out loud that cycling is a safe sport and that it's the motorists fault there are accidents. I have thought a bit and you are all missing a point. The principal cause of accidents and death in the FFCT last year (and indeed for a few years) was not RTAs. It was cardio-vascular problems and resulting accidents, which are a problem typical to the age range of FFCT members! (For those with memories, there were two deaths at last year's Semaine Fédérale, both due to cardio-vascular incidents.)
I know that some reading this will at once cry out loud that cycling is a safesporthobby...
method of locomotion (aka transport)?
I know that some reading this will at once cry out loud that cycling is a safesporthobby...
method of locomotion (aka transport)?
I know that some reading this will at once cry out loud that cycling is a safesporthobby...
The virus gives precisely zero fuckser ... Yeah. And?
The virus gives precisely zero fuckser ... Yeah. And?
Think a lot of us will go stir crazy before this passes :-\NHS D&G or the health Secretary are probably hunting you down to keep you occupied for a few months.
I'm only half joking
Sent from my BKL-L09 using Tapatalk
I have put my name forward. I'm not HCPC registered anymore but have offered to do biomedical/laboratory support work if it gets to that stage.
method of locomotion (aka transport)?
I know that some reading this will at once cry out loud that cycling is a safesporthobby...
That's alright then. No need for methods of locomotion when you are all confined to home.
We had clarification about what close to home means in exercise terms for the administration - 2km, walking, running or cycling. The enforcers are going to be out in force this week-end if the weather's nice and there is no truce. Now it's fines all round. 70 000 controls and over 4000 fines since wednesday morning (that was only yesterday!) according to BBC quoting Castaner, the Interior Minister (although I haven't seen that in french).
One can discuss or argue about this but I sure ain't doing that with a gang of flics all with pistols at their waists!
Just read that HCPC are looking at ways to bring back to work people who have deregistered in the last 3 years - that would include me.
Everyone is waiting to see what will happen in Italy so far it's had no effect, the hard lockdown can't seriously go on for the 12 weeks suggested by PMBJ
Just read that HCPC are looking at ways to bring back to work people who have deregistered in the last 3 years - that would include me.
yes they will be looking for people to fill the jobs of people who have to stay at home for self isolation or kids off school
I'm also a BMS
Everyone is waiting to see what will happen in Italy so far it's had no effect, the hard lockdown can't seriously go on for the 12 weeks suggested by PMBJ
If you read the Imperial predictions: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf then it's a stark set of choices.
Without a lockdown it'll mostly be done by July 2020 with the small matter of hundreds of thousands dead.
(https://lfgss.microco.sm/api/v1/files/95afcae08200de3be4244ce655165765bb8a99d6.jpeg)
(The blue shaded area is a period of lockdown. Look what happens to the green and orange lines once you're through that. With nothing to contain the virus it just lets rip again as only a small percentage of the population have been exposed and have gained immunity [or died].)
If you pull the plug on the lockdown without another plan (vaccine, an existing drug that dramatically improves severe cases or some other magic intervention) then you just delay the inevitable.
You can ramp up the number of critical care beds but predictions put peak critical care load of a "let it run riot" scenario at 350 beds per 100,000 population. There are currently 8 critical care beds per 100,000 population. If you can triple the number of critical care beds in a short period you're still an order of magnitude out.
Without some other magic bullet we're heading for this:-
(https://lfgss.microco.sm/api/v1/files/c4c96dddbb255acd319c53908d1f6ef080cb31b4.png)
The areas in blue are times we are in lockdown. After the initial 16 week period (it's a bait-and-switch from the 12 weeks they're trying to sell right now) to stabilise things it'll be 8 weeks of lockdown and 4 weeks of freedom. Lather, rinse and repeat. Maximise critical care bed availability without blowing through it and when the cases start to fall you open things up again to get the next batch of people infected, lockdown and deal with them, lather rinse and repeat until a vaccine or other breakthrough is found.
It's worth noting the dates on the x-axis on that graph.
I wouldn't bother making any long term Audax plans.
/snip/
However, in the UK you almost never see a police car down a lane, so it should be trivial to go out riding and staying undiscovered, should such a restriction be brought in, at least for those people who live in or very close to the countryside. Mobilise the TA, though, and that changes a little, at least on the main roads. Or else the police just hook into Strava for a month ...
/snip/
Isn't a reason for the poor response in Italy due to the fact that the lock down didn't start quick enough?
Isn't a reason for the poor response in Italy due to the fact that the lock down didn't start quick enough?
who knows? they reckon we will be where Italy are in 2-3 weeks. We won't be able to lock down it will be a case of "head for the hills" which is why they know they cannot lock London down on its own.
The lockdown idea will only work if the virus gets bored and goes away, it's not going anywhere soon IMO despite our efforts to contain it
When you say “the lockdown in Italy hasn’t worked” what do you mean exactly ? There have been 3000 deaths so far in Italy. Are you saying there would have been less without the lockdown ???. With the refined data and the imperial college model with no intervention there would be 510,000 U.K. deaths, with the original plan spreading the peak over a few months 260,000 deaths, with the lock down and spreading it over 18 months 20,000 deaths.method of locomotion (aka transport)?
I know that some reading this will at once cry out loud that cycling is a safesporthobby...
That's alright then. No need for methods of locomotion when you are all confined to home.
We had clarification about what close to home means in exercise terms for the administration - 2km, walking, running or cycling. The enforcers are going to be out in force this week-end if the weather's nice and there is no truce. Now it's fines all round. 70 000 controls and over 4000 fines since wednesday morning (that was only yesterday!) according to BBC quoting Castaner, the Interior Minister (although I haven't seen that in french).
One can discuss or argue about this but I sure ain't doing that with a gang of flics all with pistols at their waists!
You are in France which has gone for the hard lockdown along with Italy and Spain. The other EU / non EU countries are seeing what happens and have generally taken a cautious approach (apart from UK because the government can't afford to shut our pubs restaurants and shops even though they must)
I've noticed over the years that on the Continent people generally do what's asked of them while the UK tends to rebel which is sort of happening now.
Everyone is waiting to see what will happen in Italy so far it's had no effect, the hard lockdown can't seriously go on for the 12 weeks suggested by PMBJ
No idea which joker suggested the London Lockdown, like that's ever gonna work. I work in London but don't live there how are they going to stop me coming in / out and vice versa?Just read that HCPC are looking at ways to bring back to work people who have deregistered in the last 3 years - that would include me.
yes they will be looking for people to fill the jobs of people who have to stay at home for self isolation or kids off school
I'm also a BMS
Isn't a reason for the poor response in Italy due to the fact that the lock down didn't start quick enough?
who knows? they reckon we will be where Italy are in 2-3 weeks. We won't be able to lock down it will be a case of "head for the hills" which is why they know they cannot lock London down on its own.
The lockdown idea will only work if the virus gets bored and goes away, it's not going anywhere soon IMO despite our efforts to contain it
3-4 months for the first day with no reported cases in China? Going to be June or July before things get any better :(
5 months from initial case was predicted recently by Wellcome trust.Isn't a reason for the poor response in Italy due to the fact that the lock down didn't start quick enough?
who knows? they reckon we will be where Italy are in 2-3 weeks. We won't be able to lock down it will be a case of "head for the hills" which is why they know they cannot lock London down on its own.
The lockdown idea will only work if the virus gets bored and goes away, it's not going anywhere soon IMO despite our efforts to contain it
3-4 months for the first day with no reported cases in China? Going to be June or July before things get any better :(
method of locomotion (aka transport)?
I know that some reading this will at once cry out loud that cycling is a safesporthobby...
That's alright then. No need for methods of locomotion when you are all confined to home.
We had clarification about what close to home means in exercise terms for the administration - 2km, walking, running or cycling. The enforcers are going to be out in force this week-end if the weather's nice and there is no truce. Now it's fines all round. 70 000 controls and over 4000 fines since wednesday morning (that was only yesterday!) according to BBC quoting Castaner, the Interior Minister (although I haven't seen that in french).
One can discuss or argue about this but I sure ain't doing that with a gang of flics all with pistols at their waists!
You are in France which has gone for the hard lockdown along with Italy and Spain. The other EU / non EU countries are seeing what happens and have generally taken a cautious approach (apart from UK because the government can't afford to shut our pubs restaurants and shops even though they must)
I've noticed over the years that on the Continent people generally do what's asked of them while the UK tends to rebel which is sort of happening now.
Everyone is waiting to see what will happen in Italy so far it's had no effect, the hard lockdown can't seriously go on for the 12 weeks suggested by PMBJ
No idea which joker suggested the London Lockdown, like that's ever gonna work. I work in London but don't live there how are they going to stop me coming in / out and vice versa?Just read that HCPC are looking at ways to bring back to work people who have deregistered in the last 3 years - that would include me.
yes they will be looking for people to fill the jobs of people who have to stay at home for self isolation or kids off school
I'm also a BMS
How does all this "home delivery" thing work, whether it's food from pubs, or supermarkets? With the elderly self-isolating, they are less likely to carry the virus than the pub or shopworkers who will be delivering. Can the virus not live on the containers, or what? How long before it is safe to pick something up off your step (assuming it hasn't already been nicked? Should we be wearing gloves to take things from shelves in shops and using the checkouts? I am, at tjhe moment but it seems very hit and miss from the shelf-stackers.
My local pub is doing deliveries to nearby houses. Full English tomorrow.
We arent in lockdown (this post will age badly...like 4 days badly) but people have been self-isolating, and the streets of London have been quiet, and this is without laws restricting movement. Equally, panic buying demonstrates that many people are taking this seriously.
There are cultural aspects to this. Japan is coping well in part because there is a strong culture of social obedience.
Nevertheless, UK has a steeper mortality curve than Italy. This will be horrendous.
It may pale into insignificance when the virus hits countries like Pakistan and India
I think the reason why Italy, Spain and France are on lockdown is in fact they are the countries where people are not socially responsible. If all the french idiots (which isn't the whole population) hadn't decided to go shopping in groups, followed by a nice stroll for everyone on the beach or in the woods and a lot of group cycling last week-end we probably would not now be in lockdown.
3-4 months for the first day with no reported cases in China? Going to be June or July before things get any better :(5 months from initial case was predicted recently by Wellcome trust.
we just don't know yet.
The possible downside of that is that by infecting fewer people initially, you have a worse second wave. But we just don't know yet.
I expect I'll have got around to getting my hair cut by then though.
I've recorded a short film (https://www.instagram.com/p/B9vBEKRFxt9/?utm_source=ig_embed) about what I think, when you lot tell me I shouldn't ride a 600 this weekend.
That is a cheaper option than buying a string of houses 4km apart.you're not allowed to use secondary residences (even if they are only 4km apart). You have to declare one address on your attestation and that's it. I think trying to dodge the issue in the current climate would give at least the "majoration" of 300€ and probably another offence somewhere along the line for perverting the course of justice or putting lives in danger. As various ministers have said, now is not the time for trying to be clever
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Whereabouts are you ?That is a cheaper option than buying a string of houses 4km apart.you're not allowed to use secondary residences (even if they are only 4km apart). You have to declare one address on your attestation and that's it. I think trying to dodge the issue in the current climate would give at least the "majoration" of 300€ and probably another offence somewhere along the line for perverting the course of justice or putting lives in danger. As various ministers have said, now is not the time for trying to be clever
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Whereabouts are you ?That is a cheaper option than buying a string of houses 4km apart.you're not allowed to use secondary residences (even if they are only 4km apart). You have to declare one address on your attestation and that's it. I think trying to dodge the issue in the current climate would give at least the "majoration" of 300€ and probably another offence somewhere along the line for perverting the course of justice or putting lives in danger. As various ministers have said, now is not the time for trying to be clever
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
France, I assume.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
:-)Whereabouts are you ?That is a cheaper option than buying a string of houses 4km apart.you're not allowed to use secondary residences (even if they are only 4km apart). You have to declare one address on your attestation and that's it. I think trying to dodge the issue in the current climate would give at least the "majoration" of 300€ and probably another offence somewhere along the line for perverting the course of justice or putting lives in danger. As various ministers have said, now is not the time for trying to be clever
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
France, I assume.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Probably 2km or less from his house...:-)Whereabouts are you ?That is a cheaper option than buying a string of houses 4km apart.you're not allowed to use secondary residences (even if they are only 4km apart). You have to declare one address on your attestation and that's it. I think trying to dodge the issue in the current climate would give at least the "majoration" of 300€ and probably another offence somewhere along the line for perverting the course of justice or putting lives in danger. As various ministers have said, now is not the time for trying to be clever
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
France, I assume.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
I was after something a bit more precise
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Probably 2km or less from his house...:-)Whereabouts are you ?That is a cheaper option than buying a string of houses 4km apart.you're not allowed to use secondary residences (even if they are only 4km apart). You have to declare one address on your attestation and that's it. I think trying to dodge the issue in the current climate would give at least the "majoration" of 300€ and probably another offence somewhere along the line for perverting the course of justice or putting lives in danger. As various ministers have said, now is not the time for trying to be clever
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
France, I assume.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
I was after something a bit more precise
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Nearest I have visited will have been to futuroscope a couple of times when the children were children. Is it mainly Paris that is infected and then spreading out - or is it more random?Probably 2km or less from his house...:-)Whereabouts are you ?That is a cheaper option than buying a string of houses 4km apart.you're not allowed to use secondary residences (even if they are only 4km apart). You have to declare one address on your attestation and that's it. I think trying to dodge the issue in the current climate would give at least the "majoration" of 300€ and probably another offence somewhere along the line for perverting the course of justice or putting lives in danger. As various ministers have said, now is not the time for trying to be clever
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
France, I assume.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
I was after something a bit more precise
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Limoges.
