Coronavirus and Audax

[bludger]

... Nor am I presuming to be "spelling it out..." and contradicting the national strategy....

I don't like this government. As a gig economy worker and in the IWGB I am pretty attuned to how fucked up this all is for the worst off, but I haven't seen any good reason to abandon the national strategy.

[Hot Flatus]

The national strategy didnt involve banning mass events, closing pubs, schools and so on.

Now it does, starting next week.

It seems likely that the NHS will be overwhelmed and have to let people die because there are no beds for them, because more people will contract and spread the disease than they can cope with.

If you arent prepared to do your very utmost not to increase the chances of that happening, by foregoing a frankly frivolous activity then I havent really got much else to say to you.

[bludger]

Right but I am not convinced that not doing an audax will contribute to controlling the illness in any way because, as I've mentioned, wholescale 'lockdowns' may do nothing to prevent it springing up all over again. Whereas the Taiwanese have let events like audaxes go ahead while controlling the problem using targeted measures. Because in the scale of things an audax isn't a 'mass event' in any comparison to e.g. a football match.

Indeed the Taiwanese randonneurs are sticking it out right now see e.g. https://www.facebook.com/groups/taichung.info/permalink/3598285693576958/

[LMT]

My personal opinion is that Boris' inertia is dangerously complacent.

Anyone can get some statisticians to support their side of the argument.

Many people better-qualified than me are reducing at least some of their social activities.

I am over 60, as are many of my friends. Most of us have 'underlying health conditions' but I don't see myself as 'old'.

Agreed, a lack of direction and no purpose, apart from the elderly being careful and not going on any cruises.

People are becoming increasing jittery imo, that and raiding the local Sainsburys and taking N95 masks from the local hospital, when for most people this will be a bad cold if they ever caught it.

[Hot Flatus]

For 20% though it wont be. They will need hospital care, and of them 20% will need ICU care, or they die. Imagine being that doctor who has to decide who lives and who dies, and all because as a society we had not observed social distancing, hygiene, or social exclusion.  The rate of infection depends on our behaviour choices and not the virus.

[bludger]

The most dangerous virus by far is panic and disinformation. Not at all helped by businesses cashing in on the panic and using targeted facebook adverts to market 'respiratory masks' etc as a chemist near me is doing right not.

[Hot Flatus]

No it isn't. Panic means people are taking it seriously and will take action.

Glib complacency and selfishness will kill people.

[FifeingEejit]

Scottish cycling's current advice
https://www.britishcycling.org.uk/scotland/article/20200313-Scottish-Cycling-Coronavirus-COVID19-Guidance-0



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[bludger]

I am not complacent. This is a serious problem. Me and my colleagues are washing our hands so much our skin is turning red and raw. But it is best managed using a national strategy informed by epidemiology, not panicked fearmongering that could elongate or even repeat the illness.

When I gave blood this morning, the nurses commented that they are actually having to ration their handwash among their staff because of the price gouging and panic buying. In a blood donation centre. Now THAT's a problem.

[StevieB]

No one wants to cancel events, disrupt plans or see livelihoods disappear...

BUT

the reason Italy is in lockdown is because the medical facilities cannot cope, staff are having to decide who gets the ventilator and who gets to die...

The same exponential rise in infections is happening in the UK, just delayed by two weeks.

If I get poorly then that's my hard luck.

No... you need to understand the term exponential... on average, one infected person is going to infect another two in a matter of days, which means over 100 by the end of a month. And we know one or more of those people are going to die.

[LMT]

For 20% though it wont be. They will need hospital care, and of them 20% will need ICU care, or they die. Imagine being that doctor who has to decide who lives and who dies, and all because as a society we had not observed social distancing, hygiene, or social exclusion.  The rate of infection depends on our behaviour choices and not the virus.

The above is based on what?

[FifeingEejit]

For 20% though it wont be. They will need hospital care, and of them 20% will need ICU care, or they die. Imagine being that doctor who has to decide who lives and who dies, and all because as a society we had not observed social distancing, hygiene, or social exclusion.  The rate of infection depends on our behaviour choices and not the virus.

The above is based on what?

Crude stats from Wuhan.
It was hoped that poor lung health and smoking rates would mean its not as bad in Europe.  But Italian stats are similar if not worse. That's partly down to service failure.

The Chinese didn't have service failure because they locked the region down and diverted health care personell and capacity from their other regions into Wuhan.
The Italians acted too late.


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[Hot Flatus]

If I get poorly then that's my hard luck.

Unbelievable.

Me me me me me me.


It's also the hard luck of the people you infect in the days you are going around without symptoms.

[S2L]

If I get poorly then that's my hard luck.

