[HAMR] Current thoughts on the record attempt?

[andyoxon]

Yeah, I know he's got money in the bank, but it might at least give him a bit of a jolt.

His intentions don't really matter: AFAICS he's ridden himself into the ground and isn't going to get any records without a stop and restart.  All he can possibly aim for now is a personal PB, which puts him on the same level as amateur racing cyclists the world over, and about as worthy of funding.

and as Steve already has a HAM'R PB (albeit sub-TmyG), there wouldn't really be much point aiming for another, unless it's to actually break the HAM'R - which it currently is.

Also thought that Steve didn't look too good in photo outside of The Bowl, but then again photos can be unreliable as a guide...

[Si S]

At the start of the attempt, there was a lot of talk about how to handle sleep debt, I don't think Kurt had any problems with that.

IIRC he's on record somewhere saying he didn't do sleep deprivation EVER.

[jochta]

Then it no longer becomes a record attempt and just a long bike ride with no need to continue to ask for voluntary contributions to pay for it IMO.

And many may agree with you (I'd probably continue to donate to that PB attempt), but the current plan seems (based on what Idai said in that interview) to be to continue to strive towards breaking the record, with a continue/stop decision to be made at the end of the month. Until I hear otherwise that's what I'll assume they're doing.

We'll also have no idea whether the decision they make is genuine or not, but I've got no reason not to trust them.

The numbers (required distance per day) are either going to remain on a knife-edge or continue to trend upwards up. No-one knows what the magic cut-off point number is. Some think it has already passed. As I said elsewhere, I think it's going to be somewhere between 219 miles per day (current required amount if Kurt adds what is expected) and 300 miles per day (where I think it's definitely toast), but I can't place exactly where it transitions from "has a chance, even if it's slim" to "no chance whatsoever".

I hope the AUK board at least get clarification if it stops being a record attempt so they can decide whether to continue to ask for voluntary donations when people enter calendar events.

[Greenbank]

The last day before the accident, and a week after the equinox.

Sorry, it's lost on me, what are you trying to show me with that graph?

What I can see is that Steve had a wobble and slipped a day behind. He knew he was going to have some good days and bad days. Without the moped incident it would have almost certainly gone off the rails very quickly after that anyway as that schedule was proving to be far too ambitious (the required distance was being achieved by riding longer than expected to make up for not being as fast as expected). He could still have been on track to beat Tommy's record though; with hindsight the ~82000 mile target may have been a bit too ambitious.

They both underestimated how well they'd start and both overestimated how well they'd do in the summer months.

[Greenbank]

I hope the AUK board at least get clarification if it stops being a record attempt so they can decide whether to continue to ask for voluntary donations when people enter calendar events.

Agreed, and that his website/FB/twitter is updated to indicate this if it becomes the case.

[Greenbank]

Also thought that Steve didn't look too good in photo outside of The Bowl, but then again photos can be unreliable as a guide...

If this is a kosher Internet diagnosis-by-photo service you're offering I'll get a photo of me later (probably after playing 5-a-side football so I may look a little more haggard than normal) and you can let me know whether I'm likely to succeed with a marathon in April.

Maybe we could collaborate and write a Tinder like app. Swipe left or right depending on whether you think this person will achieve their goal or not. Add in some adverts and...profit!

[Greenbank]

Speaking of schedules, just noticed that his two original schedules have disappeared from the website in the last 24 hours.

[simonp]

The photo doesn't look great but hard to read anything into it.

I'm more interested in what he was eating. Looked at first glance like a tube of Pringles (but wrong colour?). Surely not on his new diet though.

From Strava first 6 days of January average about 181 miles. That's added a mile to the run rate. At least it improves on December.

[Chris N]

Maybe we could collaborate and write a Tinder like app. Swipe left or right depending on whether you think this person will achieve their goal or not. Add in some adverts and...profit!

Teethgrindr?

[andyoxon]

Also thought that Steve didn't look too good in photo outside of The Bowl, but then again photos can be unreliable as a guide...

If this is a kosher Internet diagnosis-by-photo service you're offering I'll get a photo of me later (probably after playing 5-a-side football so I may look a little more haggard than normal) and you can let me know whether I'm likely to succeed with a marathon in April.

Maybe we could collaborate and write a Tinder like app. Swipe left or right depending on whether you think this person will achieve their goal or not. Add in some adverts and...profit!

   Actually just agreeing with Sgt Pluck's earlier observation...   

[Exit Stage Left]

The last day before the accident, and a week after the equinox.

Sorry, it's lost on me, what are you trying to show me with that graph?

What I can see is that Steve had a wobble and slipped a day behind. He knew he was going to have some good days and bad days. Without the moped incident it would have almost certainly gone off the rails very quickly after that anyway as that schedule was proving to be far too ambitious (the required distance was being achieved by riding longer than expected to make up for not being as fast as expected). He could still have been on track to beat Tommy's record though; with hindsight the ~82000 mile target may have been a bit too ambitious.

They both underestimated how well they'd start and both overestimated how well they'd do in the summer months.

They got involved in a head to head battle early on, with Kurt pulling out a lead in spite of his slower initial schedule. There's a graph of Steve's two schedules and Kurt's on this page. https://yacf.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=87407.0   Jan 10th

I've added both Steve's (red dashes) and Tarzan's (blue dashes) planned schedule for the year. Steve has provided two schedules depending on how things go (see his site for rationale) so I've shaded the area between them.