I went back across the wood this morning with the bread. Not closed off but I had to share the path with 3 women walking their dogs. Given the width of the path it was a bit difficult to stay 1m apart so I tried to cross with a minimum of disturbance. One told me to be careful because cycling was banned (which it wasn't because &) it isn't on this path, although mopeds are, 2) I was exercising individually and in my "quartier", less than 2kms - probably less than 1km - from home and 3) I was on my way home after buying food). I don't suppose that she had her attestation and carte d'identité on her given the lack of pockets in her yoga pants but I wasn't going to stop to argue with her given the risk that she might be infected. If I go out that way I might well stick to the road after all - i would rather not run the risk of catching Covid-19 from a careless dog-walker. I take more care when I walk my dog!
Limoges is starting to get some cases now. I will have a better picture when my wife goes back to work in a couple of days; she is on réanimation (ICU to you).
Food for thought - FOR ALL.
Actually I thought it was really dumb to drive a car-full of climbers from Surrey to Snowdonia, then go climbing with ropes and get rescued by helichopper etc.Food for thought - FOR ALL.
Nope.
Its whataboutery from mattc ;)
Bollocks, matt. It was whataboutery. That is why you posted it in the audax thread. If it wasnt then we would have seen you espousing caution towards riding.
You are nothing if not predictable :-*
.As an aside Germany is interesting more cases than France but massively less in terms of deaths (and no confinement)....Anybody know why???The German death toll looks surprisingly low for the number of reported cases. They may be at a different point in the spread of the disease and be measuring different things. Nothing I've seen or read in the German media suggests citizens are behaving differently to other European populations and surely their healthcare system isn't that much better than Switzerland's, which is currently showing a similar number of deaths on a third of the number of positive tests. I suspect there are too many variables to be able to make a useful comparison.
Bollocks, matt. It was whataboutery. That is why you posted it in the audax thread. If it wasnt then we would have seen you espousing caution towards riding.
You are nothing if not predictable :-*
Well it would be if it had been made in good faith, which it wasnt. Hence Matt's toys-out-of-pram rage at being exposed.
.As an aside Germany is interesting more cases than France but massively less in terms of deaths (and no confinement)....Anybody know why???The German death toll looks surprisingly low for the number of reported cases. They may be at a different point in the spread of the disease and be measuring different things. Nothing I've seen or read in the German media suggests citizens are behaving differently to other European populations and surely their healthcare system isn't that much better than Switzerland's, which is currently showing a similar number of deaths on a third of the number of positive tests. I suspect there are too many variables to be able to make a useful comparison.
I'm surprised that McD's took 48 hrs to announce they are to close; why ate they not classed as restaurants?The takeaway and drive through stayed open. The restaurants, if you want to call them that, were already closed, in some cases before it became compulsory.
Germany has banned meetings of more than 2 people..As an aside Germany is interesting more cases than France but massively less in terms of deaths (and no confinement)....Anybody know why???The German death toll looks surprisingly low for the number of reported cases. They may be at a different point in the spread of the disease and be measuring different things. Nothing I've seen or read in the German media suggests citizens are behaving differently to other European populations and surely their healthcare system isn't that much better than Switzerland's, which is currently showing a similar number of deaths on a third of the number of positive tests. I suspect there are too many variables to be able to make a useful comparison.
You could be mistaken for Switzerland: https://www.republik.ch/2020/03/20/die-zahl-der-todesfaelle-haben-wir-aus-wikipedia-entnommen?utm_source=pocket-newtab&fbclid=IwAR0oeuBfTim6y2139ZNgNIAXvy0hfnf9ZK_b9gwB57tbsRBpyley-yhaNcU
In short: The Swiss govt. institute for public health is so badly organised that they currently count the amount of corona cases by the weight of the faxes with reports since they are several days behind with data entrying everything manually ......
You could be mistaken for Switzerland: https://www.republik.ch/2020/03/20/die-zahl-der-todesfaelle-haben-wir-aus-wikipedia-entnommen?utm_source=pocket-newtab&fbclid=IwAR0oeuBfTim6y2139ZNgNIAXvy0hfnf9ZK_b9gwB57tbsRBpyley-yhaNcUFeck me, I didn't know whether to laugh or cry when reading that. So not only does measurement of the various reported values differ, but the timeliness and accuracy of their reporting is also variable. Only goes to reinforce the point that there are too many variables to make a useful comparison. Danke auch fuer die Kurzfassung.
In short: The Swiss govt. institute for public health is so badly organised that they currently count the amount of corona cases by the weight of the faxes with reports since they are several days behind with data entrying everything manually ......
DavefMorbihan probably got infected by parisians, like the Ile d'Oléron.
No - over here it started in the outskirts of Paris (Oise) but then some clusters in the Alps( due to Brit skiing twonks) and then further around eastern France due to a massive religious meeting, oh and the Morbihan, to be just about all over. The worst areas are Alsace and Lorraine where the hospitals can no longer cope and are medivacing patients to areas where there are fewer incidents of covid19, like Bordeaux and Toulon...
The biggest problem here is the lack of testing - A month ago the wife and I both had a majority of symptoms but as it wasn't officially here (but in the next departement) we didn't have it, period....this was from the equivalent of the nhs helpline...A month on after being in isolation we still have the odd flare up of symptoms , sore throat, aching joints, cough etc.... it would be great to have the possibility of the antibody test, so we can stop worrying about getting it! Whilst the official figures show just over 11000 cases, the Health Minister estimates the true figure is 30 - 90,000 !!!!!!!!
As an aside Germany is interesting more cases than France but massively less in terms of deaths (and no confinement)....Anybody know why???
.As an aside Germany is interesting more cases than France but massively less in terms of deaths (and no confinement)....Anybody know why???The German death toll looks surprisingly low for the number of reported cases. They may be at a different point in the spread of the disease and be measuring different things. Nothing I've seen or read in the German media suggests citizens are behaving differently to other European populations and surely their healthcare system isn't that much better than Switzerland's, which is currently showing a similar number of deaths on a third of the number of positive tests. I suspect there are too many variables to be able to make a useful comparison.
IE she still seems to be aiming for herd immunity.
stats for the uk are looking ok so far
stats for the uk are looking ok so far, it's about time for the curve to either go sharply up (let's hope not) or carry on gently up and flatten between france's/s.korea's trendlines. in latter case there's hope that cycling events are reinstated mid-summer(ish).
(https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/21112.jpeg)
countries should be testing every single person every time they interact with someone
The U.K. has actually done a relatively high amount of testing 64,000 so far with capacity at 6000 per day. The testing capacity is due to go up to 25,000 per day. There is also a self administered antibody test on the way that will tell you if have had it already. It takes around 10 minutes (but might come up as negative if you have it but are in early stages). There is hospital testing and there is a bit of random testing of people without symptoms as well. With this amount of information a number of infected people (including asymptomatic) can be calculated.countries should be testing every single person every time they interact with someone
That would be nice but the UK's current test capacity (well, last time I saw it reported) was only 4000 tests per day.
With 560,000 frontline NHS workers it means it could test each of them every 140 days (assuming no-one else is tested).
To test everyone in the UK at that rate would take just under 46 years.
Whilst so few tests can be performed every day there is little point worrying about testing[1]. If the cases continue to grow at the rate they are it will only be a week or two before the number of new cases each day outstrips the current testing capacity.
I've no idea why the UK's testing capacity is so low compared to other countries.
Also, the current test (for the virus itself) takes 3-5 days to return a result. Someone who gets a negative result could be positive by the time they receive their result.
Someone who has had the virus (possibly entirely asymptomatically) could return a negative on the 'is the virus present' test. AIUI there is no high capacity antibody test to tell whether someone has had the virus or not and whether they display immunity (to the current strain[2]). It's also unknown for how long someone would still likely to be contagious even if they test positive on a suitable antibody test - they would need to perform both live virus and antibody tests together and there's still a delay for the results in which time that person is in limbo (not so good if they are a frontline NHS worker).
It really isn't as simple as "we just need to test more" (although that is obviously true).
1. That doesn't mean we shouldn't be throwing resources at it to ramp it up.
2. If it mutates significantly then all bets are off.
The U.K. has actually done a relatively high amount of testing 64,000 so far with capacity at 6000 per day.
The testing capacity is due to go up to 25,000 per day.I shall believe that when I see it. Johnson said 250,000 a day the other day too - you can believe him if you want. I don't.
Johnson said 250,000 a day the other day too
Compared to other countries at the same stage. If you take the number of tests done and divide by the number of deaths.The U.K. has actually done a relatively high amount of testing 64,000 so far with capacity at 6000 per day.
On what planet is this 'relatively high'? Compared to whom?The testing capacity is due to go up to 25,000 per day.I shall believe that when I see it. Johnson said 250,000 a day the other day too - you can believe him if you want. I don't.
Also the death rate is *highly* misleading as discussed only a few posts above. But additionally to that- it depends on what you count as a COVID-19 death too. Different countries are counting these differently - if you take away the 'with underlying health conditions' people away from Italy's total it looks like almost no-one has died from it.
Yeah, but next year will be lower :P
Yeah, but next year will be lower :P
Bit like pub occupancy on Mothers Day next year
Also the death rate is *highly* misleading as discussed only a few posts above. But additionally to that- it depends on what you count as a COVID-19 death too. Different countries are counting these differently - if you take away the 'with underlying health conditions' people away from Italy's total it looks like almost no-one has died from it.
Eh? Sure there are co-morbidities but the point is that this disease is killing people earlier than they would have died from those underlying health conditions.
Reopen in August, reclose in November. It will align with the grouse shooting season, or similar. And Randonneur Round the Year will become Randonneur Through The Quarter.Yeah, but next year will be lower :P
Bit like pub occupancy on Mothers Day next year
you think they will have reopened by then?
Where are you getting your figures from? Sorry but I'm naturally sceptical, I'd be interested to see the source.Can't say where anyone else gets their numbers, but this seems a reliable source based on information available.
Where are you getting your figures from? Sorry but I'm naturally sceptical, I'd be interested to see the source.Can't say where anyone else gets their numbers, but this seems a reliable source based on information available.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing (https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing)
What works in one country might not in another.
What works in one country might not in another.
Why not?
What works in one country might not in another.
Why not?
There are many reasons, geographical, demographic, social and legal.
What works in one country might not in another.
Why not?
It is not just political will. Here we are on the web openly criticising the government strategy. Our posts are appearing and we are not fearing a knock on the door from the police and a gentle beating.
What works in one country might not in another.
Why not?
I guess it's not so much that the methods don't work but that there isn't the political will/competence to implement them effectively.
It is not just political will. Here we are on the web openly criticising the government strategy. Our posts are appearing and we are not fearing a knock on the door from the police and a gentle beating.
What works in one country might not in another.
Why not?
I guess it's not so much that the methods don't work but that there isn't the political will/competence to implement them effectively.
What works in one country might not in another.
Why not?
Behavioural differences
Demographic differences
Geographical differences
Differences in living situations (e.g. places with grandparents living with families vs those that tend not to)
Differences in healthcare capacity
Differences in stock / availability of PPE
Lots of other reasons too I'm sure
It is not just political will. Here we are on the web openly criticising the government strategy. Our posts are appearing and we are not fearing a knock on the door from the police and a gentle beating.
What works in one country might not in another.
Why not?
I guess it's not so much that the methods don't work but that there isn't the political will/competence to implement them effectively.
That would not, in itself, prevent a testing strategy from taking place or being effective....ask the Chinese.
Very similar strategy in Germany. Free press, no beatings.
What works in one country might not in another.
Why not?
Behavioural differences
Demographic differences
Geographical differences
Differences in living situations (e.g. places with grandparents living with families vs those that tend not to)
Differences in healthcare capacity
Differences in stock / availability of PPE
Lots of other reasons too I'm sure
Yes to the bolded, although it isnt really a question of testing strategies not working, rather that resources do not allow.
I'm not sure how the other factors you cite would impede a given testing regimen.
Behavioural differences
Demographic differences
Geographical differences
Differences in living situations (e.g. places with grandparents living with families vs those that tend not to)
Differences in healthcare capacity
Differences in stock / availability of PPE
Lots of other reasons too I'm sure
Behavioural differencesThose aren't reasons, they're excuses.
Demographic differences
Geographical differences
Differences in living situations (e.g. places with grandparents living with families vs those that tend not to)
Differences in healthcare capacity
Differences in stock / availability of PPE
Lots of other reasons too I'm sure
No they're reasons that the strategy different countries take might be different.
The South Korean model of contact tracing predominately through smart phone tracking would not work well in say Nigeria where only 1 in 7 has a smartphone.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
The South Korean model of contact tracing predominately through smart phone tracking would not work well in say Nigeria where only 1 in 7 has a smartphone.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Would kind of, have worked here with the right decision made at the right time though huh?
