....Is there ever an instance when a mechanical failure can cause a mech to massively over-shift up the block?....
1) when the rear mech takes a knock (eg when parked or when the bike falls over) it will overshift subsequently
2) the low gear stop screws wear where they bear against the mech, so the derailleur slowly goes out of adjustment.
Sneakily, the last cable pull (gear 2 to gear 1) on most indexed shifters is longer than the others, i.e. long enough that it always pulls the mech into the stop screw, even if it is adjusted badly.
When servicing the bike (on a workstand), it is a good policy to pedal forwards whilst grasping the rear mech and to push it in the way which would occur if you pulled really hard on the cable and the mech is nudged sideways. If the chain unships inwards there is almost certainly a better setting for the low gear stop screw that allows low gear to be selected whilst not overshifting.
cheers