I hadn't realised quite how ambitious his target was compared to Tommy Godwin's and even Tarzan's. That 10 day tactical advantage that Tarzan has isn't going to count for much if they both stick to their schedules as Steve would be between 4,000 and 8,000 miles up in the last two weeks of their rides.

Over the first 9 days, Steve is on target for his more optimistic schedule 



Should get interesting once Tarzan starts tomorrow.

[Exit Stage Left]

There only seems to have been one comment from the team on the visualisations.

Team is curious - we thought that Tarzan would demonstrate his strength by putting in bigger days than Steve at the start - then begin to find it hard going later -- hare and tortoise -- just doing a few more miles than Steve each day seems to be a developing tactic.

They seem to have been surprised by Kurt 'shadowing' Steve, and also by how obvious the relative performances were in the visualisations.

[Greenbank]

They got involved in a head to head battle early on, with Kurt pulling out a lead in spite of his slower initial schedule.

I'm not able to grab images and host them, but just go to http://gicentre.org/oytt/ and click on the "Schedules" checkbox. Then look at how each of them did according to their schedules.

Kurt's "sine wave" (of his actual miles) was much flatter than he'd predicted (in other words, he did a more consistent daily mileage) and it looks like Steve was trying to emulate that with the restarted attempt (although it's comparing apples to oranges as Kurts line starts in January and Steve's restart was August).

Anyway, this was in response to you saying "Steve wasn't keeping to his schedule, Kurt was..." and, to me, the graph just doesn't show that. Kurt was keeping to his schedule in the sense that he was vastly exceeding it for the first 5 months, but then he fell behind and never caught up with it. He only caught back up with the Godwin line in December. Whilst Steve, for the first 3 months (of the first attempt), was almost spot on his schedule (which was unlikely to be sustainable for much longer).

[jsabine]

I hope the AUK board at least get clarification if it stops being a record attempt so they can decide whether to continue to ask for voluntary donations when people enter calendar events.

We are in touch with Steve's support team ...

[Sergeant Pluck]

Maybe we could collaborate and write a Tinder like app. Swipe left or right depending on whether you think this person will achieve their goal or not. Add in some adverts and...profit!

Teethgrindr?

Excellent.

[Exit Stage Left]

Greenbank is quite right, Steve and Kurt were well off their schedules by mid-February. They responded to the positive feedback from social media, and it distorted their performances.

Day 45: Kurt wins the Sebring 12hr race as a 'side project' with 253.2 miles before adding another 10 to the OYTT for good measure. Meanwhile Steve knocks out a cool 193 miles to keep his consistent pace. William records his highest daily total so far at 81 miles, but has a deficit of over 7,000 miles to make up.

I was wondering by mid-March if the information tail was wagging the dog. Big mile days brought kudos on Strava, and attention in the media.

It's interesting to think of this feedback as part of a complex control system.
These graphs are a key indicator. I wonder if an emphasis on keeping the plots smooth is in conflict with a sustainable approach. Kurt's got an IT background, so a cybernetic view might appeal to him. That might make a good title for an article, 'The ride of the cyber-men'.
Publicity is the other obvious feedback path, hopefully generating some funds for Kurt.

Steve's current performance is perhaps a reversion to the original plan. Can it work in the absence of the distortion of all that positive feedback?

[mattc]

I hope the AUK board at least get clarification if it stops being a record attempt so they can decide whether to continue to ask for voluntary donations when people enter calendar events.

We are in touch with Steve's support team ...

Speaking as an AUK member, I would favour:
 
keeping the OPTIONAL donation button,  but updated with whatever new info you can get from Team Steve.
[it would be even cooler to update it regularly with news   ]

[mattc]

Greenbank is quite right, Steve and Kurt were well off their schedules by mid-February. They responded to the positive feedback from social media, and it distorted their performances.

Day 45: Kurt wins the Sebring 12hr race as a 'side project' with 253.2 miles before adding another 10 to the OYTT for good measure. Meanwhile Steve knocks out a cool 193 miles to keep his consistent pace. William records his highest daily total so far at 81 miles, but has a deficit of over 7,000 miles to make up.

I was wondering by mid-March if the information tail was wagging the dog. Big mile days brought kudos on Strava, and attention in the media.

I dont think Steve was way off schedule. That graph shows him less than 200 miles ahead of schedule, (under 5 miles a day).
Wherease Kurt is more like 600 above after 37 days.

And you will note that Greenbank did NOT say Steve was well off his schedule.

There doesnt seem to be much right in your post, TBH. Sorry!

[Wobbly]

...but I didn't think Steve looked that great in his MK Bowl photo yesterday.

What photo? Where?

[αdαmsκι]

https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015/photos/a.1523448711237093.1073741830.1520678421514122/1658738951041401/?type=3

[Wobbly]

Ta, Mr Adamski

[Greenbank]

You don't have to be on Facebook to see Steve's FB page.

https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015

Works even in private/incognito browsing mode although you may get a CAPTCHA check to make sure you're not a robot.

[Ben T]

https://www.facebook.com/stevenabraham2015/photos/a.1523448711237093.1073741830.1520678421514122/1658738951041401/?type=3

  what's he done wrong? 

[Arry-R]

Norman Stanley Fletcher( if you ask me).  You are an habitual mile eater who accepts the miles day after day and presumably accepts the tiredness in the same casual manner! ! We therefore sentence you to the maximum for these offences! 
You will ride G Du South for the next five years.!!!
 

[Wobbly]