I was giving an example of what works in one country might not work in another. Specifically mobile phone tracking here, the experts felt it could not be achieved legally in the timeframe. It is being discussed for the next wave. We have sufficient numbers of smart phones though as a bigger country less 3G coverage. Different populations behave in different ways - South Korea for example has the lowest birth rate of any country in the world which is probably completely irrelevant but interesting.The South Korean model of contact tracing predominately through smart phone tracking would not work well in say Nigeria where only 1 in 7 has a smartphone.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Would kind of, have worked here with the right decision made at the right time though huh?
The South Korean model of contact tracing predominately through smart phone tracking would not work well in say Nigeria where only 1 in 7 has a smartphone.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Would kind of, have worked here with the right decision made at the right time though huh?
We don't have enough people watching the dots. Other countries have rather larger internal intelligence services to do this sort of thing.
And GDPR.
Which would you prefer - liberty or DEATH?
probably one for someone living in France but what sort of jobs are peeps still going out to do that they can't do remotely?
Getting very frustrated by remote working, peeps in London can't believe that we live in an area that can't get fibre broadband. Plus going through hoops to actually get to be in front of my work PC with all its programmes I need rather than just glorified chat rooms
I would also say removals but those are a grey area because they are being actively discouraged.
I would also say removals but those are a grey area because they are being actively discouraged.
If you've exchanged then you're legally obliged to move otherwise you could forego the deposit (usually 10% of the house price) although these should be extenuating circumstances to push the completion date back.
The builders doing some garden work (patio and fencing) were in the garden doing work for the upstairs flat (and finishing off the fence between their garden and ours). I read something on the BBC to say that this kind of stuff was allowed as long as social distancing is taken into consideration. I've loaned one of the builders a bike for the rest of the week so that he doesn't have to use public transport (the others arrive by van).
Once you have both agreed a contract choosing not to complete could lose some or all of the deposit. However late completion would normally just result in costs such as loan interest falling on the delaying party. However neither party is at fault if the govt has forbidden the move.I would also say removals but those are a grey area because they are being actively discouraged.
If you've exchanged then you're legally obliged to move otherwise you could forego the deposit (usually 10% of the house price) although these should be extenuating circumstances to push the completion date back.
The builders doing some garden work (patio and fencing) were in the garden doing work for the upstairs flat (and finishing off the fence between their garden and ours). I read something on the BBC to say that this kind of stuff was allowed as long as social distancing is taken into consideration. I've loaned one of the builders a bike for the rest of the week so that he doesn't have to use public transport (the others arrive by van).
I was chatting to someone the other day who is planning to move (UK) in a few weeks time. She said that they had had a clause inserted in the contract to provide for a delay if either party had to self-isolate.
I wonder if house moves might be delayed, en masse, though? Hard for removal men to self-isolate.
Royal Parks have closed Richmond Park to cyclists as they weren't following social distancing rules. It had been closed to cars last week.
(Key workers can cycle commute through, they just need to talk to the Police that will now be required to man the gates.)
Royal Parks have closed Richmond Park to cyclists as they weren't following social distancing rules. It had been closed to cars last week.
Royal Parks have closed Richmond Park to cyclists as they weren't following social distancing rules. It had been closed to cars last week.
(Key workers can cycle commute through, they just need to talk to the Police that will now be required to man the gates.)
Ah, interesting, although I believe it's the sheer number of cyclists that are trying to get through the pedestrian gates and not following social distancing protocols that is the main contribution to the problem.
Temporary (movable - since a few people live inside the park and need very occasional access) bollards to prevent cars using the gates would hopefully still allow cyclists and pedestrians to flow through.
Here’s hoping that the council and the Royal Parks find a solution, even if only for weekdays.
I’m seeing a lot of people out exercising cycling or walking who clearly aren’t used to it. If the lockdown is long enough it may become a habit and something positive comes out of it.Yes, that's the impression I'm getting. Normally calling people newbies or "not used to it" would be jumped on as incredibly judgemental, but hopefully in this case it's all positive!
Don't know if this link has been posted in the previous discussions yet, but, looks like a genuine and helpful study...it isn't a study.
https://medium.com/@jurgenthoelen/belgian-dutch-study-why-in-times-of-covid-19-you-can-not-walk-run-bike-close-to-each-other-a5df19c77d08
[url]https://medium.com/@jurgenthoelen/belgian-dutch-study-why-in-times-of-covid-19-you-can-not-walk-run-bike-close-to-each-other-a5df19c77d08/url]
Don't know if this link has been posted in the previous discussions yet, but, looks like a genuine and helpful study...it isn't a study.
https://medium.com/@jurgenthoelen/belgian-dutch-study-why-in-times-of-covid-19-you-can-not-walk-run-bike-close-to-each-other-a5df19c77d08
[url]https://medium.com/@jurgenthoelen/belgian-dutch-study-why-in-times-of-covid-19-you-can-not-walk-run-bike-close-to-each-other-a5df19c77d08/url]
https://www.bicycling.com/news/a32097735/coronavirus-viral-simulation/
Question 17: Should people not decide to stop exercising outside?
No. The crisis is very large and mental and physical health are important and walking, running and cycling
do contribute to both mental and physical health. Our study is intended to indicate how social distancing
should be done in those situations. From the beginning, the World Health Organization WHO and the
CDC have recommended to keep a distance of at least 1 m or 2 m, acknowledging that this is not always
possible especially in public transportation. We are obviously not these prestigious organizations but we
are providing recommendations using reliable results to minimize the risk of contamination
acknowledging that they cannot always been followed.
‐‐‐ END OF DOCUMENT ‐‐‐
The problem is that even if correct it will be misinterpreted. Basically it is saying don’t ride or run as a group slipstreaming, go side by side. You are not allowed to ride as a group anyway. The public will read headlines like “2m not sufficient social distancing for runners and cyclists” and think runners and cyclists need greater clearance and can more easily spread to pedestrians.Exactly. Whole bunch of clever and educated people out there who don't model how what they put out will be misinterpreted and/or weaponised.
Regarding exercise at the moment, moderate exercise improves the immune system, so you are less likely to catch covid-19.
It implies nothing of the sort. You do however have an innate “generic” immune system as well as the adaptive “learned” immune system. I was advising people to avoid pangolins and I saw no problems with audaxes if people had to ride solo, with only info controls. I was absolutely not saying to carry on as normal.Regarding exercise at the moment, moderate exercise improves the immune system, so you are less likely to catch covid-19.
Sure about that?
That implies some people have natural immunity to Covid.
Mind you, a month ago you were advising people to just carry on as normal but avoid pangolins. ::-)
I posted the article, to advertise the reality of cycling, slipstreaming, and passing, or being passed by other cyclists... I still see cyclists following others on the roads, its just to reinforce the issue... I am aware of the disinformation out there, and checked that the study was genuine... As an ex NHS Paramedic and previously a lecturer in global health dn pandemic crisis response, I think the article is valid... Whether the correct grammar of English and its use is important, is up for interpretation... A moot point... Stay safe folks, stay at home, eat CAKE, and cycle it off when this is over... X
With 80% of people expected to 'catch' Coronavirus, I'm not sure you are correct. If what you meant was that the outcome might be better for fitter people, then yes.
No, I meant exactly what I said. 80% is a worst case scenario not an expected value. Even so I would rather be part of the 20%.
Edit: and it depends also on what you mean by ‘catch’, if you are exposed to the virus and your innate immune system kills it off, or it hangs around long enough for the adaptive system to kick in and you dont get ill. On that definition about 5-10 million people currently have or have had it in the U.K. already.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Regarding exercise at the moment, moderate exercise improves the immune system, so you are less likely to catch covid-19.
Sure about that?
That implies some people have natural immunity to Covid.
Mind you, a month ago you were advising people to just carry on as normal but avoid pangolins. ::-)
With 80% of people expected to 'catch' Coronavirus, I'm not sure you are correct. If what you meant was that the outcome might be better for fitter people, then yes.You've let Davef off the hook. Coronavirus is the (class of) virus, COVID-19 the disease, so you can be infected with the virus but without the disease, if you're one of the many we're told have asymptomatic infection. :P
You are not allowed to ride as a group anyway
The study may be valid or it may be total bollocks, but the complete absence of any official guidance of how the "2m rule" applies to moving objects is real.
Apparently if you sit on the back of a group and never take a turn then you are cycling in a stream of exhaled droplets. if you spend more time at the front you are safe.
With 80% of people expected to 'catch' Coronavirus, I'm not sure you are correct. If what you meant was that the outcome might be better for fitter people, then yes.
Best estimates suggest 5-10% at most in countries which have long past their peak... so, unless there is a massive second wave, I don't we'll get anywhere near 80% any time soon.
Anecdotally, I know only one person who has tested positive...
cut
Edit: and it depends also on what you mean by ‘catch’, if you are exposed to the virus and your innate immune system kills it off, or it hangs around long enough for the adaptive system to kick in and you dont get ill. On that definition about 5-10 million people currently have or have had it in the U.K. already.
cut
With 80% of people expected to 'catch' Coronavirus, I'm not sure you are correct. If what you meant was that the outcome might be better for fitter people, then yes.
Best estimates suggest 5-10% at most in countries which have long past their peak... so, unless there is a massive second wave, I don't we'll get anywhere near 80% any time soon.
Anecdotally, I know only one person who has tested positive...
Aye there's the rub - testing??? Unless antibody tests are widely available we'll never know the true extent of this pandemic.....Let alone how many audax riders have had it???
I have far less data than Patrick Vallance so I am looking at cumulative deaths to date and the shapes of the death curves in Spain and Italy to estimate cumulative deaths in 3 weeks time (average time to death from infection is 3 weeks) and then using by the fatal infection attack ratios from China.cut
Edit: and it depends also on what you mean by ‘catch’, if you are exposed to the virus and your innate immune system kills it off, or it hangs around long enough for the adaptive system to kick in and you dont get ill. On that definition about 5-10 million people currently have or have had it in the U.K. already.
cut
Where does the 5 to 10 million come from? I ask because Patrick Vallence came out with a high number too. I don't know what it's based on.
I have to have regular blood tests and had one last week and was asked to donate a bit more (actually quite a big phial) for a double blind experiment at Oxford which was trying to test something around immunity, but I had no real details.
We arent half way through and we are only on the first curve. We are a long way off being over this, I'm afraid.
We arent half way through and we are only on the first curve. We are a long way off being over this, I'm afraid.
You have been fairly pessimistic all the way through, however, if you look at the shape of the contagion curve, then we are at the top, more or less, you can argue there will just as many or maybe twice as many before it falls to very low numbers, but not 10 times as many.
Hospital admissions, which is another, probably better way to look at it are already falling in London, so it's past the peak of infection... of course hospital admissions are about 3-4 days ahead of test results and probably 7-10 days behind the real picture.
So, if you look at today, in terms of how many people will get in contact with the virus, that should be significantly less than what the tests show, which is a snapshot of a couple of weeks ago, give or take.
Of course it's not over... it might never be over, but I doubt it will get worse in terms of hospital admissions, patients in ICU and so on, which is what you seem to imply
You said you that are expecting an 80% infection rate. I would regard that as pessimistic as that would result in around 350,000 deaths.We arent half way through and we are only on the first curve. We are a long way off being over this, I'm afraid.
You have been fairly pessimistic all the way through, however, if you look at the shape of the contagion curve, then we are at the top, more or less, you can argue there will just as many or maybe twice as many before it falls to very low numbers, but not 10 times as many.
Hospital admissions, which is another, probably better way to look at it are already falling in London, so it's past the peak of infection... of course hospital admissions are about 3-4 days ahead of test results and probably 7-10 days behind the real picture.
So, if you look at today, in terms of how many people will get in contact with the virus, that should be significantly less than what the tests show, which is a snapshot of a couple of weeks ago, give or take.
Of course it's not over... it might never be over, but I doubt it will get worse in terms of hospital admissions, patients in ICU and so on, which is what you seem to imply
Bolded: I think you'll find I haven't. I dont think I made any predictions other than saying we would be in lockdown when some other people were having pointless arguments about whether they should do an audax that I (correctly) said would not be happening.
This will not be a sharp spike and sharp decline situation. It's a sharp spike, then a long gentle decline, and all the while people will be dying in their hundreds, daily. We are not, as you suggest, half way through this.
Remember: There is no vaccine.
Thank you, but this doesn't take where the 5-10m or Patrick Valance number comes from forward. Taiwan which has probably dealt with CV better (and tested better) than any other country has had a death rate of 1.5%. Given the UK's under measuring of everything, that probably translates to a million who have had CV bad enough to notice it. Until large scale studies like the one I contributed blood to give some results, all we have are models and I can't see how the infection rate for symptomless people is anything other than a guess.I have far less data than Patrick Vallance so I am looking at cumulative deaths to date and the shapes of the death curves in Spain and Italy to estimate cumulative deaths in 3 weeks time (average time to death from infection is 3 weeks) and then using by the fatal infection attack ratios from China.cut
Edit: and it depends also on what you mean by ‘catch’, if you are exposed to the virus and your innate immune system kills it off, or it hangs around long enough for the adaptive system to kick in and you dont get ill. On that definition about 5-10 million people currently have or have had it in the U.K. already.
cut
Where does the 5 to 10 million come from? I ask because Patrick Vallence came out with a high number too. I don't know what it's based on.