Unbelievable.

Me me me me me me.


It's also the hard luck of the people you infect in the days you are going around without symptoms.

Wasting your time, I don't think he gets it...

[chrisbainbridge]

To be fair, I do not think anybody knows what is going to happen. The government response if successful will allow us to save a few more people.

We do not know if a short sharp awful shut down like Italy is better in the long run or the UK plan. All our experts we whistling in the dark.

[vorsprung]

To be fair, I do not think anybody knows what is going to happen. The government response if successful will allow us to save a few more people.

We do not know if a short sharp awful shut down like Italy is better in the long run or the UK plan. All our experts we whistling in the dark.

The bizarre UK gov plan of "herd immunity" has not been used as a strategy by anyone else in the world.  It has also been described as a "high risk" strategy.

Many commentators are saying that the UK strategy will be good for the economy at the cost of more people dead

Although (of course) any new crisis like this means no one knows for sure what will happen, experts do have methods for predicting likely outcomes.   Science in this area gives answers in terms of probabilities and scenarios.  This type of science is often criticised as being imprecise "whistling in the dark" by the press.  Remember, this is a press whose main mode of operation is making up stories that suit an agenda and then persuading everyone it's true

The question worth considering is: why is the UK gov doing different things to the rest of the world?

[vorsprung]

If I get poorly then that's my hard luck.

Unbelievable.

Me me me me me me.


It's also the hard luck of the people you infect in the days you are going around without symptoms.

One thing that's worth repeating is that if (let's be optimistic and not say when) the hospitals are full of ill over 60s, if younger healthier people have an RTA they are more likely to die as there will be no facilities to treat them

In other words, even if this terrible disease has no direct effect on you there are indirect effects

[Hot Flatus]

Even 3 days ago, an awful lot of people seemed to think it was no big deal.

[S2L]

Even 3 days ago, an awful lot of people seemed to think it was no big deal.

Since then, toilet paper has reappeared and then disappeared again from the shelves... things are moving fast

[Martin]

Strange how the government's advice (or their medical advisors) is so different to that offered during foot and mouth (where the human-animal transmission was only theoretical) but then this is a government that's used to lying and then sticking with it.

I can't believe Cheltenham festival went ahead but money talks louder than sense

[Davef]

Currently the infection rate is likely about 1 in 1000 people. As the rate increases as it inevitably will, then the advice as to what is appropriate will change. Economic considerations do need to be taken into account as it is tax revenues that pay for doctors and nurses in the future. I am thankful that I don’t carry the burden of making these life and death decisions. I only have to follow the advice I am given.


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[mattc]

^this

Your audax points arent, perhaps, as important as you might think they are

I think it would be a good time for AUK to suspend RRtY. It will stop people taking unnecessary risks...

J

Surely DIYs solve that problem?

[Wycombewheeler]

I would like to know what approach those on the be more cautious side want to take.

2 week lockdown? It could be possible to eliminate the dresses by everyone staying home for w weeks and then getting a clear picture on who has the disease, but after that you need to prevent any new cases coming into the country or it will return. It's also possible that following a lockdown it will flare up again from within.

The biggest flaw in their plan is the lack of testing as it hampers all strategies, you cant trave contacts  you cant isolate the correct people and impossible to know if herd immunity has been achieved. People who have been sick and self isolated do not know if they have had it and so may have to self isolate again nit knowing it it was a cold and then covid19 or covid19 and then a cold or just two colds and still able to catch covid19

The time to contain this has passed and no country introduced the required measures at that time. I.e banning all international travel/quarentining returning nationals, and then after a period this could have been reduced to only those countries with cases.

The modern world is too connected for that to have been contemplated. T
It seems to me that this virus will infect most people eventually it's too big and widespread to prevent all onward transmission now. Countries closing boarders when they already have ed a significant number of cases seems like closing the door after the horse has bolted.

Any disease that is infectious before it is detectable is nearly impossible to contain without draconian measures which the public would not have accepted at the time it would have been required

[S2L]

^this

Your audax points arent, perhaps, as important as you might think they are

I think it would be a good time for AUK to suspend RRtY. It will stop people taking unnecessary risks...

J

Surely DIYs solve that problem?

In Italy and Spain you can't cycle for sport anymore... it is perceived to be an activity that might put you at risk to end up in A&E...
Of course then it comes down to what is cycling as a sport... which basically is lycra Vs non lycra

[LittleWheelsandBig]

Me riding a bike solo isn't a risk to anybody else and traffic has dramatically reduced in the past week. I can’t see any reason for me to stop riding a DIY. Riding solo isn’t a sport, just me self-isolating on my bike.