I have to have regular blood tests and had one last week and was asked to donate a bit more (actually quite a big phial) for a double blind experiment at Oxford which was trying to test something around immunity, but I had no real details.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
I was using a CFR of 1.38% and and IFR of 0.66% from latest research. So take cumulative deaths to date and multiple by 150 gives you cumulative infection of 2m people three weeks ago. St thomas covid 19 tracker which is taking data from 2m people have my local current infection rate at 2.5% down from 4.77% just over a week ago which is compatible.Thank you, but this doesn't take where the 5-10m or Patrick Valance number comes from forward. Taiwan which has probably dealt with CV better (and tested better) than any other country has had a death rate of 1.5%. Given the UK's under measuring of everything, that probably translates to a million who have had CV bad enough to notice it. Until large scale studies like the one I contributed blood to give some results, all we have are models and I can't see how the infection rate for symptomless people is anything other than a guess.I have far less data than Patrick Vallance so I am looking at cumulative deaths to date and the shapes of the death curves in Spain and Italy to estimate cumulative deaths in 3 weeks time (average time to death from infection is 3 weeks) and then using by the fatal infection attack ratios from China.cut
Edit: and it depends also on what you mean by ‘catch’, if you are exposed to the virus and your innate immune system kills it off, or it hangs around long enough for the adaptive system to kick in and you dont get ill. On that definition about 5-10 million people currently have or have had it in the U.K. already.
cut
Where does the 5 to 10 million come from? I ask because Patrick Vallence came out with a high number too. I don't know what it's based on.
I have to have regular blood tests and had one last week and was asked to donate a bit more (actually quite a big phial) for a double blind experiment at Oxford which was trying to test something around immunity, but I had no real details.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
I'm not expecting 80% of the population to die from coronavirus, no. ::-)Sorry typo, I shortened the post and removed some words
Without a vaccine, worst case scenario for infection is the scenario. If it all comes at once, lots of dead people because NHS swamped. Without a vaccine, this current curve will not be the only curve. Also, without a vaccine, the curve is not even, it's a sharp rise and long decline. People dont stop dying just because the 'peak' is reached. This isnt pessimism, this is reality. Last time I checked there was no vaccine. It is estimated that it will take a year, minimum. Even when it is developed and approved it will take a long time to vaccinate 66, 000, 000 people, wont it.
I'd love for the above to be 'pessimistic', but unless I've misunderstood the science (which is possible), it isnt.
That's great news.
What isnt great news is that still leaves us with 60-63 million people who have no antibodies. And there is no vaccine.
We won't be wiped out, no.
But our way of life will be changed somewhat.
There have always been selfish individuals in the human race, and general it is money and power that has fortified them in the past. Now there's a risk that it is Human Rights and the individualising of humanity that fortifies selfish people.
The problem is that even if correct it will be misinterpreted. Basically it is saying don’t ride or run as a group slipstreaming, go side by side.
There is no vaccine, Dave, and we can't all stay at home until one has been developed and we've been inoculated.I understand no vaccine is in production yet. I never suggested that the future measures will simply be a continuation of the current measures.
It's a pandemic, and we are at the beginning of it.
“In these times of COVID-19, many people are tempted to go outside for a relaxing walk, or to do some running or cycling. But be careful: it is best to stay outside each other’s slipstream to avoid becoming infected by the coronavirus, according to research by Eindhoven University of Technology and KU Leuven in Belgium.” Is how the profs university describe it.The problem is that even if correct it will be misinterpreted. Basically it is saying don’t ride or run as a group slipstreaming, go side by side.
No it isn't. It's just modelling how droplets behave. It says nothing about virus transmission or what people should do to avoid it.
“In these times of COVID-19, many people are tempted to go outside for a relaxing walk, or to do some running or cycling. But be careful: it is best to stay outside each other’s slipstream to avoid becoming infected by the coronavirus, according to research by Eindhoven University of Technology and KU Leuven in Belgium.” Is how the profs university describe it.The problem is that even if correct it will be misinterpreted. Basically it is saying don’t ride or run as a group slipstreaming, go side by side.
No it isn't. It's just modelling how droplets behave. It says nothing about virus transmission or what people should do to avoid it.
The study in question was about aerodynamics, and didn't pretend to say anything about viral load or infectiousness. All you can reasonably conclude from it is that if you're far enough away you won't be in a cloud of droplets, not that said cloud is actually a viable means of transmitting the virus.
This however was the other way round it was picked up by the press before it was even written. Spooky.“In these times of COVID-19, many people are tempted to go outside for a relaxing walk, or to do some running or cycling. But be careful: it is best to stay outside each other’s slipstream to avoid becoming infected by the coronavirus, according to research by Eindhoven University of Technology and KU Leuven in Belgium.” Is how the profs university describe it.The problem is that even if correct it will be misinterpreted. Basically it is saying don’t ride or run as a group slipstreaming, go side by side.
No it isn't. It's just modelling how droplets behave. It says nothing about virus transmission or what people should do to avoid it.
Surely we're all familiar with the way a niche academic study gets egged-up in a university press-release before some minor detail is picked up on by the press? It's the natural process by which misinformation is turned into funding.
The study in question was about aerodynamics, and didn't pretend to say anything about viral load or infectiousness. All you can reasonably conclude from it is that if you're far enough away you won't be in a cloud of droplets, not that said cloud is actually a viable means of transmitting the virus.
https://assets.tue.nl/fileadmin/content/pers/2020/04%20April/COVID19_Aero_Paper.pdf
The study in question was about aerodynamics, and didn't pretend to say anything about viral load or infectiousness. All you can reasonably conclude from it is that if you're far enough away you won't be in a cloud of droplets, not that said cloud is actually a viable means of transmitting the virus.
+1
We won't be wiped out, no.
But our way of life will be changed somewhat.
There have always been selfish individuals in the human race, and general it is money and power that has fortified them in the past. Now there's a risk that it is Human Rights and the individualising of humanity that fortifies selfish people.
Agree...
There are opportunities to change the way we do things. If we got rid of the football semi-billionaires that would be a good outcome
I'll take my coat... ::-)
And concludes “This suggests that avoiding substantial droplet exposure in the conditions of this study and in a way equivalent to the 1.5 m for people standing still can be achieved by one of two actions: either by avoiding to walk or run in the slipstream of the leading person and keeping the 1.5 m distance in staggered or side by side arrangement, or by keeping larger social distances, where the distances increase with the walking or running speed.”
Stats have a function for anyone who lives in a property with more than one floor.Exercise is necessary too.
Cycling has a function for shopping or going to work.
Stats have a function for anyone who lives in a property with more than one floor.Exercise is necessary too.
Cycling has a function for shopping or going to work.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
In the short term specifically for covid-19, exercise that lowers bmi if you are overweight or obese, that lowers blood pressure, reduces stress and improves cardiovascular fitness. This all also improves innate immune response. I would avoid extremes of duration or effort. I would also consider improving diet, reducing alcohol and caffeine.How quickly would one expect their bmi to be reduced? Days?
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
In the short term specifically for covid-19, exercise that lowers bmi if you are overweight or obese, that lowers blood pressure, reduces stress and improves cardiovascular fitness. This all also improves innate immune response. I would avoid extremes of duration or effort. I would also consider improving diet, reducing alcohol and caffeine.How quickly would one expect their bmi to be reduced? Days?
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Is it sensible in a time of high stress to be advocating excessive weight reduction measures?
I am not advocating excessive weight reduction in a few days. 1% per week is considered safe, but possibly less than that. Cardiovascular and innate immune system improvements are measurable after only a matter of days, which I find incredible. It is a couple of months since the virus reached our shores and it will be months or years before normality is returned.In the short term specifically for covid-19, exercise that lowers bmi if you are overweight or obese, that lowers blood pressure, reduces stress and improves cardiovascular fitness. This all also improves innate immune response. I would avoid extremes of duration or effort. I would also consider improving diet, reducing alcohol and caffeine.How quickly would one expect their bmi to be reduced? Days?
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Is it sensible in a time of high stress to be advocating excessive weight reduction measures?
Is it sensible in a time of high stress to be advocating excessive weight reduction measures?
In the short term specifically for covid-19, exercise that lowers bmi if you are overweight or obese, that lowers blood pressure, reduces stress and improves cardiovascular fitness. This all also improves innate immune response. I would avoid extremes of duration or effort. I would also consider improving diet, reducing alcohol and caffeine.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Is it sensible in a time of high stress to be advocating excessive weight reduction measures?
Why high stress?
I'm working from home and doing very little, I don't have children to school or elderly parents to worry (too much) about... I am eating home cooked food every meal... I get to do one beautiful bike ride a day on quiet road while nature is in bloom, I've got flowers in my garden and birds coming to the feeder, my chances of getting into contact with the virus are limited to one shopping a week which I do in the evening when it's very quiet...
I don't feel very stressed at all and I have reduced my BMI from 23.5 to 22.5... ;D
If it wasn't for the death toll and the profound damage to the economy, I'd sign for this lifestyle any day
Is it sensible in a time of high stress to be advocating excessive weight reduction measures?
Why high stress?
I'm working from home and doing very little, I don't have children to school or elderly parents to worry (too much) about... I am eating home cooked food every meal... I get to do one beautiful bike ride a day on quiet road while nature is in bloom, I've got flowers in my garden and birds coming to the feeder, my chances of getting into contact with the virus are limited to one shopping a week which I do in the evening when it's very quiet...
I don't feel very stressed at all and I have reduced my BMI from 23.5 to 22.5... ;D
If it wasn't for the death toll and the profound damage to the economy, I'd sign for this lifestyle any day
"I"
Yes, "I"... and I'm not alone... of the 100 or so folks I follow on Strava, all I see is people having a great time... don't see much stress.
Mind boggling. Pretty fucked up that the elderly are being dragooned in to raising money for a public service which should be funded by taxing wealth in the first place.
Yes, "I"... and I'm not alone... of the 100 or so folks I follow on Strava, all I see is people having a great time... don't see much stress. Should we feel guilty for having it good when times are hard? Do others feel guilty when they have it good and we have it bad? I don't drink, don't go to pubs, hardly ever go to restaurants, very rarely visit friends and my relatives live abroad, so in many ways it is not much different from normal life.
I want this to go away as much as anybody else, but I don't have a magic wand... all I can do is follow the rules, help if any of my neighbours need and do my best to keep my physical and mental health in a good place.
I don't feel guilty and if I sound selfish, then so be it
Peter, that's a good summary.
I'm very lucky, where we live and so on. My Mum is self isolating and missing human contact. I remind her that having a garden is way, way preferable to being on floor 18 of an inner city tower block.
We are all in it together, although some much more so than others.
As has been said in the main Coronavirus thread, it's not for the NHS, but for NHS Charities Together.I know the distinction but it still makes me very uneasy. I feel we are sleepwalking into the NHS being something like the RNLI instead of what it should b, a cast iron and centrally funded public service that doesn't exist at the mercy of charity money.
The money isn't going into the pot that pays for medical equipment, PPE, salaries, etc.
Yes, "I"... and I'm not alone... of the 100 or so folks I follow on Strava, all I see is people having a great time... don't see much stress. Should we feel guilty for having it good when times are hard? Do others feel guilty when they have it good and we have it bad? I don't drink, don't go to pubs, hardly ever go to restaurants, very rarely visit friends and my relatives live abroad, so in many ways it is not much different from normal life.
I want this to go away as much as anybody else, but I don't have a magic wand... all I can do is follow the rules, help if any of my neighbours need and do my best to keep my physical and mental health in a good place.
I don't feel guilty and if I sound selfish, then so be it
One thing I've noticed is that people are giving me a lot more Kudos for my indoor training than normal. I've also heard stories about some very poor attitudes towards cyclists in our local area, and indeed a story of someone being pushed off their bike from a passing vehicle, and ending up needing hospital treatment. Our village is on a Sustrans route, and there are comments on the local Facebook about how cyclists passing through can't be local because "they're wearing lycra". These people are dangerous, stirring up hate, and on my *one* outdoor ride I've done recently I did make a point of using the bypass rather than cycling through the village I live in, due to the risk of coming across such ignorant attitudes.
For a country in lockdown, the roads didn't seem as quiet as I'd expected. Most of the drivers gave me far more room than normal, though.
As has been said in the main Coronavirus thread, it's not for the NHS, but for NHS Charities Together.I know the distinction but it still makes me very uneasy. I feel we are sleepwalking into the NHS being something like the RNLI instead of what it should b, a cast iron and centrally funded public service that doesn't exist at the mercy of charity money.
The money isn't going into the pot that pays for medical equipment, PPE, salaries, etc.
Did you guys not live through the HIV era?
That was stressful: no cure and not many chances of survival even for perfectly healthy individuals... and that lasted for years, before a drug became available... a vaccine never did, as far as I am aware. Yes, getting it wasn't as easy, but the outcome was far more dire.
Nor is contemplating the future, post-crisis, not least because the future is not at all clear. These last few weeks might prove to have been a golden age of innocence. Or they might not.
Always a laugh when cycling gets bigged up as some extreme sport.
Here's the media celebrating a 90 year old climbing up and down stairs, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52319318
In 2015 nearly 800 people in the UK were killed falling on stairs https://stairs.bwf.org.uk/jeremy-vine-show-steps-up-to-stair-safety/
Did you guys not live through the HIV era?It's completely different. The chance of getting HIV was almost entirely behaviour-based. The chance of getting Covid is random. Yes, there are things you can do to lessen the risk, but it's only a minor reduction particularly if there are others in your household who take less care. I don't think anyone got HIV from a parcel, a door handle or by shaking hands. Just as importantly for the perception of stress is the information gap; too little then, almost too much now.
That was stressful: no cure and not many chances of survival even for perfectly healthy individuals... and that lasted for years, before a drug became available... a vaccine never did, as far as I am aware. Yes, getting it wasn't as easy, but the outcome was far more dire.
Did you guys not live through the HIV era?It's completely different. The chance of getting HIV was almost entirely behaviour-based. The chance of getting Covid is random. Yes, there are things you can do to lessen the risk, but it's only a minor reduction particularly if there are others in your household who take less care. I don't think anyone got HIV from a parcel, a door handle or by shaking hands. Just as importantly for the perception of stress is the information gap; too little then, almost too much now.
That was stressful: no cure and not many chances of survival even for perfectly healthy individuals... and that lasted for years, before a drug became available... a vaccine never did, as far as I am aware. Yes, getting it wasn't as easy, but the outcome was far more dire.
It's completely different. The chance of getting HIV was almost entirely behaviour-based.
Hi!
We–that’s Ege, Oskar and Hannah–are students of psychology at Lund University (Sweden).
We would like to find out how people around Europe are feeling during the SARS-CoV-2 (coronavirus) pandemic and what influences their wellbeing during these special times.
To support us, we would greatly appreciate if you filled out this quick survey: https://lundpsychology.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_38d4ODPwLMoJCip
If you
- are at least 18 years old
- understand English at an intermediate level (you don’t have to be a native speaker)
- currently live in Europe (EU and non-EU countries)
you are eligible to be part of our research!
It will only take about 15 minutes for you and will help us a lot.
Best wishes from
Ege, Oskar and Hannah
Absolutely. They just didn't happen to be my lifestyle. And I wouldn't claim these are facts in any case – stress is about perception not real risks and consequences.It's completely different. The chance of getting HIV was almost entirely behaviour-based.
Many people who died of aids contracted it through what were fairly normal lifestyle choices (among their community), which until then had been relatively low risk. That's not really so different to why Covid-19 has spread so quickly.
It occurred to me the other day that we're very lucky Covid-19 isn't nearly as deadly as other viral illnesses like aids or ebola. Or that those illnesses aren't nearly as contagious as Covid-19.I believe ian has made various allusions to the likelihood that the pandemic we were due would have been worse, though I don't think he's elaborated in what ways.
Ebola doesn't become contagious until you develop symptoms, by which time people really don't need to be told to keep at least 2m away from you.
London roads stopped being empty on Tuesday.
My theory is that there's a lot of workers (and employers) who were kind of ok with skipping work if it was only for three weeks, but have now decided they can't be bothered / can't afford to. There's also a lot of people who have realised there are no police roadblocks and are going to see their mates (or whatever).
Cars being as space inefficient as they are, it only takes a fraction of the population to get back in theirs for the roads to seem busy.
Some hope?I'm not sure I agree with the conclusions, while elite sport is more complicated to organise, the sheer numbers involved at grassroots means more if an impact if it is done hastily, also better organisation at the top to mitigate the risks.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/52465031
You could insist on masks before the gun. You could limit entry by the final digit of park run number - eg to halve numbers evens this week odds next.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
For my local parkrun (Wimbledon Common) you'd probably have to limit it to 1/10th of the usual field, probably even less, such are the width of some of the paths on the early part of the course.
Some hope?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/52465031
Park run can be easily made socially distant...
It's not rocket science and nobody will catch the virus by standing for a couple of seconds within 2 mt of another... otherwise the average R wouldn't be 3, but more like 30
For my local parkrun (Wimbledon Common) you'd probably have to limit it to 1/10th of the usual field, probably even less, such are the width of some of the paths on the early part of the course.The last park run at Wimbledon common had 293 entrants, so 9kph. Also there is a time element to exposure. The South Koreans use 15 minutes at 2m as the criteria for a track and trace “hit”.
[ EDIT - let's have some fun with maths... ]
600 people funnel through here: https://goo.gl/maps/xwgG5J7CHAkdwSut6 within 400m of the start. The bit at the end is easily under 2m wide so everyone would need to go through one at a time.
The fast people (~15min) will be through 400m in just over a minute. The slow people (1h) will be through 400m in just under 5 minutes.
So you have 240 seconds to get 600 people through that gap one at a time, so each person has 0.4 seconds to travel 2m through the gap to maintain distance. 2m in 0.4 seconds is 18kph. Nope.
For my local parkrun (Wimbledon Common) you'd probably have to limit it to 1/10th of the usual field, probably even less, such are the width of some of the paths on the early part of the course.The last park run at Wimbledon common had 293 entrants, so 9kph. Also there is a time element to exposure. The South Koreans use 15 minutes at 2m as the criteria for a track and trace “hit”.
[ EDIT - let's have some fun with maths... ]
600 people funnel through here: https://goo.gl/maps/xwgG5J7CHAkdwSut6 within 400m of the start. The bit at the end is easily under 2m wide so everyone would need to go through one at a time.
The fast people (~15min) will be through 400m in just over a minute. The slow people (1h) will be through 400m in just under 5 minutes.
So you have 240 seconds to get 600 people through that gap one at a time, so each person has 0.4 seconds to travel 2m through the gap to maintain distance. 2m in 0.4 seconds is 18kph. Nope.
You can also carry on your maths, with r0 of 2.4 you are expecting in a non socially distance normal life (commuting, sharing beds, going to pub) one infected person over a 5.1 day period infect 2.4 other people. If there is one infected person on a park run for half an hour, how many do you think they could infect ?
Edit: and if the problem is a bottleneck near the start reverse the course.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Me, 7. You ?For my local parkrun (Wimbledon Common) you'd probably have to limit it to 1/10th of the usual field, probably even less, such are the width of some of the paths on the early part of the course.The last park run at Wimbledon common had 293 entrants, so 9kph. Also there is a time element to exposure. The South Koreans use 15 minutes at 2m as the criteria for a track and trace “hit”.
[ EDIT - let's have some fun with maths... ]
600 people funnel through here: https://goo.gl/maps/xwgG5J7CHAkdwSut6 within 400m of the start. The bit at the end is easily under 2m wide so everyone would need to go through one at a time.
The fast people (~15min) will be through 400m in just over a minute. The slow people (1h) will be through 400m in just under 5 minutes.
So you have 240 seconds to get 600 people through that gap one at a time, so each person has 0.4 seconds to travel 2m through the gap to maintain distance. 2m in 0.4 seconds is 18kph. Nope.
You can also carry on your maths, with r0 of 2.4 you are expecting in a non socially distance normal life (commuting, sharing beds, going to pub) one infected person over a 5.1 day period infect 2.4 other people. If there is one infected person on a park run for half an hour, how many do you think they could infect ?
Edit: and if the problem is a bottleneck near the start reverse the course.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
You've never been to or done a Parkrun, have you.
You can also carry on your maths, with r0 of 2.4 you are expecting in a non socially distance normal life (commuting, sharing beds, going to pub) one infected person over a 5.1 day period infect 2.4 other people. If there is one infected person on a park run for half an hour, how many do you think they could infect ?
There are two separate issues here - one is the actual risk of transmission, the other is compliance with current social distancing guidelines.Obviously it does not comply with the current rules which make it illegal to have gatherings of more than 2. We are guessing what the future loosening of restrictions might be.
The latter is an insurmountable problem for parkrun. Anyone who thinks otherwise is clueless.
On the former, is it really worth undertaking the experiment to find out exactly how many people can get infected?
We are guessing what the future loosening of restrictions might be.
Me, 7. You ?For my local parkrun (Wimbledon Common) you'd probably have to limit it to 1/10th of the usual field, probably even less, such are the width of some of the paths on the early part of the course.The last park run at Wimbledon common had 293 entrants, so 9kph. Also there is a time element to exposure. The South Koreans use 15 minutes at 2m as the criteria for a track and trace “hit”.
[ EDIT - let's have some fun with maths... ]
600 people funnel through here: https://goo.gl/maps/xwgG5J7CHAkdwSut6 within 400m of the start. The bit at the end is easily under 2m wide so everyone would need to go through one at a time.
The fast people (~15min) will be through 400m in just over a minute. The slow people (1h) will be through 400m in just under 5 minutes.
So you have 240 seconds to get 600 people through that gap one at a time, so each person has 0.4 seconds to travel 2m through the gap to maintain distance. 2m in 0.4 seconds is 18kph. Nope.
You can also carry on your maths, with r0 of 2.4 you are expecting in a non socially distance normal life (commuting, sharing beds, going to pub) one infected person over a 5.1 day period infect 2.4 other people. If there is one infected person on a park run for half an hour, how many do you think they could infect ?
Edit: and if the problem is a bottleneck near the start reverse the course.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
You've never been to or done a Parkrun, have you.
Edit: 7 different ones. Would have to check how many times in total.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
He'll change his mind... restrictions are here to stay... there might be restrictions in 10 years time.We are guessing what the future loosening of restrictions might be.
With regard to parkrun specifically, it's a moot point, since Paul Sinton-Hewitt has ruled out restarting parkrun with any restrictions, however loose.
He'll change his mind... restrictions are here to stay... there might be restrictions in 10 years time.
There will be some forms of social distancing until a vaccine is readily available, so many many months. Park run said yesterday there would be no park runs in May and 2 weeks notice will be given before restart. It may well be that they aren’t expecting any for many many months but I do not get that impression. I would be very surprised if by end of July there had not been some park runs in the uk.We are guessing what the future loosening of restrictions might be.
With regard to parkrun specifically, it's a moot point, since Paul Sinton-Hewitt has ruled out restarting parkrun with any restrictions, however loose.
I have a bigger range: smallest 11, biggest 1046.Me, 7. You ?For my local parkrun (Wimbledon Common) you'd probably have to limit it to 1/10th of the usual field, probably even less, such are the width of some of the paths on the early part of the course.The last park run at Wimbledon common had 293 entrants, so 9kph. Also there is a time element to exposure. The South Koreans use 15 minutes at 2m as the criteria for a track and trace “hit”.
[ EDIT - let's have some fun with maths... ]
600 people funnel through here: https://goo.gl/maps/xwgG5J7CHAkdwSut6 within 400m of the start. The bit at the end is easily under 2m wide so everyone would need to go through one at a time.
The fast people (~15min) will be through 400m in just over a minute. The slow people (1h) will be through 400m in just under 5 minutes.
So you have 240 seconds to get 600 people through that gap one at a time, so each person has 0.4 seconds to travel 2m through the gap to maintain distance. 2m in 0.4 seconds is 18kph. Nope.
You can also carry on your maths, with r0 of 2.4 you are expecting in a non socially distance normal life (commuting, sharing beds, going to pub) one infected person over a 5.1 day period infect 2.4 other people. If there is one infected person on a park run for half an hour, how many do you think they could infect ?
Edit: and if the problem is a bottleneck near the start reverse the course.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
You've never been to or done a Parkrun, have you.
Edit: 7 different ones. Would have to check how many times in total.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Oh, I've been around the world with Parkrun. Number of runners from c25 to c800
I cannot think of a single one that could easily and sensibly, given the low cost, volunteer-run nature, comply with social distancing and good bio-security.
He'll change his mind... restrictions are here to stay... there might be restrictions in 10 years time.
Maybe. Maybe not. It's all conjecture at this point.
When it first started, the council placed a restriction on numbers - 200, I think - because they didn't want the seafront being overrun. For the first few years, that wasn't an issue. But in the last couple of years, turnout has regularly been in excess of 400, and it's been clear to me for a while that it has outgrown its location (which is one of the reasons I tend to prefer to go to Canterbury parkrun instead these days).
I would be very surprised if by end of July there had not been some park runs in the uk.
It may be that for the long term, parkrun has to change how it operates if it is going to continue, but that would require changing the ethos of parkrun at a fundamental level.
Out of interest how did they enforce that? What happened if a mob from Herne Bay turned up for example?
It may be that for the long term, parkrun has to change how it operates if it is going to continue, but that would require changing the ethos of parkrun at a fundamental level.
Like democracy, freedom of speech... or capitalism?
previously all park runs in the world were stopped simultaneously and now “It is likely therefore that some countries will re-open before others, although, again, it’s too early to predict at this stage.”. I think it very unlikely that all park runs will restart on the same day. Some might not restart at all.I would be very surprised if by end of July there had not been some park runs in the uk.
It will be either all or none, for the reasons PSH has set out.
It may be that for the long term, parkrun has to change how it operates if it is going to continue, but that would require changing the ethos of parkrun at a fundamental level.
He'll change his mind... restrictions are here to stay... there might be restrictions in 10 years time.
Maybe. Maybe not. It's all conjecture at this point.
Once they do the maths and realise the costs involved in having gatherings inside and outside bars, venues and pubs and how the tax revenue doesn't make up for that, you'll see that there will be plenty of restrictions... Covid or not... we'll learn to live with restrictions, which is probably a good thing in an overpopulated world
He'll change his mind... restrictions are here to stay... there might be restrictions in 10 years time.
Maybe. Maybe not. It's all conjecture at this point.
Once they do the maths and realise the costs involved in having gatherings inside and outside bars, venues and pubs and how the tax revenue doesn't make up for that, you'll see that there will be plenty of restrictions... Covid or not... we'll learn to live with restrictions, which is probably a good thing in an overpopulated world
All varieties of pandemic die out in time, along with the temporary measures put in place to control them. This one will be no different. In two years' time, there will be little remaining of any of the measures currently in place. Life will get back to normal eventually, no matter how much you might wish it were not so.
Is there points depending on the number of pieces?And AAA (alternative aspect acheivement) points if you do the jigsaw upside down?
Very interesting article here;That is the opinion of one non expert writer. The example of an infected bar tender infecting lots of people he served by “talking to them” ignores the more obvious fact that people were drinking from glasses he had his infected paws on. Peer reviewed papers by experts are the place to go. If vigorous exhalations were the main cause wearing masks would simply solve it and we could go back to normal.
https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/
If this exercise in citizen science turns out to be true then to summarise; C19 doesn't seem to spread so much by touching door handles, packaging or even by sitting next to a C19 carrier in a quiet bus, train or plane.
It mainly spreads by people breathing in each others faces; singing, ordering drinks in noisy bars, air kissing at social events, talking loud and close to partially deaf old people, and crucially for Audax (and Parkrun) being downwind of somebody breathing heavily.
The Guangzhou restaurant example, where diners downstream of the aircon caught it, means the focus will be on limiting social activities where people might catch each others' vigorous exhalations.
- and I guess that'll be seen by society (and insurers) to include groups of cyclists :(
Very interesting article here;That is the opinion of one non expert writer. The example of an infected bar tender infecting lots of people he served by “talking to them” ignores the more obvious fact that people were drinking from glasses he had his infected paws on. Peer reviewed papers by experts are the place to go. If vigorous exhalations were the main cause wearing masks would simply solve it and we could go back to normal.
https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/
If this exercise in citizen science turns out to be true then to summarise; C19 doesn't seem to spread so much by touching door handles, packaging or even by sitting next to a C19 carrier in a quiet bus, train or plane.
It mainly spreads by people breathing in each others faces; singing, ordering drinks in noisy bars, air kissing at social events, talking loud and close to partially deaf old people, and crucially for Audax (and Parkrun) being downwind of somebody breathing heavily.
The Guangzhou restaurant example, where diners downstream of the aircon caught it, means the focus will be on limiting social activities where people might catch each others' vigorous exhalations.
- and I guess that'll be seen by society (and insurers) to include groups of cyclists :(
Edit: and even if it turns out the predominant transmission is not via fomites then being in the open air is the safest place to be.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
I will put my faith in papers written by scientists and checked by scientists. I am not sure what you mean by “where not only fomites but droplets will be covering everything in sight”. The fomites in a supermarket will be trolley handles and baked bean tins.Very interesting article here;That is the opinion of one non expert writer. The example of an infected bar tender infecting lots of people he served by “talking to them” ignores the more obvious fact that people were drinking from glasses he had his infected paws on. Peer reviewed papers by experts are the place to go. If vigorous exhalations were the main cause wearing masks would simply solve it and we could go back to normal.
https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/
If this exercise in citizen science turns out to be true then to summarise; C19 doesn't seem to spread so much by touching door handles, packaging or even by sitting next to a C19 carrier in a quiet bus, train or plane.
It mainly spreads by people breathing in each others faces; singing, ordering drinks in noisy bars, air kissing at social events, talking loud and close to partially deaf old people, and crucially for Audax (and Parkrun) being downwind of somebody breathing heavily.
The Guangzhou restaurant example, where diners downstream of the aircon caught it, means the focus will be on limiting social activities where people might catch each others' vigorous exhalations.
- and I guess that'll be seen by society (and insurers) to include groups of cyclists :(
Edit: and even if it turns out the predominant transmission is not via fomites then being in the open air is the safest place to be.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
I would not put much faith in peer reviewed papers at all. 90% of published research in my personal experience has major flaws. Epidemiology papers particularly are blinded often by a lack of actual medical knowledge.
All of this discussion about droplets and the 2m distance is pure guesswork based on no science about dosage required for infection, etc. The data on the multi metre trail from cyclists is true (technically) but ignores the hole behind each rider, and the degree of dispersion leading to a low droplet density. Drafting properly is probably extremely safe.
I would happily walk next to someone outside on a normal windy day but worry much more in a supermarket, where not only fomites but droplets will be covering everything in sight!
I thought it was a ridiculous statement as most people do not end up in hospital with covid, in fact many don't even realise they have it, while everyone with ebola ends up in hospital. Infection fatality of covid is less than 1% ebola is more like 50%. Any country showing greater than 1% is not detecting all their cases, look at Iceland figures where they tested everyone.He'll change his mind... restrictions are here to stay... there might be restrictions in 10 years time.
Maybe. Maybe not. It's all conjecture at this point.
Once they do the maths and realise the costs involved in having gatherings inside and outside bars, venues and pubs and how the tax revenue doesn't make up for that, you'll see that there will be plenty of restrictions... Covid or not... we'll learn to live with restrictions, which is probably a good thing in an overpopulated world
All varieties of pandemic die out in time, along with the temporary measures put in place to control them. This one will be no different. In two years' time, there will be little remaining of any of the measures currently in place. Life will get back to normal eventually, no matter how much you might wish it were not so.
HIV never went away, we just learned to live with it... the kind of free sex that was common in 60s and 70s has long gone.
I was reading today that Covid 19 has the same hospital death rate of Ebola, which is quite sobering
I thought it was a ridiculous statement as most people do not end up in hospital with covid, in fact many don't even realise they have it, while everyone with ebola ends up in hospital. Infection fatality of covid is less than 1% ebola is more like 50%. Any country showing greater than 1% is not detecting all their cases, look at Iceland figures where they tested everyone.
Glad to know that the fomites are so discerning.Fomite is the technical word for an object droplets might have landed on and be conveyed to someone else. The checkout conveyor is another fine example of a fomite.
I'll avoid touching baked-bean cans and trolley handles and carry on licking the checkout conveyor.
Glad to know that the fomites are so discerning.Fomite is the technical word for an object droplets might have landed on and be conveyed to someone else. The checkout conveyor is another fine example of a fomite.
I'll avoid touching baked-bean cans and trolley handles and carry on licking the checkout conveyor.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
The best current estimate for CFR for covid-19 is 1.38%
The best current estimate for CFR for EVD is 82.8%
I would personally rather not be infected by either, but given the choice I would go with sars-cov-2
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
I thought it was a ridiculous statement as most people do not end up in hospital with covid, in fact many don't even realise they have it, while everyone with ebola ends up in hospital. Infection fatality of covid is less than 1% ebola is more like 50%. Any country showing greater than 1% is not detecting all their cases, look at Iceland figures where they tested everyone.
I guess what it shows is not that the mortality rate is similar to Ebola, but that if you are unlucky enough to end up in hospital, then the treatment available is very limited, in the same ballpark as diseases we consider "untreatable".
Some mortality rates don't stack up, Singapore has 0.1%, which by all means seems very low. Russia has 1% but we all know it's not true... might be tempted to believe in Iceland numbers, if their population wasn't less than that of Leicester
I thought it was a ridiculous statement as most people do not end up in hospital with covid, in fact many don't even realise they have it, while everyone with ebola ends up in hospital. Infection fatality of covid is less than 1% ebola is more like 50%. Any country showing greater than 1% is not detecting all their cases, look at Iceland figures where they tested everyone.
I guess what it shows is not that the mortality rate is similar to Ebola, but that if you are unlucky enough to end up in hospital, then the treatment available is very limited, in the same ballpark as diseases we consider "untreatable".
Some mortality rates don't stack up, Singapore has 0.1%, which by all means seems very low. Russia has 1% but we all know it's not true... might be tempted to believe in Iceland numbers, if their population wasn't less than that of Leicester
Singapore has had a recent explosion in cases without time for them to be resolved one way or the other.
Sorry it should have been not only fomites from direct contact but also from droplet spray. My poor typing prior to coffee.I will put my faith in papers written by scientists and checked by scientists. I am not sure what you mean by “where not only fomites but droplets will be covering everything in sight”. The fomites in a supermarket will be trolley handles and baked bean tins.Very interesting article here;That is the opinion of one non expert writer. The example of an infected bar tender infecting lots of people he served by “talking to them” ignores the more obvious fact that people were drinking from glasses he had his infected paws on. Peer reviewed papers by experts are the place to go. If vigorous exhalations were the main cause wearing masks would simply solve it and we could go back to normal.
https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/
If this exercise in citizen science turns out to be true then to summarise; C19 doesn't seem to spread so much by touching door handles, packaging or even by sitting next to a C19 carrier in a quiet bus, train or plane.
It mainly spreads by people breathing in each others faces; singing, ordering drinks in noisy bars, air kissing at social events, talking loud and close to partially deaf old people, and crucially for Audax (and Parkrun) being downwind of somebody breathing heavily.
The Guangzhou restaurant example, where diners downstream of the aircon caught it, means the focus will be on limiting social activities where people might catch each others' vigorous exhalations.
- and I guess that'll be seen by society (and insurers) to include groups of cyclists :(
Edit: and even if it turns out the predominant transmission is not via fomites then being in the open air is the safest place to be.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
I would not put much faith in peer reviewed papers at all. 90% of published research in my personal experience has major flaws. Epidemiology papers particularly are blinded often by a lack of actual medical knowledge.
All of this discussion about droplets and the 2m distance is pure guesswork based on no science about dosage required for infection, etc. The data on the multi metre trail from cyclists is true (technically) but ignores the hole behind each rider, and the degree of dispersion leading to a low droplet density. Drafting properly is probably extremely safe.
I would happily walk next to someone outside on a normal windy day but worry much more in a supermarket, where not only fomites but droplets will be covering everything in sight!
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
There are multiple other examples why we should not believe scientists.
You believe the link between h pylori and peptic ulcer was proven by a non scientist ? Science evolves, that is its essence.Sorry it should have been not only fomites from direct contact but also from droplet spray. My poor typing prior to coffee.I will put my faith in papers written by scientists and checked by scientists. I am not sure what you mean by “where not only fomites but droplets will be covering everything in sight”. The fomites in a supermarket will be trolley handles and baked bean tins.Very interesting article here;That is the opinion of one non expert writer. The example of an infected bar tender infecting lots of people he served by “talking to them” ignores the more obvious fact that people were drinking from glasses he had his infected paws on. Peer reviewed papers by experts are the place to go. If vigorous exhalations were the main cause wearing masks would simply solve it and we could go back to normal.
https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/
If this exercise in citizen science turns out to be true then to summarise; C19 doesn't seem to spread so much by touching door handles, packaging or even by sitting next to a C19 carrier in a quiet bus, train or plane.
It mainly spreads by people breathing in each others faces; singing, ordering drinks in noisy bars, air kissing at social events, talking loud and close to partially deaf old people, and crucially for Audax (and Parkrun) being downwind of somebody breathing heavily.
The Guangzhou restaurant example, where diners downstream of the aircon caught it, means the focus will be on limiting social activities where people might catch each others' vigorous exhalations.
- and I guess that'll be seen by society (and insurers) to include groups of cyclists :(
Edit: and even if it turns out the predominant transmission is not via fomites then being in the open air is the safest place to be.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
I would not put much faith in peer reviewed papers at all. 90% of published research in my personal experience has major flaws. Epidemiology papers particularly are blinded often by a lack of actual medical knowledge.
All of this discussion about droplets and the 2m distance is pure guesswork based on no science about dosage required for infection, etc. The data on the multi metre trail from cyclists is true (technically) but ignores the hole behind each rider, and the degree of dispersion leading to a low droplet density. Drafting properly is probably extremely safe.
I would happily walk next to someone outside on a normal windy day but worry much more in a supermarket, where not only fomites but droplets will be covering everything in sight!
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Your faith in scientists is touching but naive. Scientists are no more right than non-scientists in many areas. What the pandemic has shown is that the paradigm even most scientists have been using has been incorrect. Scientists are usually wedded to a single view of the world on which they have built there career, grant funding, etc.
Recent examples would be treatment of stomach ulcers, where i heard the then senior upper GI surgeon state that ranitidine would be useful for 5 patients per year in the West of Scotland. he could not accept a medical treatment for stomach ulcers.
Then there was the idea that a bacteria causes stomach ulcers!! How stupid. Until it was proved right.
IBM thought we needed was it 1000 computers in the world? They no longer exist
Elon Musk and electric vehicles
In my own field, Needle Aponeurotomy for Dupuytrens and then collagenase for Dupuytrens. Both of which a senior Academic surgeon threatened to report me to the GMC for popularising.
There are multiple other examples why we should not believe scientists.
There are multiple other examples why we should not believe scientists.
It's a short step from there to believing utter boxxocks...
Bear in mind there are people in high placed jobs who think maybe it's all as simple as cleansing the body by injecting a disinfectant
Who do you believe then? The mad scientist who wants to treat everybody with chloroquine?
I thought it was a ridiculous statement as most people do not end up in hospital with covid, in fact many don't even realise they have it, while everyone with ebola ends up in hospital. Infection fatality of covid is less than 1% ebola is more like 50%. Any country showing greater than 1% is not detecting all their cases, look at Iceland figures where they tested everyone.
I guess what it shows is not that the mortality rate is similar to Ebola, but that if you are unlucky enough to end up in hospital, then the treatment available is very limited, in the same ballpark as diseases we consider "untreatable".
You haven't answered any of the questions though, you just bring up cases of poor research papers... of which there are many... so what? That's why you need a good body of evidence before taking any decision, rather than running around like a headless chicken after every contradictory report...
they are no more trustworthy in the current new environment than anybody else
Well he is not anybody of course. He is an absolutely brilliant, natural research genius.they are no more trustworthy in the current new environment than anybody else
What, not even Donald Trump?
Well he is not anybody of course. He is an absolutely brilliant, natural research genius.they are no more trustworthy in the current new environment than anybody else
What, not even Donald Trump?
You haven't answered any of the questions though, you just bring up cases of poor research papers... of which there are many... so what? That's why you need a good body of evidence before taking any decision, rather than running around like a headless chicken after every contradictory report...
What questions? Who to believe? Make your own mind up. This started because Dave said he would trust scientists. I was trying to point out that they are no more trustworthy in the current new environment than anybody else. The article on superspreaders I think started this first followed by my comments about aerosol droplets, and minimum virulent dose.
Like almost everything there is no easy answer. The government is currently parroting the mantra that they are following the science. Which Science? Ours, the Germans, the Swedes?
What looks to be indefinite (subject to vaccine) social distancing measures, I don't see any calendar events in the UK being okayed any time soon. Might be different for overseas and here's hoping that DIY's are allowed, if not then I have my trainer and Zwift. ::-)
What looks to be indefinite (subject to vaccine) social distancing measures, I don't see any calendar events in the UK being okayed any time soon. Might be different for overseas and here's hoping that DIY's are allowed, if not then I have my trainer and Zwift. ::-)
There's always the intermediate option of Bike Rides™, which are likely to be permissible sooner (in as much as it isn't already).
If we foresee a future of compulsory social distancing without lockdown (in as much as we have "lockdown" anyway) for the next couple of years, then it's possible to see DIYs and solo perms happening and possibly small calendar events. The difficulty will be cafes – the ones that survive lockdown will be running at maybe one third capacity if there's to be at least 2m between customers.
If we foresee a future of compulsory social distancing without lockdown (in as much as we have "lockdown" anyway) for the next couple of years, then it's possible to see DIYs and solo perms happening and possibly small calendar events. The difficulty will be cafes – the ones that survive lockdown will be running at maybe one third capacity if there's to be at least 2m between customers.
The thing with perms and DIY is that it's a small group of hardy AUK riders who do a lot of them (probably a few hundred members). They would not justify a membership of 8,000 and of course they would be of no use to non AUK members...
In other words, without calendar events, AUK wouldn't survive for very long
I very much doubt calendar events will be banned forever, if so then the fate of AUK is the least of the world's problems.
I take the completely opposite view...
.... get rid of imbeciles like Trump, Salvini, Bolsonaro... Orban, Aung San Suu Kyi........
If such a change were to happen they audax uk will need to look at the handling of DIYs as I suspect the workload would exceed the capacity of the current arrangements withe more volunteers with smaller areas each or some sort of automated approvals. I wonder what percentage of DOY submissions are rejected.If we foresee a future of compulsory social distancing without lockdown (in as much as we have "lockdown" anyway) for the next couple of years, then it's possible to see DIYs and solo perms happening and possibly small calendar events. The difficulty will be cafes – the ones that survive lockdown will be running at maybe one third capacity if there's to be at least 2m between customers.
The thing with perms and DIY is that it's a small group of hardy AUK riders who do a lot of them (probably a few hundred members). They would not justify a membership of 8,000 and of course they would be of no use to non AUK members...
In other words, without calendar events, AUK wouldn't survive for very long
AUK, and its members, would just adapt if this is going to be a long term situation. If DIYs/Perms became allowed then faced with no chance of calendar events returning, and not much other choice, some of the people who used to do them would come across to doing DIYs/Perms. Obviously not everyone as many do Audax for the companionship and social aspect but enough for something to be needed to handle the validation/etc until such a time that calendar events can restart.
I very much doubt calendar events will be banned forever, if so then the fate of AUK is the least of the world's problems.
audax uk will need to look at the handling of DIYs as I suspect the workload would exceed the capacity of the current arrangements
If such a change were to happen they audax uk will need to look at the handling of DIYs as I suspect the workload would exceed the capacity of the current arrangements withe more volunteers with smaller areas each or some sort of automated approvals. I wonder what percentage of DOY submissions are rejected.If we foresee a future of compulsory social distancing without lockdown (in as much as we have "lockdown" anyway) for the next couple of years, then it's possible to see DIYs and solo perms happening and possibly small calendar events. The difficulty will be cafes – the ones that survive lockdown will be running at maybe one third capacity if there's to be at least 2m between customers.
The thing with perms and DIY is that it's a small group of hardy AUK riders who do a lot of them (probably a few hundred members). They would not justify a membership of 8,000 and of course they would be of no use to non AUK members...
In other words, without calendar events, AUK wouldn't survive for very long
AUK, and its members, would just adapt if this is going to be a long term situation. If DIYs/Perms became allowed then faced with no chance of calendar events returning, and not much other choice, some of the people who used to do them would come across to doing DIYs/Perms. Obviously not everyone as many do Audax for the companionship and social aspect but enough for something to be needed to handle the validation/etc until such a time that calendar events can restart.
I very much doubt calendar events will be banned forever, if so then the fate of AUK is the least of the world's problems.
But it won't happen, because only those who are interested in awards and points do Perms and especially DIY... that number won't change. It's a minority.
I for one, have done a few DIY over the past couple of years because I was chasing an AAA award... done that, no longer interested = no more DIY... why should I pay 4 pounds and fill a form to go for a ride?
But it won't happen, because only those who are interested in awards and points do Perms and especially DIY... that number won't change. It's a minority.
I for one, have done a few DIY over the past couple of years because I was chasing an AAA award... done that, no longer interested = no more DIY... why should I pay 4 pounds and fill a form to go for a ride?
If you extrapolate from a single negative case then sure.
But in reality I'm guessing quite a few people are competitive enough (in a non-competitive hobby) to want to pay for validation of their rides, and AUK will almost certainly be able fulfill that given its volunteer run nature.
In other words, without calendar events, AUK wouldn't survive for very long
RTTY accounts for a reasonable churn in DIYs/Perms, especially in the winter months where many people don't have suitable local events (or the local event happens to fall on the wrong weekend, etc).
AUK started as hundreds, it can quite happily carry on as hundreds of people. It doesn't need thousands of active members (assuming calendar events can't be put back on, which is what we're talking about).
RTTY accounts for a reasonable churn in DIYs/Perms, especially in the winter months where many people don't have suitable local events (or the local event happens to fall on the wrong weekend, etc).
AUK started as hundreds, it can quite happily carry on as hundreds of people. It doesn't need thousands of active members (assuming calendar events can't be put back on, which is what we're talking about).
It probably didn't need thousands of members before the royal IT project, now it probably does to avoid bankruptcy? Doesn't the management of the site alone absorb 5 figures off the budget?
Anyway, the moral is that if 540 calendar events become zero for a sustained period of time, then it's game over, like it or not
It probably didn't need thousands of members before the royal IT project, now it probably does to avoid bankruptcy? Doesn't the management of the site alone absorb 5 figures off the budget?
Anecdata, but I doubt I’m alone. A lack of free weekends means I don’t ride that many events. A stock birthday present for me is a long weekend away to ride. Often a tour. I have some perm cards in a drawer, but a date to aim at is useful to me. If tours remain unavailable for then a perm might work instead, if I attach a date to it.
Assuming any easing still limits numbers, distance travelled to participate and sleep control arrangements what else could AUK do to attract entrants to events rather than the traditional highlights? Given that some members are more vulnerable, and so might want to limit contact even if small calendar events can be run, what could AUK do to enable them to participate? Some ideas:
Take the arrow / dart idea and modify it. Make it out and back or a triangle starting and finishing at home. Use cafes, or calendar controls or well known hills as the points that aren’t home to allow some low key meeting of others and a sense of common experience. Have a date to aim at, and add to the shared thing.
Make “photo of self, bike and signpost” a standard control type, for low contact rides.
Build a less gruelling alternative to RRTY. Shorter rides in winter maybe. They could average to 200 a month. Or fit into daylight at 15km/h. Though then the Scots get really short winter rides and really long summer rides :demon:
Some interesting ideas...
For calendar events, I would add a "pick up and go" type start, where you pick up your card, sign what time you start on a sheet (or on the card itself) and set off without having to wait around for the official "depart". The window can be an hour or two wide, depending on how busy the event is.
Particularly suitable for BP and shorter BR, maybe less so for the longer events, but I don't expect the latter to resume any time soon
a question:
if i happen to ride an overseas audax (or the whole series), would it/they get validated by auk once it gets going again?
(not all countries suspended audax riding)
RTTY accounts for a reasonable churn in DIYs/Perms, especially in the winter months where many people don't have suitable local events (or the local event happens to fall on the wrong weekend, etc).
AUK started as hundreds, it can quite happily carry on as hundreds of people. It doesn't need thousands of active members (assuming calendar events can't be put back on, which is what we're talking about).
It probably didn't need thousands of members before the royal IT project, now it probably does to avoid bankruptcy? Doesn't the management of the site alone absorb 5 figures off the budget?
Anyway, the moral is that if 540 calendar events become zero for a sustained period of time, then it's game over, like it or not
It's tempting to believe that national sporting bodies have some special standing but, by and large, they are just private clubs or companies carrying out their sporting and commercial activities. Generally, the main thing that they have got is an agreement from an international body giving them monopoly rights on international competition in their territory - and an installed base of users, commercial contracts, etc. But someone willing to spend the money to create a parallel organisation can do so (eg Kerry Packer's cricket operation in the seventies)
There is nothing to stop anyone setting up a long distance cycling club tomorrow and organising virtual events, solo events and, in time, calendar events - and giving their validations to them. What they couldn't do is provide a means of entry to PBP - without replacing AUK as ACP's UK partner.
It's tempting to believe that national sporting bodies have some special standing but, by and large, they are just private clubs or companies carrying out their sporting and commercial activities. Generally, the main thing that they have got is an agreement from an international body giving them monopoly rights on international competition in their territory - and an installed base of users, commercial contracts, etc. But someone willing to spend the money to create a parallel organisation can do so (eg Kerry Packer's cricket operation in the seventies)
There is nothing to stop anyone setting up a long distance cycling club tomorrow and organising virtual events, solo events and, in time, calendar events - and giving their validations to them. What they couldn't do is provide a means of entry to PBP - without replacing AUK as ACP's UK partner.
It looks a little like CTT may be struggling.
https://www.easyfundraising.org.uk/causes/cyclingtimetrials/
Absolutely the right message from the Board: can't think of any way it could be improved, well done!We can't really carp about something that doesn't really say anything. ;)
Await the carping....
Absolutely the right message from the Board: can't think of any way it could be improved, well done!We can't really carp about something that doesn't really say anything. ;)
Await the carping....
Absolutely the right message from the Board: can't think of any way it could be improved, well done!We can't really carp about something that doesn't really say anything. ;)
Await the carping....
Disagree I think it tells us quite a lotAbsolutely the right message from the Board: can't think of any way it could be improved, well done!We can't really carp about something that doesn't really say anything. ;)
Await the carping....
We can carp on about the fact that some people think it doesn't really say anything.
On (1) what do people think are the changes to "relevant guidance and legislation" which are expected/being looked for? I can't think of any guideline or legislation applying to England (?and NI) which proscribes riding or implies a distance limit (even implicitly), provided riders set out from and return home at the start and end (of the day). I suggest a 6 rider limit is specified, the number increasing in line with current UK (applies to England) 'meeting in groups and SD'ing' guidelines.
What am I missing? What is being waited for?
This means you must:...
- stay at home as much as possible
“Stay at home as much as possible” has always been the headline. The strictures are being gradually reduced. For example tennis was not possible. Then the guidance was relaxed so that singles was allowed. Then the guidance was relaxed further and doubles is now allowed. You could obviously say no tennis should be played as that is not staying at home as much as possible.On (1) what do people think are the changes to "relevant guidance and legislation" which are expected/being looked for? I can't think of any guideline or legislation applying to England (?and NI) which proscribes riding or implies a distance limit (even implicitly), provided riders set out from and return home at the start and end (of the day). I suggest a 6 rider limit is specified, the number increasing in line with current UK (applies to England) 'meeting in groups and SD'ing' guidelines.
What am I missing? What is being waited for?
I'm guessing probably a change to:-QuoteThis means you must:...
- stay at home as much as possible
that is still front and centre on https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus (well it is still there as of 5.20pm on 5th June 2020).
[ Cue the same old discussions about "unlimited exercise" again. Round and round we go... ]
From my perspective, in terms of risk I would put a 200km solo ride below tennis and way below visiting the supermarket.
I do hope you never slide on snow or ice in the street - that is still illegal in London.
I'm guessing probably a change to:-QuoteThis means you must:...
- stay at home as much as possible
that is still front and centre on https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus (well it is still there as of 5.20pm on 5th June 2020).
[ Cue the same old discussions about "unlimited exercise" again. Round and round we go... ]
It really is not that difficult to be self sufficient for 200km, and for much longer if you have water provision. If I needed rescuing it would be by a member of my household. Perhaps rescue provision should be a requirement. Also maybe a register of auk members who are happy to allow access to outside taps.From my perspective, in terms of risk I would put a 200km solo ride below tennis and way below visiting the supermarket.
But riding a 200km Perm might be considered equivalent to visiting a supermarket, or at least a small village convenience store, unless you carry all your food and drink and don't need any till receipts. That's before considering any rescue scenarios if the bike (or the rider) can't complete. I heard today that the R value in the Northwest is a touch higher than 1, so we've some way to go yet before easing things off locally in my view.
It's pretty much been confirmed that the two walkers that were lifted on Beinn a' Chroin were charged with "culpable and reckless conduct", were lifted for the 60-mile journey as much as going up the hill in jeans and trainers.But not charged under the coronavirus (Scotland) act ? If they had been properly equipped and/or not needed rescuing, would they still have been charged ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-52892409
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52924865
Seems it's a bit like our Breach of the Peace charge that's well known to be used to fill in gaps when people are beyond taking the piss.
Irish and English laws are a bit different.
The R number is up in several regions....The R number should be going up in all regions. Easing restrictions increases R. Tightening restrictions reduces R. On top of that the effective R is reduced by the proportion of people who have become immune or dead.
It's pretty hard to have a clear position when the position isn't clear. I think it's a pretty good statement.Indeed.
It's pretty much been confirmed that the two walkers that were lifted on Beinn a' Chroin were charged with "culpable and reckless conduct", were lifted for the 60-mile journey as much as going up the hill in jeans and trainers.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-52892409
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52924865
Seems it's a bit like our Breach of the Peace charge that's well known to be used to fill in gaps when people are beyond taking the piss.
Irish and English laws are a bit different.
It's pretty much been confirmed that the two walkers that were lifted on Beinn a' Chroin were charged with "culpable and reckless conduct", were lifted for the 60-mile journey as much as going up the hill in jeans and trainers.But not charged under the coronavirus (Scotland) act ? If they had been properly equipped and/or not needed rescuing, would they still have been charged ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-52892409
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52924865
Seems it's a bit like our Breach of the Peace charge that's well known to be used to fill in gaps when people are beyond taking the piss.
Irish and English laws are a bit different.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
There is also the fact that (in England at least) you are under no obligation to give your identity to a police officer unless he has reasonable suspicion that you have committed an offence. Without your home address it is difficult to enforce non local travel offences unless you do something else potentially illegal. I think most of the covid charges have been related to gatherings rather than travel.It's pretty much been confirmed that the two walkers that were lifted on Beinn a' Chroin were charged with "culpable and reckless conduct", were lifted for the 60-mile journey as much as going up the hill in jeans and trainers.But not charged under the coronavirus (Scotland) act ? If they had been properly equipped and/or not needed rescuing, would they still have been charged ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-52892409
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52924865
Seems it's a bit like our Breach of the Peace charge that's well known to be used to fill in gaps when people are beyond taking the piss.
Irish and English laws are a bit different.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
That wouldn't have come to the attention of MR or the Polis.
The later were turning people away from the Rest and Be Thankful the same day and in bits of the Trosachs; but the nature of the charge means it can be used if they feel they can use it for the purpose (as with BotP).
If you don't draw attention to yourself there's less chance of it becoming a problem.
It's pretty much been confirmed that the two walkers that were lifted on Beinn a' Chroin were charged with "culpable and reckless conduct", were lifted for the 60-mile journey as much as going up the hill in jeans and trainers.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-52892409
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52924865
Seems it's a bit like our Breach of the Peace charge that's well known to be used to fill in gaps when people are beyond taking the piss.
Irish and English laws are a bit different.
The police can only enforce law though not guidance. Since Killin MRT do not publish incident reports (like other MRT) it is not known whether trainers and jeans played any part in the need for rescue. Trainers are perfectly fine for going up hills, and jeans are fine in good weather. Be interesting to see how this goes once it reaches court.
There is also the fact that (in England at least) you are under no obligation to give your identity to a police officer unless he has reasonable suspicion that you have committed an offence. Without your home address it is difficult to enforce non local travel offences unless you do something else potentially illegal. I think most of the covid charges have been related to gatherings rather than travel.
I didn't read it like that - it's all nations at once. I think:
If they are considering opening up DIY's/Perms first, and on a nation by nation basis, where does that leave RRtY?
We agreed that, in principle, as Audax UK, our preference would be act on a “one nation” basis, with any rule updates taking effect in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man at the same time. That, we feel, would be the simplest and fairest course of action.
From my perspective, in terms of risk I would put a 200km solo ride below tennis and way below visiting the supermarket.
I don’t have access to the auk forum though I admit I have only had a half hearted attempt. This thread exists. It seems bizarre to say only people with one point of view should post on it and that people with a different point of view should post elsewhere. To describe my post as ranting and that I am not bold enough to post in my own name is insulting.From my perspective, in terms of risk I would put a 200km solo ride below tennis and way below visiting the supermarket.
And others (including some of the AUK board it would seem) disagree. And that is what ends us with the current position of disagreement.
If you disagree with it I suggest you take it to the AUK forum but, as I've seen so far, people are far less likely to do that under their real name than just rant here semi-anonymously. Some have made the bold move of posting on the AUK forum and discussion is all the better for it.
DaveF (and other AUK members!)Ah, well it does appear harder for me. I have tried using my membership number, my email address, the forgot my password link, the register tab all to no avail. I have even taken the extraordinary step of reading the help.
You are more than welcome to discuss this here with me and Greenbank! But I would encourage you onto the AUK forum, as it's the only place that board members* are responding to our questions.
(They claim to be reading other stuff, but as they don't respond to any of it, who knows?? They certainly seem deaf to all the members saying GPS perms should have been running for weeks now.)
See you over there? It's no harder than YACF to log into! :)
*apart from Ambassador Redlight!
It seems bizarre to say only people with one point of view should post on it and that people with a different point of view should post elsewhere. To describe my post as ranting and that I am not bold enough to post in my own name is insulting.
After replying and quoting my post your sentence about “ranting” uses the word “you” twice. I therefore read it as being aimed at me. If it was not and I misunderstood, please accept my apologies.It seems bizarre to say only people with one point of view should post on it and that people with a different point of view should post elsewhere. To describe my post as ranting and that I am not bold enough to post in my own name is insulting.
As mattc has pointed out, that's not what I said. Nor did I accuse you specifically of anything that you think I did.
This place seems to be almost an echo chamber for people who disagree with the AUK board's stance and that is not really reflected in actual posts over at the AUK forum. (Yes, members of the board may read this place, but they're very unlikely to respond here.)
Despite agreeing with the board's stance I'm trying to help people who disagree with it to get their message across, yet this is somehow seen as me trying to stifle debate. To make it clear, feel free to discuss anything you want here, I'm not suggesting you don't, but if you really want to get your view across then ALSO do it on the AUK forum.
I would encourage you onto the AUK forum, as it's the only place that board members* are responding to our questions.
(They claim to be reading other stuff, but as they don't respond to any of it, who knows?? They certainly seem deaf to all the members saying GPS perms should have been running for weeks now.)
"competitors " ?? :o:P :facepalm: Can't get the quality of plagiarism nowadays, Matt.
From my perspective, in terms of risk I would put a 200km solo ride below tennis and way below visiting the supermarket.
And others (including some of the AUK board it would seem) disagree. And that is what ends us with the current position of disagreement.
If you disagree with it I suggest you take it to the AUK forum but, as I've seen so far, people are far less likely to do that under their real name than just rant here semi-anonymously. Some have made the bold move of posting on the AUK forum and discussion is all the better for it.
I regularly ride to places like Aberfeldy, Pitlochry, Alyth and the absolute arse end of nowhere* between them on DIYs, amazingly the arse end of nowhere has a shop and a couple of pubs. If I was to be an asymptomatic carrier of the virus and went into that shop, I've potentially just infected the entirety of that village.When you submit your gpx to audax U.K. for validation if there any stops of 1 minute or more within 50m of one of those prohibited co-ops then all your historic points will be stripped and you will be banned from owning mudguards for life. On calendar events in addition to the illegal stop zone violations and group riding digital checks there will be the added humiliation of your fellow riders spotting you cheating. Coupled with the random spot checks to check that you are carrying the mandated food and water levels at all points I think regulated riding should be the way forward. It is this unregulated “free riding” that you partake in that should be banned.
It's a 30 mile ambulance journey to Dundee to/from there, although the responding ambulances that would probably have to take 1.4 of the village to hopsital would respond from either Perth or Pitlochry.
Tayside's relatively high number of cases are mostly in Dundee and Perth, the lockdown came in early enough for many remoter places to dodge the bullet, look at Skye as another example of that, not a single case on the island until care home workers took it to Portree. (and a very low case count in Highland in general.)
Of the other 3 places mentioned they have big co-ops so the locals didn't really need to travel to Perth, their biggest risk was probably the co-ops delivery drivers, care staff and health staff and errants arriving from Perth.
* Kirkmichael
The 60%ish of cases being entirely asymptomatic renders advice/restrictions based on how people feel pretty useless.No it doesn't. Standard risk-mitigation:
The 60%ish of cases being entirely asymptomatic renders advice/restrictions based on how people feel pretty useless.No it doesn't. Standard risk-mitigation:
if you can reduce a risk by 40%, you do so. It doesn't matter that you can't eliminate it completely. (see also: the 2metre rule, or speed limits)
(2ry reason - carriers with symptoms are MUCH more likely to spread it, due to the coughing-n-sneezing. This is how the virus spreads, primarily).
The 60%ish of cases being entirely asymptomatic renders advice/restrictions based on how people feel pretty useless.No it doesn't. Standard risk-mitigation:
if you can reduce a risk by 40%, you do so. It doesn't matter that you can't eliminate it completely. (see also: the 2metre rule, or speed limits)
over here (france) they're saying 10m between cyclists - but I've only seen a few that far apart on the roads of Brittany :facepalm:over here (UK) they're saying that 5g is spreading the virus.
If you're concerned, stay at home completely. That's if you want to?The 60%ish of cases being entirely asymptomatic renders advice/restrictions based on how people feel pretty useless.No it doesn't. Standard risk-mitigation:
if you can reduce a risk by 40%, you do so. It doesn't matter that you can't eliminate it completely. (see also: the 2metre rule, or speed limits)
You can reduce the risk by the remaining 60% if you really wanted to, but it seems some people don't want that.
The idea of contact tracing you could isolate many of those without symptoms efficiently too. Whether people who have no symptoms but get a phone call to say they should isolate actually do so is a different matter.Ons estimates 5600 new cases a day, assumng 7 days of asymptomatic/presymptomatic carriers before the body clears the virus or becomes sick thats 40000 people, and if we say 40% symptomatic that's 16000 noticeably sick people. So we can reduce the risk by 40% by isolating 16000 people, but to get the remaining 60% we have to lockdown 68000000 along with the economic damage and mental health issues. Not to mention blighting the lives of the young by lising a year of education. UN now concerned about the numbers of people likely to be pushed into extreme poverty globally by the response which is probably likely to result in more deaths, but I guess as they are not here we don't have to balance those up against the extreme lockdown response advocated with statements like we could remove all risk of we wanted to.The 60%ish of cases being entirely asymptomatic renders advice/restrictions based on how people feel pretty useless.No it doesn't. Standard risk-mitigation:
if you can reduce a risk by 40%, you do so. It doesn't matter that you can't eliminate it completely. (see also: the 2metre rule, or speed limits)
You can reduce the risk by the remaining 60% if you really wanted to, but it seems some people don't want that.
It wouldn't suprise me, Matt - I should have specified "they" being the government....Is Boris saying that 5G gives covid then ??? ??? ;DDo you have a link to the official French gov guidance on this?, all I can see is mention of 1m.
It wouldn't suprise me, Matt - I should have specified "they" being the government....Is Boris saying that 5G gives covid then ??? ??? ;DDo you have a link to the official French gov guidance on this?, all I can see is mention of 1m.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
It wouldn't suprise me, Matt - I should have specified "they" being the government....Is Boris saying that 5G gives covid then ??? ??? ;DWell who knows?? He wasn't all that great at listening to his scientists back in Feb/March. He's an educated man, but I don't think science is his strong point ...
Is 1m measured from centre to centre, or exterior to exterior?Good question. I'm surprised no-one has tried social-distancing outfits. Something like this might suit me:
Because in the case of someone who was sufficiently fat it would be possible to always be 1m, even if they were touching (but not squashed up).
Nose to nose might be a more sensible measure.
I find Lycra cycling kit at the supermarket very effective.Is 1m measured from centre to centre, or exterior to exterior?Good question. I'm surprised no-one has tried social-distancing outfits. Something like this might suit me:
Because in the case of someone who was sufficiently fat it would be possible to always be 1m, even if they were touching (but not squashed up).
Nose to nose might be a more sensible measure.
(https://live.staticflickr.com/7575/15694661090_640dd87ca7_z.jpg)